NCAA To Announce Preliminary Seedings Monday.

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jonson

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At least she has a hard deadline this time. Based on her college recruiting decision timeline, she'd probably wait until an hour before the draft to declare if she could. :p

I'm very curious to see how the top six shakes out. I'd go:

1. Oregon
2. Baylor
3. Louisville
4. UConn
5. Notre Dame
6. Mississippi State

Where ND ends up in the 4-6 range will be an interesting test of how much RPI and SOS matters vs. number of losses. I have UConn ahead of ND because of the head-to-head, but ND still has the #1 RPI and way more top-50 wins than either UConn or Miss. St.

I think ND pretty much controls its own destiny. If they win out, including winning the ACC tournament, they will get a #1. My only practical interest in the seeding reveal is the potential of twitter meltdowns if ND is higher than 6.
I think the most important aspect of the final rankings will be which teams of the 6 listed here (assuming the list doesn't change) will be one of the top 2 #1 seeds and so avoid playing any of the other 5 before the Final 4. That would be a major plus imo, since I, at least, would have a difficult time predicting who would win any given matchup among them. Geography also matters, of course, so as an Oregon fan I'd love to see them in Portland matched against anyone other than Baylor or Louisville or UCONN or Notre Dame or Mississippi State.
 

Orangutan

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Creme's bracketology article today - All eyes on NCAA selection committee as Monday's top 16 reveal nears

"On one hand, having the Irish play in Chicago would be ideal for atmosphere and attendance. On the other hand, then pairing the Irish with the Lady Bears creates a competitive imbalance among the top two seed lines. The entirety of the bracket could still be reasonably balanced. But having the No. 1 and No. 6 teams potentially meeting in the regional final would be unfair to both teams, especially when the domino effect would likely have the No. 8 overall team -- be it Marquette or Maryland or NC State -- likely playing in the same region as a lower-rated No. 1 seed, probably Oregon in Portland."

To me, Baylor, Louisville, and Oregon are basically equal and I'd actually argue for Oregon as overall number 1 based on having the most group 1 wins, including 3 top-10 RPI wins and an absolute thrashing of Stanford on the road.

At the very least, I don't see a huge difference between Baylor and Oregon. Whereas Notre Dame might make a pretty big difference to the attendance in Chicago.
 
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To me, Baylor, Louisville, and Oregon are basically equal and I'd actually argue for Oregon as overall number 1 based on having the most group 1 wins, including 3 top-10 RPI wins and an absolute thrashing of Stanford on the road.

At the very least, I don't see a huge difference between Baylor and Oregon. Whereas Notre Dame might make a pretty big difference to the attendance in Chicago.
I agree but I would add that Louisville’s resume is also virtually indistinguishable from Baylor’s by the metrics. The edge could go to Baylor because their SOS is slightly higher or because more of their top 50 wins have been on the road. Or it could go to Louisville if the committee looks to Quadrant 2 wins as the tiebreaker.
 

IWearShoes

Mississippi State
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I can't remember a time when so little separates so many teams in the top 16.

The margins in spots 1-3 are razor-thin. Here's how I have my top 3:
1. Oregon
2. Louisville
3. Baylor
I believe Oregon's road win at Stanford pushes them from #3 to #1, just ahead of Louisville and Baylor. Oregon is the only team with two wins over the "Big 7", and the only team with 11 top-50 wins.

There's very little separating spots 4-6 as well. Here's how I have them:
4. UConn
5. Miss State
6. Notre Dame
UConn edges just barely ahead of MSU because the road win at ND is significantly better than MSU's best win (at home vs. Marquette). ND has a whopping 10 top-50 wins (compared to 4 for both UConn and MSU), but the loss at Miami drops them just behind.

And then Stanford is a clear #7. Their win over Baylor gives them the edge over teeming masses behind them.
I might quibble about Louisville vs Baylor at #2, but pretty much agree with you completely.

The two regional final games that could happen between #3-#6 teams could be epic.
 
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At the end of all of this, the number one seeds will likely be Louisville, Oregon, Baylor, and a fourth team that everyone will argue about.

As far as AP polling, I don't really see any team as being the number one team. I see several teams that could be the number one team on any given week, but it's fluid. AP polling is always debatable. I'd be more inclined to vote UConn and Louisville ahead of Oregon because their losses are much better than Oregon's loss. Here's the thing about Oregon. Their signature win is against MSU who has no top 10 wins. Something to think about. They haven't been tested by ND, UConn, Baylor, or Louisville. This is why I'm also still exercising caution with MSU.
 
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Preliminary Seedings announced during half-time of the UConn and So Carolina game.
 
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Here's the thing about Oregon. Their signature win is against MSU who has no top 10 wins. Something to think about. They haven't been tested by ND, UConn, Baylor, or Louisville. This is why I'm also still exercising caution with MSU.
This is why I'm excited to see UCONN/USC, and the MSU/USC rematch. Since the Bulldogs beat a 12-5 USC team by 15 in Starkville, they've rattled off 5 straight conference wins and are just outside the top 10. Between the previous Bulldogs/Gamecocks matchup, USC's date with UCONN, and the rematch in Columbia to end the regular season, I hope to get a barometer of where MSU stands.

Would hate to get to the end of the season and let a single loss to potentially the top team in the country, as the *only* loss of the season, knock the Bulldogs down to a 2 seed.
 
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I might quibble about Louisville vs Baylor at #2, but pretty much agree with you completely.

The two regional final games that could happen between #3-#6 teams could be epic.
It’s unreal how parallel Baylor’s and Louisville’s resumes are. Pretty much a tossup.

As for the MSU/UConn comparison, MSU’s remaining schedule offers the potential of wins over Mizzou, A&M, LSU and SC, not to mention another 2 likely quality wins in the SEC tournament. UConn's resume is very near its ceiling, with only wins over SC and UCF in the offing. All that is to say that if both teams win out, MSU will almost certainly overtake UConn. Of course, it may not make a lick of difference if both teams end up in Albany regardless.
 
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The two regional final games that could happen between #3-#6 teams could be epic.
As I was reading Charlie's article, I was salivating over the prospect of a Baylor-Notre Dame matchup in Chicago.
 
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I'm really fascinated to see what the committee does with NC State. Until their recent two losses, they were the presumptive #8 overall, and Charlie still has them as a #3 seed. But I believe that their losses to UNC and FSU really expose their lack of quality wins. Their resume is just so ... thin compared to other teams in contention for hosting spots, and really hangs on their neutral-court win over Michigan State.
 
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I don't see NC State lasting as a two seed.


Portland region is really really weak

Oregon, NC State, Iowa, Gonzaga? lol
Just punch in Oregon to the final four already
NC State as a #2 makes me suspect that the committee made their decision a week or two ago. There is just no way that with their current resume, with losses to UNC and FSU and only a win over Michigan St to hang their hat on, that NC State has the 8th best resume.
 

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