NBA Playoffs 2023

[navery12]

It seemed he was money on those mid-range shots on the baseline all series. Someone have a shot chart for him during the 7 game series? Maybe I'm wrong but it seemed almost every time he got to those spots on the baseline he would make a shot.

Couldn't find a shot chart, but he was not good from the mid range / pull up jumpers during the series

 

[Deleted at users request]

It is truly amazing after the masterclass of an offense we just watched UConn run all season that anyone can be this adamant about a team taking more mid-range shots

People can say the same thing about watching Kemba’s historic run and then saying the mid range isn’t important.

 

[navery12]

People can say the same thing about watching Kemba’s historic run and then saying the mid range isn’t important.

They can, and I'd tell those people they're stuck in the past. The game has changed from 12+ years ago. It's time to move on and get with the times

 

[HooperScooper]

Couldn't find a shot chart, but he was not good from the mid range / pull up jumpers during the series

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Thanks. You look at these charts and the shot chart provided and you wonder how tf the Celtics lost to Miami. It really was Martin and all the other guys hitting threes and the Celtics not hitting theirs.

 

[Deleted at users request]

They can, and I'd tell those people they're stuck in the past. The game has changed from 12+ years ago. It's time to move on and get with the times

It hasn’t really. Only one team has won a championship relying on the three point shot that’s the Warriors.

The game is still about defense and dominating the paint at the end of the day. Which we actually did an amazing job of during our tourney run. I don’t think we even shot above 35% from three from the elite 8 on.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Thanks. You look at these charts and the shot chart provided and you wonder how tf the Celtics lost to Miami. It really was Martin and all the other guys hitting threes and the Celtics not hitting theirs.

Yep. It wasn’t a strategy problem. It was as execution problem. Boston missed shots it should make and Miami made shots it shouldn’t make. Part of that is how you defend. Martin was just beyond any reasonable expectation, and a few Boston guys were worse than could be expected.

 

[navery12]

It hasn’t really. Only one team has won a championship relying on the three point shot that’s the Warriors.

The game is still about defense and dominating the paint at the end of the day. Which we actually did an amazing job of during our tourney run. I don’t think we even shot above 35% from three from the elite 8 on.

That's a bit disingenuous when the Warriors have won 4 of the last 9 championships, and just blatantly wrong anyway. The Bucks shot the 8th most 3's and had the 5th best 3P% when they won. Raptors were 11th and 6th when they won, Cavs 3rd and 7th when they won

 

[superjohn]

Yep. It wasn’t a strategy problem. It was as execution problem. Boston missed shots it should make and Miami made shots it shouldn’t make. Part of that is how you defend. Martin was just beyond any reasonable expectation, and a few Boston guys were worse than could be expected.

Keep telling yourself that.

 

[superjohn]

That's a bit disingenuous when the Warriors have won 4 of the last 9 championships, and just blatantly wrong anyway. The Bucks shot the 8th most 3's and had the 5th best 3P% when they won. Raptors were 11th and 6th when they won, Cavs 3rd and 7th when they won

And Denver shoots the 25th most threes in the league while the Lakers shoot the 28th most threes in the league.

 

[navery12]

And Denver shoots the 25th most threes in the league while the Lakers shoot the 28th most threes in the league.

Yes, which is why I didn't say all teams did it. But saying only 1 team has won a championship relying on 3 point shooting is just a blatant lie

 

[Deleted at users request]

That's a bit disingenuous when the Warriors have won 4 of the last 9 championships, and just blatantly wrong anyway. The Bucks shot the 8th most 3's and had the 5th best 3P% when they won. Raptors were 11th and 6th when they won, Cavs 3rd and 7th when they won

The Warriors are an obvious outlier with the 2 best shooters of all time. Those guys don’t grow on trees.

The Bucks shot the 3rd worst three point percentage during their championship run in the playoffs. Top 3 in 2P%, Rebs, and Asts.

The Raptors were completely led and carried by one of the best mid range guys in the NBA in Kawhi. Like one of the best playoff performances in awhile. They also were strong defensively and on the boards.

All of these situations have context. Cavs didn’t even outshoot the Warriors in that 2016 finals. They shot 32% from three that series. You don’t think Kyrie wasn’t absolutely killing them from mid range though?

None of those teams relied on the 3 to win them games. That’s setting yourself up to fail. They all could win without shooting well.

 

[uconnbaseball]

In fairness, Denver is lethal from beyond the arc when they do put them up. Spurs esque.

 

[HuskyHawk]

And Denver shoots the 25th most threes in the league while the Lakers shoot the 28th most threes in the league.

But are they replacing those with midrange jumpers or do those teams score at the rim? I'm pretty sure we know the answer to that on a team with AD and LeBron carrying the scoring load.

I don't think you're going to convince any team that midrange jump shots are a good shot. Boston needs more options to score at the rim without driving from outside through traffic. They could use Adama Sanogo honestly.

How Mapping Shots In The NBA Changed It Forever

Kirk Goldsberry's new book examines the changing NBA landscape.

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[runner11]

Idk I know what the analytics say but if I’m a much more talented team, I don’t really want every single game to come down to whether we hit our 3s. Higher expected value but also higher variance and it’s not a coincidence to see so many players thrive in the playoffs year after year who can get to their spot and get a great shot whenever they want. To me, peak Kawhi is the best example.

 

[runner11]

Some day people will realize playoff basketball is different than regular season basketball

 

[wingsfan055]

When Miami covered the perimeter tightly or played zone, the C's offense was in trouble. Trying to dribble penetrate led to TOs, that led to easy transition points. C's had no Plan B. No cutting, no player movement, just a lot of slow picks and hero ball. On the flip side, lack of defensive identity on the perimeter led to a lot of open Miami 3s. Imo, this has more to do with a bad scheme or strategy and players not buying into it. The coach sets the strategy and identity and the players have to buy into it and execute. The GM has to bring in players that fit the identity. Something has to change cause the C's aren't going to win a Title by just rolling it back and hope Mazulla has learned from year 1 to Year 2.

 

[wingsfan055]

When Miami covered the perimeter tightly or played zone, the C's offense was in trouble. Trying to dribble penetrate led to TOs, that led to easy transition points. C's had no Plan B. No cutting, no player movement, just a lot of slow picks and hero ball. On the flip side, lack of defensive identity on the perimeter led to a lot of open Miami 3s. Imo, this has more to do with a bad scheme or strategy and players not buying into it. The coach sets the strategy and identity and the players have to buy into it and execute. The GM has to bring in players that fit the identity. Something has to change cause the C's aren't going to win a Title by just rolling it back and hope Mazulla has learned from year 1 to Year 2.

Btw, this is why C's have a hard time closing out games and giving up big leads. A problem all year long. Teams will up their defense in the 4th quarter, and the above pattern just repeats itself even against bad teams.

 

[wingsfan055]

The Warriors shoot a lot of 3s, but there is a lot of player and ball movement, lots of cutting, to get open looks and easy shots. C's offense is just too stagnant. DWhite likes to constantly move, Tatum when he has to. But most players are just standing by the perimeter not sure what to do. Bad scheme.

 

[Husky25]

It is truly amazing after the masterclass of an offense we just watched UConn run all season that anyone can be this adamant about a team taking more mid-range shots

The college 3 pointer is considered a mid-range shot in the NBA.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It is truly amazing after the masterclass of an offense we just watched UConn run all season that anyone can be this adamant about a team taking more mid-range shots

It is truly amazing that smart people that understand analytics still reach the conclusion that chucking contested 3's is a good idea.

 

[Deleted at users request]

It is truly amazing that smart people that understand analytics still reach the conclusion that chucking contested 3's is a good idea.

And ignore every single superstar that makes their living otherwise except Steph.

Tatum is a prime example of where following analytical basketball gets you. While Kawhi is the opposite.

KD said it best, the numbers are great for letting players know where they are weak at to work on their game. But playing basketball based on a formula and not feel isn’t ideal.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

And ignore every single superstar that makes their living otherwise except Steph.

Tatum is a prime example of where following analytical basketball gets you. While Kawhi is the opposite.

KD said it best, the numbers are great for letting players know where they are weak at to work on their game. But playing basketball based on a formula and not feel isn’t ideal.

I actually think that basketball "experts" are still in the early days of truly understanding the numbers. Specifically, most analytics to not effectively incorporate Conditional Probability, which means they miss obvious things like post up shots create more offensive rebounds which result in high probability second chance opportunities. Traditional analytics is still in the early days of understanding the magnitude of the impact on the probability of a shot based on "how" a player got to a spot. So many "analytics" experts love 25 foot kamikaze drives from the 3 point line which are low probability finishes, whereas drive and dishes are very high probability. If you are just looking at a shot chart, the 40% kamikaze drive shots are mixed in with the 90% alleyoop dunks or weakside putback, inflating the value of the kamikaze drive to analytics "experts".

I think Klay Thompson, in his prime, was a great example of using analytics to maximize shot probability. I think Maxie is an example of a player who probably looks like an analytics player based on a shot chart, but is fairly inefficient because he takes so many pull-up 3's and kamikaze drive shots. Maxie would be a multi-time All-NBA player if anyone taught him to play truly efficiently.

Finally, offenses have to take what the defense is giving them (i.e. recognize Conditional Probability). The Miami 2-3 Zone leaves a zip code of open space at the high post, and the Celtics just ignored it to take more contested 3's and kamikaze drives. The worst part of the Celtics' handling of the Miami Zone was that Spoelstra did the same thing to the Bucks in the 2020 Bubble. Celts should have pulled the game film.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The Warriors shoot a lot of 3s, but there is a lot of player and ball movement, lots of cutting, to get open looks and easy shots. C's offense is just too stagnant. DWhite likes to constantly move, Tatum when he has to. But most players are just standing by the perimeter not sure what to do. Bad scheme.

They normally move quite a lot, just like GS. The offensive system is very similar. The Zone impacted some of that because nobody was chasing. It limits your ball screen game. Miami didn't do anything special guarding the perimeter. Mostly Boston missed wide open 3s.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

They normally move quite a lot, just like GS. The offensive system is very similar. The Zone impacted some of that because nobody was chasing. It limits your ball screen game. Miami didn't do anything special guarding the perimeter. Mostly Boston missed wide open 3s.

Boston was missing contested 3's. Spoelstra's zone is designed to stop teams that just pass around the perimeter with the occasional drive right at Adebayo mixed in. Miami could practically stand in place on defense and wait for Boston to pass it to someone to shoot right in their defender's face. Bucks were similar.

 

[superjohn]

But are they replacing those with midrange jumpers or do those teams score at the rim? I'm pretty sure we know the answer to that on a team with AD and LeBron carrying the scoring load.

I don't think you're going to convince any team that midrange jump shots are a good shot. Boston needs more options to score at the rim without driving from outside through traffic. They could use Adama Sanogo honestly.

How Mapping Shots In The NBA Changed It Forever

Kirk Goldsberry's new book examines the changing NBA landscape.

fivethirtyeight.com

Midrange shots are a great shot when they are given to you. In the playoffs teams take away what you want to do, make threes and make shots at the rim. Celtics play right into your hands, it's why the team of undrafted guys was able to beat the more talented team with the first and second team all-NBA player and it's why Tatum is so hit or miss in the fourth quarter of big playoff games. When his three is going in it goes well, when it's not going in it turns into a disaster film. Great players are supposed to be able to take advantage of what is given to them.