NBA Off-Season Thread

[champs99and04]

Sources: Raptors, Spurs finalizing Kawhi trade

If you are the Raptors, and have one of the Top 30 players in the NBA that is happy in Toronto, why would you mess with that?

Few players around the league are as divisive as DeRozan. He's the rare wing who can't shoot the three at all, he takes possessions off defensively, and he tends to crash in the playoffs. At 27+ mil over the next three years, I can see why the Raptors wanted out of that contract. It's debatable whether he has made them better at all in their most important games.

This is going to end with the Raptors trading Kawhi before the deadline and I think they're OK with that. If you're going to initiate a full-scale rebuild at some point, why not take a chance on a top five NBA player? LeBron's out of the East, Lowry's still in his prime for now, and you have some nice young pieces (though it's unclear how many of them they gave up in the trade). If it works, you're in the finals. If it doesn't, you use Kawhi as leverage to shed the rest of Lowry's deal and start the process of bottoming out.

On the other hand, I have no idea what San Antonio is doing. We're really, really going to find out how good Pop is, because he seems to be behind this.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Sources: Raptors, Spurs finalizing Kawhi trade

If you are the Raptors, and have one of the Top 30 players in the NBA that is happy in Toronto, why would you mess with that?

Derozan is top 30 (& he did double his 3pt attempts last yr, though shot 31%), but healthy Kawhi is top 5.
The Raptors unquestionably melted down in the playoffs last year and the fallout/reaction was break it up. That built a lot of momentum prior to LeBron leaving the East. I'd argue that no LeBron SHOULD have undone everything as it was uniquely LeBron that caused the Raptors to implode. But I don't follow them closing and it is also likely that the playoff debacle occurred because of some fatal flaw exposed.
1. If that's the case AND they can sign Kawhi long-term, then this is a great trade.
2. If not, then they need to make the NBA finals this season for the trade to be worth it and they certainly have a better chance with Kawhi vs DeRozan.

 

[the Q]

Few players around the league are as divisive as DeRozan. He's the rare wing who can't shoot the three at all, he takes possessions off defensively, and he tends to crash in the playoffs. At 27+ mil over the next three years, I can see why the Raptors wanted out of that contract. It's debatable whether he has made them better at all in their most important games.

This is going to end with the Raptors trading Kawhi before the deadline and I think they're OK with that. If you're going to initiate a full-scale rebuild at some point, why not take a chance on a top five NBA player? LeBron's out of the East, Lowry's still in his prime for now, and you have some nice young pieces (though it's unclear how many of them they gave up in the trade). If it works, you're in the finals. If it doesn't, you use Kawhi as leverage to shed the rest of Lowry's deal and start the process of bottoming out.

On the other hand, I have no idea what San Antonio is doing. We're really, really going to find out how good Pop is, because he seems to be behind this.

I don't like this direction, but I will say, they did win 47 games mostly with Kawhi only round for about 10% of the season.

 

[the Q]

Derozan is top 30, but healthy Kawhi is top 5.
The Raptors unquestionably melted down in the playoffs last year and the fallout/reaction was break it up. That built a lot of momentum prior to LeBron leaving the East. I'd argue that no LeBron SHOULD have undone everything as it was uniquely LeBron that caused the Raptors to implode. But I don't follow them closing and it is also likely that the playoff debacle occurred because of some fatal flaw exposed.
1. If that's the case AND they can sign Kawhi long-term, then this is a great trade.
2. If not, then they need to make the NBA finals this season for the trade to be worth it and they certainly have a better chance with Kawhi vs DeRozan.

They have a very real chance to make the finals.

And since the Lakers will have cap space they make a S&T and at least get something for Kawhi after the season.

 

[Dogdeacon]

They have a very real chance to make the finals.

And since the Lakers will have cap space they make a S&T and at least get something for Kawhi after the season.

The Lakers not trading for Kawhi is based on assumption and strategy that they want long-term growth and can attract free agents with LeBron without sacrificing current or future assets. The Lakers simply aren't good enough to trade away anything meaningful & contend for a championship.

Even with best case scenarios for all the Laker young players and landing a free agent Kawhi, the 19-20 Lakers would still be underdogs if the Warriors keep their top-5. They can't afford a sign & trade until a league shakeup and until they see what their young players can really do in competitive/playoff games.

 

[champs99and04]

I don't like this direction, but I will say, they did win 47 games mostly with Kawhi only round for about 10% of the season.

That's what people will talk themselves into. What makes it so interesting is that you have one of the league's most well-respected organizations essentially going back in time with a Dejounte/DeRozan/Rudy/Aldridge core. Not sure what the end game is, but I suppose if there were ever a time for the mid-range two to make a comeback, it is now? Perhaps I am overthinking it and they are merely trying to tank and clear cap space.

Toronto definitely did this knowing full well that keeping Kawhi is a shot in the dark, but one thing people tend to underestimate in discussions like this is the value of having Kawhi for one year. People are not going to die if he leaves for LA. I mean how many college fan bases will devote their lives to recruiting a player for one year, but then when it's a dude exponentially more meaningful we talk about this like it's something other than entertainment? He's going to be the best player in franchise history.

 

[the Q]

The Lakers not trading for Kawhi is based on assumption and strategy that they want long-term growth and can attract free agents with LeBron without sacrificing current or future assets. The Lakers simply aren't good enough to trade away anything meaningful & contend for a championship.

Even with best case scenarios for all the Laker young players and landing a free agent Kawhi, the 19-20 Lakers would still be underdogs if the Warriors keep their top-5. They can't afford a sign & trade until a league shakeup and until they see what their young players can really do in competitive/playoff games.

There's a few they should be selling. Such as Ingram before he becomes their Wiggins.

 

[the Q]

That's what people will talk themselves into. What makes it so interesting is that you have one of the league's most well-respected organizations essentially going back in time with a Dejounte/DeRozan/Rudy/Aldridge core. Not sure what the end game is, but I suppose if there were ever a time for the mid-range two to make a comeback, it is now? Perhaps I am overthinking it and they are merely trying to tank and clear cap space.

Toronto definitely did this knowing full well that keeping Kawhi is a shot in the dark, but one thing people tend to underestimate in discussions like this is the value of having Kawhi for one year. People are not going to die if he leaves for LA. I mean how many college fan bases will devote their lives to recruiting a player for one year, but then when it's a dude exponentially more meaningful we talk about this like it's something other than entertainment? He's going to be the best player in franchise history.

Well this is a classic zig while everyone is zagging move.

But having Green and Mills does give you the 3pt shooting that core is lacking.

I really thought Philly would get Mills. He's a great fit next to Simmons.

 

[the Q]

i admit. I laughed.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Derozan is top 30 (& he did double his 3pt attempts last yr, though shot 31%), but healthy Kawhi is top 5.
The Raptors unquestionably melted down in the playoffs last year and the fallout/reaction was break it up. That built a lot of momentum prior to LeBron leaving the East. I'd argue that no LeBron SHOULD have undone everything as it was uniquely LeBron that caused the Raptors to implode. But I don't follow them closing and it is also likely that the playoff debacle occurred because of some fatal flaw exposed.
1. If that's the case AND they can sign Kawhi long-term, then this is a great trade.
2. If not, then they need to make the NBA finals this season for the trade to be worth it and they certainly have a better chance with Kawhi vs DeRozan.

DeRozan plus a decent supporting lineup would keep the Raptors at 50+ wins for the next 3 years, and a good trade, free agent signing, and/or a Celtics injury away from a shot at winning the East. Now they get one year of Kawhi, and I would not put Kawhi in the Top 5 coming off an injury and no longer playing for Popovich.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Few players around the league are as divisive as DeRozan. He's the rare wing who can't shoot the three at all, he takes possessions off defensively, and he tends to crash in the playoffs. At 27+ mil over the next three years, I can see why the Raptors wanted out of that contract. It's debatable whether he has made them better at all in their most important games.

This is going to end with the Raptors trading Kawhi before the deadline and I think they're OK with that. If you're going to initiate a full-scale rebuild at some point, why not take a chance on a top five NBA player? LeBron's out of the East, Lowry's still in his prime for now, and you have some nice young pieces (though it's unclear how many of them they gave up in the trade). If it works, you're in the finals. If it doesn't, you use Kawhi as leverage to shed the rest of Lowry's deal and start the process of bottoming out.

On the other hand, I have no idea what San Antonio is doing. We're really, really going to find out how good Pop is, because he seems to be behind this.

Raptors won 59 games last season with DeRozan as the offensive focus, and now the best coach in NBA history wants him. He can't be that bad.

 

[the Q]

Raptors won 59 games last season with DeRozan as the offensive focus, and now the best coach in NBA history wants him. He can't be that bad.

When did Red take over the Spurs?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The 76ers seem like the logical destination for LeBron for a lot of reasons. They are already good, they are still getting better, they are in a big city, they have cap room, and they are in the east which is an easier path to the Finals than LA.

I expect the Spurs to spin Kawhi into something good that can put them back in contention for a title.

After the Celtics and 76ers, the Bucks are the only team in the east that I see possibly getting materially better. The Wizards, Raptors, Pacers, Heat and Pistons all feel like 40-50 win teams depending on who has a good season next year. Hornets might be able to squeeze out 45 wins if everything breaks right. But all 6 of these teams are getting older and have cap problems, except the Pacers. The rest of the conference will be lucky to win 35 games, and most of those teams will be in the 20's.

Popovich is a genius.

My East rankings:

1) Celtics - should win over 60 games

2) Bucks - This is a team that the Freak can win with. They got rid of Parker and his terrible defense, and added good complementary players in Lopez and Ilyasova. Lopez will help a lot on offense. Ilyasova has been one of my favorite players in the NBA for years, hard working, physical and can shoot. He makes every team he is on better. Bledsoe just needs to pass the ball and play a little bit of defense, and this team will be really good. Middleton thinks he is all-star caliber, and next year is the year to show it. I like the bench (Dellavadova, Snell, Brogdan). The Bucks will be an average team defensively, but should be unstoppable offensively. Budenholzer will be a big improvement on the bench too.

3) 76ers - blew the offseason. Took a good bench, and made it bad, blew cap space on a bunch of geezers, and will be mediocre or bad when Embiid is not on the court, which will be a lot.

4) Pacers - I think 2017-2018 was an anomaly. A bunch of players had career years. I like this team, but they definitely have a ceiling.

5) Wizards - on paper, this is probably the 2nd best team in the East, and I could see the Wizards jumping out to a good start next season, but how long will it take for this group to self-destruct?

6) Raptors - I don't like Kawhi on a team that he doesn't want to play on. He could turn a hangnail into 2 weeks off. He has nothing to prove, and he is stalling for a max deal next season. Not a good situation.

7) Pistons - Someone's got to make the playoffs in the East. Dwayne Casey is good enough to get this team to 44-45 wins.

8) Heat - didn't do much in the offseason, and is clearly positioning for next season's free agency. Spoelstra is good enough to squeeze 40+ wins and a playoff berth out of this squad.

9) Hornets - this team is not terrible, and having a steadier coaching situation and no Howard in the locker room will help.

 

[UConnStats]

1) their window with that core is closed.

2) 2 years of DD are less than 1 year of Kawhi in pure value.

3) Kawhi and Lowry is a really good 1-2. And with the youth and potential of Poetl, Siakam and OG and even Van Vleet, you have some a really interesting group of guys (rumors i saw had JV also going in the deal to SA).

They still would have been better off trading DeRozan for draft picks if they were going to give him up. You don’t put all of your eggs in one year’s basket when the defending champions go out and add another all star. Seems like a waste of assets either way IMO unless Kawhi signs long term, which he won’t in Toronto.

 

[Husky25]

Leonard is not getting a max deal if he pouts all year.

 

[auror]

They still would have been better off trading DeRozan for draft picks if they were going to give him up. You don’t put all of your eggs in one year’s basket when the defending champions go out and add another all star. Seems like a waste of assets either way IMO unless Kawhi signs long term, which he won’t in Toronto.

I agree.

Do I think it's a hideous trade for Toronto? No. It sets them up both for this year and allows them to start rebuilding next year if they think their core is done.

Do I think they could have gotten more for DeRozan, a 1st, and Poeltl than 1 year of a guy who doesn't want to play for them and 1 year of a guy who's washed?

Yes.

 

[UConnStats]

I agree.

Do I think it's a hideous trade for Toronto? No. It sets them up both for this year and allows them to start rebuilding next year if they think their core is done.

Do I think they could have gotten more for DeRozan, a 1st, and Poeltl than 1 year of a guy who doesn't want to play for them and 1 year of a guy who's washed?

Yes.

Giving up a first round pick is tough too. Toronto fans are going to be bummed when Leonard is gone and they don’t have a first rounder next year. The whole thing is painfully shortsighted.

 

[champs99and04]

I agree.

Do I think it's a hideous trade for Toronto? No. It sets them up both for this year and allows them to start rebuilding next year if they think their core is done.

Do I think they could have gotten more for DeRozan, a 1st, and Poeltl than 1 year of a guy who doesn't want to play for them and 1 year of a guy who's washed?

Yes.

What team is knocking down the door to trade for DeRozan? If this were the NFL he's a candidate to get cut.

 

[champs99and04]

Giving up a first round pick is tough too. Toronto fans are going to be bummed when Leonard is gone and they don’t have a first rounder next year. The whole thing is painfully shortsighted.

The first rounder is protected, and they could very easily get one back in a sign in trade. I don't think it's shortsighted at all.

 

[champs99and04]

Raptors won 59 games last season with DeRozan as the offensive focus, and now the best coach in NBA history wants him. He can't be that bad.

He's a misfit. Lowry has always been far and away the best, most indispensable player on the team. The on/off splits support this.

He's in that Isiah Thomas/Andrew Wiggins category. I'd take Kevin Love over him.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I agree.

Do I think it's a hideous trade for Toronto? No. It sets them up both for this year and allows them to start rebuilding next year if they think their core is done.

Do I think they could have gotten more for DeRozan, a 1st, and Poeltl than 1 year of a guy who doesn't want to play for them and 1 year of a guy who's washed?

Yes.

Of course the trade boils down to is Kawhi capable of MVP form in 18-19 and will he resign. If EITHER of those occurs its a win and at least POTENTIALLY the Raptors have a better chance to win East in 18-19 AND a better possibility to be a contender long-term. Lowery ($31MM), Ibaka (28MM) & Valanciounas ($22MM) are signed for big money for 2 more seasons (DeRozan was 3, hence the one to go), but theoretically based on what happens with Leonard resigning they can restart after next year and dump or buyout/stretch one of those contracts. They are also paying someone named Norman Powell 10MM-ish for the next 4 seasons. I don't even know who that is & I'd guess our collective knowledge of the Raptors roster is similarly surface level. Ie. can OG Anyobudy play alongside Kawhi?

 

[auror]

What team is knocking down the door to trade for DeRozan? If this were the NFL he's a candidate to get cut.

He's in his prime (28) and had his best season last year. He led them to the best record in the East last year. He's signed for 2+ years.

He was All-NBA 2nd team last year and 3rd the year before. He's been an All-Star 4 of the last 5 years.

His advanced stats haven't been as good as the accolades in general, but they were good last year for a volume scorer and his defense was the best it's been in the last couple years.

They'd be able to get a piece with much longer control for DeRozan, Poeltl, and a late 1st. Gary Harris, someone like that.
Poeltl is a real piece (top 10 pick 2 years ago and has played fairly well) and a late 1st is still valuable.

 

[the Q]

This is basically Toronto's shot.

 

[Walker11]

I like the trade just fine for both teams. Realistically, with the Warriors being so far above the crowd, no trade matters for the foreseeable future. This is a good haul for Leonard in that the Spurs will be a upper echelon West team for the remainder of Pops days and the Raptors are giving themselves the best chance to lose in the Finals, which would be their best season in franchise history. If Kawhi seemingly miraculously re-signs, they are giving themselves a good chance to lose in the Finals for several years in a row, and maybe they can outlast the Warriors core because their awesome 2nd unit is so young and the Warriors will be so expensive.

I feel for Demar. He represented Toronto extremely well and good luck finding another top 25 player who wants to spend his whole career in Canada. He apparently was lied to and was also sold on being the face of the franchise for his career and sacrificed money to improve the team but at the end of the day, he is to blame for his naivety. A move like this kinda makes me feel good about the Warriors saying -you to everyone else.

It also seems clear to me that Toronto would be fine with Kawhi leaving and simply getting Derozan's contract off the books. They have a very deep backcourt and I really like both Van Vleet and Wright. Even Powell has been quite good when given big minutes and he is the 12th man. I kinda wish they traded Lowry as I think Van Vleet will be better in 2 years but he does have less years. The 3/4 rotation will be an insane 2 way unit if Siakam and OG develop like everyone expects them to continue doing. And Kawhi stays, obviously. So if Kawhi leaves and they decide to ditch Lowry, JV and Ibaka the following season (I think the latter 2 are a foregone conclusion) they begin the tank, but their young role players will be too good to bottom out but I don't see star potential in any of them. They will be be stuck as a mid-tier East team futilely hoping to bring a big time star to complement all the solid pieces around.

What I like about Derozan is that he gets significantly better at one aspect of his game every summer. He has carried the offensive load for the Raptors for years with fine efficiency for such a volume scorer. Footwork, shot creation, mid-range, finishing are all huge pluses. The intriguing factor is pairing him with most highly acclaimed shooting coach in the NBA, by far. To me the trade by SAS means that Pop wants to be competitive and finish 3rd or 4th in the West for his final seasons.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I like the trade just fine for both teams. Realistically, with the Warriors being so far above the crowd, no trade matters for the foreseeable future. This is a good haul for Leonard in that the Spurs will be a upper echelon West team for the remainder of Pops days and the Raptors are giving themselves the best chance to lose in the Finals, which would be their best season in franchise history. If Kawhi seemingly miraculously re-signs, they are giving themselves a good chance to lose in the Finals for several years in a row, and maybe they can outlast the Warriors core because their awesome 2nd unit is so young and the Warriors will be so expensive.

I feel for Demar. He represented Toronto extremely well and good luck finding another top 25 player who wants to spend his whole career in Canada. He apparently was lied to and was also sold on being the face of the franchise for his career and sacrificed money to improve the team but at the end of the day, he is to blame for his naivety. A move like this kinda makes me feel good about the Warriors saying -you to everyone else.

It also seems clear to me that Toronto would be fine with Kawhi leaving and simply getting Derozan's contract off the books. They have a very deep backcourt and I really like both Van Vleet and Wright. Even Powell has been quite good when given big minutes and he is the 12th man. I kinda wish they traded Lowry as I think Van Vleet will be better in 2 years but he does have less years. The 3/4 rotation will be an insane 2 way unit if Siakam and OG develop like everyone expects them to continue doing. And Kawhi stays, obviously. So if Kawhi leaves and they decide to ditch Lowry, JV and Ibaka the following season (I think the latter 2 are a foregone conclusion) they begin the tank, but their young role players will be too good to bottom out but I don't see star potential in any of them. They will be be stuck as a mid-tier East team futilely hoping to bring a big time star to complement all the solid pieces around.

What I like about Derozan is that he gets significantly better at one aspect of his game every summer. He has carried the offensive load for the Raptors for years with fine efficiency for such a volume scorer. Footwork, shot creation, mid-range, finishing are all huge pluses. The intriguing factor is pairing him with most highly acclaimed shooting coach in the NBA, by far. To me the trade by SAS means that Pop wants to be competitive and finish 3rd or 4th in the West for his final seasons.

If Kawhi sticks in Canada, then this was a good trade for Toronto.

I think Pops will make Derozan into the centerpiece of a Spurs team that will finish Top 4 in the West for the next 4-5 years. The Spurs killed it with this trade.