NBA Off-Season Thread

[nelsonmuntz]

IIRC Vegas has the Over/Under for wins at 50.5 for the Lakers. So is 50 wins not enough to make the playoffs in the West? Last year I believe something like seeds 3-10 were separated by 3 or 4 wins. It may not be so historically close next season, but it’s way too early to call now. Lots of solid teams, and several won’t make the playoffs.

Spurs will take a significant step back. I see zero reason to trust Denver yet.

I see the Lakers as probably the third or fourth best team in the West behind GS and Houston, and maybe Portland, right now.

How are the Spurs going to take a step back by adding DeRozan?

The Lakers over/under on wins is driven by LeBron hype and balancing their book. I bet that slides down as we approach the season.

I just want to capture "Lakers as third or forth best team in the West".

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Because he wants to be the next magic or MJ after hoops.

His wife wanted to be in LA, and he wanted bronny playing elite hs basketball.

I didn't realize that LA was the only place in the country to play elite HS basketball.

If LeBron wants to be the next Magic or MJ, he should have found a franchise that would have given him the keys. Magic is never getting out of the way in LA. Cuban probably would have done it, and Reilly would have been open to power sharing at his age. Timberwolves are flailing, and the 76ers are blowing it too, but both teams have decent building blocks.

What does joining a team with Michael Beasley and Lance Stephenson accomplish?

 

[Rocktheworld]

How are the Spurs going to take a step back by adding DeRozan?

Because in the 1:1 Kawhi to DeRozan, San Antonio lost the player who is better in about every meaningful aspect of the game. And then they also lost Danny Green.

The Lakers over/under on wins is driven by LeBron hype and balancing their book.

Yeah that’s how Vegas does it

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Because in the 1:1 Kawhi to DeRozan, San Antonio lost the player who is better in about every meaningful aspect of the game. And then they also lost Danny Green.


Yeah that’s how Vegas does it

Spurs won 45 games last year, and had Kawhi for 9 games all season, going 5-4 in those games. Now the Spurs have a 4 time all star they didn't have before. I think Derozan is worth at least 6-8 wins, if not more.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Wait so negative review of LeBron b/c he signed to a rebuilding project, but we hate KD for joining Warriors, hate LeBron for Heat etc. Maybe every free agent should be mandated to wear a He Hate Me jersey?

LeBron with one or two decent parts is a playoff team (um Cavs last yr were 3 seed) and I think the LA rebuild will cement his legacy. Much better to tool up in first year then try for free agents and a 2-5 year contending run beginning in 19-20. I don’t like their signings but the Lakers are smart not to trade away any assets & majority of these guys are one year placeholders.

 

[the Q]

Spurs won 45 games last year, and had Kawhi for 9 games all season, going 5-4 in those games. Now the Spurs have a 4 time all star they didn't have before. I think Derozan is worth at least 6-8 wins, if not more.

To be fair I think they were either 4-2 or 5-1 when he played at least 20 min.

 

[the Q]

Wait so negative review of LeBron b/c he signed to a rebuilding project, but we hate KD for joining Warriors, hate LeBron for Heat etc. Maybe every free agent should be mandated to wear a He Hate Me jersey?

LeBron with one or two decent parts is a playoff team (um Cavs last yr were 3 seed) and I think the LA rebuild will cement his legacy. Much better to tool up in first year then try for free agents and a 2-5 year contending run beginning in 19-20. I don’t like their signings but the Lakers are smart not to trade away any assets & majority of these guys are one year placeholders.

Derozan is exactly why I don’t care about bron to heat or kd to warriors

 

[tzznandrew]

I just want to capture "Lakers as third or forth best team in the West".

The Cavs had the 4th best record in the EAST last year. We'll see how much better Ingram is, and how far along some of the other youngins are, but the West is really deep with teams trying to make the playoffs. There won't be nearly as many off nights.

 

[Rocktheworld]

The Cavs had the 4th best record in the EAST last year. We'll see how much better Ingram is, and how far along some of the other youngins are, but the West is really deep with teams trying to make the playoffs. There won't be nearly as many off nights.

Well, where might 50 wins land them in the West? Contending within the 3-5 seed range, no?

 

[ihatepants]

Well, where might 50 wins land them in the West? Contending within the 3-5 seed range, no?

I love LeBron as much as anyone on these forums, but the Lakers are not gonna be a top 5 seed. And they definitely aren’t winning 50 in the West. I know everyone likes to rag on Kevin Love, but the Lakers have no one even close to having the same kind of production he had for the Cavs last year. Plus no one on the Lakers can shoot.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I love LeBron as much as anyone on these forums, but the Lakers are not gonna be a top 5 seed. And they definitely aren’t winning 50 in the West. I know everyone likes to rag on Kevin Love, but the Lakers have no one even close to having the same kind of production he had for the Cavs last year. Plus no one on the Lakers can shoot.

I could be wrong but isn’t Vegas’s over/under on wins 50.5? You don’t think adding Bron, Rondo, and Stephenson factors 15 more wins? Bron doesn’t add 10 on his own?

 

[ihatepants]

I could be wrong but isn’t Vegas’s over/under on wins 50.5? You don’t think adding Bron, Rondo, and Stephenson factors 15 more wins? Bron doesn’t add 10 on his own?

The Cavs team were a better team last year than the Lakers will be this year and LeBron only got them to 50 wins in a weaker conference.

 

[intlzncster]

LeBron with one or two decent parts is a playoff team (um Cavs last yr were 3 seed) and I think the LA rebuild will cement his legacy. Much better to tool up in first year then try for free agents and a 2-5 year contending run beginning in 19-20. I don’t like their signings but the Lakers are smart not to trade away any assets & majority of these guys are one year placeholders.

To be fair, that's only because the East sucked. Put that team in the West and it's not sniffing the playoffs. If the C's were healthy, LeBron and Co. wouldn't have been in the Finals.

I've no idea why anyone hates LeBron for this move. I respect him (yuck) for it. Hope they at least push some of the front runners.

 

[tzznandrew]

I could be wrong but isn’t Vegas’s over/under on wins 50.5? You don’t think adding Bron, Rondo, and Stephenson factors 15 more wins? Bron doesn’t add 10 on his own?

I don't think they get to 50 wins out West. And while 50 wins got a team the 3-seed, 47 got Minnesota the 8.

Bron adds some wins, maybe even 10, I don't know that Rondo or Stephenson add any. Both were essentially replacement level players last year (Stephenson's VORP was 0, Rondo's was 0.4). Randle had more win shares (6.6) than Lance and Rondo combined (1.8 & 3.6).

How many more wins they generate will really have to do with how much better Ingram, Lonzo, Hart, and Kuzma are next year (all of whom created fewer WS than Randle). And it really comes down to how high you are on Ingram, because he's your #2. And I'm not high on him. His advanced metrics are horrible.

LeBron is brilliant, so nothing would surprise me, but the team is going to be as good as Ingram is because LeBron can't do everything.

 

[tzznandrew]

I love LeBron as much as anyone on these forums, but the Lakers are not gonna be a top 5 seed. And they definitely aren’t winning 50 in the West. I know everyone likes to rag on Kevin Love, but the Lakers have no one even close to having the same kind of production he had for the Cavs last year. Plus no one on the Lakers can shoot.

This is literally the weirdest team to put around LeBron. And they lost, arguably, their most productive player in Randle. If LeBron gets hurt or misses time...woof.

And, look, LeBron is like a tank. But at some point, given the mileage, you figure he's going to get hurt, right? Or lose a step?

 

[ihatepants]

Btw, I think that the Vegas bet to take would be the Spurs one. I think right after Kawhi was traded they had the over/under Spurs wins at 40. They won 47 games last year pretty much playing the entire season without Kawhi (5-4 in games he played). I definitely would have taken the over there.

 

[Dogdeacon]

This is literally the weirdest team to put around LeBron. And they lost, arguably, their most productive player in Randle. If LeBron gets hurt or misses time...woof.

And, look, LeBron is like a tank. But at some point, given the mileage, you figure he's going to get hurt, right? Or lose a step?

Wow, I hadn’t considered their other players in depth metrics before. I would still ‘bet’ playoffs, but now thinking their odds are poor

So in play if you buy LeBron conceding 18-19 to Warriors is he has humility to give up finals and playoff streaks and reduce his minutes. His body could use a break after so many finals and maybe his leading the league in games & minutes last year was in anticipation of take bag it easy this year. So the LeBreakers build culture, compete but fall short of playoffs & LeBron gets May & June off for the first time in his adult life.

 

[intlzncster]

This is literally the weirdest team to put around LeBron. And they lost, arguably, their most productive player in Randle. If LeBron gets hurt or misses time...woof.

And, look, LeBron is like a tank. But at some point, given the mileage, you figure he's going to get hurt, right? Or lose a step?

One of the most intriguing things in the coming years is just how LeBron breaks or slows down. I maintain that if he stays relatively healthy, he could turn himself into a better version of Karl Malone and easily play effectively into his 40s.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I don't think they get to 50 wins out West. And while 50 wins got a team the 3-seed, 47 got Minnesota the 8.

Bron adds some wins, maybe even 10, I don't know that Rondo or Stephenson add any. Both were essentially replacement level players last year (Stephenson's VORP was 0, Rondo's was 0.4). Randle had more win shares (6.6) than Lance and Rondo combined (1.8 & 3.6).

How many more wins they generate will really have to do with how much better Ingram, Lonzo, Hart, and Kuzma are next year (all of whom created fewer WS than Randle). And it really comes down to how high you are on Ingram, because he's your #2. And I'm not high on him. His advanced metrics are horrible.

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LeBron is brilliant, so nothing would surprise me, but the team is going to be as good as Ingram is because LeBron can't do everything.

I figure fleshing out of the rotation by adding (losing nothing) Rondo and Stephenson, two veterans who averaged double figures last season, factors 5 or so more wins. Five more games would be about a 15% improvement over last season, do the additions make the team 15% better?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I figure fleshing out of the rotation by adding (losing nothing) Rondo and Stephenson, two veterans who averaged double figures last season, factors 5 or so more wins. Five more games would be about a 15% improvement over last season, do the additions make the team 15% better?

I would have been on board with the Lakers as a playoff team if they had kept last year's team and added Lebron. But they didn't do that. They let Randle and Lopez walk out the door for nothing back, and they signed a bunch of hot garbage. At least the 76ers didn't sign a bunch of cancers when they decided to mail it in this summer.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Top moves of the offseason. First two are obvious:

1) Lebron to Lakers - Magic made a hot mess of things after signing Lebron, but he did sign Lebron.

2) Cousins to Warriors

3) DeRozan to Spurs for Leonard - The Spurs were on their way to a full blown rebuilding mode, and then they got Toronto to dump an all-star with 3 years left on his contract for a guy that doesn't want to play in San Antonio or Toronto. They have two stars in DeRozan and Aldridge, and a good set of complementary pieces around them. Pops is still Pops.

4) Oklahoma City dumping Carmelo - Oklahoma City needs to win now, and Carmelo hurts more than he helps. OKC also got out from under a mountain of luxury tax.

5) ??? not sure

 

[Husky25]

Top moves of the offseason. First two are obvious:

1) Lebron to Lakers - Magic made a hot mess of things after signing Lebron, but he did sign Lebron.

2) Cousins to Warriors

3) DeRozan to Spurs for Leonard - The Spurs were on their way to a full blown rebuilding mode, and then they got Toronto to dump an all-star with 3 years left on his contract for a guy that doesn't want to play in San Antonio or Toronto. They have two stars in DeRozan and Aldridge, and a good set of complementary pieces around them. Pops is still Pops.

4) Oklahoma City dumping Carmelo - Oklahoma City needs to win now, and Carmelo hurts more than he helps. OKC also got out from under a mountain of luxury tax.

5) ??? not sure

Nominated for #5

 

[the Q]

Top moves of the offseason. First two are obvious:

1) Lebron to Lakers - Magic made a hot mess of things after signing Lebron, but he did sign Lebron.

2) Cousins to Warriors

3) DeRozan to Spurs for Leonard - The Spurs were on their way to a full blown rebuilding mode, and then they got Toronto to dump an all-star with 3 years left on his contract for a guy that doesn't want to play in San Antonio or Toronto. They have two stars in DeRozan and Aldridge, and a good set of complementary pieces around them. Pops is still Pops.

4) Oklahoma City dumping Carmelo - Oklahoma City needs to win now, and Carmelo hurts more than he helps. OKC also got out from under a mountain of luxury tax.

5) ??? not sure

Paul George’s resigning has to be in there.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I don't think Cousins to Warriors is #2, I'd say 5-ish. Warriors are heavy favorites already, just means they win by more points or more easily. Plus Cousins doesn't play until after all-star break.

Put the draft day trade between Atlanta and Dallas as #2.

Washington signing Dwight Howard as #5,000

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't think Cousins to Warriors is #2, I'd say 5-ish. Warriors are heavy favorites already, just means they win by more points or more easily. Plus Cousins doesn't play until after all-star break.

Put the draft day trade between Atlanta and Dallas as #2.

Washington signing Dwight Howard as #5,000

We don't know who won the Atlanta/Dallas trade, and we won't know for a couple of years.

I think Howard will be worth and extra 3-4 wins in November and December, and an extra 6-8 losses after that when his teammates realize they hate him.