NBA Off-Season Thread

[tzznandrew]

Respectfully, this bolded section strikes as wishful thinking. With his combination of size, strength and passing, he can be the best player on a very good team even when his athleticism diminishes. One minor injury isn't a huge concern and the only reason it sticks out is because how freakish it was that he never got hurt before.

I mean, sure? I hedged and gave him 3 years (including this one).

But, seriously, find me a player at 36 who is the best player on a really good team.

The list is Karl Malone and Kareem (though Magic was probably the best player that year).

And neither of them, at that age, had the mileage LeBron has. What happened this year is going to happen more and more frequently, if history is our guide.

 

[Walker11]

I mean, sure? I hedged and gave him 3 years (including this one).

But, seriously, find me a player at 36 who is the best player on a really good team.

The list is Karl Malone and Kareem (though Magic was probably the best player that year).

And neither of them, at that age, had the mileage LeBron has. What happened this year is going to happen more and more frequently, if history is our guide.

It will be fun to watch how it unfolds. I am a LeBron hater but I just lean the opposite way on this one. His old man game seems like it will translate extremely well but you are right that it will depend on his body.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It will be fun to watch how it unfolds. I am a LeBron hater but I just lean the opposite way on this one. His old man game seems like it will translate extremely well but you are right that it will depend on his body.

Old man game doesn't work at the 2 or the 3 because there is no way to hide on defense. Every team has an athletic 2 and 3 that can bust geezers off the dribble. The NBA players that are effective late into their career, like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, still hit a wall in their early 30's, and became secondary players after that. Pierce's last season above 15 ppg was when he was 35. Ray scored 18 ppg at 33, then had two seasons of 16 ppg, then dropped to 13. Michael Jordan averaged in the 20's at 38 and 39, but A) He was Michael Jordan, and B) that was after 3 years of resting his body. Kobe averaged 27 ppg at 34, but then played 6 and 35 games the next two years, and the Lakers were abysmal in his final year when he averaged 17 ppg.

Drexler averaged 18 ppg at 35, and then he hung it up. The last time Vince Carter scored over 15 ppg in a season was when he was 31. The next tier of players like Rip Hamilton or Tracy McGrady hit the wall around 30.

Those guys abive are first ballot HoFers, and they mostly hit the wall around 33 to 35. None of them carried a team deep into the playoffs in their mid-30's. Lebron is turning 35 this December. He is a freak, and can probably be the #2 to someone like AD, but if the Lakers end up with Cousins or DRose out of free agency, they aren't going to be much better next year than they are this year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I'll believe it when I see it.

North Korea is a more desirable landing spot than the Knicks.

Disagree. New York is still New York, even if the Knicks are the Knicks. I think it will be Kyrie.

 

[Lefty2one]

I don't think lolKnicks is a thing amongst NBA players anymore. Just low hanging fruit for fans. Comments lumping the Knicks along with North Korea are ignorant.

Dolan hasn't been involved for five years--the proof of that was the Porzingis deal; there is no way in hell he signs off on a trade like that a decade ago--and Perry and Fizdale have good reputations around the league (just don't ask Marc Gasol). Porzingis was collateral damage of the toxic Phil/Melo era but the front office has been fine since Perry was hired. They've largely been doing things the right way for a few years now. They haven't had, and executed, a multi-year vision like this before. They've stayed patient, kept their picks and acquired more.

I still don't think they'll land KD + Kyrie--though there is a ton of smoke there, unlike in 2010--but it's not because players are afraid of the organization's competency.

 

[Walker11]

Old man game doesn't work at the 2 or the 3 because there is no way to hide on defense. Every team has an athletic 2 and 3 that can bust geezers off the dribble. The NBA players that are effective late into their career, like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, still hit a wall in their early 30's, and became secondary players after that. Pierce's last season above 15 ppg was when he was 35. Ray scored 18 ppg at 33, then had two seasons of 16 ppg, then dropped to 13. Michael Jordan averaged in the 20's at 38 and 39, but A) He was Michael Jordan, and B) that was after 3 years of resting his body. Kobe averaged 27 ppg at 34, but then played 6 and 35 games the next two years, and the Lakers were abysmal in his final year when he averaged 17 ppg.

Drexler averaged 18 ppg at 35, and then he hung it up. The last time Vince Carter scored over 15 ppg in a season was when he was 31. The next tier of players like Rip Hamilton or Tracy McGrady hit the wall around 30.

Those guys abive are first ballot HoFers, and they mostly hit the wall around 33 to 35. None of them carried a team deep into the playoffs in their mid-30's. Lebron is turning 35 this December. He is a freak, and can probably be the #2 to someone like AD, but if the Lakers end up with Cousins or DRose out of free agency, they aren't going to be much better next year than they are this year.

This is good info. What old LeBron has going for him that these guys didn't is that he is enormous and one of the smartest players and best passers ever. I think he can be the best player on a championship caliber team but not the primary scorer. Old LeBron would be best paired with a guy like Kyrie.

 

[Walker11]

I don't think lolKnicks is a thing amongst NBA players anymore. Just low hanging fruit for fans. Comments lumping the Knicks along with North Korea are ignorant.

Dolan hasn't been involved for five years--the proof of that was the Porzingis deal; there is no way in hell he signs off on a trade like that a decade ago--and Perry and Fizdale have good reputations around the league (just don't ask Marc Gasol). Porzingis was collateral damage of the toxic Phil/Melo era but the front office has been fine since Perry was hired. They've largely been doing things the right way for a few years now. They haven't had, and executed, a multi-year vision like this before. They've stayed patient, kept their picks and acquired more.

I still don't think they'll land KD + Kyrie--though there is a ton of smoke there, unlike in 2010--but it's not because players are afraid of the organization's competency.

Sam Amick said that it was bizarre how forward and open KD's camp has been in regards to his intentions on joining the Knicks.

 

[Lefty2one]

Sam Amick said that it was bizarre how forward and open KD's camp has been in regards to his intentions on joining the Knicks.

I know. As I said, there's a ton of smoke.

I've been a Knicks fan for 30 years; we've never landed a marquee free agent. I'm scarred to the point that I won't believe it until I see it.

 

[tzznandrew]

I know. As I said, there's a ton of smoke.

I've been a Knicks fan for 30 years; we've never landed a marquee free agent. I'm scarred to the point that I won't believe it until I see it.

As a Celtics fan I'm almost ready for the inevitable KD-Kyrie pairing in NY given how the last 30 or so years (pretty much my entire life) as gone for the Cs. I wouldn't even begrude NY. It's better for the cities like NY, Boston, Philly, Chicago, LA, to have good teams...though the LAL disaster has been especially satisfactory for me.

 

[Walker11]

I know. As I said, there's a ton of smoke.

I've been a Knicks fan for 30 years; we've never landed a marquee free agent. I'm scarred to the point that I won't believe it until I see it.

Me too buddy. I think it's happening.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is good info. What old LeBron has going for him that these guys didn't is that he is enormous and one of the smartest players and best passers ever. I think he can be the best player on a championship caliber team but not the primary scorer. Old LeBron would be best paired with a guy like Kyrie.

Is LeBron one of the smartest players ever? Is there a test for that? I went through about 2 dozen top 2's and 3's from the last 30 years to come up with my list. The reality is that even all star wings hit a wall in their early 30's. The best of the best like Drexler or Ray make it to their mid-30's. I found two players, Kobe and Jordan, that played at a high level into their late 30's, and both of them had seasons late in their career where they played limited minutes or not at all (and therefore put less wear and tear on their body), and played for bad teams late in their career so they were basically there to sell tickets. They also happen to be two of the best players of all time.

LeBron thinks he is going to lead a team to another championship at 35. I also don't think his size helps. That is just more weight on his joints and more ways for him to get hurt.

If I were the Lakers, I would go hard after AD, but if it wasn't going to happen, pull the plug and look somewhere else. They need to find a co-star for Lebron. They can't waste another season. They also have to get Lebron down to 30 mpg, and sit him at least every other back-to-back. Fatigue is cumulative, especially for older players, and big minutes significantly increases the chance of injury.

Edit: the Lakers should talk to high payroll teams that missed their window and may want to start over. Wizards are one. Maybe Detroit.

 

[intlzncster]

Is LeBron one of the smartest players ever? Is there a test for that? I went through about 2 dozen top 2's and 3's from the last 30 years to come up with my list. The reality is that even all star wings hit a wall in their early 30's. The best of the best like Drexler or Ray make it to their mid-30's. I found two players, Kobe and Jordan, that played at a high level into their late 30's, and both of them had seasons late in their career where they played limited minutes or not at all (and therefore put less wear and tear on their body), and played for bad teams late in their career so they were basically there to sell tickets. They also happen to be two of the best players of all time.

LeBron thinks he is going to lead a team to another championship at 35. I also don't think his size helps. That is just more weight on his joints and more ways for him to get hurt.

If I were the Lakers, I would go hard after AD, but if it wasn't going to happen, pull the plug and look somewhere else. They need to find a co-star for Lebron. They can't waste another season. They also have to get Lebron down to 30 mpg, and sit him at least every other back-to-back. Fatigue is cumulative, especially for older players, and big minutes significantly increases the chance of injury.

Edit: the Lakers should talk to high payroll teams that missed their window and may want to start over. Wizards are one. Maybe Detroit.

I always assumed he was going to become a Karl Malone-esque PF in his later years.

 

[auror]

Celtics just won AT Warriors by 33.

So who the $#(% knows anything.

 

[intlzncster]

Celtics just won AT Warriors by 33.

So who the $#(% knows anything.

Hayward coming off the bench. Starting him was killing the Cs this year.

 

[Walker11]

I always assumed he was going to become a Karl Malone-esque PF in his later years.

Right. It was a lot of data which is nice but I don't see the point of comparing him to 2s and 3s at this point in time.

 

[Walker11]

Hayward coming off the bench. Starting him was killing the Cs this year.

He has been coming off the bench for 3.5 months now.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I always assumed he was going to become a Karl Malone-esque PF in his later years.

Karl Malone was carrying a good team late into his 30's. He was a little taller, and he had been playing inside his whole career. Not an easy transition to make, and that was a different era, but that is basically the model for LeBron.

 

[InKembaITrust]

KD & AD to Boston next season.

Starting lineup:

Kyrie
Smart
Hayward
KD
AD

 

[Lefty2one]

KD & AD to Boston next season.

Starting lineup:

Kyrie
Smart
Hayward
KD
AD

I can't imagine that's financially possible unless you convince (or drug) the Pels to take on Horford's contract.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I can't imagine that's financially possible unless you convince (or drug) the Pels to take on Horford's contract.

It's not financially possible, but Horford is a free agent. The Celtics can afford 2 max(ish) contracts, or 3 if they want to wipe out their bench. Hayward's is one, and he isn't going anywhere.

 

[Lefty2one]

Horford has a player option. I can't image a player at this stage of his career would turn down a $30m option. He seems to love playing in Boston too.

 

[the Q]

I can't imagine that's financially possible unless you convince (or drug) the Pels to take on Horford's contract.

Horford needs to be moved either way to get brow

 

[InKembaITrust]

I can't imagine that's financially possible unless you convince (or drug) the Pels to take on Horford's contract.

Would only be for one year.

Still a valuable piece for other teams. I see him as part of the AD trade.

 

[the Q]

Would only be for one year.

Still a valuable piece for other teams. I see him as part of the AD trade.

It’s probably a 3 team deal if Boston gets brow. Because of horford

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Clippers are in an incredible spot from a salary cap perspective. They are good at 38-29, which includes 8-4 since trading Harris despite Chandler not playing a game for them yet. They will have over $50 million of cap space heading into the summer, and even the re-signings they have coming up are of early 30's role players that will be affordable. This team is a Kawhi Leonard away from challenging in the West, especially if Durant leaves Golden State.

 

[tzznandrew]

Lakers are pretty much dead. Good.

Celtics and Warriors keep yo-yoing...

Going to be the most compelling post-season in a while in the NBA. The East has a lot of good teams, and the West has a Warriors team that doesn't seem to like each other much anymore. They'll almost certainly still win, but they aren't going to wreck everyone, and the team they meet in the Finals will be better than the last two Cavs iterations.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Lakers are pretty much dead. Good.

Will be interesting to see how the Lakers use LeBron for the rest of the season. They have a chance of getting a decent draft pick

 

[traitor71]

Lakers are pretty much dead. Good.

Celtics and Warriors keep yo-yoing...

Going to be the most compelling post-season in a while in the NBA. The East has a lot of good teams, and the West has a Warriors team that doesn't seem to like each other much anymore. They'll almost certainly still win, but they aren't going to wreck everyone, and the team they meet in the Finals will be better than the last two Cavs iterations.

I think Houston is going to catch Denver and we will end up with Houston and Golden State in the West finals again. That is assuming both remain healthy of course. The East feels harder to figure because the top teams don't have playoff success that you can point to.