NBA Off-Season Thread

[auror]

The Lakers will trade for Davis this offseason to play him with LeBron next year since they can't afford to miss the playoffs with LeBron 2 years in a row.

They will go all in and mortgage their future for LeBron's window, plus their own pick is now likely in the lottery they can trade. I wouldn't be surprised if they sign Jimmy Butler as well, and Klay would be their top choice if he leaves.

The Celtics dysfunction is going to give them 2nd thoughts about trading Tatum for a 1-year rental of Davis, so their package is going to be weaker than expected and the Lakers will push and make it happen.

 

[Lefty2one]

The Lakers will trade for Davis this offseason to play him with LeBron next year since they can't afford to miss the playoffs with LeBron 2 years in a row.

They will go all in and mortgage their future for LeBron's window, plus their own pick is now likely in the lottery they can trade. I wouldn't be surprised if they sign Jimmy Butler as well, and Klay would be their top choice if he leaves.

The interesting part is that:

1) NOP still has to agree to LAL's offer, though it will likely be the best LAL will get.
2) I'm not sold that LeBron + AD + filler is going to give you a great ceiling in the West.

By every metric AD is one of the game's best but at some point it needs to translate to wins on the court and deep postseason runs. A small part of me wonders if AD is this generation's Carmelo, despite the fact that AD is a great defender and isn't a blackhole on offense.

If I'm Boston and Kyrie leaves (he's leaving), I don't bother with AD. I continue my own rebuild and do things the long way.

 

[Walker11]

And if and when he gets out there, LeBron would be turning 36. Maybe he's like Malone and will be very good at 36, but LeBron's injury signals that we're in late phase LeBron time, and his time as the best player on a very good team is pretty much over unless they get someone really good next year or make some good moves.

He has probably 3 more years left at near peak ability, barring injury...

Respectfully, this bolded section strikes as wishful thinking. With his combination of size, strength and passing, he can be the best player on a very good team even when his athleticism diminishes. One minor injury isn't a huge concern and the only reason it sticks out is because how freakish it was that he never got hurt before.

 

[Stainmaster]

They will get someone decent to go there because it is Lebron and LA, but look at the top Free Agents:

Kawhi - wants to go to LA, but rumored to not want to play with Lebron and Clippers have the cap space.
Klay Thompson - staying with Golden State most likely
Durant - Probably New York or Golden State
Kyrie - New York?
Jimmy Butler - candidate to go to Lakers
Kemba - Likely Charlotte
Porzingis - Dallas
Harris - 76ers can sign Harris or Butler, but not both. I would sign Harris if I was them.
Middleton - Bucks
Cousins - could go anywhere - will chase biggest paycheck
Horford - could go anywhere
Vucevic -May stay in Orlando
Russell - probably staying in Brooklyn
Randle - I think he wants to be on a winner.
Mirotic - will likely stay in Milwaukee
Derrick Rose - He could go to LA. This is the kind of player Magic Johnson would badly overpay for.

Who does LA go after? Jimmy Butler? The last thing the Lakers need is another locker room problem. Horford or Rose? Good players way past their prime. Cousins is going to be expensive. Randle? They could have had him for $8MM/year. He is going to cost them close to $20MM/year this summer and want 4 years.

There are multiple teams with a ton of cap space, including big market teams like the Hawks, Clippers, Knicks, Bulls, and Nets. Of the smaller market teams, Indiana is really good, and has a ton of cap space, and Sacramento is on the rise and can chase top players.

What makes it worse for the Lakers is that there are a lot of teams with a little bit of cap space that will push up the salaries of the second tier players. The Lakers also have a bunch of guys on rookie contracts that need to be moved soon to have any trade value.

The Lakers want Davis, but they don't have the goods or the Pelicans would have already made a trade.

Nobody is going to New York. At all.

 

[Walker11]

AD is going to end up in the Lakers, especially if Ingram continues to look like a stud. Btw, did anybody see the second spectrum telecast of the Lakers Bucks this weekend? I thought the player view was so cool and having Lowe and Goldsberry give their real time commentary spoiled me.

 

[auror]

Nobody is going to New York. At all.

KD is 100% going to New York. His bags are packed already.

 

[Stainmaster]

KD is 100% going to New York. His bags are packed already.

Wherever he's going, it ain't New York.

 

[auror]

Wherever he's going, it ain't New York.

"Others were more blunt. "It means they're pretty sure they're getting KD," said a rival exec who believes the Knicks have already been told Durant is coming. "

"That Durant's agent, the Manhattan-based Rich Kleiman, has openly gushed about his Knicks fandom (and his aspirations to run the team) only added life to the narrative. "

"Royal Ivey, perhaps Durant’s best friend, is on David Fizdale’s coaching staff."

"He's a hooper who needs people like Kleiman and Thirty Five Ventures marketing whiz Sarah Flynn to build his business and brand for him. The company has 10 employees at the moment, but it is moving into a new office building in New York City as it continues what Durant insists is a careful expansion "

 

[Stainmaster]

"Others were more blunt. "It means they're pretty sure they're getting KD," said a rival exec who believes the Knicks have already been told Durant is coming. "

"That Durant's agent, the Manhattan-based Rich Kleiman, has openly gushed about his Knicks fandom (and his aspirations to run the team) only added life to the narrative. "

"Royal Ivey, perhaps Durant’s best friend, is on David Fizdale’s coaching staff."

I'll believe it when I see it.

North Korea is a more desirable landing spot than the Knicks.

 

[tzznandrew]

Respectfully, this bolded section strikes as wishful thinking. With his combination of size, strength and passing, he can be the best player on a very good team even when his athleticism diminishes. One minor injury isn't a huge concern and the only reason it sticks out is because how freakish it was that he never got hurt before.

I mean, sure? I hedged and gave him 3 years (including this one).

But, seriously, find me a player at 36 who is the best player on a really good team.

The list is Karl Malone and Kareem (though Magic was probably the best player that year).

And neither of them, at that age, had the mileage LeBron has. What happened this year is going to happen more and more frequently, if history is our guide.

 

[Walker11]

I mean, sure? I hedged and gave him 3 years (including this one).

But, seriously, find me a player at 36 who is the best player on a really good team.

The list is Karl Malone and Kareem (though Magic was probably the best player that year).

And neither of them, at that age, had the mileage LeBron has. What happened this year is going to happen more and more frequently, if history is our guide.

It will be fun to watch how it unfolds. I am a LeBron hater but I just lean the opposite way on this one. His old man game seems like it will translate extremely well but you are right that it will depend on his body.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It will be fun to watch how it unfolds. I am a LeBron hater but I just lean the opposite way on this one. His old man game seems like it will translate extremely well but you are right that it will depend on his body.

Old man game doesn't work at the 2 or the 3 because there is no way to hide on defense. Every team has an athletic 2 and 3 that can bust geezers off the dribble. The NBA players that are effective late into their career, like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, still hit a wall in their early 30's, and became secondary players after that. Pierce's last season above 15 ppg was when he was 35. Ray scored 18 ppg at 33, then had two seasons of 16 ppg, then dropped to 13. Michael Jordan averaged in the 20's at 38 and 39, but A) He was Michael Jordan, and B) that was after 3 years of resting his body. Kobe averaged 27 ppg at 34, but then played 6 and 35 games the next two years, and the Lakers were abysmal in his final year when he averaged 17 ppg.

Drexler averaged 18 ppg at 35, and then he hung it up. The last time Vince Carter scored over 15 ppg in a season was when he was 31. The next tier of players like Rip Hamilton or Tracy McGrady hit the wall around 30.

Those guys abive are first ballot HoFers, and they mostly hit the wall around 33 to 35. None of them carried a team deep into the playoffs in their mid-30's. Lebron is turning 35 this December. He is a freak, and can probably be the #2 to someone like AD, but if the Lakers end up with Cousins or DRose out of free agency, they aren't going to be much better next year than they are this year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I'll believe it when I see it.

North Korea is a more desirable landing spot than the Knicks.

Disagree. New York is still New York, even if the Knicks are the Knicks. I think it will be Kyrie.

 

[Lefty2one]

I don't think lolKnicks is a thing amongst NBA players anymore. Just low hanging fruit for fans. Comments lumping the Knicks along with North Korea are ignorant.

Dolan hasn't been involved for five years--the proof of that was the Porzingis deal; there is no way in hell he signs off on a trade like that a decade ago--and Perry and Fizdale have good reputations around the league (just don't ask Marc Gasol). Porzingis was collateral damage of the toxic Phil/Melo era but the front office has been fine since Perry was hired. They've largely been doing things the right way for a few years now. They haven't had, and executed, a multi-year vision like this before. They've stayed patient, kept their picks and acquired more.

I still don't think they'll land KD + Kyrie--though there is a ton of smoke there, unlike in 2010--but it's not because players are afraid of the organization's competency.

 

[Walker11]

Old man game doesn't work at the 2 or the 3 because there is no way to hide on defense. Every team has an athletic 2 and 3 that can bust geezers off the dribble. The NBA players that are effective late into their career, like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, still hit a wall in their early 30's, and became secondary players after that. Pierce's last season above 15 ppg was when he was 35. Ray scored 18 ppg at 33, then had two seasons of 16 ppg, then dropped to 13. Michael Jordan averaged in the 20's at 38 and 39, but A) He was Michael Jordan, and B) that was after 3 years of resting his body. Kobe averaged 27 ppg at 34, but then played 6 and 35 games the next two years, and the Lakers were abysmal in his final year when he averaged 17 ppg.

Drexler averaged 18 ppg at 35, and then he hung it up. The last time Vince Carter scored over 15 ppg in a season was when he was 31. The next tier of players like Rip Hamilton or Tracy McGrady hit the wall around 30.

Those guys abive are first ballot HoFers, and they mostly hit the wall around 33 to 35. None of them carried a team deep into the playoffs in their mid-30's. Lebron is turning 35 this December. He is a freak, and can probably be the #2 to someone like AD, but if the Lakers end up with Cousins or DRose out of free agency, they aren't going to be much better next year than they are this year.

This is good info. What old LeBron has going for him that these guys didn't is that he is enormous and one of the smartest players and best passers ever. I think he can be the best player on a championship caliber team but not the primary scorer. Old LeBron would be best paired with a guy like Kyrie.

 

[Walker11]

I don't think lolKnicks is a thing amongst NBA players anymore. Just low hanging fruit for fans. Comments lumping the Knicks along with North Korea are ignorant.

Dolan hasn't been involved for five years--the proof of that was the Porzingis deal; there is no way in hell he signs off on a trade like that a decade ago--and Perry and Fizdale have good reputations around the league (just don't ask Marc Gasol). Porzingis was collateral damage of the toxic Phil/Melo era but the front office has been fine since Perry was hired. They've largely been doing things the right way for a few years now. They haven't had, and executed, a multi-year vision like this before. They've stayed patient, kept their picks and acquired more.

I still don't think they'll land KD + Kyrie--though there is a ton of smoke there, unlike in 2010--but it's not because players are afraid of the organization's competency.

Sam Amick said that it was bizarre how forward and open KD's camp has been in regards to his intentions on joining the Knicks.

 

[Lefty2one]

Sam Amick said that it was bizarre how forward and open KD's camp has been in regards to his intentions on joining the Knicks.

I know. As I said, there's a ton of smoke.

I've been a Knicks fan for 30 years; we've never landed a marquee free agent. I'm scarred to the point that I won't believe it until I see it.

 

[tzznandrew]

I know. As I said, there's a ton of smoke.

I've been a Knicks fan for 30 years; we've never landed a marquee free agent. I'm scarred to the point that I won't believe it until I see it.

As a Celtics fan I'm almost ready for the inevitable KD-Kyrie pairing in NY given how the last 30 or so years (pretty much my entire life) as gone for the Cs. I wouldn't even begrude NY. It's better for the cities like NY, Boston, Philly, Chicago, LA, to have good teams...though the LAL disaster has been especially satisfactory for me.

 

[Walker11]

I know. As I said, there's a ton of smoke.

I've been a Knicks fan for 30 years; we've never landed a marquee free agent. I'm scarred to the point that I won't believe it until I see it.

Me too buddy. I think it's happening.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is good info. What old LeBron has going for him that these guys didn't is that he is enormous and one of the smartest players and best passers ever. I think he can be the best player on a championship caliber team but not the primary scorer. Old LeBron would be best paired with a guy like Kyrie.

Is LeBron one of the smartest players ever? Is there a test for that? I went through about 2 dozen top 2's and 3's from the last 30 years to come up with my list. The reality is that even all star wings hit a wall in their early 30's. The best of the best like Drexler or Ray make it to their mid-30's. I found two players, Kobe and Jordan, that played at a high level into their late 30's, and both of them had seasons late in their career where they played limited minutes or not at all (and therefore put less wear and tear on their body), and played for bad teams late in their career so they were basically there to sell tickets. They also happen to be two of the best players of all time.

LeBron thinks he is going to lead a team to another championship at 35. I also don't think his size helps. That is just more weight on his joints and more ways for him to get hurt.

If I were the Lakers, I would go hard after AD, but if it wasn't going to happen, pull the plug and look somewhere else. They need to find a co-star for Lebron. They can't waste another season. They also have to get Lebron down to 30 mpg, and sit him at least every other back-to-back. Fatigue is cumulative, especially for older players, and big minutes significantly increases the chance of injury.

Edit: the Lakers should talk to high payroll teams that missed their window and may want to start over. Wizards are one. Maybe Detroit.

 

[intlzncster]

Is LeBron one of the smartest players ever? Is there a test for that? I went through about 2 dozen top 2's and 3's from the last 30 years to come up with my list. The reality is that even all star wings hit a wall in their early 30's. The best of the best like Drexler or Ray make it to their mid-30's. I found two players, Kobe and Jordan, that played at a high level into their late 30's, and both of them had seasons late in their career where they played limited minutes or not at all (and therefore put less wear and tear on their body), and played for bad teams late in their career so they were basically there to sell tickets. They also happen to be two of the best players of all time.

LeBron thinks he is going to lead a team to another championship at 35. I also don't think his size helps. That is just more weight on his joints and more ways for him to get hurt.

If I were the Lakers, I would go hard after AD, but if it wasn't going to happen, pull the plug and look somewhere else. They need to find a co-star for Lebron. They can't waste another season. They also have to get Lebron down to 30 mpg, and sit him at least every other back-to-back. Fatigue is cumulative, especially for older players, and big minutes significantly increases the chance of injury.

Edit: the Lakers should talk to high payroll teams that missed their window and may want to start over. Wizards are one. Maybe Detroit.

I always assumed he was going to become a Karl Malone-esque PF in his later years.

 

[auror]

Celtics just won AT Warriors by 33.

So who the $#(% knows anything.

 

[intlzncster]

Celtics just won AT Warriors by 33.

So who the $#(% knows anything.

Hayward coming off the bench. Starting him was killing the Cs this year.

 

[Walker11]

I always assumed he was going to become a Karl Malone-esque PF in his later years.

Right. It was a lot of data which is nice but I don't see the point of comparing him to 2s and 3s at this point in time.

 

[Walker11]

Hayward coming off the bench. Starting him was killing the Cs this year.

He has been coming off the bench for 3.5 months now.