NBA Off-Season Thread

[Dogdeacon]

I don't think Cousins to Warriors is #2, I'd say 5-ish. Warriors are heavy favorites already, just means they win by more points or more easily. Plus Cousins doesn't play until after all-star break.

Put the draft day trade between Atlanta and Dallas as #2.

Washington signing Dwight Howard as #5,000

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't think Cousins to Warriors is #2, I'd say 5-ish. Warriors are heavy favorites already, just means they win by more points or more easily. Plus Cousins doesn't play until after all-star break.

Put the draft day trade between Atlanta and Dallas as #2.

Washington signing Dwight Howard as #5,000

We don't know who won the Atlanta/Dallas trade, and we won't know for a couple of years.

I think Howard will be worth and extra 3-4 wins in November and December, and an extra 6-8 losses after that when his teammates realize they hate him.

 

[Dogdeacon]

We don't know who won the Atlanta/Dallas trade, and we won't know for a couple of years.

I think Howard will be worth and extra 3-4 wins in November and December, and an extra 6-8 losses after that when his teammates realize they hate him.

Of course we don't know, I agree with consensus that Dallas won but I haven't ever watched Doncic play, so relying on opinions of others. Regardless though it was a big move for TWO teams and involved 2 of the most eyeballed rookies, so a lot more important to league landscape for next year & beyond vs the 30 regular season games and 16 playoff wins that Boogie will play a bit part in.

 

[the Q]

Of course we don't know, I agree with consensus that Dallas won but I haven't ever watched Doncic play, so relying on opinions of others. Regardless though it was a big move for TWO teams and involved 2 of the most eyeballed rookies, so a lot more important to league landscape for next year & beyond vs the 30 regular season games and 16 playoff wins that Boogie will play a bit part in.

I’m still baffled they valued Harrison Barnes more than a lottery pick.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Lowe: Just how good can these young Bulls become?

Jabari Parker still whining about playing time last year.

 

[Storrs South]

 

[nelsonmuntz]

IIRC Vegas has the Over/Under for wins at 50.5 for the Lakers. So is 50 wins not enough to make the playoffs in the West? Last year I believe something like seeds 3-10 were separated by 3 or 4 wins. It may not be so historically close next season, but it’s way too early to call now. Lots of solid teams, and several won’t make the playoffs.

Spurs will take a significant step back. I see zero reason to trust Denver yet.

I see the Lakers as probably the third or fourth best team in the West behind GS and Houston, and maybe Portland, right now.

Bump. Lakers are 4.5 games back with 19 games left. They have the 7th hardest remaining schedule while the Clippers have #17 and the Spurs have #21.

Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Unless someone gets hurt, the Spurs and Clips probably both go at least .500 the rest of the way. Let's say the Spurs go .500 from here on out, and finish 44-38. The Lakers would have to go 14-5 against a tough remaining schedule just to tie the Clippers or Spurs. Unfortunately for the Lakers, they definitely lose a tiebreaker vs. Spurs (1-3 head to head), and need to sweep their remaining games against the Clippers to win a tiebreaker against the Clips.

The Lakers would need to go 15-4 to finish ahead of a 44-38 Spurs team because the Spurs went 3-1 this season against the Lakers.

Not looking good for Lebron.

 

[UofCT]

The Lakers are a total disaster

 

[tzznandrew]

Bump. Lakers are 4.5 games back with 19 games left. They have the 7th hardest remaining schedule while the Clippers have #17 and the Spurs have #21.

Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Unless someone gets hurt, the Spurs and Clips probably both go at least .500 the rest of the way. Let's say the Spurs go .500 from here on out, and finish 44-38. The Lakers would have to go 14-5 against a tough remaining schedule just to tie the Clippers or Spurs. Unfortunately for the Lakers, they definitely lose a tiebreaker vs. Spurs (1-3 head to head), and need to sweep their remaining games against the Clippers to win a tiebreaker against the Clips.

The Lakers would need to go 15-4 to finish ahead of a 44-38 Spurs team because the Spurs went 3-1 this season against the Lakers.

Not looking good for Lebron.

And it's not just that he was injured for a bunch of games. Their winning percentage with him is still behind the Clips and Spurs (though obviously much closer).

You never count out LeBron, but holy hell. This is what people were saying about the difference between the East and West: you can suck for a month or two in the East and still easily make the playoffs. You suck for a month or two in the West and you're nestled neatly between the Timberwolves and the Kings in the 10th spot with a huge uphill struggle to get into the #8 position.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Bump. Lakers are 4.5 games back with 19 games left. They have the 7th hardest remaining schedule while the Clippers have #17 and the Spurs have #21.

Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Unless someone gets hurt, the Spurs and Clips probably both go at least .500 the rest of the way. Let's say the Spurs go .500 from here on out, and finish 44-38. The Lakers would have to go 14-5 against a tough remaining schedule just to tie the Clippers or Spurs. Unfortunately for the Lakers, they definitely lose a tiebreaker vs. Spurs (1-3 head to head), and need to sweep their remaining games against the Clippers to win a tiebreaker against the Clips.

The Lakers would need to go 15-4 to finish ahead of a 44-38 Spurs team because the Spurs went 3-1 this season against the Lakers.

Not looking good for Lebron.

They were on about a 48-49 win pace when he got injuried

He’s been (as has the team without Lonzo) pretty bad defensively since coming back but some of that has to be him choosing his spots a) easing himself back in and b) because he has to do so much on the offensive end right now.

Luke Walton has not been great himself. I don’t think they’re going to make it either. It’s mostly out of their hands now

 

[uconnbaseball]

Even if they did make it, they would be quickly annihalated by Golden State or Denver (who is the worst possible match-up for them). They need the 6 seed to have any shot at doing damage and that is not happening.

 

[auror]

Luke Walton has not been great himself. I don’t think they’re going to make it either. It’s mostly out of their hands now

What's Walton supposed to do? He can't tell LeBron anything. Lonzo's been out for the last 6 weeks. Hart's been banged up. The veteran additions/re-signings to this team were atrocious at the time and looks just as atrocious now (Rondo, Stephenson, Beasley, McGee, KCP, Chandler).

This is 100% on the front office.

 

[Rocktheworld]

What's Walton supposed to do? He can't tell LeBron anything. Lonzo's been out for the last 6 weeks. Hart's been banged up. The veteran additions/re-signings to this team were atrocious at the time and looks just as atrocious now (Rondo, Stephenson, Beasley, McGee, KCP, Chandler).

This is 100% on the front office.

I hear you on the roster. And yes, Lonzo and Hart being limited/hurt is affecting things; namely, respectively, defense and shooting.

But Walton’s rotations and use of minutes has been asinine at times of late

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What's Walton supposed to do? He can't tell LeBron anything. Lonzo's been out for the last 6 weeks. Hart's been banged up. The veteran additions/re-signings to this team were atrocious at the time and looks just as atrocious now (Rondo, Stephenson, Beasley, McGee, KCP, Chandler).

This is 100% on the front office.

The Lakers would have another 5 wins at least if they had kept Randle and Lopez and not signed all the morons this season. Lebron getting hurt is not bad luck, it is a function of being 34 years old and playing too many minutes at one of the most athletically demanding sports at the highest level in the world against supreme athletes that are 7-13 years younger.

The Lakers couldn't have screwed this up any worse after getting Lebron. Lebron also has to take some responsibility since he picked this goat rodeo. Lebron could have gone to Philadelphia, played a max of 30 minutes a game, taken the second of back to back games off, and likely be healthy and on his way to a 1 or 2 seed in the East.

 

[intlzncster]

What's Walton supposed to do? He can't tell LeBron anything. Lonzo's been out for the last 6 weeks. Hart's been banged up. The veteran additions/re-signings to this team were atrocious at the time and looks just as atrocious now (Rondo, Stephenson, Beasley, McGee, KCP, Chandler).

This is 100% on the front office.

LeBron's not even interested in the huddle anymore.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Lakers lose to Clippers last night. This was a brutal night on a lot of levels. Spurs, Clippers and Kings all won, and the Lakers have to pass 2 of those teams to get the 8 seed.

The Spurs won one of their least winnable games left by beating the Nuggets, while the Clippers victory over the Lakers puts the Lakers in tiebreaker hell. The Spurs are 3-1 vs. the Lakers, so the Lakers can't tie with the Spurs, and now the Clippers have guaranteed at least a tie in the season series with the Lakers. The next tiebreaker is division record, and the Clippers are 3.5 games up on that one with only 6 games left against division opponents. For those scoring at home, Sacramento has the 25th easiest remaining schedule, and that is after beating the Knicks last night.

Lebron doesn't want to sit, but playing him more than 25 minutes a game is idiotic at this point.

I think the NBA is tough to figure out sometimes, but giving up Randle and Lopez and signing the stars of last year's NBA Bloopers Reel seemed pretty stupid when it happened. Lopez is 12.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.1 apg, and 2.2 bpg in 28 mpg. More importantly, he is a smart veteran that is as responsible as anyone for taking a 40-something win team into the best record in the NBA. Randle is 20.7 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 3.0 apg and shooting 53% from the field. Do you think the Lakers could use those two right now?

 

[Walker11]

Lakers lose to Clippers last night. This was a brutal night on a lot of levels. Spurs, Clippers and Kings all won, and the Lakers have to pass 2 of those teams to get the 8 seed.

The Spurs won one of their least winnable games left by beating the Nuggets, while the Clippers victory over the Lakers puts the Lakers in tiebreaker hell. The Spurs are 3-1 vs. the Lakers, so the Lakers can't tie with the Spurs, and now the Clippers have guaranteed at least a tie in the season series with the Lakers. The next tiebreaker is division record, and the Clippers are 3.5 games up on that one with only 6 games left against division opponents. For those scoring at home, Sacramento has the 25th easiest remaining schedule, and that is after beating the Knicks last night.

Lebron doesn't want to sit, but playing him more than 25 minutes a game is idiotic at this point.

I think the NBA is tough to figure out sometimes, but giving up Randle and Lopez and signing the stars of last year's NBA Bloopers Reel seemed pretty stupid when it happened. Lopez is 12.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.1 apg, and 2.2 bpg in 28 mpg. More importantly, he is a smart veteran that is as responsible as anyone for taking a 40-something win team into the best record in the NBA. Randle is 20.7 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 3.0 apg and shooting 53% from the field. Do you think the Lakers could use those two right now?

There is a gif of Kuzma pushing LeBron towards a shooter nudging him to defend that is hilarious. I would post it if I wasn't in my car right now but I'm sure you can easily look it up.

 

[traitor71]

What happens if they fail to bring in anyone to play with LeBron next year? You would think they would be able to, but good lord do the Lakers seem to have a dysfunctional feel to them. I can only imagine what sort of a clown show it will be next year if they don't bring in some legit players.

 

[UofCT]

What happens if they fail to bring in anyone to play with LeBron next year? You would think they would be able to, but good lord do the Lakers seem to have a dysfunctional feel to them. I can only imagine what sort of a clown show it will be next year if they don't bring in some legit players.

He would demand a trade OR retire..

 

[Husky25]

What happens if they fail to bring in anyone to play with LeBron next year?

That would be awesome.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What happens if they fail to bring in anyone to play with LeBron next year? You would think they would be able to, but good lord do the Lakers seem to have a dysfunctional feel to them. I can only imagine what sort of a clown show it will be next year if they don't bring in some legit players.

They will get someone decent to go there because it is Lebron and LA, but look at the top Free Agents:

Kawhi - wants to go to LA, but rumored to not want to play with Lebron and Clippers have the cap space.
Klay Thompson - staying with Golden State most likely
Durant - Probably New York or Golden State
Kyrie - New York?
Jimmy Butler - candidate to go to Lakers
Kemba - Likely Charlotte
Porzingis - Dallas
Harris - 76ers can sign Harris or Butler, but not both. I would sign Harris if I was them.
Middleton - Bucks
Cousins - could go anywhere - will chase biggest paycheck
Horford - could go anywhere
Vucevic -May stay in Orlando
Russell - probably staying in Brooklyn
Randle - I think he wants to be on a winner.
Mirotic - will likely stay in Milwaukee
Derrick Rose - He could go to LA. This is the kind of player Magic Johnson would badly overpay for.

Who does LA go after? Jimmy Butler? The last thing the Lakers need is another locker room problem. Horford or Rose? Good players way past their prime. Cousins is going to be expensive. Randle? They could have had him for $8MM/year. He is going to cost them close to $20MM/year this summer and want 4 years.

There are multiple teams with a ton of cap space, including big market teams like the Hawks, Clippers, Knicks, Bulls, and Nets. Of the smaller market teams, Indiana is really good, and has a ton of cap space, and Sacramento is on the rise and can chase top players.

What makes it worse for the Lakers is that there are a lot of teams with a little bit of cap space that will push up the salaries of the second tier players. The Lakers also have a bunch of guys on rookie contracts that need to be moved soon to have any trade value.

The Lakers want Davis, but they don't have the goods or the Pelicans would have already made a trade.

 

[UofCT]

The Lakers want Davis, but they don't have the goods or the Pelicans would have already made a trade.

Pelicans should 100% wait to see who has the #1 pick. The Lakers collection of decent but not great young guys is not a smart play for the Pels.

 

[the Q]

They will get someone decent to go there because it is Lebron and LA, but look at the top Free Agents:

Kawhi - wants to go to LA, but rumored to not want to play with Lebron and Clippers have the cap space.
Klay Thompson - staying with Golden State most likely
Durant - Probably New York or Golden State
Kyrie - New York?
Jimmy Butler - candidate to go to Lakers
Kemba - Likely Charlotte
Porzingis - Dallas
Harris - 76ers can sign Harris or Butler, but not both. I would sign Harris if I was them.
Middleton - Bucks
Cousins - could go anywhere - will chase biggest paycheck
Horford - could go anywhere
Vucevic -May stay in Orlando
Russell - probably staying in Brooklyn
Randle - I think he wants to be on a winner.
Mirotic - will likely stay in Milwaukee
Derrick Rose - He could go to LA. This is the kind of player Magic Johnson would badly overpay for.

Who does LA go after? Jimmy Butler? The last thing the Lakers need is another locker room problem. Horford or Rose? Good players way past their prime. Cousins is going to be expensive. Randle? They could have had him for $8MM/year. He is going to cost them close to $20MM/year this summer and want 4 years.

There are multiple teams with a ton of cap space, including big market teams like the Hawks, Clippers, Knicks, Bulls, and Nets. Of the smaller market teams, Indiana is really good, and has a ton of cap space, and Sacramento is on the rise and can chase top players.

What makes it worse for the Lakers is that there are a lot of teams with a little bit of cap space that will push up the salaries of the second tier players. The Lakers also have a bunch of guys on rookie contracts that need to be moved soon to have any trade value.

The Lakers want Davis, but they don't have the goods or the Pelicans would have already made a trade.

This is a good post.

I think philly keeps both fwiw.

But I think the lakers best case now is cousins and trading for brad Beal.

I agree with you on their position in the Brow sweepstakes.

 

[tzznandrew]

The Lakers want Davis, but they don't have the goods or the Pelicans would have already made a trade.

And if and when he gets out there, LeBron would be turning 36. Maybe he's like Malone and will be very good at 36, but LeBron's injury signals that we're in late phase LeBron time, and his time as the best player on a very good team is pretty much over unless they get someone really good next year or make some good moves.

He has probably 3 more years left at near peak ability, barring injury...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is a good post.

I think philly keeps both fwiw.

But I think the lakers best case now is cousins and trading for brad Beal.

I agree with you on their position in the Brow sweepstakes.

I would let Butler go if I was the 76ers just because I think they would be better without him, but the math also supports letting Butler go. Riddick is 34. Simmons is going to come off a rookie deal soon. There isn't enough cap room for Butler, Harris, Riddick and Simmons. They can keep signing Riddick to short term deals, but those are really expensive and they run the risk that another team decides they would like a great catch and shoot player.

I think the Celtics would be better without Kyrie. I know he is having a great year statistically, but I just don't like him as a piece of a championship team. I like the lineup of Rozier, Tatum, Brown, Hayward and picking up Vucevic or Randle off free agency, or keeping Horford. That team would be better than the current Celtics.

I would love to see Kyrie and Cousins as the anchors of a new New York Knicks "dynasty", because whatever previous valleys of dysfunction the Knicks had achieved, a team with those two would find a new low, and those two would destroy the Knicks' salary cap to the point that they would long for the days of Allan Houston.

An eastern team that is in great shape going into the offseason is the Indiana Pacers. Oladipo has a long term deal, and they have a bunch of late 20's, early 30's role players coming off contracts that should be re-signable at reasonable contracts. They can try to upgrade the supporting cast a little, or chase a 2nd star. They got options.