Speaking as a Big Ten guy, FSU is effectively on the same tier as Nebraska academically (only FSU has never had AAU status) along with AAU schools such as Missouri, Kansas and Iowa State (who are in the AAU more for historical legacy purposes as opposed to based on their academic output today). As a result, FSU might be a bit of an academic stretch on paper, but not so much of a stretch when it has a similarly situated institution as a member in a state with about 1/10th of the population.
More importantly, Jim Delany has said one word with respect to expansion more than any other (more than "football", more than "academics", more than "television"): DEMOGRAPHICS. Look back at his quotes over the years and he has said that particular word over and over and over again. He doesn't just mean TV markets - what he's referring to is getting into areas where the most population growth is occurring. The Big Ten wants this not just for sports, but for recruiting "normal" college students in the future as the growth in the Midwest slows. Well, if you look at where a disproportionate amount of the population growth in the US is occurring, outside of the state of Texas, it's occurring in the Washington, DC region south through North Carolina, down to Atlanta and all through Florida. Hmmmm... look at list #1 in the OP's post.
The upshot is that Florida State, more than any single school that the Big Ten could realistically add (e.g. not counting Texas from the Big 12, Florida from the SEC, or USC/UCLA from the Pac-12), is a complete game changer on the demographics front. It's the move that adds the largest population base. It's the move that adds the most money for the Big Ten's national TV contracts. It's the move that adds the most money for the market-based model of the BTN. It's the move that adds the most for football on-the-field. It's the move that adds the state that's the single biggest home of Big Ten alums that's outside of the Midwest.
Anyone that is thinking that the Big Ten is just going to automatically pass up FSU on academic grounds is foolish (and if they're going to pass up FSU on academic grounds, then they're going to pass up UConn on academic grounds because that really does mean that AAU membership is the Big Ten's be-all end-all for anyone not named Notre Dame). Look at how Florida is growing and the way that the acceptance standards to both Florida and FSU are getting tougher and tougher in connection with that population growth. The academic reputation of Texas A&M was "meh" 20 years ago, but the in-state population explosion has turned its admissions standards completely around and it gained AAU status in the past decade. Once again, people should pay very close attention to list #1 in the OP's post. Assuming that Notre Dame continues to rebuff the Big Ten, the next 4 schools form a contiguous footprint (with 3 of those schools already being elite academic institutions) that makes the most sense in terms of demographics, TV money and actual football on-the-field in every way.
Now, that doesn't mean that the Big Ten will pull this off. Even as a Big Ten guy, I'm very skeptical of the ability for the conference to take UNC or even UVA (which then makes taking Georgia Tech and/or FSU more difficult geographically). However, do I believe that the OP's list #1 is exactly what the Big Ten would want to do assuming that the University of Texas is off the table? Absolutely.