OT: Machado to the Padres 10 Yr/$300M

[Towney007]

The Cherington-era Red Sox were absolutely awful at scouting and developing pitchers.

So were the Epstein-era Red Sox and the Dombrowski era Red Sox.

I mean when you think about it, Epstien's crew popped:

-Lester
-Papelbon
-Buchholz
-Bard
-Hansen
-Owens
-Anibal Sanchez
-Strickland
-Tazawa
-Wilson
-Rendon
-Pressly

Cherington draftees/guys included:
-Johnson
-Wright
-Barnes (I think. Epstein may have drafted him)
-Hembree
-Velazquez
-Albers
-Wendelken

Dombrowski's first pick has TJ and the rest isn't so hot looking.

But what's NUTS is you literally have to go all the way back to Lester to find a bonafide, front-end starter, one middle-rotation guy in Sanchez and then Buchholz/Kind of Wright/Johnson kind of to find starting caliber guys they've actually drafted. To have the kind of success they've had and NOT produce much starting pitching is something else.

That being said - if fungible relievers are your thing - there is a value to that and they pop a lot of them.

 

[Towney007]

I’m playing him at 3b but the positioning part is a great point.

It’s something not always in the players control. Statcast should give us so much more insight into that

Big time. And same holds true for a lot of guys - but dumb adjustments has also been Friedman's modus for a while now. I used to joke with my buddies that it was a matter of time before he ate all of Ryan Howard's contract in Tampa and turned him into a closer.

They literally changed Fernando Rodney's career by moving him over on the rubber a foot. Literally that was it and voila - $18 million per year closer. JP Howell was a NOBODY coming up in the minors and used to drop his shoulder about five inches on his slider. Stopped doing that and razor blades.

That's not even getting into guys like Jose Bautista, JD Martinez...

Baseball is wild, man.

 

[the Q]

Big time. And same holds true for a lot of guys - but dumb adjustments has also been Friedman's modus for a while now. I used to joke with my buddies that it was a matter of time before he ate all of Ryan Howard's contract in Tampa and turned him into a closer.

They literally changed Fernando Rodney's career by moving him over on the rubber a foot. Literally that was it and voila - $18 million per year closer. JP Howell was a NOBODY coming up in the minors and used to drop his shoulder about five inches on his slider. Stopped doing that and razor blades.

That's not even getting into guys like Jose Bautista, JD Martinez...

Baseball is wild, man.

Look at what changing to the proper swing plane ( if hear another coach saying swing down or squash the bug...) did for muncy and Taylor In la.

 

[Husky25]

So was Pom.

They were overpays via trade.

Future success being so difficult to predict in baseball is why trades and draft picks can't be fully evaluated until seasons later. Kyler Murray gave back $Millions to the A's and is entering the NFL draft for this exact reason.

Kimbrel was traded for four prospects. Three were ultra-young and traded based on their huge ceiling (Margot, Guerra, and Logan). The oldest (Asuaje) is about to enter his "prime years" and has tasted barely a sip of MLB coffee. All were blocked by not-much-older-yet-far-more developed talent (Betts, Bradley, Boegarts, Devers and the pitching staff) who, more importantly, were under Boston control for at least 4 more years.

Pomeranz was traded for Anderson Espinoza, while a huge prospect at the time, has turned out to not have thrown a competitive pitch in over two seasons.

In hindsight, while Margot looks promising and Guerra might turn into something useful, the Red Sox turned five prospects into three AL East winners and a World Series Championship, which is exactly what a deep farm system is for. They have to build it up again, but I would rather have a Duckboat parade in Boston than 23 year olds wasting away in Pawtucket.

 

[the Q]

Future success being so difficult to predict in baseball is why trades and draft picks can't be fully evaluated until seasons later. Kyler Murray gave back $Millions to the A's and is entering the NFL draft for this exact reason.

Kimbrel was traded for four prospects. Three were ultra-young and traded based on their huge ceiling (Margot, Guerra, and Logan). The oldest (Asuaje) is about to enter his "prime years" and has tasted barely a sip of MLB coffee. All were blocked by not-much-older-yet-far-more developed talent (Betts, Bradley, Boegarts, Devers and the pitching staff) who, more importantly, were under Boston control for at least 4 more years.

Pomeranz was traded for Anderson Espinoza, while a huge prospect at the time, has turned out to not have thrown a competitive pitch in over two seasons.

In hindsight, while Margot looks promising and Guerra might turn into something useful, the Red Sox turned five prospects into three AL East winners and a World Series Championship, which is exactly what a deep farm system is for. They have to build it up again, but I would rather have a Duckboat parade in Boston than 23 year olds wasting away in Pawtucket.

I’m not saying I would’ve kept them.

I would’ve reversed the Pom deal after the preller medical fiasco.

But I would’ve used them in Others areas, such as upgrading the dumpster fire at catcher or another starter.

While I can quibble about the price deal, flags fly forever.

 

[Towney007]

I’m not saying I would’ve kept them.

I would’ve reversed the Pom deal after the preller medical fiasco.

But I would’ve used them in Others areas, such as upgrading the dumpster fire at catcher or another starter.

While I can quibble about the price deal, flags fly forever.

Yeah there's not much shine you can put on the Pomeranz deal - especially since it really didn't work out for anyone. At least not yet it hasn't.

And one thing worth noting about Dombrowski - as much as he DOES run through his farm systems too quickly... he's really good at weeding out the guys who you trade away and the guys you keep - the Miguel Cabrera trade as I guess a more high profile example.

But that's the trick. Deal the ones you don't like as much/surplus for what you need. Keep the good ones.

 

[the Q]

Yeah there's not much shine you can put on the Pomeranz deal - especially since it really didn't work out for anyone. At least not yet it hasn't.

And one thing worth noting about Dombrowski - as much as he DOES run through his farm systems too quickly... he's really good at weeding out the guys who you trade away and the guys you keep - the Miguel Cabrera trade as I guess a more high profile example.

But that's the trick. Deal the ones you don't like as much/surplus for what you need. Keep the good ones.

No question. He’s rarely burned.

Best 2 guys he’s dealt were relievers IIRC.

Chad Green with the yanks and Knebel who is with MIL now.

The guy who will probably burn him the most is a guy who still hasn’t established himself in the bigs yet, but looks very promising, in wily Adames ss with the Rays.

 

[UConnSean]

Giambi (2002-2008) 7/$120M~21 fWAR 22 bWAR = $5.5M per WAR.
Teixeira (2009-2016 8/$180M ~18 fWAR 19 bWAR = $10 per WAR.

Both of which are very reasonable over the lifetime of the contract, and considering teams usually get a surplus in the early years, and then eat the later years of the deal.

Giambi's deal was arguably great IMO. His Yankee statistics: 653 G, .260/.404/.521 209 HR, 145 wRC+, 22.0 rWAR, 21.8 fWAR... pretty damn good

 

[storrsroars]

But either way - to me its nuts to say 'oh well he's bad defensively at SS so this deal isn't warranted' - because even if he's average, he's now that much more valuable - AND there's always the fallback of pushing him back to 3B where you basically have one of the top 3 defenders in the position there all of a sudden.

And I dunno - regardless of what anyone thought of him - He came in a little UNDER where he was pegged to go in the preseason. Bowden had him at $310 million. Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him at $256. MLBTR had him at 13/$390 million. Either way, the AAV always cooked out to a little over $30 million.

So to get a guy with his bat and tandem defensive versatility at a position where that's at a premium at 26 with 4-6 years of PRIME production left.. I'd say that's a pretty good bet.

Just for clarification, my responses regarding Machado's defense were in response to someone saying Machado & Harper were both top 5 players in MLB and a post stating that both were top defenders at their positions. I don't agree with either statement, but have been on board with Manny getting $30 AAV and have him in my 10 best. Harper not so much.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Giambi's deal was arguably great IMO. His Yankee statistics: 653 G, .260/.404/.521 209 HR, 145 wRC+, 22.0 rWAR, 21.8 fWAR... pretty damn good

And while injuries are part of the argument against signing guys long term, Giambi had the whole issue with the random pituitary tumor in 2004 where he played only 80 games and put up 0 fWAR. That's pretty unpredictable, as opposed to Jacoby Ellsbury injuring himself and missing a whole season with some random ailment.

 

[superjohn]

Giambi's deal was arguably great IMO. His Yankee statistics: 653 G, .260/.404/.521 209 HR, 145 wRC+, 22.0 rWAR, 21.8 fWAR... pretty damn good

They signed him to be a superstar, not a .254 hitter.

 

[superjohn]

And while injuries are part of the argument against signing guys long term, Giambi had the whole issue with the random pituitary tumor in 2004 where he played only 80 games and put up 0 fWAR. That's pretty unpredictable, as opposed to Jacoby Ellsbury injuring himself and missing a whole season with some random ailment.

Not so random with the pituitary tumor, that's from abusing roids.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Not so random with the pituitary tumor, that's from abusing roids.

Right, because a lot of other 90s-00s sluggers have missed time with pituitary issues?

 

[huskysupporter]

They signed him to be a superstar, not a .254 hitter.

You are judging worth on average? It ain’t the 1950s, there are advanced
stats nowadays.

 

[intlzncster]

Right, because a lot of other 90s-00s sluggers have missed time with pituitary issues?

The most common cause of a pituitary tumor is the usage of synthetic steroids. And seeing as we know he injected roids, @superjohn is probably right.

 

[superjohn]

Right, because a lot of other 90s-00s sluggers have missed time with pituitary issues?

Right and Manny was taking fertility drugs to help him with his pregnancy.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The most common cause of a pituitary tumor is the usage of synthetic steroids. And seeing as we know he injected roids, @superjohn is probably right.

Right and Manny was taking fertility drugs to help him with his pregnancy.

I'm not denying Giambi took steroids. He absolutely did. So did most the league I'd bet.

If you want to give me a list of all the other ballplayers from the steroid era that missed time with a pituitary issue, then I'll retract my statement. If not, I'm going to stick with the fact that it was a pretty unforeseen issue for an MLB player.

 

[boog204]

They signed him to be a superstar, not a .254 hitter.

a .925ops is pretty freaking good.

 

[intlzncster]

I'm not denying Giambi took steroids. He absolutely did. So did most the league I'd bet.

If you want to give me a list of all the other ballplayers from the steroid era that missed time with a pituitary issue, then I'll retract my statement. If not, I'm going to stick with the fact that it was a pretty unforeseen issue for an MLB player.

It's not that using steroids automatically or normally results in pituitary tumors. It's that when one develops a pituitary tumor, it's most likely because of steroids.

Definitely not "random", which is the point I was making.

It's like saying such and such player missed time because of 'random' lip cancer. Never mind that he chewed tobacco his whole life. And of course, not every guy who dips gets lip cancer.

 

[huskysupporter]

a .925ops is pretty freaking good.

Some people are judging players by batting average and rbis. It’s a nice contrast to some really good knowledge dropping by other posters here.

It’s like you can point out how good a hitters OPS is and note their WAR, and a response will be, “well he never had more than 100 RBI’s and hit above .300”

 

[superjohn]

I'm not denying Giambi took steroids. He absolutely did. So did most the league I'd bet.

If you want to give me a list of all the other ballplayers from the steroid era that missed time with a pituitary issue, then I'll retract my statement. If not, I'm going to stick with the fact that it was a pretty unforeseen issue for an MLB player.

I've always said I think half the league was on roids. Other players not getting pituitary tumors from steroids has nothing to do with Giambi getting a pituitary tumor from steroids, that's not how it works.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

It's not that using steroids automatically or normally results in pituitary tumors. It's that when one develops a pituitary tumor, it's most likely because of steroids.

Definitely not "random", which is the point I was making.

It's like saying such and such player missed time because of 'random' lip cancer. Never mind that he chewed tobacco his whole life. And of course, not every guy who dips gets lip cancer.

Ok does "rare" work better for you?

My point was that he didn't miss time due to hamstring pulls, or twisted ankles.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I've always said I think half the league was on roids. Other players not getting pituitary tumors from steroids has nothing to do with Giambi getting a pituitary tumor from steroids, that's not how it works.

Sure. The specific ailment wasn't common among MLB players. That's why I'm saying it's pretty unforeseen as opposed to normal wear and tear.

But again you guys have made your point that in a league without a salary cap you'd rather your team not spend big in order to pad the owners pockets.

 

[superjohn]

You are judging worth on average? It ain’t the 1950s, there are advanced
stats nowadays.

He is a professional hitter and had a great eye but .254, 30 homers, 85 rbi while being a bad fielder, and slow as hell never blew me away. I'm a Yankees fan and watched most of his games. He had a couple of great years but I suspect the Yankees thought they would get a little more from the MVP over the course of his contract.

 

[superjohn]

Sure. The specific ailment wasn't common among MLB players. That's why I'm saying it's pretty unforeseen as opposed to normal wear and tear.

But again you guys have made your point that in a league without a salary cap you'd rather your team not spend big in order to pad the owners pockets.

I'm saying it wasn't random, it was self-inflicted. He got the tumor because he was juicing. If he was walking down 161st street and got injured when he was hit by a car that jumped the sidewalk it would be random.

 

[Waquoit]

The Sale-Moncada trade is unique as both players ended up leading the league in strikeouts.

 

[UConnSean]

Per Heyman, Bryce to Phillies

 

[the Q]

Per Heyman, Bryce to Phillies

Very reluctantly. lol

Money finally won out.

Phillies screwed up with cutch at this point.

 

[storrsroars]

Phillies screwed up with cutch at this point.

I wouldn't be all that surprised if Cutch ends up having a better year.

I'm looking forward to Philly fans crushing Harper's will to live once he starts underperforming.

 

[Deepster]

I wouldn't be all that surprised if Cutch ends up having a better year.

I'm looking forward to Philly fans crushing Harper's will to live once he starts underperforming.

They certainly didn't learn their lesson with that horrible Ryan Howard deal.