Locks and bubble teams by conference

[triaddukefan]

Just watched the last minute - Belmont miracle.

Down by 6 with 25 seconds left.

• After no open 3s, they go for a layup and miss but the rebound is tieup and they retain possession! (Had they hit the layup, they probably lose.)
• They run an out of bounds play and get an open 3 pointer and she hits a bumb from well above top of key. Still down 3 with 14 seconds.
• UTM gets a player cutting to the basket on the inbounds, but she misses the layup badly (should never have shot it).
• Belmont comes down, runs around, and the player who was 1-9 on 3s at that point hits a bomb 3 to tie.

Luck + bad execution/coaching by UTM blows it.
Belmont very very fortunate.

I just watched the last part of that game The UT-Martin coaches and players wont be getting much sleep tonight

 

[Vowelguy]

Updated:

Locks/Clinched (34 total)
ACC (6): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State, Syracuse
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (3): DePaul, Marquette, Villanova
Auto (7): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer
tbd = 18


Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC (4): Virginia (35), Miami (49), Georgia Tech (62), Virginia Tech (74)
B12 (4): Oklahoma (30), Oklahoma St (51), West Virginia (65), TCU (78)
B10 (7): Mich (38), RU (42), Minn (46), Indi (54), Pur (55), MichSt (61), Nebr(63)
Pac (3): Cal (39), USC (45), Arizona St (57)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Creighton (50), St. John's (69)
Oth (2): Dayton (31), South Dakota (59)

MAC (3): Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (36)
Oth (4): Princeton, Ivy (32); NoColo, BgSky (37); WKy, CUSA (43); FGCU, ASun (52)

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Updated:

Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC (4): Virginia (35), Miami (49), Georgia Tech (62), Virginia Tech (74)
B12 (4): Oklahoma (30), Oklahoma St (51), West Virginia (65), TCU (78)
B10 (7): Mich (38), RU (42), Minn (46), Indi (54), Pur (55), MichSt (61), Nebr(63)
Pac (3): Cal (39), USC (45), Arizona St (57)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Creighton (50), St. John's (69)
Oth (2): Dayton (31), South Dakota (59)

MAC (3): Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (36)
Oth (4): Princeton, Ivy (32); NoColo, BgSky (37); WKy, CUSA (43); FGCU, ASun (52)

Couple of comments -

1 - No one with an RPI over 70 is on the bubble. As funky as RPI is, still no.
2 - The Big Sky is a dreadful conference. So is the A-Sun. If those teams don't win, they still are not going. Neither is South Dakota.
3 - I think Dayton is doubtful, but you never know. Before the oBE split, the A10 was consistently a 2 or 3 team league. Once the oBE split, the A10 hasn't been so successful.
4 - the SEC is fascinating. I noticed that when I was doing my winner / loser spreadsheet. In fact, 6 of the 14 teams ended the season under .500. Yikes.
5 - I will be shocked if Creighton or St. John's gets in.

 

[triaddukefan]

I keep reading that UVA is a bubble team..... yet Charlie Creme has them as a 7 seed.

 

[Plebe]

I keep reading that UVA is a bubble team..... yet Charlie Creme has them as a 7 seed.

Actually, he has them as the #32 overall seed (i.e., what would be the lowest #8 seed) but he procedural-bumped them to a #7.

 

[Plebe]

Couple of comments -

1 - No one with an RPI over 70 is on the bubble. As funky as RPI is, still no.

I think a couple years ago the Syracuse men got in with an RPI in the 70s.

 

[triaddukefan]

Actually, he has them as the #32 overall seed (i.e., what would be the lowest #8 seed) but he procedural-bumped them to a #7.

I guess based on the numbers they deserve to be in.... but man.... they are a hard team to watch.... and this is coming from a Duke fan

Just looked at their RPI rated strength of schedule... its #3

 

[DefenseBB]

I guess based on the numbers they deserve to be in.... but man.... they are a hard team to watch.... and this is coming from a Duke fan

Just looked at their RPI rated strength of schedule... its #3

Ok, in times of need, friends and colleagues must come to the aid of their friends and that's exactly what I am doing here-NO, just no! Virginia might have played the RPI #3 schedule (I despise RPI as a flawed metric) but look at the actual games-they didn't win any. Let's review for everyone's edification with AP ranking at time of game:
#7 MisssSt-loss 68-53
Georgia-loss 64-61, not ranked when played
Dayton-loss 61-46, not ranked when play @Plebe is apoplectic about Dayton
#15 Maryland-loss 60-59
Rutgers-loss 52-43, not ranked at time when played
#16 Duke-loss 55-48
#4 Louisville-loss 77-41
#12 FSU-loss 77-62
#5 ND-loss 83-69
Miami-loss 77-62 not ranked when played
#4 Louisville-loss 51-39
#5 ND-loss 83-47
They did beat NC State, unranked at the time 73-63 back on Jan 4.

Sure they played a tough schedule and LOST everyone one. They also lost 6 of their last 9. Not only did they lose to ranked teams, for the most part they lost badly.

It's ok @triaddukefan I got your back when you're feeling blue....

 

[Vowelguy]

Main things UVa has going for it are just 1 bad loss (Duquesne), good wins @NC St and vs Syracuse, and a nonconference SOS of #14.

Still 2-12 against the RPI top 50 is nothing to write home about.

 

[bballnut90]

Ok, in times of need, friends and colleagues must come to the aid of their friends and that's exactly what I am doing here-NO, just no! Virginia might have played the RPI #3 schedule (I despise RPI as a flawed metric) but look at the actual games-they didn't win any. Let's review for everyone's edification with AP ranking at time of game:
#7 MisssSt-loss 68-53
Georgia-loss 64-61, not ranked when played
Dayton-loss 61-46, not ranked when play @Plebe is apoplectic about Dayton
#15 Maryland-loss 60-59
Rutgers-loss 52-43, not ranked at time when played
#16 Duke-loss 55-48
#4 Louisville-loss 77-41
#12 FSU-loss 77-62
#5 ND-loss 83-69
Miami-loss 77-62 not ranked when played
#4 Louisville-loss 51-39
#5 ND-loss 83-47
They did beat NC State, unranked at the time 73-63 back on Jan 4.

Sure they played a tough schedule and LOST everyone one. They also lost 6 of their last 9. Not only did they lose to ranked teams, for the most part they lost badly.

It's ok @triaddukefan I got your back when you're feeling blue....

I agree. Similar situation with Oklahoma...scheduling tough is great, but you have to actually win some of these to be a tournament team IMO. Out of teams that are in Charlie's bracket, OU is 2-11 with the only wins coming over a projected 12 seed (Belmont) and a 5 seed (USF).

 

[MSGRET]

I agree. Similar situation with Oklahoma...scheduling tough is great, but you have to actually win some of these to be a tournament team IMO. Out of teams that are in Charlie's bracket, OU is 2-11 with the only wins coming over a projected 12 seed (Belmont) and a 5 seed (USF).

And would have most likely lost to USF if they would of been able to play Alyssa Rader at the time that they played. With her finally being able to play due to transfer rules they have become a much tougher team to beat.

 

[willtalk]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------- Melgoza scored 30 for the Huskies. If there is a better player stuck on a worse team anywhere in the country, I'd be curious to hear about it. She's been awesome this year. Finished #2 in the conference in total scoring, but led everybody in scoring in conference games. This after averaging about 2 points and less than 10 minutes per game as a Fr. Who saw this coming from her?

It's hard to score if you never get to see the ball. With Plum, McDonald etc on your team that is a distinct possibility.

As to Virginia being a #7 seed. and not being on the bubble. I think they get a running automatic bid since Gail Goestenkors declared Joanne Boyle to be on of the best coaches in the country.

 

[nwhoopfan]

It's hard to score if you never get to see the ball. With Plum, McDonald etc on your team that is a distinct possibility.

Everybody had the green light to shoot 3's last year. Outside of Plum and Osahor you never knew what you were going to get from the rest of the team. McDonald, Romeo and Corral were very streaky (especially Romeo--most hot and cold player I've EVER seen). There were plenty of shot opportunities available for other players. Melgoza didn't get a lot of minutes but really didn't distinguish herself when she was on the court. She was taking notes though. Her playing style this year is very similar to Plum.

 

[Vowelguy]

Updated, partially

Locks/Clinched (25 + 9 Auto + 16 TBD)
ACC (5): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (2): DePaul, Marquette
Auto (9): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer, Boise St, Maine
tbd = 16


Bubble teams (RPI in parentheses) - 27 for 14 spots (* = Creme pick)
ACC (5): Virginia* (31), Syracuse* (36), Miami* (50), GaTech (68), VaTech (67)
B12 (4): Oklahoma* (34), Oklahoma St (57), West Virginia (63), TCU (69)
B10 (7): Mich*(38), RU*(39), Minn*(40), Indi (54), Pur (62), MichSt (65), Nebr*(60)
Pac (3): Cal* (43), USC (49), Arizona St* (55)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Villanova* (29), Creighton* (48)
Oth (2): Dayton* (33), South Dakota (58)

MAC (2): Buffalo* (21), Central Michigan^ (19)
Oth (1): Princeton^ (30)

 

[Vowelguy]

Conference finals tmow:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
Colonial = Drexel .... (1) vs Elon (3)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
Big Sky .= No Colorado (1) vs Idaho (2)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (1) vs Hampton (3)
SWAC ... = Southern .. (1) vs Grambling (3)
MAC .... = Buffalo .. (E1) vs C Michigan (W1)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs W Kentucky (2)​

#1 New Mex St lost and has clinched a WNIT bid.

 

[Plebe]

I agree. Similar situation with Oklahoma...scheduling tough is great, but you have to actually win some of these to be a tournament team IMO. Out of teams that are in Charlie's bracket, OU is 2-11 with the only wins coming over a projected 12 seed (Belmont) and a 5 seed (USF).

Then I'd like to know how Dayton, whose only good win is over Virginia, is in the field.

 

[Plebe]

Conference finals tmow:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
Colonial = Drexel .... (1) vs Elon (3)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
Big Sky .= No Colorado (1) vs Idaho (2)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (2) vs Hampton (3)
SWAC ... = Southern .. (1) vs Grambling (3)
MAC .... = Buffalo .. (E1) vs C Michigan (W1)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs WKy (2)/No Texas​

#1s Bethune Cookman and New Mex St lost and have clinched a WNIT bid.

Boise State take the automatic bid in the Mountain West with a buzzer-beater over Nevada.

UC Davis narrowly survives a second consecutive loss to UC Riverside, with a 49-46 win in the Big West semifinals.

Buffalo vs. Central Michigan is the expected matchup in the MAC. Ball State, the #3 team in the MAC, probably eliminated itself from at-large contention with a loss to Western Michigan in the quarterfinals.

 

[triaddukefan]

Conference finals tmow:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
Colonial = Drexel .... (1) vs Elon (3)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
Big Sky .= No Colorado (1) vs Idaho (2)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (2) vs Hampton (3)
SWAC ... = Southern .. (1) vs Grambling (3)
MAC .... = Buffalo .. (E1) vs C Michigan (W1)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs WKy (2)/No Texas​

#1s Bethune Cookman and New Mex St lost and have clinched a WNIT bid.

Bethune Cookman tied for 1st place in the conference with A&T..... but A&T won the only regular season matchup between the two. So if Hampton upsets the Aggies ...... I would assume that A&T goes into the WNIT over BC

 

[triaddukefan]

I guess this is the defacto small to mid-major tournament thread...... some interesting matchups (at least for me) later. Can Elon @HuskyNan go back to back as Colonial Champs? They smashed James Madison in the semis... suprised at the margin. Kinda early game start for that one... 1pm.... considering the semi-finals were Friday late afternoon.... early evening. A little backstory in the MEAC. Hampton stunned the HBCU world in November by announcing they were leaving the MEAC at the end of the sports year to join the Big South. Needless to say..... the MEAC was less than enthused.... and there is some serious bad blood between Hampton and the rest of the MEAC. So tomorrow the entire MEAC (and me) will be rooting for A&T to put an end to Hampton's time in the conference with a loss. Interestingly enough... Hampton men's team is also in the finals vs NC Central. The men's final is at 1... the women start at 4.... back to back... in the same arena.

 

[IWearShoes]

I agree. Similar situation with Oklahoma...scheduling tough is great, but you have to actually win some of these to be a tournament team IMO. Out of teams that are in Charlie's bracket, OU is 2-11 with the only wins coming over a projected 12 seed (Belmont) and a 5 seed (USF).

Okie is one of the most spectacularly inconsistent teams I can ever remember. A 19 point home loss to Florida??? That alone should preclude you from the Dance.

 

[triaddukefan]

Great win for High Point University in the Big South Quarterfinals.... 3 at the buzzer to win 62-60.

Sets up a pair of NC vs VA matchups in the semis... HPU vs Liberty... and Radford vs UNC-Asheville

 

[HuskyNan]

I guess this is the defacto small to mid-major tournament thread. some interesting matchups (at least for me) later. Can Elon @HuskyNan go back to back as Colonial Champs? They smashed James Madison in the semis... suprised at the margin. Kinda early game start for that one... 1pm.... considering the semi-finals were Friday late afternoon.... early evening. A little backstory in the MEAC. Hampton stunned the HBCU world in November by announcing they were leaving the MEAC at the end of the sports year to join the Big South. Needless to say..... the MEAC was less than enthused.... and there is some serious bad blood between Hampton and the rest of the MEAC. So tomorrow the entire MEAC (and me) will be rooting for A&T to put an end to Hampton's time in the conference with a loss. Interestingly enough... Hampton men's team is also in the finals vs NC Central. The men's final is at 1... the women start at 4.... back to back... in the same arena.

Yes, Elon could win the CAA. Elon plays Drexel for the championship today; on Feb. 9, Elon beat them 70-58. However, Elon lost to them, 58-56 in Philly Jan. 26 and guess where the tourney is - in Philly. I have my spy keeping an eye on these things for me.

 

[Vowelguy]

Bethune Cookman tied for 1st place in the conference with A&T..... but A&T won the only regular season matchup between the two. So if Hampton upsets the Aggies . I would assume that A&T goes into the WNIT over BC

Ok . How dud Bethune end up as 1 seed then?

 

[Plebe]

Ok . How dud Bethune end up as 1 seed then?

They were the 2 seed, according to the MEAC site:

MEAC Women's Bracket Set for 2018 MEAC Basketball Tournament

 

[Vowelguy]

Locks/Clinched (25 + 17 Auto + 8 TBD)
ACC (5): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (2): DePaul, Marquette
Auto (17): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer, Boise St, Maine, CMichigan, Elon, Grambling, No Colorado, W Kentucky, CSU Northridge, Seattle, NC A&T
tbd = 8


Bubble teams (RPI in parentheses) - 26 for 14 spots (* = Creme pick)
ACC (5): Virginia* (31), Syracuse* (36), Miami* (50), GaTech (68), VaTech (67)
B12 (4): Oklahoma* (34), Oklahoma St (57), West Virginia (63), TCU (69)
B10 (7): Mich*(38), RU*(39), Minn*(40), Indi (54), Pur (62), MichSt (65), Nebr*(60)
Pac (3): Cal* (43), USC (49), Arizona St* (55)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Villanova* (29), Creighton* (48)
Oth (3): Dayton* (33), South Dakota (58), Buffalo* (21)
Oth (1): Princeton^ (30)