Locks and bubble teams by conference | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Locks and bubble teams by conference

bballnut90 said:
I agree. Similar situation with Oklahoma...scheduling tough is great, but you have to actually win some of these to be a tournament team IMO. Out of teams that are in Charlie's bracket, OU is 2-11 with the only wins coming over a projected 12 seed (Belmont) and a 5 seed (USF).
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And would have most likely lost to USF if they would of been able to play Alyssa Rader at the time that they played. With her finally being able to play due to transfer rules they have become a much tougher team to beat.
 
nwhoopfan said:
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--------------- Melgoza scored 30 for the Huskies. If there is a better player stuck on a worse team anywhere in the country, I'd be curious to hear about it. She's been awesome this year. Finished #2 in the conference in total scoring, but led everybody in scoring in conference games. This after averaging about 2 points and less than 10 minutes per game as a Fr. Who saw this coming from her?
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It's hard to score if you never get to see the ball. With Plum, McDonald etc on your team that is a distinct possibility.

As to Virginia being a #7 seed. and not being on the bubble. I think they get a running automatic bid since Gail Goestenkors declared Joanne Boyle to be on of the best coaches in the country.
 
willtalk said:
It's hard to score if you never get to see the ball. With Plum, McDonald etc on your team that is a distinct possibility.
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Everybody had the green light to shoot 3's last year. Outside of Plum and Osahor you never knew what you were going to get from the rest of the team. McDonald, Romeo and Corral were very streaky (especially Romeo--most hot and cold player I've EVER seen). There were plenty of shot opportunities available for other players. Melgoza didn't get a lot of minutes but really didn't distinguish herself when she was on the court. She was taking notes though. Her playing style this year is very similar to Plum.
 
Updated, partially

Locks/Clinched (25 + 9 Auto + 16 TBD)
ACC (5): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (2): DePaul, Marquette
Auto (9): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer, Boise St, Maine
tbd = 16


Bubble teams (RPI in parentheses) - 27 for 14 spots (* = Creme pick)
ACC (5): Virginia* (31), Syracuse* (36), Miami* (50), GaTech (68), VaTech (67)
B12 (4): Oklahoma* (34), Oklahoma St (57), West Virginia (63), TCU (69)
B10 (7): Mich*(38), RU*(39), Minn*(40), Indi (54), Pur (62), MichSt (65), Nebr*(60)
Pac (3): Cal* (43), USC (49), Arizona St* (55)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Villanova* (29), Creighton* (48)
Oth (2): Dayton* (33), South Dakota (58)

MAC (2): Buffalo* (21), Central Michigan^ (19)
Oth (1): Princeton^ (30)
 
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Conference finals tmow:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
Colonial = Drexel .... (1) vs Elon (3)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
Big Sky .= No Colorado (1) vs Idaho (2)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (1) vs Hampton (3)
SWAC ... = Southern .. (1) vs Grambling (3)
MAC .... = Buffalo .. (E1) vs C Michigan (W1)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs W Kentucky (2)​

#1 New Mex St lost and has clinched a WNIT bid.
 
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bballnut90 said:
I agree. Similar situation with Oklahoma...scheduling tough is great, but you have to actually win some of these to be a tournament team IMO. Out of teams that are in Charlie's bracket, OU is 2-11 with the only wins coming over a projected 12 seed (Belmont) and a 5 seed (USF).
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Then I'd like to know how Dayton, whose only good win is over Virginia, is in the field.
 
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vowelguy said:
Conference finals tmow:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
Colonial = Drexel .... (1) vs Elon (3)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
Big Sky .= No Colorado (1) vs Idaho (2)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (2) vs Hampton (3)
SWAC ... = Southern .. (1) vs Grambling (3)
MAC .... = Buffalo .. (E1) vs C Michigan (W1)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs WKy (2)/No Texas​

#1s Bethune Cookman and New Mex St lost and have clinched a WNIT bid.
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Boise State take the automatic bid in the Mountain West with a buzzer-beater over Nevada.

UC Davis narrowly survives a second consecutive loss to UC Riverside, with a 49-46 win in the Big West semifinals.

Buffalo vs. Central Michigan is the expected matchup in the MAC. Ball State, the #3 team in the MAC, probably eliminated itself from at-large contention with a loss to Western Michigan in the quarterfinals.
 
vowelguy said:
Conference finals tmow:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
Colonial = Drexel .... (1) vs Elon (3)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
Big Sky .= No Colorado (1) vs Idaho (2)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (2) vs Hampton (3)
SWAC ... = Southern .. (1) vs Grambling (3)
MAC .... = Buffalo .. (E1) vs C Michigan (W1)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs WKy (2)/No Texas​

#1s Bethune Cookman and New Mex St lost and have clinched a WNIT bid.
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Bethune Cookman tied for 1st place in the conference with A&T..... but A&T won the only regular season matchup between the two. So if Hampton upsets the Aggies ...... I would assume that A&T goes into the WNIT over BC
 
I guess this is the defacto small to mid-major tournament thread...... some interesting matchups (at least for me) later. Can Elon @HuskyNan go back to back as Colonial Champs? They smashed James Madison in the semis... suprised at the margin. Kinda early game start for that one... 1pm.... considering the semi-finals were Friday late afternoon.... early evening. A little backstory in the MEAC. Hampton stunned the HBCU world in November by announcing they were leaving the MEAC at the end of the sports year to join the Big South. Needless to say..... the MEAC was less than enthused.... and there is some serious bad blood between Hampton and the rest of the MEAC. So tomorrow the entire MEAC (and me) will be rooting for A&T to put an end to Hampton's time in the conference with a loss. Interestingly enough... Hampton men's team is also in the finals vs NC Central. The men's final is at 1... the women start at 4.... back to back... in the same arena.
 
bballnut90 said:
I agree. Similar situation with Oklahoma...scheduling tough is great, but you have to actually win some of these to be a tournament team IMO. Out of teams that are in Charlie's bracket, OU is 2-11 with the only wins coming over a projected 12 seed (Belmont) and a 5 seed (USF).
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Okie is one of the most spectacularly inconsistent teams I can ever remember. A 19 point home loss to Florida??? That alone should preclude you from the Dance.
 
Great win for High Point University in the Big South Quarterfinals.... 3 at the buzzer to win 62-60. :eek::eek:

Sets up a pair of NC vs VA matchups in the semis... HPU vs Liberty... and Radford vs UNC-Asheville

 
triaddukefan said:
I guess this is the defacto small to mid-major tournament thread. some interesting matchups (at least for me) later. Can Elon @HuskyNan go back to back as Colonial Champs? They smashed James Madison in the semis... suprised at the margin. Kinda early game start for that one... 1pm.... considering the semi-finals were Friday late afternoon.... early evening. A little backstory in the MEAC. Hampton stunned the HBCU world in November by announcing they were leaving the MEAC at the end of the sports year to join the Big South. Needless to say..... the MEAC was less than enthused.... and there is some serious bad blood between Hampton and the rest of the MEAC. So tomorrow the entire MEAC (and me) will be rooting for A&T to put an end to Hampton's time in the conference with a loss. Interestingly enough... Hampton men's team is also in the finals vs NC Central. The men's final is at 1... the women start at 4.... back to back... in the same arena.
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Yes, Elon could win the CAA. Elon plays Drexel for the championship today; on Feb. 9, Elon beat them 70-58. However, Elon lost to them, 58-56 in Philly Jan. 26 and guess where the tourney is - in Philly. I have my spy keeping an eye on these things for me.
 
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triaddukefan said:
Bethune Cookman tied for 1st place in the conference with A&T..... but A&T won the only regular season matchup between the two. So if Hampton upsets the Aggies . I would assume that A&T goes into the WNIT over BC
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Ok . How dud Bethune end up as 1 seed then?
 
Locks/Clinched (25 + 17 Auto + 8 TBD)
ACC (5): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (2): DePaul, Marquette
Auto (17): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer, Boise St, Maine, CMichigan, Elon, Grambling, No Colorado, W Kentucky, CSU Northridge, Seattle, NC A&T
tbd = 8


Bubble teams (RPI in parentheses) - 26 for 14 spots (* = Creme pick)
ACC (5): Virginia* (31), Syracuse* (36), Miami* (50), GaTech (68), VaTech (67)
B12 (4): Oklahoma* (34), Oklahoma St (57), West Virginia (63), TCU (69)
B10 (7): Mich*(38), RU*(39), Minn*(40), Indi (54), Pur (62), MichSt (65), Nebr*(60)
Pac (3): Cal* (43), USC (49), Arizona St* (55)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Villanova* (29), Creighton* (48)
Oth (3): Dayton* (33), South Dakota (58), Buffalo* (21)
Oth (1): Princeton^ (30)
 
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nwhoopfan said:
Everybody had the green light to shoot 3's last year. Outside of Plum and Osahor you never knew what you were going to get from the rest of the team. McDonald, Romeo and Corral were very streaky (especially Romeo--most hot and cold player I've EVER seen). There were plenty of shot opportunities available for other players. Melgoza didn't get a lot of minutes but really didn't distinguish herself when she was on the court. She was taking notes though. Her playing style this year is very similar to Plum.
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Melgoza appears to be an on ball scorer. It isn't just about having the green light to shoot. Plum pretty much dominated the ball when she was on the court, which isn't necessarily bad for most other teammates. Unless you yourself need the ball in your hands to shine. Some players do not need the ball while other players do.
 
Plebe said:
Then I'd like to know how Dayton, whose only good win is over Virginia, is in the field.
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I think they should be on the bubble too, but I'd pick Dayton over Oklahoma. Their record is 23-6, and their only losses are to tournament teams, St. Louis, and Toledo. I could nitpick whose losses are worse and go into detail of that, but at the end of the day I'm more inclined to reward a team that has been winning most of the season rather than a team who is barely over .500 with one quality win. If Oklahoma had won even one more game and was 17-13, I'd be inclined to give them a spot, but I don't think they've shown anything to deserve a spot in the tournament this year. I think they'll get in due to their high RPI whether I agree with it or not.
 
bballnut90 said:
I think they should be on the bubble too, but I'd pick Dayton over Oklahoma. Their record is 23-6, and their only losses are to tournament teams, St. Louis, and Toledo. I could nitpick whose losses are worse and go into detail of that, but at the end of the day I'm more inclined to reward a team that has been winning most of the season rather than a team who is barely over .500 with one quality win. If Oklahoma had won even one more game and was 17-13, I'd be inclined to give them a spot, but I don't think they've shown anything to deserve a spot in the tournament this year. I think they'll get in due to their high RPI whether I agree with it or not.
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A bit of sleight of hand to lump Dayton's loss to GW in with their losses to other "tournament" teams, because GW would have been nowhere even near the bubble if Dayton had simply beaten them in the conference tournament.

If Dayton had played Oklahoma's schedule, who's to say their record would have been any better? Their resume doesn't suggest it. Again, their best win was over Virginia; Oklahoma's win over South Florida was significnatly better than that. And after that, Dayton's next-best win is over Harvard. Oklahoma's wins over West Virginia and TCU are more impressive than that.
 
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12 Auto bids remain:

Today:
Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (1) vs Hampton (3)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs W Kentucky (2)​

Tmow:
Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs SFA/C Arkansas
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Missouri St/N Iowa
Atla Sun = FGCU ...... (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton/Yale vs Harvard/Penn
Sun Belt = UALR/Troy vs Louisiana/Texas St​
 
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Plebe said:
A bit of sleight of hand to lump Dayton's loss to GW in with their losses to other "tournament" teams, because GW would have been nowhere even near the bubble if Dayton had simply beaten them in the conference tournament.

If Dayton had played Oklahoma's schedule, who's to say their record would have been any better? Their resume doesn't suggest it. Again, their best win was over Virginia; Oklahoma's win over South Florida was significnatly better than that. And after that, Dayton's next-best win is over Harvard. Oklahoma's wins over West Virginia and TCU are more impressive than that.
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That is a valid point about GW. On the flip side, would Oklahoma have a 23-6 record playing Dayton’s schedule? I would say no considering how inconsistent they’ve been all year. I think they’re a better team than Dayton when they play well, but Dayton’s had the better season and deserves the bid.
 
A&T blows a 10 point lead with four minutes left in the fourth quarter.. But regroups and wins in overtime over Hampton.... And the MEAC rejoices :D

Aggie Pride :cool:
 
Which team do you pick?
Record is 20-11 from a P5 conference. Average RPI win is 168. Average RPI Loss is 19. Worst RPI loss is to an RPI 44

Record is 23-6 from a Mid Major. Average RPI win is 174. Average RPI loss is 59. Worst RPI losses include 78, 83 and 121.
Note: the losses to 78 and 121 were in 2 of their last 3 games.
 
9 Auto bids remain:

Today:
Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (1) vs Hampton (3)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs W Kentucky (2)​

Tmow:
Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)
Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)/Harvard(3)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)/Louisiana(6)​


NC A&T wins MEAC and possibly a trip to Storrs? They are 0-4 against the RPI 100.
And Seattle, which has been D1 for <10 years, earns a bid, and possibly a date with Oregon.
 
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Good for Seattle U. I'm thinking that's their first Tourney bid ever? Can't remember them making it previously. Men's program was a powerhouse a LONG time ago before moving down to D2. What a difference a year makes. One team from Seattle going Dancing and they don't wear purple and gold.
 
bballnut90 said:
That is a valid point about GW. On the flip side, would Oklahoma have a 23-6 record playing Dayton’s schedule? I would say no considering how inconsistent they’ve been all year. I think they’re a better team than Dayton when they play well, but Dayton’s had the better season and deserves the bid.
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I don't agree that Dayton has had the better season just because they have a better record. Dayton's strength of schedule is barely in the top 100. Oklahoma's is #2. The impact of this disparity cannot be overstated.

I don't think that Dayton would have gone 11-7 in the Big 12. Oklahoma was actually quite consistent in the Big 12 season (unlike Oklahoma State, who lost to Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas). So I actually do think OK could have gone through the A-10 with only one loss, especially considering that no one else in the A-10 is even as good as TCU.

Both Massey and Sagarin rate Oklahoma much higher than Dayton.
  • Massey has Oklahoma #38 and Dayton #57.
  • Sagarin has Oklahoma #28 and Dayton #58.
 
Couple more auto bids. Cal State-Northridge from the Big West (I think that means UC-Davis gets an auto bid to the WNIT as a regular season champion) and Northern Colorado from the Big Sky.
 
nwhoopfan said:
Couple more auto bids. Cal State-Northridge from the Big West (I think that means UC-Davis gets an auto bid to the WNIT as a regular season champion) and Northern Colorado from the Big Sky.
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Second year in a row that UC Davis has dominated the Big West regular season and then had their hearts broken in the conference tournament.
 
8 Auto bids remain:

Today:
Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (1) vs Hampton (3)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs W Kentucky (2)​

Tmow:
Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)
Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​


CSU Northridge is another team destined for a 16 seed

And I'll revise my earlier comment: Seattle finished in 4th place in the conference with the 2nd lowest RPI. I think they are the #64 team. They are a strong candidate for Storrs.
 
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vowelguy said:
CSU Northridge is another team destined for a 16 seed

And I'll revise my earlier comment: Seattle finished in 4th place in the conference with the 2nd lowest RPI. I think they are the #64 team. They are a strong candidate for Storrs.
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This post made me think of seeding for the women's volleyball tourney, which causes much grumbling and gnashing of teeth every year. They place an emphasis on minimizing travel costs and not so much on the relative strength of the teams. They only seed the top 16 overall and after that it's a crap shoot. One team (like Penn St. almost every year) could have 3 of the worst teams in the tourney in their pod for 1st and 2nd round games, while a Hawaii team that is ranked in the top 10 most years has to face off against a top Pac 12 in the 2nd round. It's ridiculous. Women's hoops fans should rejoice that they don't have to deal w/ that kind of nonsense.
 
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