Locks and bubble teams by conference

[Plebe]

Thursday and Friday will be make-or-break days for a lot of bubble teams in the power 5 conferences. "Locks" are teams that should be safe on selection day regardless of what happens in their conference tournament. Then I take a look at teams whose tournament aspirations could hinge on what happens in the next 2 or 3 days.

Locks (28 total)
ACC (6): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State, Syracuse
Big 12 (2): Baylor, Texas
Big Ten (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac-12 (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): Mississippi St, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
Big East (3): DePaul, Marquette, Villanova
Horizon (1): Green Bay

Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC (4): Virginia (35), Miami (49), Georgia Tech (62), Virginia Tech (74)
Big 12 (4): Oklahoma (30), Oklahoma St (51), West Virginia (65), TCU (78)
Big Ten (7): Michigan (38), Rutgers (42), Minnesota (46), Indiana (54), Purdue (55), Michigan St (61), Nebraska (63)
Pac-12 (3): Cal (39), USC (45), Arizona St (57)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
Big East (2): Creighton (50), St. John's (69)
MAC (3): Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (36)
Summit (2): South Dakota St (34), South Dakota (59)
Others: Dayton, A-10 (31); Princeton, Ivy (32); Northern Colorado, Big Sky (37); Gonzaga, WCC (40); Quinnipiac, MAAC (41); Western Kentucky, C-USA (43); FGCU, A-Sun (52)


Notes:

• If the teams listed as "locks" account for the conference tournament champions of those 8 conferences, that would leave 12 at-large bids for the bubble teams.
• I believe that the safest among the bubble teams are Michigan, Miami, Cal, and Arizona St.
• At the other end, teams like Virginia Tech, TCU, St. John's, and UCF would probably have to reach the final of their conference tournament to have any hope of an at-large bid.
• The teams listed in "Others" would have only a faint hope of an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament.

 

[triaddukefan]

Surprised that you listed Miami as a bubble team. I think they are a lock... but Ive been wrong before. Looked at their schedule... and they have one bad loss (Wake), and a horrible loss @ Colorado. Perhaps it was the elevation

 

[HuskyFan1125]

I too think Miami is in the tourney. 10-6 in the nations #1 RPI league. They get that rematch with Wake Forest today in the ACCT.

 

[Vowelguy]

3 big east teams as locks?
Also don't know about Green Bay. Wins over Marquette and Arizona st but also 2 terrible losses.they need to win their tourney imho.

 

[huskeynut]

I'd like to see UCF make a run and get in. I would think that means making it to the AAC Championship game.

Get three AC teams in would be a big plus and a huge boost to UCF's program.

 

[CocoHusky]

Would love to see USC get in and have Sadie play her last college game at Home at UCONN.

 

[DefenseBB]

I'd like to see UCF make a run and get in. I would think that means making it to the AAC Championship game.

Get three AC teams in would be a big plus and a huge boost to UCF's program.

I laud your conference enthusiasm but unless they win the AAC they are not getting an invite. Look at their schedule-not good. They are ranked 64th by Massey and have a 75 SoS. Better luck next year.

 

[Plebe]

3 big east teams as locks?
Also don't know about Green Bay. Wins over Marquette and Arizona st but also 2 terrible losses.they need to win their tourney imho.

Do you think Villanova isn’t a lock? Or Marquette or DePaul?

I think Green Bay is currently between 23 and 28 in the committee’s ranking. I doubt they’ll drop below 42 even with a loss. They have other top 50 wins in addition to Arizona State and Marquette.

 

[DefenseBB]

Plebe has done his usual, very well thought out analysis on his view, along with very pertinent facts/rankings on the potential field. I have my own quibbles on who is a lock or not a lock but as a whole, the complete list is here. The P5, Big East, AAC and maybe the Mid-American conferences are the only ones warranting 2 bids. Depending how the P5 tournaments play out or if Belmont and/or Green Bay don't win, they have the edge on Villanova (on the bubble with their 40ish rank). They are in the conversation.
His point on the tournament games in the p5 is salient especially for Rutgers, Virginia and as I type Syracuse is losing to VT. I still think Syracuse is in.

 

[Vowelguy]

Any outside shot Utah had disappeared today with a loss to Colorado.

 

[Vowelguy]

Bama WNIT bound after losing to KY

 

[JordyG]

Surprised that you listed Miami as a bubble team. I think they are a lock... but Ive been wrong before. Looked at their schedule... and they have one bad loss (Wake), and a horrible loss @ Colorado. Perhaps it was the elevation

When I visited Miami I got elevated and stayed that way the entire cocktailed visit.

 

[EricSD]

Purdue looks to be NIT bound as well as they lost to Rutgers by 2. Rutgers lives to fight another day! Syracuse with a brutal loss to VA Tech - tech was 6-10 in the ACC so I can't see how they make the NCAA's unless they win their conference tourney, and the loss should hurt Syracuse's seeding in the NCAA's...

 

[nwhoopfan]

Any outside shot Utah had disappeared today with a loss to Colorado.

Weird series between those 2. Utah finished 3 games ahead of Colorado. They split the regular season series, each winning on the road. Colorado gets the rubber match. The Utes were clearly a better team it seems to me but apparently had a hard team beating the Buffs.


Sorta related, apparently Washington took Anigwe out of the game, built a double digit 3rd quarter lead against Cal, but couldn't hang on. 71-68 Bears. Asha Thomas led them w/ 22. Melgoza scored 30 for the Huskies. If there is a better player stuck on a worse team anywhere in the country, I'd be curious to hear about it. She's been awesome this year. Finished #2 in the conference in total scoring, but led everybody in scoring in conference games. This after averaging about 2 points and less than 10 minutes per game as a Fr. Who saw this coming from her?

 

[Plebe]

Purdue looks to be NIT bound as well as they lost to Rutgers by 2. Rutgers lives to fight another day! Syracuse with a brutal loss to VA Tech - tech was 6-10 in the ACC so I can't see how they make the NCAA's unless they win their conference tourney, and the loss should hurt Syracuse's seeding in the NCAA's...

Rutgers would have been sweating bullets if they'd lost today. But with this win they are pretty close to a lock. They saw their lead disappear in the 4th quarter and then just hung on for the win on Tyler Scaife's game-winning shot with 0:04 left.

Purdue? Wouldn't want to be them right now. They do have quality wins over Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers, and Central Michigan. But they have *so many* losses to teams outside the top 50, going 4-6 against teams in the 51-100 range.

Syracuse will still make the tournament but they could fall into the dreaded 8-9 slot again. Would the committee send them to Storrs for the 2nd year in a row?

 

[Plebe]

Virginia gets a critical win over Georgia Tech but I think they're still a bubble team. Only 2 top-50 wins, over NC State and Syracuse.

Indiana and Michigan State are headed to overtime. Both of these teams are fighting for their bubble lives.

 

[Plebe]

Quadruple overtime win for Indiana over Michigan State, 111-109. Brutal.

Both teams still are in the running for an at-large but on thin ice. Indiana's chances are slightly better, having won 9 of their last 10.

Michigan State's position is very tenuous: RPI in low 60s but they do have wins over South Florida, Maryland, and Michigan, and they have no losses outside the top 100.

 

[nwhoopfan]

USC avoids a bad loss, nudges Washington St. 47-44. Meets Stanford tomorrow.

 

[Plebe]

USC avoids a bad loss, nudges Washington St. 47-44. Meets Stanford tomorrow.

I’d say this is likely enough to put USC in the tournament. A loss could have been disastrous.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Arizona St. is cruising, up 20 vs. Arizona nearing the end of the third quarter. Only game of the day that wasn't fairly close.

 

[Plebe]

I believe that four teams can be moved to "lock" status after winning today:

• Michigan, after crushing Penn State
• Miami, after beating Wake Forest
• Cal, after squeaking by Washington
  
• Arizona State, assuming they hang on to their comfortable lead over Arizona

That leaves only 8 available at-large bids, IMO. Slim pickings for a whole slew of bubble teams. The Big Ten alone has six of them.

 

[nwhoopfan]

ASU 76-47 final.

 

[Plebe]

Minnesota gets a one-point win over Iowa today, putting them very close to lock status for an at-large bid.

Megan Gustafson of Iowa set a Big Ten tournament record with 48 points, in the losing effort.

 

[Shades]

Minnesota gets a one-point win over Iowa today, putting them very close to lock status for an at-large bid.

That'd be very crazy if they didn't make it. So far they've won 3 out of 5 games against your Big Ten locks.

 

[Plebe]

That'd be very crazy if they didn't make it. So far they've won 3 out of 5 games against your Big Ten locks.

Minnesota is now 23-7. Through the first 20 games of the season, they were 15-5 after playing an *abysmal* nonconference schedule and taking losses to North Carolina and (ahem) San Diego. And their only top-100 wins at that point were over Michigan State and UNLV. There was not even a hint that they'd be anywhere near the bubble.

Since then, however, they've gone 8-2 against their backloaded Big Ten schedule, including wins over Iowa (twice now), Maryland, Michigan, and Purdue.

Minnesota is probably the most improved team in the country since the early part of the season.

 

[mhshuskies]

I'd like to see UCF make a run and get in. I would think that means making it to the AAC Championship game.

Get three AC teams in would be a big plus and a huge boost to UCF's program.

UCF deserves to get in, but may not. They are at least as good as ANY Big 10 team.

 

[Plebe]

UCF deserves to get in, but may not. They are at least as good as ANY Big 10 team.

Based on what evidence?

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Based on what evidence?

I was wondering that myself. They may be at the level of a strongish mid-major, which means they "could" win some games in a P5 conference, and yes, the B1G has some dreadful teams that they probably could beat.

But their sole "plus" is they went through the American, except for the 2 really good teams that happen to reside there. Don't see a really good win on their schedule and they lost to Samford and Mercer.

Oh, and the American was 2 - 7 against the B1G. UConn got the 2 wins; even USF lost (to Michigan State). 2 American teams lost to Illinois that didn't win a B1G game. 2 teams lost to Rutgers.

Just no.

 

[Plebe]

I was wondering that myself. They may be at the level of a strongish mid-major, which means they "could" win some games in a P5 conference, and yes, the B1G has some dreadful teams that they probably could beat.

But their sole "plus" is they went through the American, except for the 2 really good teams that happen to reside there. Don't see a really good win on their schedule and they lost to Samford and Mercer.

Oh, and the American was 2 - 7 against the B1G. UConn got the 2 wins; even USF lost (to Michigan State). 2 American teams lost to Illinois that didn't win a B1G game. 2 teams lost to Rutgers.

Just no.

I think you're forgetting USF's win over Ohio State. But still, that doesn't mean that UCF would have won the conference.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I think you're forgetting USF's win over Ohio State. But still, that doesn't mean that UCF would have won the conference.

Good catch. Missed it because it was during the conference season. I also actually knew about it, but I was just counting names on my win / loss chart.