Locks and bubble teams by conference | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Locks and bubble teams by conference

nwhoopfan said:
71-68 Bears. Asha Thomas led them w/ 22. Melgoza scored 30 for the Huskies. If there is a better player stuck on a worse team anywhere in the country, I'd be curious to hear about it. She's been awesome this year. Finished #2 in the conference in total scoring, but led everybody in scoring in conference games. This after averaging about 2 points and less than 10 minutes per game as a Fr. Who saw this coming from her?
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Tanaya Atkinson of Temple was the player I couldn't think of when I first read your statement. It's really a shame that her stellar senior year was wasted on such an awful team, especially after their relative success of last year. Melgoza, at least, can look forward to better collegiate days for her team.
 
Updating my list to reflect Thursday's and Friday's results:

Locks (34 total) (latest additions in bold):
ACC (7): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, Miami
Big 12 (2): Baylor, Texas
Big Ten (7): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Rutgers, Nebraska
Pac-12 (5): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St, Arizona State
SEC (7): Mississippi St, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
Big East (3): DePaul, Marquette, Villanova
Horizon (1): Green Bay​

That would leave at most 6 at-large bids for the following bubble teams
(could be fewer if a "non-lock" team wins a conference tournament):

Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC: Virginia (35), Virginia Tech (67), Georgia Tech (68)
Big 12: Oklahoma (29), Oklahoma St (48), West Virginia (66), TCU (75)
Big Ten: Indiana (55), Purdue (61), Michigan St (65)
Pac-12: Cal (45), USC (51)
SEC: none
AAC: UCF (44)
Big East: Creighton (47), St. John's (71)
MAC: Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (34)
Summit: South Dakota St (33), South Dakota (58)
Others: Dayton (30), Princeton (32), Gonzaga (36), Northern Colorado (38), Quinnipiac (42), FGCU (56)
​
I believe the leading contenders for the final 6 bubble spots are Oklahoma State, Virginia, Indiana, and Cal.

I also think that Buffalo and Central Michigan are very much in the mix, but their situations are very different and I have no idea what the committee will make of whichever of them doesn't win the MAC tournament.

South Dakota State—with wins over NC State and Oklahoma and no bad losses—also has a relatively strong at-large resume.
​
 
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Plebe said:
Updating my list to reflect Thursday's and Friday's results:

Locks (34 total) (latest additions in bold):
ACC (7): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, Miami
Big 12 (2): Baylor, Texas
Big Ten (7): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Rutgers, Nebraska
Pac-12 (5): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St, Arizona State
SEC (7): Mississippi St, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
Big East (3): DePaul, Marquette, Villanova
Horizon (1): Green Bay​

That would leave at most 6 at-large bids for the following bubble teams
(could be fewer if a "non-lock" team wins a conference tournament):

Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC: Virginia (35), Virginia Tech (67), Georgia Tech (68)
Big 12: Oklahoma (29), Oklahoma St (48), West Virginia (66), TCU (75)
Big Ten: Indiana (55), Purdue (61), Michigan St (65)
Pac-12: Cal (45), USC (51)
SEC: none
AAC: UCF (44)
Big East: Creighton (47), St. John's (71)
MAC: Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (34)
Summit: South Dakota St (33), South Dakota (58)
Others: Dayton (30), Princeton (32), Gonzaga (36), Northern Colorado (38), Quinnipiac (42), FGCU (56)
​
I believe the leading contenders for the final 6 bubble spots are Oklahoma State, Virginia, Indiana, and Cal.

I also think that Buffalo and Central Michigan are very much in the mix, but their situations are very different and I have no idea what the committee will make of whichever of them doesn't win the MAC tournament.

South Dakota State—with wins over NC State and Oklahoma and no bad losses—also has a relatively strong at-large resume.
​
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I just looked at Daytons results. No way they get an at large.

A10 will be a 1bid league
 
How can Minnesota be a lock when they have an SOS of 116, oh that's right they are in the Powerful Big 10. UCF had 4 losses in Conference and they were to 2 teams, UConn and USF both are ranked teams, they also have an SOS of 52.
 
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MSGRET said:
How can Minnesota be a lock when they have an SOS of 116, oh that's right they are in the Powerful Big 10. UCF had 4 losses in Conference and they were to 2 teams, UConn and USF both are ranked teams, they also have an SOS of 52.
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But UCF hasn't beaten anyone in the top 50. Minnesota has. That's the difference.
 
vowelguy said:
I just looked at Daytons results. No way they get an at large.

A10 will be a 1 bid league
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Amazingly Creme has them in.

Meanwhile Belmont in trouble - down 4 with <:30 to go.
 
vowelguy said:
Amazingly Creme has them in.

Meanwhile Belmont in trouble - down 4 with <:30 to go.
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I don't see how Dayton would be in ahead of Oklahoma. They both have only one quality win, but Oklahoma's is over a better team.

Somehow Belmont managed to tie the game and they're in overtime now.

Green Bay survived another scare from Northern Kentucky, which seemed to have some secret kryptonite that gave Green Bay all kinds of trouble.
 
Which one should earn their way to a NCAA Tournament?

br1.jpg
 
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Shades said:
Which one should earn their way to a NCAA Tournament?

View attachment 29092
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These data are so limited. What were their significant losses (to teams outside the top 100 or top 150)? Who in the top 25 did they beat? Did they beat Central Michigan or a team in the committee's top 10?
 
Plebe said:
These data are so limited. What were their significant losses (to teams outside the top 100 or top 150)? Who in the top 25 did they beat? Did they beat Central Michigan or a team in the committee's top 10?
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I want to see good wins and bad losses. Most everything else is irrelevant to me.
 
Plebe said:
But UCF hasn't beaten anyone in the top 50. Minnesota has. That's the difference.
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Some of the conference homerism is amusing at times. Im as big of an ACC homer as you will find... but you wont find me going to bat for VPI or GaTech :rolleyes:
 
ochoopsfan said:
How can you have more wins vs a Top 25 than vs Top 50. The third team listed is 5-6 vs Top 25 but 4-6 vs Top 50? are those #'s reversed?
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I'm guessing it's RPI top 50 but AP top 25 ?
 
Plebe said:
Somehow Belmont managed to tie the game and they're in overtime now.
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Just watched the last minute - Belmont miracle.

Down by 6 with 25 seconds left.
  • After no open 3s, they go for a layup and miss but the rebound is tieup and they retain possession! (Had they hit the layup, they probably lose.)
  • They run an out of bounds play and get an open 3 pointer and she hits a bumb from well above top of key. Still down 3 with 14 seconds.
  • UTM gets a player cutting to the basket on the inbounds, but she misses the layup badly (should never have shot it).
  • Belmont comes down, runs around, and the player who was 1-9 on 3s at that point hits a bomb 3 to tie.

Luck + bad execution/coaching by UTM blows it.
Belmont very very fortunate.
 
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vowelguy said:
Just watched the last minute - Belmont miracle.

Down by 6 with 25 seconds left.
  • After no open 3s, they go for a layup and miss but the rebound is tieup and they retain possession! (Had they hit the layup, they probably lose.)
  • They run an out of bounds play and get an open 3 pointer and she hits a bumb from well above top of key. Still down 3 with 14 seconds.
  • UTM gets a player cutting to the basket on the inbounds, but she misses the layup badly (should never have shot it).
  • Belmont comes down, runs around, and the player who was 1-9 on 3s at that point hits a bomb 3 to tie.

Luck + bad execution/coaching by UTM blows it.
Belmont very very fortunate.
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Wow, I'll have to cue that one up. Quite the houdini act.

Belmont had zero chance at an at-large bid so this was basically a play-in game.
 
Plebe said:
Wow, I'll have to cue that one up. Quite the houdini act.

Belmont had zero chance at an at-large bid so this was basically a play-in game.
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thats what makes this small conference tournament finals the best. Mercer is gonna be in the same boat .. starting tomorrow at 12pm EST
 
vowelguy said:
Just watched the last minute - Belmont miracle.

Down by 6 with 25 seconds left.
  • After no open 3s, they go for a layup and miss but the rebound is tieup and they retain possession! (Had they hit the layup, they probably lose.)
  • They run an out of bounds play and get an open 3 pointer and she hits a bumb from well above top of key. Still down 3 with 14 seconds.
  • UTM gets a player cutting to the basket on the inbounds, but she misses the layup badly (should never have shot it).
  • Belmont comes down, runs around, and the player who was 1-9 on 3s at that point hits a bomb 3 to tie.

Luck + bad execution/coaching by UTM blows it.
Belmont very very fortunate.
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I just watched the last part of that game :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: The UT-Martin coaches and players wont be getting much sleep tonight
 
Updated:

Locks/Clinched (34 total)
ACC (6): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State, Syracuse
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (3): DePaul, Marquette, Villanova
Auto (7): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer
tbd = 18


Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC (4): Virginia (35), Miami (49), Georgia Tech (62), Virginia Tech (74)
B12 (4): Oklahoma (30), Oklahoma St (51), West Virginia (65), TCU (78)
B10 (7): Mich (38), RU (42), Minn (46), Indi (54), Pur (55), MichSt (61), Nebr(63)
Pac (3): Cal (39), USC (45), Arizona St (57)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Creighton (50), St. John's (69)
Oth (2): Dayton (31), South Dakota (59)

MAC (3): Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (36)
Oth (4): Princeton, Ivy (32); NoColo, BgSky (37); WKy, CUSA (43); FGCU, ASun (52)
 
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vowelguy said:
Updated:

Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC (4): Virginia (35), Miami (49), Georgia Tech (62), Virginia Tech (74)
B12 (4): Oklahoma (30), Oklahoma St (51), West Virginia (65), TCU (78)
B10 (7): Mich (38), RU (42), Minn (46), Indi (54), Pur (55), MichSt (61), Nebr(63)
Pac (3): Cal (39), USC (45), Arizona St (57)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Creighton (50), St. John's (69)
Oth (2): Dayton (31), South Dakota (59)

MAC (3): Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (36)
Oth (4): Princeton, Ivy (32); NoColo, BgSky (37); WKy, CUSA (43); FGCU, ASun (52)
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Couple of comments -

1 - No one with an RPI over 70 is on the bubble. As funky as RPI is, still no.
2 - The Big Sky is a dreadful conference. So is the A-Sun. If those teams don't win, they still are not going. Neither is South Dakota.
3 - I think Dayton is doubtful, but you never know. Before the oBE split, the A10 was consistently a 2 or 3 team league. Once the oBE split, the A10 hasn't been so successful.
4 - the SEC is fascinating. I noticed that when I was doing my winner / loser spreadsheet. In fact, 6 of the 14 teams ended the season under .500. Yikes.
5 - I will be shocked if Creighton or St. John's gets in.
 
I keep reading that UVA is a bubble team..... yet Charlie Creme has them as a 7 seed.
 
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triaddukefan said:
I keep reading that UVA is a bubble team..... yet Charlie Creme has them as a 7 seed.
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Actually, he has them as the #32 overall seed (i.e., what would be the lowest #8 seed) but he procedural-bumped them to a #7.
 
KnightBridgeAZ said:
Couple of comments -

1 - No one with an RPI over 70 is on the bubble. As funky as RPI is, still no.
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I think a couple years ago the Syracuse men got in with an RPI in the 70s.
 
Plebe said:
Actually, he has them as the #32 overall seed (i.e., what would be the lowest #8 seed) but he procedural-bumped them to a #7.
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I guess based on the numbers they deserve to be in.... but man.... they are a hard team to watch.... and this is coming from a Duke fan

Just looked at their RPI rated strength of schedule... its #3
 
triaddukefan said:
I guess based on the numbers they deserve to be in.... but man.... they are a hard team to watch.... and this is coming from a Duke fan

Just looked at their RPI rated strength of schedule... its #3
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Ok, in times of need, friends and colleagues must come to the aid of their friends and that's exactly what I am doing here-NO, just no! Virginia might have played the RPI #3 schedule (I despise RPI as a flawed metric) but look at the actual games-they didn't win any. Let's review for everyone's edification with AP ranking at time of game:
#7 MisssSt-loss 68-53
Georgia-loss 64-61, not ranked when played
Dayton-loss 61-46, not ranked when play @Plebe is apoplectic about Dayton
#15 Maryland-loss 60-59
Rutgers-loss 52-43, not ranked at time when played
#16 Duke-loss 55-48
#4 Louisville-loss 77-41
#12 FSU-loss 77-62
#5 ND-loss 83-69
Miami-loss 77-62 not ranked when played
#4 Louisville-loss 51-39
#5 ND-loss 83-47
They did beat NC State, unranked at the time 73-63 back on Jan 4.

Sure they played a tough schedule and LOST everyone one. They also lost 6 of their last 9. Not only did they lose to ranked teams, for the most part they lost badly.

It's ok @triaddukefan I got your back when you're feeling blue....
 
Main things UVa has going for it are just 1 bad loss (Duquesne), good wins @NC St and vs Syracuse, and a nonconference SOS of #14.

Still 2-12 against the RPI top 50 is nothing to write home about.
 
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DefenseBB said:
Ok, in times of need, friends and colleagues must come to the aid of their friends and that's exactly what I am doing here-NO, just no! Virginia might have played the RPI #3 schedule (I despise RPI as a flawed metric) but look at the actual games-they didn't win any. Let's review for everyone's edification with AP ranking at time of game:
#7 MisssSt-loss 68-53
Georgia-loss 64-61, not ranked when played
Dayton-loss 61-46, not ranked when play @Plebe is apoplectic about Dayton
#15 Maryland-loss 60-59
Rutgers-loss 52-43, not ranked at time when played
#16 Duke-loss 55-48
#4 Louisville-loss 77-41
#12 FSU-loss 77-62
#5 ND-loss 83-69
Miami-loss 77-62 not ranked when played
#4 Louisville-loss 51-39
#5 ND-loss 83-47
They did beat NC State, unranked at the time 73-63 back on Jan 4.

Sure they played a tough schedule and LOST everyone one. They also lost 6 of their last 9. Not only did they lose to ranked teams, for the most part they lost badly.

It's ok @triaddukefan I got your back when you're feeling blue....
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I agree. Similar situation with Oklahoma...scheduling tough is great, but you have to actually win some of these to be a tournament team IMO. Out of teams that are in Charlie's bracket, OU is 2-11 with the only wins coming over a projected 12 seed (Belmont) and a 5 seed (USF).
 
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