Locks and bubble teams by conference

[mhshuskies]

I'd like to see UCF make a run and get in. I would think that means making it to the AAC Championship game.

Get three AC teams in would be a big plus and a huge boost to UCF's program.

UCF deserves to get in, but may not. They are at least as good as ANY Big 10 team.

 

[Plebe]

UCF deserves to get in, but may not. They are at least as good as ANY Big 10 team.

Based on what evidence?

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Based on what evidence?

I was wondering that myself. They may be at the level of a strongish mid-major, which means they "could" win some games in a P5 conference, and yes, the B1G has some dreadful teams that they probably could beat.

But their sole "plus" is they went through the American, except for the 2 really good teams that happen to reside there. Don't see a really good win on their schedule and they lost to Samford and Mercer.

Oh, and the American was 2 - 7 against the B1G. UConn got the 2 wins; even USF lost (to Michigan State). 2 American teams lost to Illinois that didn't win a B1G game. 2 teams lost to Rutgers.

Just no.

 

[Plebe]

I was wondering that myself. They may be at the level of a strongish mid-major, which means they "could" win some games in a P5 conference, and yes, the B1G has some dreadful teams that they probably could beat.

But their sole "plus" is they went through the American, except for the 2 really good teams that happen to reside there. Don't see a really good win on their schedule and they lost to Samford and Mercer.

Oh, and the American was 2 - 7 against the B1G. UConn got the 2 wins; even USF lost (to Michigan State). 2 American teams lost to Illinois that didn't win a B1G game. 2 teams lost to Rutgers.

Just no.

I think you're forgetting USF's win over Ohio State. But still, that doesn't mean that UCF would have won the conference.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I think you're forgetting USF's win over Ohio State. But still, that doesn't mean that UCF would have won the conference.

Good catch. Missed it because it was during the conference season. I also actually knew about it, but I was just counting names on my win / loss chart.

 

[Plebe]

71-68 Bears. Asha Thomas led them w/ 22. Melgoza scored 30 for the Huskies. If there is a better player stuck on a worse team anywhere in the country, I'd be curious to hear about it. She's been awesome this year. Finished #2 in the conference in total scoring, but led everybody in scoring in conference games. This after averaging about 2 points and less than 10 minutes per game as a Fr. Who saw this coming from her?

Tanaya Atkinson of Temple was the player I couldn't think of when I first read your statement. It's really a shame that her stellar senior year was wasted on such an awful team, especially after their relative success of last year. Melgoza, at least, can look forward to better collegiate days for her team.

 

[Plebe]

Updating my list to reflect Thursday's and Friday's results:

Locks (34 total) (latest additions in bold):
ACC (7): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, Miami
Big 12 (2): Baylor, Texas
Big Ten (7): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Rutgers, Nebraska
Pac-12 (5): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St, Arizona State
SEC (7): Mississippi St, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
Big East (3): DePaul, Marquette, Villanova
Horizon (1): Green Bay​

That would leave at most 6 at-large bids for the following bubble teams
(could be fewer if a "non-lock" team wins a conference tournament):

Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC: Virginia (35), Virginia Tech (67), Georgia Tech (68)
Big 12: Oklahoma (29), Oklahoma St (48), West Virginia (66), TCU (75)
Big Ten: Indiana (55), Purdue (61), Michigan St (65)
Pac-12: Cal (45), USC (51)
SEC: none
AAC: UCF (44)
Big East: Creighton (47), St. John's (71)
MAC: Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (34)
Summit: South Dakota St (33), South Dakota (58)
Others: Dayton (30), Princeton (32), Gonzaga (36), Northern Colorado (38), Quinnipiac (42), FGCU (56)
​

I believe the leading contenders for the final 6 bubble spots are Oklahoma State, Virginia, Indiana, and Cal.

I also think that Buffalo and Central Michigan are very much in the mix, but their situations are very different and I have no idea what the committee will make of whichever of them doesn't win the MAC tournament.

South Dakota State—with wins over NC State and Oklahoma and no bad losses—also has a relatively strong at-large resume.

​

 

[ochoopsfan]

Charlies latest Bracketology
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

 

[Vowelguy]

Updating my list to reflect Thursday's and Friday's results:

Locks (34 total) (latest additions in bold):
ACC (7): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, Miami
Big 12 (2): Baylor, Texas
Big Ten (7): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Rutgers, Nebraska
Pac-12 (5): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St, Arizona State
SEC (7): Mississippi St, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
Big East (3): DePaul, Marquette, Villanova
Horizon (1): Green Bay​

That would leave at most 6 at-large bids for the following bubble teams
(could be fewer if a "non-lock" team wins a conference tournament):

Bubble teams (RPI ranking in parentheses)
ACC: Virginia (35), Virginia Tech (67), Georgia Tech (68)
Big 12: Oklahoma (29), Oklahoma St (48), West Virginia (66), TCU (75)
Big Ten: Indiana (55), Purdue (61), Michigan St (65)
Pac-12: Cal (45), USC (51)
SEC: none
AAC: UCF (44)
Big East: Creighton (47), St. John's (71)
MAC: Buffalo (16), Central Michigan (23), Ball St (34)
Summit: South Dakota St (33), South Dakota (58)
Others: Dayton (30), Princeton (32), Gonzaga (36), Northern Colorado (38), Quinnipiac (42), FGCU (56)
​

I believe the leading contenders for the final 6 bubble spots are Oklahoma State, Virginia, Indiana, and Cal.

I also think that Buffalo and Central Michigan are very much in the mix, but their situations are very different and I have no idea what the committee will make of whichever of them doesn't win the MAC tournament.

South Dakota State—with wins over NC State and Oklahoma and no bad losses—also has a relatively strong at-large resume.

​

I just looked at Daytons results. No way they get an at large.

A10 will be a 1bid league

 

[MSGRET]

How can Minnesota be a lock when they have an SOS of 116, oh that's right they are in the Powerful Big 10. UCF had 4 losses in Conference and they were to 2 teams, UConn and USF both are ranked teams, they also have an SOS of 52.

 

[Vowelguy]

Charlies latest Bracketology
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

I agree with his bracketing of the top 12.

 

[Plebe]

How can Minnesota be a lock when they have an SOS of 116, oh that's right they are in the Powerful Big 10. UCF had 4 losses in Conference and they were to 2 teams, UConn and USF both are ranked teams, they also have an SOS of 52.

But UCF hasn't beaten anyone in the top 50. Minnesota has. That's the difference.

 

[Vowelguy]

Oklahoma’s lost in b12 quarters puts them in beeeg trouble

 

[Vowelguy]

I just looked at Daytons results. No way they get an at large.

A10 will be a 1 bid league

Amazingly Creme has them in.

Meanwhile Belmont in trouble - down 4 with <:30 to go.

 

[Plebe]

Amazingly Creme has them in.

Meanwhile Belmont in trouble - down 4 with <:30 to go.

I don't see how Dayton would be in ahead of Oklahoma. They both have only one quality win, but Oklahoma's is over a better team.

Somehow Belmont managed to tie the game and they're in overtime now.

Green Bay survived another scare from Northern Kentucky, which seemed to have some secret kryptonite that gave Green Bay all kinds of trouble.

 

[Shades]

Which one should earn their way to a NCAA Tournament?

 

[Bear11]

Conference wins doesn’t mean much without saying which conference.....

 

[Plebe]

Which one should earn their way to a NCAA Tournament?

View attachment 29092

These data are so limited. What were their significant losses (to teams outside the top 100 or top 150)? Who in the top 25 did they beat? Did they beat Central Michigan or a team in the committee's top 10?

 

[Vowelguy]

These data are so limited. What were their significant losses (to teams outside the top 100 or top 150)? Who in the top 25 did they beat? Did they beat Central Michigan or a team in the committee's top 10?

I want to see good wins and bad losses. Most everything else is irrelevant to me.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Which one should earn their way to a NCAA Tournament?

View attachment 29092

How can you have more wins vs a Top 25 than vs Top 50. The third team listed is 5-6 vs Top 25 but 4-6 vs Top 50? are those #'s reversed?

 

[triaddukefan]

But UCF hasn't beaten anyone in the top 50. Minnesota has. That's the difference.

Some of the conference homerism is amusing at times. Im as big of an ACC homer as you will find... but you wont find me going to bat for VPI or GaTech

 

[Vowelguy]

How can you have more wins vs a Top 25 than vs Top 50. The third team listed is 5-6 vs Top 25 but 4-6 vs Top 50? are those #'s reversed?

I'm guessing it's RPI top 50 but AP top 25 ?

 

[Vowelguy]

Somehow Belmont managed to tie the game and they're in overtime now.

Just watched the last minute - Belmont miracle.

Down by 6 with 25 seconds left.

• After no open 3s, they go for a layup and miss but the rebound is tieup and they retain possession! (Had they hit the layup, they probably lose.)
• They run an out of bounds play and get an open 3 pointer and she hits a bumb from well above top of key. Still down 3 with 14 seconds.
• UTM gets a player cutting to the basket on the inbounds, but she misses the layup badly (should never have shot it).
• Belmont comes down, runs around, and the player who was 1-9 on 3s at that point hits a bomb 3 to tie.

Luck + bad execution/coaching by UTM blows it.
Belmont very very fortunate.

 

[Plebe]

Just watched the last minute - Belmont miracle.

Down by 6 with 25 seconds left.

• After no open 3s, they go for a layup and miss but the rebound is tieup and they retain possession! (Had they hit the layup, they probably lose.)
• They run an out of bounds play and get an open 3 pointer and she hits a bumb from well above top of key. Still down 3 with 14 seconds.
• UTM gets a player cutting to the basket on the inbounds, but she misses the layup badly (should never have shot it).
• Belmont comes down, runs around, and the player who was 1-9 on 3s at that point hits a bomb 3 to tie.

Luck + bad execution/coaching by UTM blows it.
Belmont very very fortunate.

Wow, I'll have to cue that one up. Quite the houdini act.

Belmont had zero chance at an at-large bid so this was basically a play-in game.

 

[triaddukefan]

Wow, I'll have to cue that one up. Quite the houdini act.

Belmont had zero chance at an at-large bid so this was basically a play-in game.

thats what makes this small conference tournament finals the best. Mercer is gonna be in the same boat .. starting tomorrow at 12pm EST