Locks and bubble teams by conference

[willtalk]

Everybody had the green light to shoot 3's last year. Outside of Plum and Osahor you never knew what you were going to get from the rest of the team. McDonald, Romeo and Corral were very streaky (especially Romeo--most hot and cold player I've EVER seen). There were plenty of shot opportunities available for other players. Melgoza didn't get a lot of minutes but really didn't distinguish herself when she was on the court. She was taking notes though. Her playing style this year is very similar to Plum.

Melgoza appears to be an on ball scorer. It isn't just about having the green light to shoot. Plum pretty much dominated the ball when she was on the court, which isn't necessarily bad for most other teammates. Unless you yourself need the ball in your hands to shine. Some players do not need the ball while other players do.

 

[bballnut90]

Then I'd like to know how Dayton, whose only good win is over Virginia, is in the field.

I think they should be on the bubble too, but I'd pick Dayton over Oklahoma. Their record is 23-6, and their only losses are to tournament teams, St. Louis, and Toledo. I could nitpick whose losses are worse and go into detail of that, but at the end of the day I'm more inclined to reward a team that has been winning most of the season rather than a team who is barely over .500 with one quality win. If Oklahoma had won even one more game and was 17-13, I'd be inclined to give them a spot, but I don't think they've shown anything to deserve a spot in the tournament this year. I think they'll get in due to their high RPI whether I agree with it or not.

 

[Plebe]

I think they should be on the bubble too, but I'd pick Dayton over Oklahoma. Their record is 23-6, and their only losses are to tournament teams, St. Louis, and Toledo. I could nitpick whose losses are worse and go into detail of that, but at the end of the day I'm more inclined to reward a team that has been winning most of the season rather than a team who is barely over .500 with one quality win. If Oklahoma had won even one more game and was 17-13, I'd be inclined to give them a spot, but I don't think they've shown anything to deserve a spot in the tournament this year. I think they'll get in due to their high RPI whether I agree with it or not.

A bit of sleight of hand to lump Dayton's loss to GW in with their losses to other "tournament" teams, because GW would have been nowhere even near the bubble if Dayton had simply beaten them in the conference tournament.

If Dayton had played Oklahoma's schedule, who's to say their record would have been any better? Their resume doesn't suggest it. Again, their best win was over Virginia; Oklahoma's win over South Florida was significnatly better than that. And after that, Dayton's next-best win is over Harvard. Oklahoma's wins over West Virginia and TCU are more impressive than that.

 

[Vowelguy]

12 Auto bids remain:

Today:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (1) vs Hampton (3)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs W Kentucky (2)​

Tmow:

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs SFA/C Arkansas
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Missouri St/N Iowa
Atla Sun = FGCU ...... (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton/Yale vs Harvard/Penn
Sun Belt = UALR/Troy vs Louisiana/Texas St​

 

[bballnut90]

A bit of sleight of hand to lump Dayton's loss to GW in with their losses to other "tournament" teams, because GW would have been nowhere even near the bubble if Dayton had simply beaten them in the conference tournament.

If Dayton had played Oklahoma's schedule, who's to say their record would have been any better? Their resume doesn't suggest it. Again, their best win was over Virginia; Oklahoma's win over South Florida was significnatly better than that. And after that, Dayton's next-best win is over Harvard. Oklahoma's wins over West Virginia and TCU are more impressive than that.

That is a valid point about GW. On the flip side, would Oklahoma have a 23-6 record playing Dayton’s schedule? I would say no considering how inconsistent they’ve been all year. I think they’re a better team than Dayton when they play well, but Dayton’s had the better season and deserves the bid.

 

[triaddukefan]

A&T blows a 10 point lead with four minutes left in the fourth quarter.. But regroups and wins in overtime over Hampton.... And the MEAC rejoices

Aggie Pride

 

[ochoopsfan]

Which team do you pick?
Record is 20-11 from a P5 conference. Average RPI win is 168. Average RPI Loss is 19. Worst RPI loss is to an RPI 44

Record is 23-6 from a Mid Major. Average RPI win is 174. Average RPI loss is 59. Worst RPI losses include 78, 83 and 121.
Note: the losses to 78 and 121 were in 2 of their last 3 games.

 

[Vowelguy]

9 Auto bids remain:

Today:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (1) vs Hampton (3)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs W Kentucky (2)​

Tmow:

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)
Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)/Harvard(3)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)/Louisiana(6)​

NC A&T wins MEAC and possibly a trip to Storrs? They are 0-4 against the RPI 100.
And Seattle, which has been D1 for <10 years, earns a bid, and possibly a date with Oregon.

 

[triaddukefan]

I love tweets like this

 

[nwhoopfan]

Good for Seattle U. I'm thinking that's their first Tourney bid ever? Can't remember them making it previously. Men's program was a powerhouse a LONG time ago before moving down to D2. What a difference a year makes. One team from Seattle going Dancing and they don't wear purple and gold.

 

[Plebe]

That is a valid point about GW. On the flip side, would Oklahoma have a 23-6 record playing Dayton’s schedule? I would say no considering how inconsistent they’ve been all year. I think they’re a better team than Dayton when they play well, but Dayton’s had the better season and deserves the bid.

I don't agree that Dayton has had the better season just because they have a better record. Dayton's strength of schedule is barely in the top 100. Oklahoma's is #2. The impact of this disparity cannot be overstated.

I don't think that Dayton would have gone 11-7 in the Big 12. Oklahoma was actually quite consistent in the Big 12 season (unlike Oklahoma State, who lost to Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas). So I actually do think OK could have gone through the A-10 with only one loss, especially considering that no one else in the A-10 is even as good as TCU.

Both Massey and Sagarin rate Oklahoma much higher than Dayton.

• Massey has Oklahoma #38 and Dayton #57.
• Sagarin has Oklahoma #28 and Dayton #58.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Couple more auto bids. Cal State-Northridge from the Big West (I think that means UC-Davis gets an auto bid to the WNIT as a regular season champion) and Northern Colorado from the Big Sky.

 

[Plebe]

Couple more auto bids. Cal State-Northridge from the Big West (I think that means UC-Davis gets an auto bid to the WNIT as a regular season champion) and Northern Colorado from the Big Sky.

Second year in a row that UC Davis has dominated the Big West regular season and then had their hearts broken in the conference tournament.

 

[Vowelguy]

8 Auto bids remain:

Today:

Big West = UC Davis .. (1) vs CSU Northridge (5)
WAC .... = Bakersfield (2) vs Seattle (4)
MEAC ... = NC A&T .... (1) vs Hampton (3)
Conf USA = UAB .... .. (1) vs W Kentucky (2)​

Tmow:

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)
Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​

CSU Northridge is another team destined for a 16 seed

And I'll revise my earlier comment: Seattle finished in 4th place in the conference with the 2nd lowest RPI. I think they are the #64 team. They are a strong candidate for Storrs.

 

[nwhoopfan]

CSU Northridge is another team destined for a 16 seed

And I'll revise my earlier comment: Seattle finished in 4th place in the conference with the 2nd lowest RPI. I think they are the #64 team. They are a strong candidate for Storrs.

This post made me think of seeding for the women's volleyball tourney, which causes much grumbling and gnashing of teeth every year. They place an emphasis on minimizing travel costs and not so much on the relative strength of the teams. They only seed the top 16 overall and after that it's a crap shoot. One team (like Penn St. almost every year) could have 3 of the worst teams in the tourney in their pod for 1st and 2nd round games, while a Hawaii team that is ranked in the top 10 most years has to face off against a top Pac 12 in the 2nd round. It's ridiculous. Women's hoops fans should rejoice that they don't have to deal w/ that kind of nonsense.

 

[Plebe]

This post made me think of seeding for the women's volleyball tourney, which causes much grumbling and gnashing of teeth every year. They place an emphasis on minimizing travel costs and not so much on the relative strength of the teams. They only seed the top 16 overall and after that it's a crap shoot. One team (like Penn St. almost every year) could have 3 of the worst teams in the tourney in their pod for 1st and 2nd round games, while a Hawaii team that is ranked in the top 10 most years has to face off against a top Pac 12 in the 2nd round. It's ridiculous. Women's hoops fans should rejoice that they don't have to deal w/ that kind of nonsense.

This is not quite true about the volleyball tournament. The unseeded teams are roughly divided into tiers and the lowest quartile of teams are the ones forced to play seeded teams in the first round.

 

[nwhoopfan]

This is not quite true about the volleyball tournament. The unseeded teams are roughly divided into tiers and the lowest quartile of teams are the ones forced to play seeded teams in the first round.

Yes, but what about the other 2 teams in the same location for first round games as the seeded teams? There is tremendous unbalance largely determined by geography. Many years PSU has an absolute cake walk to the Sweet 16 playing against 2 terrible teams, while Hawaii is playing UW or one of the California teams in the 2nd round almost every year. Or many years there are some very good WCC or Big West teams that weren't seeded that have to play USC or UCLA in the 2nd round.

 

[Plebe]

And I'll revise my earlier comment: Seattle finished in 4th place in the conference with the 2nd lowest RPI. I think they are the #64 team. They are a strong candidate for Storrs.

I predict they will bump Seattle to a 15 and send them to Eugene. The committee loves geography.

 

[bballnut90]

This post made me think of seeding for the women's volleyball tourney, which causes much grumbling and gnashing of teeth every year. They place an emphasis on minimizing travel costs and not so much on the relative strength of the teams. They only seed the top 16 overall and after that it's a crap shoot. One team (like Penn St. almost every year) could have 3 of the worst teams in the tourney in their pod for 1st and 2nd round games, while a Hawaii team that is ranked in the top 10 most years has to face off against a top Pac 12 in the 2nd round. It's ridiculous. Women's hoops fans should rejoice that they don't have to deal w/ that kind of nonsense.

Agreed. In 2016 Penn State shouldn’t have been seeded at all and then received the 16 seed and a cake walk to the Sweet 16.

I don’t like the seeds being chosen based on region for basketball though...I think the 1 seed should get the weakest 2 in their region and the weakest 4. Hypothetically, if Mississippi State is the #2 overall seed, I don’t think their reward for that should be a matchup with Baylor in the Elite 8 while a lesser 1 seed gets a weaker #2.

 

[Plebe]

Which team do you pick?
Record is 20-11 from a P5 conference. Average RPI win is 168. Average RPI Loss is 19. Worst RPI loss is to an RPI 44

Record is 23-6 from a Mid Major. Average RPI win is 174. Average RPI loss is 59. Worst RPI losses include 78, 83 and 121.
Note: the losses to 78 and 121 were in 2 of their last 3 games.

I already know which teams you're describing here, so it's not really a blind test for me.

The problem with USC's resume is only 1-11 vs. the RPI top 50. But they also have wins over Arizona State and Purdue, both just outside the top 50. I don't know if USC will get in, but I certainly think they should be in ahead of Dayton.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I don't agree that Dayton has had the better season just because they have a better record. Dayton's strength of schedule is barely in the top 100. Oklahoma's is #2. The impact of this disparity cannot be overstated.

I don't think that Dayton would have gone 11-7 in the Big 12. Oklahoma was actually quite consistent in the Big 12 season (unlike Oklahoma State, who lost to Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas). So I actually do think OK could have gone through the A-10 with only one loss, especially considering that no one else in the A-10 is even as good as TCU.

Both Massey and Sagarin rate Oklahoma much higher than Dayton.

• Massey has Oklahoma #38 and Dayton #57.
• Sagarin has Oklahoma #28 and Dayton #58.

I wouldn't put Dayton in, although I think it is a possibility. But I struggle with Oklahoma. (I also don't really think RU should be in, although I certainly want them to be). I struggle with teams that have their seasons end badly (RU) and in OK's case, the issue is that they didn't have that "good" of a season. They did "ok" against strong competition. Dayton had a good season, but the competition wasn't worthy of an at large seed.

At least that's my take.

I don't do it anymore, but years ago - before her illness led to mental fatigue issues - my wife would prepare charts and we would analyze and try to pick who was in with all the gory details. It wasn't easy. I can diss Oklahoma, Dayton and even, in some ways, Rutgers - but someone has to get in. At some point when making my last picks I would be figuratively holding my nose as I picked a team. And that's what will get Oklahoma or Dayton or Rutgers or some combination in.

 

[Plebe]

I wouldn't put Dayton in, although I think it is a possibility. But I struggle with Oklahoma. (I also don't really think RU should be in, although I certainly want them to be). I struggle with teams that have their seasons end badly (RU) and in OK's case, the issue is that they didn't have that "good" of a season. They did "ok" against strong competition. Dayton had a good season, but the competition wasn't worthy of an at large seed.

At least that's my take.

I don't do it anymore, but years ago - before her illness led to mental fatigue issues - my wife would prepare charts and we would analyze and try to pick who was in with all the gory details. It wasn't easy. I can diss Oklahoma, Dayton and even, in some ways, Rutgers - but someone has to get in. At some point when making my last picks I would be figuratively holding my nose as I picked a team. And that's what will get Oklahoma or Dayton or Rutgers or some combination in.

Rutgers has 5 wins over the top 50, including a win over a likely top 16 team in NC State. Hard to see the committee leaving them out.

 

[Plebe]

I believe that the last 12 at-large bids will come from the following pool of 20 teams (in alphabetical order):

Arizona State, Buffalo, Cal, Creighton, Dayton,
Indiana, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota,
Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Purdue, Rutgers,
South Dakota, USC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

 

[Vowelguy]

3 Auto bids remain, with Nichols a new contender for #16

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)

Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​

 

[Vowelguy]

Locks/Clinched (25 + 18 Auto + 7 TBD)
ACC (5): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (2): DePaul, Marquette
Auto (17): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer, Boise St, Maine, CMichigan, Elon, Grambling, No Colorado, W Kentucky, CSU Northridge, Seattle, NC A&T, American
tbd = 7


Bubble teams (RPI in parentheses) - 25 for 14 spots (* = Creme pick)
ACC (5): Virginia* (31), Syracuse* (36), Miami* (50), GaTech (68), VaTech (67)
B12 (4): Oklahoma (34), Oklahoma St* (57), West Virginia (63), TCU (69)
B10 (7): Mich*(38), RU*(39), Minn*(40), Indi (54), Pur (62), MichSt (65), Nebr*(60)
Pac (3): Cal* (43), USC (49), Arizona St* (55)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Villanova* (29), Creighton* (48)
Oth (3): Dayton* (33), South Dakota (58), Buffalo* (21)
Oth (1): Princeton^ (30)