Locks and bubble teams by conference

[Plebe]

This post made me think of seeding for the women's volleyball tourney, which causes much grumbling and gnashing of teeth every year. They place an emphasis on minimizing travel costs and not so much on the relative strength of the teams. They only seed the top 16 overall and after that it's a crap shoot. One team (like Penn St. almost every year) could have 3 of the worst teams in the tourney in their pod for 1st and 2nd round games, while a Hawaii team that is ranked in the top 10 most years has to face off against a top Pac 12 in the 2nd round. It's ridiculous. Women's hoops fans should rejoice that they don't have to deal w/ that kind of nonsense.

This is not quite true about the volleyball tournament. The unseeded teams are roughly divided into tiers and the lowest quartile of teams are the ones forced to play seeded teams in the first round.

 

[nwhoopfan]

This is not quite true about the volleyball tournament. The unseeded teams are roughly divided into tiers and the lowest quartile of teams are the ones forced to play seeded teams in the first round.

Yes, but what about the other 2 teams in the same location for first round games as the seeded teams? There is tremendous unbalance largely determined by geography. Many years PSU has an absolute cake walk to the Sweet 16 playing against 2 terrible teams, while Hawaii is playing UW or one of the California teams in the 2nd round almost every year. Or many years there are some very good WCC or Big West teams that weren't seeded that have to play USC or UCLA in the 2nd round.

 

[Plebe]

And I'll revise my earlier comment: Seattle finished in 4th place in the conference with the 2nd lowest RPI. I think they are the #64 team. They are a strong candidate for Storrs.

I predict they will bump Seattle to a 15 and send them to Eugene. The committee loves geography.

 

[bballnut90]

This post made me think of seeding for the women's volleyball tourney, which causes much grumbling and gnashing of teeth every year. They place an emphasis on minimizing travel costs and not so much on the relative strength of the teams. They only seed the top 16 overall and after that it's a crap shoot. One team (like Penn St. almost every year) could have 3 of the worst teams in the tourney in their pod for 1st and 2nd round games, while a Hawaii team that is ranked in the top 10 most years has to face off against a top Pac 12 in the 2nd round. It's ridiculous. Women's hoops fans should rejoice that they don't have to deal w/ that kind of nonsense.

Agreed. In 2016 Penn State shouldn’t have been seeded at all and then received the 16 seed and a cake walk to the Sweet 16.

I don’t like the seeds being chosen based on region for basketball though...I think the 1 seed should get the weakest 2 in their region and the weakest 4. Hypothetically, if Mississippi State is the #2 overall seed, I don’t think their reward for that should be a matchup with Baylor in the Elite 8 while a lesser 1 seed gets a weaker #2.

 

[Plebe]

Which team do you pick?
Record is 20-11 from a P5 conference. Average RPI win is 168. Average RPI Loss is 19. Worst RPI loss is to an RPI 44

Record is 23-6 from a Mid Major. Average RPI win is 174. Average RPI loss is 59. Worst RPI losses include 78, 83 and 121.
Note: the losses to 78 and 121 were in 2 of their last 3 games.

I already know which teams you're describing here, so it's not really a blind test for me.

The problem with USC's resume is only 1-11 vs. the RPI top 50. But they also have wins over Arizona State and Purdue, both just outside the top 50. I don't know if USC will get in, but I certainly think they should be in ahead of Dayton.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I don't agree that Dayton has had the better season just because they have a better record. Dayton's strength of schedule is barely in the top 100. Oklahoma's is #2. The impact of this disparity cannot be overstated.

I don't think that Dayton would have gone 11-7 in the Big 12. Oklahoma was actually quite consistent in the Big 12 season (unlike Oklahoma State, who lost to Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas). So I actually do think OK could have gone through the A-10 with only one loss, especially considering that no one else in the A-10 is even as good as TCU.

Both Massey and Sagarin rate Oklahoma much higher than Dayton.

• Massey has Oklahoma #38 and Dayton #57.
• Sagarin has Oklahoma #28 and Dayton #58.

I wouldn't put Dayton in, although I think it is a possibility. But I struggle with Oklahoma. (I also don't really think RU should be in, although I certainly want them to be). I struggle with teams that have their seasons end badly (RU) and in OK's case, the issue is that they didn't have that "good" of a season. They did "ok" against strong competition. Dayton had a good season, but the competition wasn't worthy of an at large seed.

At least that's my take.

I don't do it anymore, but years ago - before her illness led to mental fatigue issues - my wife would prepare charts and we would analyze and try to pick who was in with all the gory details. It wasn't easy. I can diss Oklahoma, Dayton and even, in some ways, Rutgers - but someone has to get in. At some point when making my last picks I would be figuratively holding my nose as I picked a team. And that's what will get Oklahoma or Dayton or Rutgers or some combination in.

 

[Plebe]

I wouldn't put Dayton in, although I think it is a possibility. But I struggle with Oklahoma. (I also don't really think RU should be in, although I certainly want them to be). I struggle with teams that have their seasons end badly (RU) and in OK's case, the issue is that they didn't have that "good" of a season. They did "ok" against strong competition. Dayton had a good season, but the competition wasn't worthy of an at large seed.

At least that's my take.

I don't do it anymore, but years ago - before her illness led to mental fatigue issues - my wife would prepare charts and we would analyze and try to pick who was in with all the gory details. It wasn't easy. I can diss Oklahoma, Dayton and even, in some ways, Rutgers - but someone has to get in. At some point when making my last picks I would be figuratively holding my nose as I picked a team. And that's what will get Oklahoma or Dayton or Rutgers or some combination in.

Rutgers has 5 wins over the top 50, including a win over a likely top 16 team in NC State. Hard to see the committee leaving them out.

 

[Plebe]

I believe that the last 12 at-large bids will come from the following pool of 20 teams (in alphabetical order):

Arizona State, Buffalo, Cal, Creighton, Dayton,
Indiana, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota,
Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Purdue, Rutgers,
South Dakota, USC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

 

[Vowelguy]

3 Auto bids remain, with Nichols a new contender for #16

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)

Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​

 

[Vowelguy]

Locks/Clinched (25 + 18 Auto + 7 TBD)
ACC (5): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (2): DePaul, Marquette
Auto (17): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer, Boise St, Maine, CMichigan, Elon, Grambling, No Colorado, W Kentucky, CSU Northridge, Seattle, NC A&T, American
tbd = 7


Bubble teams (RPI in parentheses) - 25 for 14 spots (* = Creme pick)
ACC (5): Virginia* (31), Syracuse* (36), Miami* (50), GaTech (68), VaTech (67)
B12 (4): Oklahoma (34), Oklahoma St* (57), West Virginia (63), TCU (69)
B10 (7): Mich*(38), RU*(39), Minn*(40), Indi (54), Pur (62), MichSt (65), Nebr*(60)
Pac (3): Cal* (43), USC (49), Arizona St* (55)
SEC: none
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (2): Villanova* (29), Creighton* (48)
Oth (3): Dayton* (33), South Dakota (58), Buffalo* (21)
Oth (1): Princeton^ (30)

 

[Vowelguy]

DAYTON
Quality win: Virginia
Bad loss: @ St Louis
vs RPI 01-25: 0-2
vs RPI 26-50: 1-1
vs RPI 51-75: 3-0
vs RPI76-150: 8-3
vs RPI 150+ :11-0

OKLAHOMA
Quality wins: USF
Bad loss: Florida
vs RPI 01-25: 1-7
vs RPI 26-50: 0-1
vs RPI 51-75: 4-4
vs RPI76-150: 6-1
vs RPI 150+ : 5-1

Very tight. Okla's loss at home to Fla is a killer. But Dayton's nonconf sked of 3 teams not in the top 250 doesnt help.

 

[Plebe]

7 Auto bids remain, following American's win in the Patriot

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)
Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​

The Lumberjacks of Stephen F Austin vs the Colonels of Nicholls State game is on CBS Sports Network right now.
Live from the Merrell Center in Katy, TX.

Nicholls upset #1 seed Lamar in the semifinals, but SFA is off to a hot start in the final, up 16-4 in 1Q.

 

[ochoopsfan]

DAYTON
Quality win: Virginia
Bad loss: @ St Louis
vs RPI 01-25: 0-2
vs RPI 26-50: 1-1
vs RPI 51-75: 3-0
vs RPI76-150: 8-3
vs RPI 150+ :11-0

OKLAHOMA
Quality wins: USF
Bad loss: Florida
vs RPI 01-25: 1-7
vs RPI 26-50: 0-1
vs RPI 51-75: 4-4
vs RPI76-150: 6-1
vs RPI 150+ : 5-1

Very tight. Okla's loss at home to Fla is a killer. But Dayton's nonconf sked of 3 teams not in the top 250 doesnt help.

I dont know if you can call Daytons "Quality" win vs Virginia a Quality win as Virginia is a bubble team, IMO

 

[Plebe]

I dont know if you can call Daytons "Quality" win vs Virginia a Quality win as Virginia is a bubble team, IMO

Quality is a relative concept. In evaluating bubble teams, the committee generally considers wins over the top 50 to be quality wins, some of which by definition are bubble teams. But Oklahoma's win over South Florida (a top 25 team) is certainly better.

 

[triaddukefan]

The Bulldogs of UNC-Asheville go down in Flames to Liberty... their hopes for a 3-peat in the Big South are dashed

 

[UCBaller2012]

Twitter

This isn’t being positively received from what I have seen on twitter so far

 

[eebmg]

I think they are announcing today at 5PM the last 4 in and first 4 out prior to Monday's bracket announcements. I am not sure I get this since aren't all the tournaments over so what led them to the 8 teams should not change?

 

[Plebe]

I think they are announcing today at 5PM the last 4 in and first 4 out prior to Monday's bracket announcements. I am not sure I get this since aren't all the tournaments over so what led them to the 8 teams should not change?

Wow, I had to look this up and you're right, but to clarify: They are going to reveal the final 8 teams under consideration, 4 of which will be in and 4 out.



It's a teaser/promotional ploy for the selection show. I like it.

 

[Vowelguy]

Wow, I had to look this up and you're right, but to clarify: They are going to reveal the final 8 teams under consideration, 4 of which will be in and 4 out.

Trying to create some drama. A little rough on the players though.

Intriguing fir the bubble teams not mentioned. Are they safely in or way out?

 

[eebmg]

Wow, I had to look this up and you're right, but to clarify: They are going to reveal the final 8 teams under consideration, 4 of which will be in and 4 out.



It's a teaser/promotional ploy for the selection show. I like it.

Oh I get it, the committee knows but they are giving a tease for the analysts to play with.

 

[Vowelguy]

3 Auto bids remain, with Nichols a new contender for #16

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)

Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​

 

[Plebe]

3 Auto bids remain, with Nichols a new contender for #16

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)

Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​

Nicholls likely to be sent to Starkville.

 

[Vowelguy]

Nicholls likely to be sent to Starkville.

Could be Grambling.

 

[Vowelguy]

1 Auto bid left!

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)

Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​

 

[triaddukefan]

9 Auto bids remain:
NC A&T wins MEAC and possibly a trip to Storrs? They are 0-4 against the RPI 100.
And Seattle, which has been D1 for <10 years, earns a bid, and possibly a date with Oregon.

I wouldnt wish that on my Aggies.... but if that indeed happen... at least the people in Storrs could hear an exciting pep band.... probably would help keep some of those in attendance awake.

 

[Vowelguy]

FINAL

Patriot .= American .. (1) vs Navy (3)
Southlnd = Nichols ... (4) vs Stephen F Austin (2)
BigSouth = Liberty ... (1) vs UNC Asheville (3)
NEC .... = StFrancisPA (1) vs Robert Morris (2)
MoValley = Drake ..... (1) vs Northern Iowa (3)

Atla Sun = FGCU ... .. (1) vs Jacksonville (2)
Ivy .... = Princeton . (1) vs Penn(2)
Sun Belt = Little Rock (1) vs Texas St(2)​

 

[Vowelguy]

Locks/Clinched (25 + 25 Auto)
ACC (5): Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida St, Duke, NC State
B12 (2): Baylor, Texas
B10 (3): Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa
Pac (4): Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon St
SEC (7): MissSt, SoCarolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
AAC (2): UConn, South Florida
BgE (2): DePaul, Marquette
Auto (25): GreenBay, Quinnipiac, SoDakSt, GeoWash, Gonzaga, Belmont, Mercer, Boise St, Maine, CMichigan, Elon, Grambling, No Colorado, W Kentucky, CSU Northridge, Seattle, NC A&T, American, Princeton, Little Rock, Liberty, FGCU, Drake, StFrancisPA, Nicholls


Bubble teams (RPI in parentheses) - 25 for 14 spots (* = Creme pick)
Likely In [6]: Okla St (57), Mich (38), Nebr (60), Cal (43), Ariz St (55), Villanova (29)

ACC (5): Virginia* (31), Syracuse* (36), Miami* (50), GaTech (68), VaTech (67)
B12 (2): Oklahoma (34), West Virginia (63)
B10 (3): RU*(39), Minn*(40), Pur (62)
Pac (1): USC (49)
AAC (1): UCF (44)
BgE (1): Creighton* (48)
Oth (3): Dayton* (33), South Dakota (58), Buffalo* (21)

Likely Out [3]: TCU (69), Indi (54), Mich St (65)

 

[triaddukefan]

Gotta feel for Texas State...... were down 20 points to UALR ... came back and took the lead late in the 4th...... went back down 1..... and had the conference player of the year miss a driving layup that would have won the game Tough way to go out for a Senior.