My point was after P5 jobs, Felicia (Indiana) spent time at Buffalo who was, at best an ok, mid-major and she turned them into a good mid-major with 4 NCAA bids and 1 WNIT bid in 10 years and got the Syracuse job. Kelli (NC State) went to Missouri State and again, did a good job there taking them to 5 straight post-season births before the Tennessee job. So, they repaired their image at a lower school where as Coquese Washington spiraled down at PSU going 29-51 (last 5 years) and 90-106 (overall in 12 years) and is now 7-29 in 2 years at Rutgers. I think Rutgers erred in selecting Coquese vs. a recent proven winner.
I think, like most jobs, you need success climbing the ladder and getting a top job than after just an assistant role. Making that is a big jump and is harder than many ADs think. The ACC has 4 of 15 who never coached anywhere including Jeff Walz who took over a Louisville program and made them big vs. Duke/UNC/FSU. The SEC had 4 now 3-Vandy, Auburn & MSU. The Big 12 has 3 with Collen-WNBA, Huey-Houston, Whiting-BYU . The PAC12 has 2-Close at UCLA and Barnes at Arizona. The Big 10 has zero. That is 11 of 69 P5 Coaches who never ran a program before their current team. I guess we could list the last 5 years of P5 firings to see how "just assistant coach experience" vs. "prior head coach experience" to really tell but 5 out of 6 times some prior experience seems to be the rule for P5.