Something changed negatively in a big way as the season wore on when you look at his stats. Could it be level of competition was higher? "The freshman wall"? Possibly it was some other reason known only to Chief, but the decline really stands out. Thoughts?
The four lines below break out his season into three groups plus the whole year as follows: the first 10 games, the middle 12 games and the last 10 games.
First 10 games: 2 Pt%-45.8, 3 Pt%-45.2 and FT%-78.8.
Next 12 games: 2 Pt%-35.8, 3 Pt%-30.2 and FT%-80.0
Last 10 games: 2 Pt%-27.5, 3 Pt%-19.3 and FT%-74.2.
Full Season: 2 Pt%-37.0, 3 Pt%-31.6 and FT%-78.0.
Solid at the line all year and got off to a great start overall in those first 10 games.
First game of the year, on the road at Clemson (30 points on 12/23 on 2's, 4/8 on 3's and 5 rebounds) was one of nine games in double figures out of the first ten games. The fans probably thought they had a first team All-American.
However, during his awful last ten games, the ninth to last game, home to BC (29 points on 12/22 on 2's, 2/7 on 3's and 11 rebounds), was one of only five in double figures and the other four were the result of volume shooting. Here's his 2 Pt shooting numbers for the other nine games: 4/14, 3/15, 4/21, 1/8, 3/10, 2/9, 2/9, 3/12 and 4/11.
I just look at Kenpom for the end of the year to see if it was competition level...
First 10: Clemson 72, Coppin st 327, USC Upstate 325, Lehigh 304, Delaware St. 346, Michigan State 7, Dayton 4, BYU 13 , Duke 5, Chattannooga 147. Average = 155
Next 12: Gardner Webb 218 , Virginia MI 257, UME 349, Virginia 42, Cuse 51, NC State 50, Wake 103, Cuse 51, UNC 84, BC 179, Miami 104, FSU 15, Average = 125
Last 10: Georgia Tech 64, BC 179, Pitt 111 , Miami 104, Duke 5, UVA 42 , Louisville 9 , Clemson 72 , Notre Dame 57, UNC 84, Average = 73
So yeah, the competition level clearly went up. But at the same time, he actually shot pretty well versus the early high-level competition: 5/12 (4/6) vs MSU, 5/13 (3/6) vs Dayton, 3/7 (0/2) vs Duke. That's not bad versus the first 3 legit opponents. That's 41% from the floor and 50% from deep. Maybe the hot shooting start wasn't sustainable... or teams got the scout and figured out his weaknesses at the rim.
The middle groups had some decent teams... Virginia, NC State, and of course FSU. But no one that would end up ranked in the end.
And in the last couple months of the season or whatever it was... vs Duke 3/10 (1/5), Louisville 2/9 (0/4). Ugly.
Clearly played his best ball at the beginning of the season. But it didn't *seem* to be associated with the lower-ranked teams exclusively. Kid played 4 top 20 teams in a row and hammered them all at a high %. That was legit basketball versus really, really good teams.
My guess would be he got scouted well and his teammates couldn't do much to help--Virginia Tech sucked this year, ended up ranked 105. If teams figured out he can't drive right or finish well at the rim, they could sell out on the 3-ball and allow gross long 2s that he seemed to settle for so much in highlights. He also was just required as the only/best option on the team to take bad, bailout shots. The Tech offense is terrible. TERRIBLE. In the highlights (the highlights!!) It looks like they have 2-3 guys in the paint most of the time--totally disorganized. There's also just the mental component involved too that none of us could ever predict.
