Kia Nurse: early commitment reports; rankings debate

[meyers7]

For what it’s worth, I have no real interest in what Kia Nurse’s ranking/ratings are – a little curiosity, maybe, but I don’t pay attention; if it wasn’t for the mathematical aspect I probably would have surfed the thread and moved on.

And I certainly am not interested in making her look better; I’m pretty sure that I mentioned last night that I would also look at ignoring the “11” in something like an 11-156-157-159 as an outlier.

But like UCONNfan1, I have lived in the mathematical world and for people like me the outlier just bugs me because i know it skews the results. Those principles – recognizing and when appropriate ignoring an outlier – are present in virtually everything done by people in the mathematical/technical fields from insurance actuaries to nuclear engineers, so those of us that live in those worlds are just uncomfortable with known bad data.

And that's fine. Then you should know (really if you are in the mathematical world, you should know this) you just can't throw out outliers because you don't like them, or think they are outliers. You have to have a formula for determining what is an outlier and then that has to be applied to "all" the players. Not just, well we don't like this one on this player, because we like this player and want her to look better, so let's change it (ignore it).

 

[doggydaddy]

​

AbsoF@#$ ^lutely.


No you don't. Otherwise you would be petitioning for a formulatic change for everyone. Not just getting rid of (in your opinion) one "outlier" on one player so that one player looks better so you feel better.

Not speaking for Eric, but don't you see how this looks to many people to be a unique situation and not just a formulatic change for everyone?

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Remember this thread when the Boneyard Annual Awards nominations are due. Think this is a slam dunk for Most Sustained Derailment of a Thread Award.

 

[doggydaddy]

And that's fine. Then you should know (really if you are in the mathematical world, you should know this) you just can't throw out outliers because you don't like them, or think they are outliers. You have to have a formula for determining what is an outlier and then that has to be applied to "all" the players. Not just, well we don't like this one on this player, because we like this player and want her to look better, so let's change it (ignore it).

If you can find ONE other player that has close to a 156 rating in one service and and in the teens in 2 other service, I might agree with you.

This is a unique situation based on her not being in the American HS system.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

Well, many good points here, but in the end I just want Vowel Guy to post as he sees fit. SO...for this day only, I will buy Vowel one beer for every post he makes. See if we can smoke him out.

 

[Suebird10fan]

I agree, Notre Dame will be the biggest competition for more National Championships . They are going to be a big team, and having a single post is risky.

I agree John that ND is the big threat, especially two yrs from now. They're the only one team that really makes me nervous.

 

[Tonyc]

I think we are all concerned about ND because we lost to them 3 times last year. We lost when we were injured we won big when we weren't and although ND still looks good and has a great freshman class I still like that we have some terrific guards and some game changers and you can add Saniya to that game changer list.

 

[Adesmar123]

I absolutely agree. In Neopolitan ice cream, the chocolate needs to be in the middle.

 

[doggydaddy]

Well, many good points here, but in the end I just want Vowel Guy to post as he sees fit. SO...for this day only, I will buy Vowel one beer for every post he makes. See if we can smoke him out.

He is holding his breath until he turns blue until we stop challenging his system. Hopefully he will pass out with his finger on the keyboard. I do want to see his new rankings. Even if I disagree with his handling of the very unique Nurse situation.

 

[cohenzone]

Dewey Beats Truman!!!

Really, who cares (I guess a lot of people) who is ranked where? The kids get to play the game and our coaches are decent judges of talent. They rarely have screwed up and more often than not UConn kids other than the obvious hs superstars make the ranking services look silly, as the WNBA rosters show.

 

[Geno-ista]

i havn't read the entire thread- I know how good Natalie Achonwa is. Where are comparable players ranked or rated in college or recently in the WNBA that have achieved comparable success on the Canadian National team that she has? If this info is above- i apolgoize!

 

[boontonbomber]

Dewey Beats Truman!!!

Really, who cares (I guess a lot of people) who is ranked where? The kids get to play the game and our coaches are decent judges of talent. They rarely have screwed up and more often than not UConn kids other than the obvious hs superstars make the ranking services look silly, as the WNBA rosters show.

exactly right. saniya was ranked what?

 

[EricSD]

AbsoF@#$ ^lutely.


No you don't. Otherwise you would be petitioning for a formulatic change for everyone. Not just getting rid of (in your opinion) one "outlier" on one player so that one player looks better so you feel better.

Just stop. Stop trying to put words in my mouth or decide what I'm trying to say. Seriously, knock it off. I gave my reasons, you disagree, and continue to go on and on and on and on and on. You don't agree - I get it. You think we "only want ourselves to feel better." I guarantee you that's not the case and I've said as much. So stop trying to attribute something to my comments that do not exist.

There have been many other "rankings" that people have disagreed with. Several were extreme outliers. Saniya Chong most recently at 75 per HG. but she was 20-30 per everyone else. Kelly Faris 34 per HG but she was top 10 everywhere else. Kiah Stokes 42 per HG but she was top 15 everywhere else. But all of those crazy HG rankings pale in comparison to Nurse at 156.

It honestly makes zero difference to me what he uses for his composite rankings. It's just a number, and just like Chong at 75 was wrong, so would Kia at 156. Doesn't mean his graph isn't entertaining. It is. It's just not accurate.

But I am and will continue to be thrilled we landed Nurse. I believe she's going to be a terrific player and a starter during her UCONN career. And I love the class we landed. No matter where the experts or a UCONN fan thinks our class ranks, it's an awesome class of guards and wings and sets UCONN up to continue to dominate the WCBB world, which is really what is most exciting!

 

[JRRRJ]

Seriously? LOL. Nope. I can't speak for everyone, but speaking for myself, I'd just like the numbers to be accurate and not a joke.

I think we can all agree Saniya Chong at 75 was as joke. Kelly Faris at 34 was a joke. And now Kia Nurse at 156 is a joke.

If you want the numbers to be accurate, my take is that you need to speak to the ratings services first, not VG.

He's explained his methodology, so you can decide if the meta-analysis is useful or not. But extrapolating from rankings generated out of data we know is sparse, observation-biased and subjective is gonna be a fool's errand no matter what methodology you apply to it.

 

[EricSD]

If you want the numbers to be accurate, my take is that you need to speak to the ratings services first, not VG.

He's explained his methodology, so you can decide if the meta-analysis is useful or not. But extrapolating from data we know is sparse, observation-biased and subjective is gonna be a fool's errand no matter what methodology you apply to it.

LOL

 

[JS]

I'd hate to try to decide which restaurant to go to with any of you folks.

Or at least any two of you.

If you disagreed, which you probably would, you'd argue 'til we starved.

 

[JRRRJ]

I'd hate to try to decide which restaurant to go to with any of you folks.

Or at least any two of you.

If you disagreed, which you probably would, you'd argue 'til we starved.

Not me, I eat anything.

Except salty fish.

 

[Zorro]

Geno's, mebbe?

 

[pinotbear]

I'd hate to try to decide which restaurant to go to with any of you folks.

Or at least any two of you.

If you disagreed, which you probably would, you'd argue 'til we starved.

 

[cohenzone]

Geno's, mebbe?

Yuck.

 

[baggerbob]

The only ranking that matters in the end is Geno wanted her, case is closed.

 

[ctchamps]

The only ranking that matters in the end is Geno wanted her, case is closed.

That's the way I see it. Hard to figure why so much discussion about her ranking when this is the salient point.

 

[HuskyFanBlue]

o

 

[Icebear]

Not me, I eat anything.

Except salty fish.

Especially, hairy, salty fish, except when used in salad dressing.

 

[doggydaddy]

I'd hate to try to decide which restaurant to go to with any of you folks.

Or at least any two of you.

If you disagreed, which you probably would, you'd argue 'til we starved.

I would just argue the method of deciding. I'd bring a sandwich.

 

[Icebear]

Of course you'd want us to jump at the first opportunity rather than push the decision forward with a hop, skip, and a jump.

 

[Adesmar123]

This is looking more and more like an off season thread. I thought it would have died a timely death after the season began.

 

[jsloanjr]

Who cares about all this back story today. She is now a Husky and we are very lucky to have her and a great job on the coaching staff............

 

[AndyCT]

And that's fine. Then you should know (really if you are in the mathematical world, you should know this) you just can't throw out outliers because you don't like them, or think they are outliers. You have to have a formula for determining what is an outlier and then that has to be applied to "all" the players. Not just, well we don't like this one on this player, because we like this player and want her to look better, so let's change it (ignore it).

Actually, I really am in the mathematical world. I come from a family of “technical people” – all the boys became engineers and the girls are all analysts. While I initially worked in engineering, today I do statistical work on my off days (which is why I don’t post very often – busy busy busy) on staffing for both my company (secondary) and the labor union (primary) which includes projecting pilot staffing levels in different bases and airplanes based on past trends. So I am all about data and trends on a level that would make your head hurt.

You seem to be stuck on the idea that I and most of the others are arbitrarily throwing out the low ranking because it is low - that’s simply not so – and that we “have to have a formula for determining what is an outlier and then that has to be applied to "all" the players” – that’s also not so. Judgment is an important human trait and it doesn’t have to rely on some (supposedly) infallible mathematical formula.

Most animals can recognize patterns and deviations. Studies have shown that pigeons can tell a Van Gogh from a Picasso. They don’t actually recognize the paintings (nor would I), they simply recognize patterns in the painters’ styles. So do humans, and (almost) all of us look at the pattern 11-11-14-156 and know that “one of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn’t belong.” A pigeon would, anyway.

Formulas can certainly be used to screen for outliers, but the final decision can (and usually should) still be made by a human (all my programming at work does just that – it flags outliers, but I decide whether to keep them or not). As another poster mentioned we could use a Wilcoxon filter (or a Kamman filter or others) but something much simpler like standard deviation, or even just a wide percentage would also work – if a number is more than 50% or a hundred numbers different it is flagged to be evaluated. Or simply, like the pigeon, if it just doesn’t look right.


JRRRJ – makes a good point, I think I may have said something kind of similar earlier about the fact that the rating services themselves are compilers. By their nature anything they put out can be iffy. Generally there is a consensus on the better players that are observed a lot so the numbers come out closely for the higher rankings; there is much more spread among the lower rankings – kind of a crapshoot the lower you get...which is why blind adherence to including anything they publish doesn't make sense. We know they can be wrong.

The bottom line is that, while Kia’s Boneyard ranking isn’t all that important, if it is going to be useful, it needs to be as accurate as it can be given the limitations that JRRRJ mentioned – subjective, sparse, and observation-biased data. Otherwise, what’s the point in using a number that we know isn't really right?

And really, all the arguing aside, does anyone really believe that Geno thinks he signed the 156th best player in the country? I bet he doesn’t…

 

[HGN]

You may be right, but it struck me this morning that she's just opening herself up to more pressure by not announcing now. Every program must still be pursuing her, and she might be getting even more pressure from the Gamecocks now than later.

Sam , I think you have a good point. But being thought of as the No.1 player has a lot of pressure with it. She's probably damned if she do , and damned if she don't. She and her family probably are playing this out the best way they know how. Whether announcing now is better , or later , one is just as bad as the other in their eyes.

I guess we have to wait until Spring to find out. In the meantime let's keep our fingers crossed.