Kia Nurse: early commitment reports; rankings debate

[doggydaddy]

No.

No. "Ranking" her is watching, observing her, evaluating her, and then comparing her to other players who have been watched, observed, evaluated.


Or maybe the 11 and 14 need to be ignored. How about say 7, 8, 13, 21. Is 21 now an outlier? Then instead of just compiling the numbers that people who evaluate them, you start making decisions on what you think the players are like.

If you change the formula, or formulate what you consider and "outlier", then, then you can adjust the raw data. But just changing the raw data.....just because you don't like it, or you don't think it fits, then no you can't do that without prejudice.

There is a clear dropping of the ball in a couple of sites. Vowelguy did adjust her based on her "card" and being a 5 star. He decided to use the worst ranked 5 start and put her after that player. He made a judgement call. How does he know that is correct? Maybe she is better than that?

And using a ranking of 7,8,13,21 is nothing like 11, 14 and the 100+ that was used in one ranking service.

We really disagree on this. It's one player that he knows is was not ranked because she is from Canada and not seen by anyone. He doesn't have to rank her. Just don't use the NR that one or two sites have for her. It should be held against her.

 

[Zorro]

There's always a bear in a fight. At least around here. Or a dog. Or a dog and a bear.

Oh my!

 

[jsloanjr]

Did we see her in the crowd today?

 

[UConnCat]

Geno has some nice things to say about Coquese at the post-game press conference with Kia Nurse in the back of the room.

“They been building a women’s basketball tradition here since the 1980s,” said Auriemma. “It took a down turn for a while, but Coquese [Washington] has done a great job since she came here [in 2007] bringing a style of play that the fans seem to enjoy so much. This is one of those players where you can be really good, create a lot of excitement in the community.
“There are probably about 20 schools in the country that people think about being really good, from top to bottom, in everything [campus-wide]. And they are one of them.”

Then he spoke to what's different about his program and a handful of others:

“I know it sounds simplistic, but the teams that consistently contend for the Final Four and national titles are the ones who get the best players. And it doesn’t matter the sport.

“Recruiting is a huge component [of sustained success]. But then there is something else. Some programs expect to play in the Final Four and win national championships. Others are just happy if they get there. It’s a mindset you eventually obtain, but it takes a while. You need to be successful for quite some time before you come to expect it.

“That is kind of where we are now. We’ve been doing this so long, and had so much success, the players that come here expect to be great.”

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Can't help the fact that the game between two of her three finalists is at Penn State. I tend to think she is about certain where she wants to commit, but wanted to see the two play heads up just to be absolutely sure. If the game happened to be in Connecticut, would you be thinking she is about to commit to UConn? Simply basing your thoughts based on the game location is illogical. Both schools are on her list of finalists. Maybe her parents don't get the Big 10 Network like I don't and this was the only way to see the game? I just don't think you can read anything into her attending the game as meaning she wouldn't go if she was not going to commit to PSU. She may indeed do so. Or she may not. But the game was in PA, not CT. It is what it is.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

Think you misunderstood me. I was saying it would be ungracious or insensitive for a recruit to go to a game between 2 of her finalists and announce there. I was not attempting to draw an inference about the decision itself.

 

[pap49cba]

Nothing new (Yet) about Nurse. LINK

 

[UConnChapette]

Think you misunderstood me. I was saying it would be ungracious or insensitive for a recruit to go to a game between 2 of her finalists and announce there. I was not attempting to draw an inference about the decision itself.

Ah, well...why didn’t you just say so? :-D You are right, I did misunderstand. I agree that it would be insensitive. But since the trip was not an official visit, I am not sure about the ungracious part. Nonetheless, we will know when she announces her decision.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[AndyCT]

If you change the formula, or formulate what you consider and "outlier", then, then you can adjust the raw data. But just changing the raw data.....just because you don't like it, or you don't think it fits, then no you can't do that without prejudice.

Yes you can - no prejudice is involved, just discretion.

No one is talking about altering Kia Nurse’s rankings – just about deciding which ones to use in our in-house compilation, just as the rating services decide which evaluations to use to arrive at their rankings. There is no requirement that just because a service has assigned a rating to a player, we have to use it. If history suggests a particular service has a history of accuracy over the years we can place more weight on it; and conversely if another service has a history of missing, we can place less weight on it - or even ignore it.

In my earlier life I was trained (and later worked) in engineering, aka the brotherhood of pain. When we analyze data, we look for outliers – is there a data point or two that is far off from the others or from what was predicted, and if so, why? Is it a bad sensor, or is something going on that we didn’t understand? And if the latter, do we need to go back and revise our analysis? It’s not a question of prejudice against data that lies outside the norm, but the discretion, after looking at the data, to exclude it (bad sensor) or include it (and revise our analysis).

Using the “bad sensor” example, it is far more likely that the three high rankings are more accurate than something silly like the single low ranking. And we do know from subjective reports and evaluations that she is a top level player (Canadian national team would be a good starting point) so the three high rankings all fit with what we predict or expect, while the single low number does not.

Because (as has been discussed in other threads) Kia Nurse has had less exposure in the States it is harder to compare her accurately (and then rank her) to other high school seniors who compete against each other more often. The rankings coming out of high school are always a little iffy anyway, certainly the farther down you go, but there is an added uncertainty because the majority of her experience in Canada would make any ranking of her a little iffy. If on the other hand, she was from the States, I would be wary of a ranking 140 numbers above or below all the others but would lean towards including it anyway unless there were other reasons to exclude it.

And that’s the point with Kia Nurse – there are a bunch of consistently high rankings and evaluations, one extreme low outlier, and one missing ranking. Knowing her circumstances, the two odd outliers – 156 and NR (which I think we all agree in this case is not the same as “unranked”) should probably be ignored. But if they’re not, it’s not the end of the world – we can all decide individually how much weight to place on any one ranking.

At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter much anyway – this is a Boneyard compilation – it isn’t going to affect recruiting or anything, and the ratings police won't shut us down whether or not we use every available ranking. It’s just a much appreciated tool and since we’re pretty much all aware of Kia Nurse’s ranking we can choose to agree or disagree with her overall Boneyard ranking…

 

[Icebear]

Could the location of the game provide a hint to where she is headed?

No.

 

[Fiftyish]

At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter much anyway – this is a Boneyard compilation – it isn’t going to affect recruiting or anything, and the ratings police won't shut us down whether or not we use every available ranking. …

Doesn't matter? Really? Have you not read the posts in this thread?

 

[Icebear]

Observing a flaw or problem is not the same as a complaint or criticism of VG. It is simply noting a issue and suggesting a potential solution. Clearly, VG has done a great deal of valuable and excellent work.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

Dealing with Outliers...

http://www.lynda.com/SPSS-tutorials/Combining-excluding-outliers/83838/88560-4.html

 

[johnnyc]

I still say it's a set shot.....oh wait.....

 

[meyers7]

Run the Wilcoxon test for statistical outliers.

Ok, but that's kind of asking a bit of someone who is just compiling a bunch of numbers. On their own time, just because. Just to appease a few whiners. Don't ya think?

 

[Sonny44]

Ok, but that's kind of asking a bit of someone who is just compiling a bunch of numbers. On their own time, just because. Just to appease a few whiners. Don't ya think?

Actually I was kidding.

 

[doggydaddy]

Ok, but that's kind of asking a bit of someone who is just compiling a bunch of numbers. On their own time, just because. Just to appease a few whiners. Don't ya think?

Whiners to you, champions of truth to others!!!!!

Seriously, it doesn't matter, but to have Nurse ranked 40th when everyone and their brother knows she more like a top 15 player is just stubborn.

 

[meyers7]

There is a clear dropping of the ball in a couple of sites.

Not necessarily. Maybe they just don't rank Foreigners? Maybe that's their policy?

Vowelguy did adjust her based on her "card" and being a 5 star. He decided to use the worst ranked 5 start and put her after that player. He made a judgement call. How does he know that is correct? Maybe she is better than that?

Maybe she isn't? And he probably shouldn't have done that. But it's his compilation. He can do it however he wants. And sure, you guys can whine all you want.

And using a ranking of 7,8,13,21 is nothing like 11, 14 and the 100+ that was used in one ranking service.

Maybe, maybe not. But you are making assumptions and manipulating the raw data at that point. You are deciding what is a good ranking and a bad ranking, iyo. i.e. you are now ranking the players based on your own assumptions. Quite different than compiling data.

We really disagree on this. It's one player that he knows is was not ranked because she is from Canada and not seen by anyone. He doesn't have to rank her. Just don't use the NR that one or two sites have for her. It should be held against her.

This really bothers you huh? Wow. She doesn't fall in the rankings where you think she should, so people NEED to make changes to how they do things. Geez, a little God-complex there, don't ya think?

Geez, why don't YOU add in the walk-ons to your scouting reports? HUH????? Some people don't like that you leave them out. You NEED to make some changes to pacify all the whiners.

 

[meyers7]

Actually I was kidding.

Actually I had to look it up.

Never took Stats. (I assume that is where one might learn that??)

 

[meyers7]

Nothing new (Yet) about Nurse. LINK

Awesome. News about no news.

 

[doggydaddy]

Not necessarily. Maybe they just don't rank Foreigners? Maybe that's their policy?


Maybe she isn't? And he probably shouldn't have done that. But it's his compilation. He can do it however he wants. And sure, you guys can whine all you want.


Maybe, maybe not. But you are making assumptions and manipulating the raw data at that point. You are deciding what is a good ranking and a bad ranking, iyo. i.e. you are now ranking the players based on your own assumptions. Quite different than compiling data.


This really bothers you huh? Wow. She doesn't fall in the rankings where you think she should, so people NEED to make changes to how they do things. Geez, a little God-complex there, don't ya think?

Geez, why don't YOU add in the walk-ons to your scouting reports? HUH????? Some people don't like that you leave them out. You NEED to make some changes to pacify all the whiners.

Does Vowelguy have incriminating pictures of you?

 

[meyers7]

Yes you can - no prejudice is involved, just discretion.

No it's prejudice, as in bias.

just about deciding which ones to use in our in-house compilation, just as the rating services decide which evaluations to use to arrive at their rankings. There is no requirement that just because a service has assigned a rating to a player, we have to use it. If history suggests a particular service has a history of accuracy over the years we can place more weight on it; and conversely if another service has a history of missing, we can place less weight on it - or even ignore it.

Yes and that's exactly biased (prejudiced). You are making a decision on what is good and what is bad, in data. But only for one instance. Again if you formulate it, then no problem.

But if they’re not, it’s not the end of the world – we can all decide individually how much weight to place on any one ranking.

Yes, exactly what I was saying....bias.

At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter much anyway – this is a Boneyard compilation – it isn’t going to affect recruiting or anything, and the ratings police won't shut us down whether or not we use every available ranking. It’s just a much appreciated tool and since we’re pretty much all aware of Kia Nurse’s ranking we can choose to agree or disagree with her overall Boneyard ranking…

True, that's why I wonder why people are whining so much about it.

 

[meyers7]

Does Vowelguy have incriminating pictures of you?

Who doesn't?

In general, vowel and I don't really agree all that often. But you guys should know me by now, I'm not really on anybodies side all the time. I'm all about truth and the American way.

 

[Icebear]

It is only prejudice or bias if you treat one situation or player that way. If one treats all outliers equally it is not necessarily bias. Ex. If one discounter all scores 2 or more units of standard deviation the same high or low then it can be used simply used as statistically adjustment overall to control the bias of individual rating services.

 

[Icebear]

Who doesn't?

In general, vowel and I don't really agree all that often. But you guys should know me by now, I'm not really on anybodies side all the time. I'm all about truth and the American way.

No, and that is why I trust your thoughts and consider them seriously whether with me or agin me.

 

[DavidinNaples]

Does Vowelguy have incriminating pictures of you?

I doubt it is the pictures....probably the bonding that took place during that brief period they were in a Turkish prison together...but I could be wrong.

On a less serious note, which one of you "champions of perfect procedures for ranking recruits" is going to take over for vowel when he stops producing his imperfect product...?