Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[yuckformak]

The Big12 advantage over the Acc is no team in the Big12 is going anywhere else. They don’t have any other options. While multiple Acc schools may have better options.

This.......the ACC is going to be vastly different. Get rid of UNC, Clemson, FSU, NC State, and maybe the 2 Virginia's. Would you rather be in a Conference with those schools or in the Big 12?

 

[bendm]

ND over the ACC.

It looks like Stanford and Cal are getting in, so Notre Dame got its way. Like I said, it helps to have all the leverage in a negotiation.

what was ND threatening the ACC with? to start a conference with Cal, Stanford, Rice, Tulane and the 3 mid major service academies?

ND would be sacrificing the $10 mill they get from the ACC. would NBC make up for it by paying them $30 mill? how much are the other 7 schools worth to NBC/peacock in this hypo? this theory is less than half-baked.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Very interesting...

That’s what the California board of regents said about UCLA leaving CAL behind . When it becomes a question of survival it’s every man for himself .
Oregon and Washington took 1/2 shares even if they’re leaving ment the destruction of another in state school . I believe that was also a very painful decision for the locals . That’s called survival. . If ACC fell apart UNC would have no choice .
It’s becomes a buyers market and if you play hardball they can easily find a replacement.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

what was ND threatening the ACC with? to start a conference with Cal, Stanford, Rice, Tulane and the 3 mid major service academies?

ND would be sacrificing the $10 mill they get from the ACC. would NBC make up for it by paying them $30 mill? how much are the other 7 schools worth to NBC/peacock in this hypo? this theory is less than half-baked.

Why are you freaking out at me about some inside baseball ACC thing? Chill.

 

[hank970]

No one eight years ago would have thought the B12, as currently composed, was as attractive a conference as the ACC, as currently composed. FSU, Clemson, UNC, Notre Dame, Duke are all elite athletics schools, and many other programs have good athletic histories; it leads or is competitive in major markets. Meanwhile, the B12 has second-tier programs in its many states (its Texas schools are behind Texas and Texas A&M; Oklahoma State is behind Oklahoma; Iowa State is behind Iowa; Kansas, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah are the only states where it is the leader; it has many low-value programs diluting its value.

The only reason people think the B12 is stronger than the ACC is recency bias -- the B12 has been improving its position while the ACC has been bickering and incapable of acting. But there's no reason to assume you can extrapolate recent trends indefinitely into the future.

The B12 has stabilized its position with the Arizona/Colorado/Utah adds, but it has also limited its upside. It is now a large plains-mountain conference that can't easily grow further. If the ACC implodes the B12 is well positioned to become a "best of the rest" third national conference in a P3, but if the ACC holds together it will surpass the B12 in future contracts and be third in a P4.

Considering the latest rounds of conference realignment, it's evident that the B12 and networks perceived some value in the additions they made. Clearly, there were/are other metrics of importance to them that you simply can't recognize or accept. Is it possible they know something that you don't?

Beyond that, every P conference, including the vaunted SEC and B1G, includes schools which aren't state flagships -- second-fiddle, low value schools, in your estimation. Auburn, Clemson, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Florida State, three ACC schools in North Carolina which aren't UNC, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt, Vanderbilt, Louisville, and so on. Some have enjoyed considerable success on the field and on the court. Conversely, some of the state flagships in those conferences haven't.

 

[CoastAtlantic]

 

[HuskyDogArt]

I don't think the Big XII stopped expanding. I think you'll see another Realignment after this football season. The two most endangered leagues are the ACC and the PAC 10 and I think if FSU and Clemson gets an invite to the SEC, they will do whatever it takes to declare the GOR NILL & VOID. The PAC 10 if Stanford and Cal gets an invite to the B1G, they say bye ASAP.

 

[JeepCSC]

He went to (drumroll please), UNC. As did the governor. They'll do what they can but nothing more.

 

[Rufus]

Doesn't sound like they are connected at the hip to me.

 

[UCFBfan]

1. You have lawyers for friends? You need better friends.

2. So you get information from a friend in a position to know something, and blithely dismiss it to believe in conspiracies you read about on the internet? Just wow. 2023 in a nutshell.

 

[Viet Vet]

ND could threaten to start a new conference with Stanford and California. That would get the ACC motivated.

ND will never join any conference other than the BiG. Geography, shared culture, and demographics will dictate their future.

“Rudy” ain’t leaving metropolitan Chicago.

 

[ramses 2.0]

He went to (drumroll please), UNC. As did the governor. They'll do what they can but nothing more.

They won't be doing much of anything since both will be out of office this year & doesn't matter right now cause UNC not looking to anywhere for awhile

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Patrick79]

Its about getting your foot in the door. People can talk about the ACC getting picked apart in 11-12 years (or I guess sooner if a school comes up with hundreds of millions of dollars I suppose). But in the end our best hope from a football standpoint is the ACC anyway and the whole waiting until the ACC GOR is over isn't a great idea because we may not even survive independence for another 11-12 years.

Lets say we get 10 mil. What is that, an extra $5 mil per year? So lets say we throw that toward essentially paying off the exit fee over a 6 year period. Perhaps if Mora is in a real football league we are competing for some of that bowl incentive money to also help offset the exit fee. In the ACC our attendance goes up for football, more ticket revenue. And on and on.

I don't love the idea of begging but we are in a tough spot. Of course if one doesn't give a damn about the football program, it's definitely not worth it I suppose.

Guess this shows how many unknowns there are about where things are going. My analysis on that move to the ACC is:

• It's break-even: Even after the 6 years, we still have to consider interest and other fees with planning and the transition. It's probably not all that lucrative for Uconn to switch.
• Sports is break-even at best, but may actually decline: I don't think BBall will be better - we're already recruiting top notch and fan interest won't be higher in the ACC, even w/ Duke and UNC. I think Uconn fans are going to be more excited to play at MSG and be a part of the BE's trajectory which is heating up. In Fball: BC, Cuse, Pitt, Lville, WVU, Rutgers didn't do better with a switch to the ACC (and B12 and B10), so I don't think you can automatically count on Uconn doing better.
• Foot in the door is = handcuffs: With a GOR, we'll be on equal footing with every ACC team in a decade when the SEC and B10 come to fill their spots. That's not favorable to us since we'll be competing with FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, Duke, etc. In other words, we'd need to bank on the ACC holding together which I just don't think can happen given the distribution of revenue. Of course, this is the x-factor. On the other hand, by remaining where we are, we are essentially the most attractive option for conferences for the next decade--the other teams (in the ACC) are off the market for the most part.

I legit believe that the end game for us is probably a 1) re-organized ACC (the left-overs combined with BE), followed by 2) an expanded B12, 3) staying where we are, 4) the ACC as it looks today or 5) B10 (unlikely but could happen depending on how things shift/develop). I'm not seeing the need to lock ourselves into the ACC for break-even revenue while taking ourselves off the market for better options.

 

[Patman]

Ct taxpayers are financing the ACC via ESPN tax breaks.

so the other option is ESPN moves out of the area and I'm sure they're tempted to move to a better tax state

 

[#1 PA Husky Fan]

so the other option is ESPN moves out of the area and I'm sure they're tempted to move to a better tax state

It’s really hard to move a company’s headquarters.

 

[shizzle787]

I was listening to a Podcast (Patrick Bet-David) and he mentioned that if the next president bans pharma ads on cable TV (not impossible), 75% of cable ad revenue will go away and that will kill sports deals.

 

[BigTenFan]

The really interesting issue is that if four objectors are basically holding out until all or the vast majority of this money accrues to them, does another school change it to vote to no? I mean no amount of money the ACC allocates to FSU is ever going to placate them. Why bother trying?

If those 3 schools get offer then ESPN gives conference 72 million to split- probably unevenly between other ACC schools
Seems like a completely disfunctional way to run an organization. Hypothetically -Syracuse gets 3% while FSU gets 60%

Bad business will create bad outcomes for most of the Universities in that conference.

 

[noeynox]

I was listening to a Podcast (Patrick Bet-David) and he mentioned that if the next president bans pharma ads on cable TV (not impossible), 75% of cable ad revenue will go away and that will kill sports deals.

You certainly can't watch a ball game and not get like 6 ads for conditions you didn't know existed.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I was listening to a Podcast (Patrick Bet-David) and he mentioned that if the next president bans pharma ads on cable TV (not impossible), 75% of cable ad revenue will go away and that will kill sports deals.

Many country ban ads from pharmaceutical companies with USA being the exception. All the doctors are trained and encouraged by the pharma reps to give prescriptions every chance they get. Same drug in the USA can cost 10x what Canadians pay just across the border. Health care is truly for profit while pharmaceutical lobby interests heavily influence government policies.

That's the system we got.

 

[UConnJim]

If those 3 schools get offer then ESPN gives conference 72 million to split- probably unevenly between other ACC schools
Seems like a completely disfunctional way to run an organization. Hypothetically -Syracuse gets 3% while FSU gets 60%

Bad business will create bad outcomes for most of the Universities in that conference.

The travel for non-revenue sports would be terrible for the ACC schools as Cal and Stanford play many sports that would then play in the ACC. Think men's sports: baseball, cross country, golf, rowing, swimming and diving, tennis, track and field, wrestling. women's sports: cross country, field hockey, golf, gymnastics, lacrosse, rowing, soccer, softball, swimming and diving, tennis, track and field, volleyball.

Why would the ACC schools consider adding Stanford and Cal (or SMU), when you would get a small boost in revenues and a big increase in costs? $70 million divided by 14.33 = ~$5 million per school if split equally and other conference payouts like NCAA basketball credits and CFP payouts would be diluted by adding 3 schools. If our 3% for Syracuse is correct, they would get $2.1 million in revenues, then have higher travel costs and diluted NCAA and CFP payouts. Crazy if the add them.

 

[Patman]

It’s really hard to move a company’s headquarters.

Been done before, will happen again.

 

[uconnyankee]

Been done before, will happen again.

Yep.
Case in point, GE went from CT to MA.
Not saying the situations were/are comparable, but companies will leave if they think there is a better location.

Many states would gladly woo ESPN with tax breaks and other incentives.

 

[CL82]

Been done before, will happen again.

True, but ESPN has invested a lot and in the Bristol campus. Leaving there isn't some things that they would do lightly.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Yep.
Case in point, GE went from CT to MA.
Not saying the situations were/are comparable, but companies will leave if they think there is a better location.

Many states would gladly woo ESPN with tax breaks and other incentives.

Then let them go. How much welfare are we supposed to give corporations? How many more free lunches do they need?