Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[storrsroars]

It ain't just FSU, Clemson, Miami and several others are licking their chops right now.

If FSU wins, there will be a dash for the exit among at least 5 ACC schools.

You can almost smell realignment in the air.

The thing is, will all those teams have a landing spot?

One thing I rarely see discussed is whether the SEC would jettison a couple of schools to make room for proven football powerhouses. Vandy for sure, maybe Kentucky. Those two likely join the ACC. If the SEC wants to make more room, maybe Arkansas and Missouri get the boot. They could join the B12 with WVU and Cincy coming over to the ACC.

In the end, maybe enough convolution occurs that once again Rule 1 leaves us standing without a chair.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

The thing is, will all those teams have a landing spot?

One thing I rarely see discussed is whether the SEC would jettison a couple of schools to make room for proven football powerhouses. Vandy for sure, maybe Kentucky. Those two likely join the ACC. If the SEC wants to make more room, maybe Arkansas and Missouri get the boot. They could join the B12 with WVU and Cincy coming over to the ACC.

In the end, maybe enough convolution occurs that once again Rule 1 leaves us standing without a chair.

No one is getting booted in this round of consolidation (maybe in 5-10 years but it seems like it'd be a school opting out rather than getting booted out)... Seems like ACC movement could be 2 to B1G, 2 to SEC, and 4 to Big12. That leaves the ACC remnants needing to backfill a bit to replenish both from a FB and BB standpoint.

 

[Hoophound]

The Big East needs to be ready to absorb the remaining ACC schools. F the ACC. Keep the Big East intact and create a football wing.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

There'd have to be a major sea change for small, private, Catholic, basketball-only schools to want to embrace football playing larger universities. The only way I see it happening is if the ACC imploded/half the schools depart leaving Syra, Pitt, BC, maybe VA Tech homeless AND the current Big East TV negotiations looking so bleak that the small Catholic schools so desperate that they agree to a FB/BB alignment. It'd bring back many of the same problems that fractured the OBE in the first place... For that and other reasons, I think it's a real long shot to ever happen.

 

[Hogoff]

There'd have to be a major sea change for small, private, Catholic, basketball-only schools to want to embrace football playing larger universities. The only way I see it happening is if the ACC imploded/half the schools depart leaving Syra, Pitt, BC, maybe VA Tech homeless AND the current Big East TV negotiations looking so bleak that the small Catholic schools so desperate that they agree to a FB/BB alignment. It'd bring back many of the same problems that fractured the OBE in the first place... For that and other reasons, I think it's a real long shot to ever happen.

It would have to be done with separate TV deals for football and basketball.

 

[Kolumbo]

There'd have to be a major sea change for small, private, Catholic, basketball-only schools to want to embrace football playing larger universities. The only way I see it happening is if the ACC imploded/half the schools depart leaving Syra, Pitt, BC, maybe VA Tech homeless AND the current Big East TV negotiations looking so bleak that the small Catholic schools so desperate that they agree to a FB/BB alignment. It'd bring back many of the same problems that fractured the OBE in the first place... For that and other reasons, I think it's a real long shot to ever happen.

Welp, the PAC 12 imploded and two elite Cali academics joined the ACC. That's a pretty major change of sea. The ACC has been on shaky ground. I could easily envision Duke, Wake, Cuse, BCU, Pitt, Va Tech scrambling to save both football and basketball. Cal, Stanford, sure bring them along. The biggest problem with the OBE was that many programs had seemingly better options. I think the east coast could handle THE premier hoops conference combined with very solid P/G football conference. Perhaps 20 programs total, 10 and 10, so the football side has ample opportunity for OOC games.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Welp, the PAC 12 imploded and two elite Cali academics joined the ACC. That's a pretty major change of sea. The ACC has been on shaky ground. I could easily envision Duke, Wake, Cuse, BCU, Pitt, Va Tech scrambling to save both football and basketball. Cal, Stanford, sure bring them along. The biggest problem with the OBE was that many programs had seemingly better options. I think the east coast could handle THE premier hoops conference combined with very solid P/G football conference. Perhaps 20 programs total, 10 and 10, so the football side has ample opportunity for OOC games.

I don't disagree agree with some of your points, but you skip over the most important factor and assume it'd happen (Catholic schools wanting this to occur). Yes, many OBE schools had better options and left for them (i.e. the ACC) and even though I did include Pitt and VA Tech as potentials for a NNBE (new New Big East), they'd certainly want to be in the Big12 as opposed to a NNBE so it's no slam dunk that they'd even be interested and available. The fracture of the Catholics and the FB playing universities in the OBE is what caused the schools that left to actually start looking elsewhere and needs to be considered.

In my mind, maybe more likely to happen is ACC leftover programs like BC, Syracuse, Wake, Duke (I'll leave out Pitt now because I think they would be Big12 bound because WV would benefit and Pitt can bring FB value to the Big12) agree to be in the Big East for Olympic sports and then the football schools form a separate football playing conference or affiliation of Independent status football schools where they can schedule amongst themselves, add in one or two power conference games, and a local rival or two each season to form FB schedules that are better than we currently do now as a standalone Independent. They could manage their own streaming-dominant media contracts on the football side. Not ideal, but one scenario to try to survive from a FB standpoint and optimize basketball/Olympic sports revenue in the post-consolidation era. There are other scenarios, too, of course but that one came off the top of my head in response to your/other poster's previous thoughts.

 

[ScottVib]

I'm not sure that the rest of the Big East schools care if they're left behind by the biggest football-playing public/state institutions... with the caveat that they care if their dollars are impacted. It's been said in a few threads, but is true, without UCONN there are few actual TV draws in the league. UCONN games & most Villanova ones are desirable (the league hopes Pitino can move St. John's into this tier); otherwise it's a collection of schools desirable-only when they are good (this year that includes Marquette & Creighton, past years Xavier), schools with small followings in big markets, and schools who are filler program, only worth airing when they play a UCONN.

I'd expect the ACC's framework to survive and be the selector of schools to join them. Fine for UCONN but the rest of the Big East will be left out (extraordinarily small chance of Villanova if they suddenly reverse their thinking and finally upgrade (although why they'd do that after rejecting the chance to join a then P6 equivalent immediately a few times over the last two decades I'm not sure)). I have a hard time imagining that a Syracuse or even a BC would want to go back to a construct where their destiny can be set by schools who don't have the same common interests (again); nor do I see a school like Villanova or St. John's wanting to go back to a construct where they are just a follower, rather than a leader in their conference.. because even in that hybrid construct football and the revenue opportunities there will still drive the bus.

In the end even for basketball... UConn, Syracuse, Duke is a stronger basketball core than UConn, Villanova, St. John's and all three of former schools are more aligned on their athletic department goals, than the latter three. If you can get to 10 of 10 votes being football-centric (and not limiting the ways football money can advantage the olympic sports, etc) it's better than getting 10 of 20. Even under the separate construct, I can't see the basketball schools wanting to worry about constant reorganization from schools chasing football dollars and thereby having to leave both the basketball AND football conferences.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I'm not sure that the rest of the Big East schools care if they're left behind by the biggest football-playing public/state institutions... with the caveat that they care if their dollars are impacted. It's been said in a few threads, but is true, without UCONN there are few actual TV draws in the league. UCONN games & most Villanova ones are desirable (the league hopes Pitino can move St. John's into this tier); otherwise it's a collection of schools desirable-only when they are good (this year that includes Marquette & Creighton, past years Xavier), schools with small followings in big markets, and schools who are filler program, only worth airing when they play a UCONN.

I'd expect the ACC's framework to survive and be the selector of schools to join them. Fine for UCONN but the rest of the Big East will be left out (extraordinarily small chance of Villanova if they suddenly reverse their thinking and finally upgrade (although why they'd do that after rejecting the chance to join a then P6 equivalent immediately a few times over the last two decades I'm not sure)). I have a hard time imagining that a Syracuse or even a BC would want to go back to a construct where their destiny can be set by schools who don't have the same common interests (again); nor do I see a school like Villanova or St. John's wanting to go back to a construct where they are just a follower, rather than a leader in their conference.. because even in that hybrid construct football and the revenue opportunities there will still drive the bus.

In the end even for basketball... UConn, Syracuse, Duke is a stronger basketball core than UConn, Villanova, St. John's and all three of former schools are more aligned on their athletic department goals, than the latter three. If you can get to 10 of 10 votes being football-centric (and not limiting the ways football money can advantage the olympic sports, etc) it's better than getting 10 of 20. Even under the separate construct, I can't see the basketball schools wanting to worry about constant reorganization from schools chasing football dollars and thereby having to leave both the basketball AND football conferences.

Said perfectly!!

 

[prankster]

One option, not being discussed, is if we pooled our pennies and bought the remnant ACC.

With new structures in terms of GOR and TV contracts, there is a possibility that several of the folks fleeing the ACC might be persuaded back.

It would be attractive to retain the ACC name and its geographical implications. (Cali schools are less attractive in terms of Olympic sports and related traffic implications)

 

[ZooCougar]

I'm not sure that the rest of the Big East schools care if they're left behind by the biggest football-playing public/state institutions... with the caveat that they care if their dollars are impacted. It's been said in a few threads, but is true, without UCONN there are few actual TV draws in the league. UCONN games & most Villanova ones are desirable (the league hopes Pitino can move St. John's into this tier); otherwise it's a collection of schools desirable-only when they are good (this year that includes Marquette & Creighton, past years Xavier), schools with small followings in big markets, and schools who are filler program, only worth airing when they play a UCONN.

I'd expect the ACC's framework to survive and be the selector of schools to join them. Fine for UCONN but the rest of the Big East will be left out (extraordinarily small chance of Villanova if they suddenly reverse their thinking and finally upgrade (although why they'd do that after rejecting the chance to join a then P6 equivalent immediately a few times over the last two decades I'm not sure)). I have a hard time imagining that a Syracuse or even a BC would want to go back to a construct where their destiny can be set by schools who don't have the same common interests (again); nor do I see a school like Villanova or St. John's wanting to go back to a construct where they are just a follower, rather than a leader in their conference.. because even in that hybrid construct football and the revenue opportunities there will still drive the bus.

In the end even for basketball... UConn, Syracuse, Duke is a stronger basketball core than UConn, Villanova, St. John's and all three of former schools are more aligned on their athletic department goals, than the latter three. If you can get to 10 of 10 votes being football-centric (and not limiting the ways football money can advantage the olympic sports, etc) it's better than getting 10 of 20. Even under the separate construct, I can't see the basketball schools wanting to worry about constant reorganization from schools chasing football dollars and thereby having to leave both the basketball AND football conferences.

And I would rather take a chance and wait for the theoretical ACC leftovers than take a bad Basketball only Big 12 deal and have to play the conference tournament in KC every year. And I live there!

 

[Kolumbo]

Basketball programs after dust "settles," I think, so a lot depends on how big the P2 and Big 12 will go.
11 - Big East
18 - ACC
18 - Big 10
16 - SEC
16 - Big 12

 

[huskymedic]

He’s not necessarily a “key tweeter” but his data is usually sourced and reliable for data points:

 

[ScottVib]

Weird that they choose different windows for football and basketball attendance. In UConns case it costs them higher home attendance from 2009-2012

 

[dayooper]

He’s not necessarily a “key tweeter” but his data is usually sourced and reliable for data points:

While I would love to have you all in the Big10, The ACC seems like a great fit. Even without UNC, they are a basketball centric conference who plays high level football.

 

[Rockford]

I would think UConn would be very much one of the leading candidates-

for: State Flagship, academics, basketball, geography, northeast NYC Market, very good in all other sports including olympics...

 

[Ha Who]

I would think UConn would be very much one of the leading candidates-

for: State Flagship, academics, basketball, geography, northeast NYC Market, very good in all other sports including olympics...

I thought I was done having to post this after the Big 12 debacle

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I would think UConn would be very much one of the leading candidates-

for: State Flagship, academics, basketball, geography, northeast NYC Market, very good in all other sports including olympics...

And yet SMU got the nod

 

[CL82]

I thought I was done having to post this after the Big 12 debacle

Too soon. You need to wait until liberty steals our ACC spot.

 

[gioff2323]

FAU and UNC Charlotte - as they look to replace presence in those states.

 

[UConnJim]

And yet SMU got the nod

I think SMU got the nod for 3 reasons:

1) They were willing to take $0 media.

2) ACCN is still part of the cable bundle in local markets so getting the Dallas market meant more money. LT, you need brands not markets so ST thinking.

3) There was talk of reformulating the Pac 12 and SMU was rumored to be part of it so they took the school that might not be available. The perception is that the ACC can take UConn anytime they want. Again, ST thinking and I think part of the reason some of the ACC schools voted against the member adds.

 

[Chuck]

I think SMU got the nod for 3 reasons:

1) They were willing to take $0 media.

2) ACCN is still part of the cable bundle in local markets so getting the Dallas market meant more money. LT, you need brands not markets so ST thinking.

3) There was talk of reformulating the Pac 12 and SMU was rumored to be part of it so they took the school that might not be available. The perception is that the ACC can take UConn anytime they want. Again, ST thinking and I think part of the reason some of the ACC schools voted against the member adds.

I don't think number 3 flies anymore. By all accounts, we were at the 5 yard line with the B12. If Colorado was the only mover... or Colorado/UA/ASU, but no Utah, it seems like we were next. Closer than SMU was to a destroyed Pac12. If the ACC was just waiting for a time when UConn could be off the board, that was the time. They still passed again (and again when they took Cal/Stamford/SMU).

I really believe that the only way UConn gets an invite to the ACC is if the conference is completely decimated. There would still be a handful of schools left, but not the marquee schools, and we'd be invited along with Memphis, Tulane, USF and other AAC teams we left. We'd still need to consider it, depending on football access and overall basketball quality. But it's not a no-brainer.

 

[billybud]

1...Football...

SMU finished in the Final AP Top 25...to join FSU, Clemson, NC State, and Louisville.

2...Carriage fees...

The ACC Network charges a subscriber fee of $1.30 a month if you are considered “in-conference” compared to 25 cents a month if you are “out-of-conference.” If there is an ACC school in a state the entire state is considered “in-conference”, as confirmed by former ESPN President John Skipper. Cable subscribers in Florida who receive ACC Network pay $1.30 a month regardless of whether they’re in Tallahassee, Miami, Jacksonville, or Orlando. Similarly, cable subscribers in New York City pay $1.30 a month for the ACC Network despite Syracuse being 4 hours away.

3...SMU plays with no ACC media distribution for 9 years...a real sweetener.

 

[jostar1]

I think SMU got the nod for 3 reasons:

1) They were willing to take $0 media.

2) ACCN is still part of the cable bundle in local markets so getting the Dallas market meant more money. LT, you need brands not markets so ST thinking.

3) There was talk of reformulating the Pac 12 and SMU was rumored to be part of it so they took the school that might not be available. The perception is that the ACC can take UConn anytime they want. Again, ST thinking and I think part of the reason some of the ACC schools voted against the member adds.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

ACC here we come!