Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[shizzle787]

A silly parlor question, if the B12 takes us for all sports but football, and the CFB mandates we join a conf, which would we prefer - the MW or MAC? I like the MW schools myself, but I am not a football coach managing travel and high altitude games or having to recruit to such a set up.

MW easily. Likely the #6 league going forward and most of the schools are well-known.

 

[Storrs South]

 

[CL82]

It’s tough to know what to root for from the University of Connecticut perspective. I guess we should be rooting for the Pac 12 to remain intact which in turn will cause the big 12 to look east. That, in turn, might cause the ACC to take us off the table to protect the East Coast. Or should we look for the pack 12 to fold because since we are on the outside looking in change, and chaos, may create opportunities for us down the road.

 

[Ha Who]

It’s tough to know what to root for from the University of Connecticut perspective. I guess we should be rooting for the Pac 12 to remain intact which in turn will cause the big 12 to look east. That, in turn, might cause the ACC to take us off the table to protect the East Coast. Or should we look for the pack 12 to fold because since we are on the outside looking in change, and chaos, may create opportunities for us down the road.

I say we take Rule 1 to the Supreme Court and have it ruled unconstitutional. Of course, as their “brands” fade, FSU and Clemson may challenge us for rule 1 supremacy

 

[Exit 4]

It’s tough to know what to root for from the University of Connecticut perspective. I guess we should be rooting for the Pac 12 to remain intact which in turn will cause the big 12 to look east. That, in turn, might cause the ACC to take us off the table to protect the East Coast. Or should we look for the pack 12 to fold because since we are on the outside looking in change, and chaos, may create opportunities for us down the road.

I'm impatient. I'll take PAC disintegration today with AZ and Colorado the the B12, the remaining holding together for a couple years while they get their ducks in a row to become a discounted left arm of the ACC. ACC & ESPN now have a coast to coast product to back up the SEC product.

The scenario I find the least attractive is one where SMU gets the nod to join the stop gap PAC. Its a stop gap because its hard to see the PAC holding in that scenario after say 2030 or so. Watching SMU and SDST when the geography lottery again will be so annoying.

Big media wants to turn the P5 to P4. They are playing their cards by letting the PAC media slip into the abyss.

As for all the noise with FSU and Clemson....I think its all noise, they have no hand until the B1G or SEC are truly ready and that doesnt seem to be the case today.

And UConn, well- I think we stand out better once the P5 melts to a P4. The P4 world will still have some opportunity to help either team Fox or team ESPN bolster their respective conference media alignments.

 

[CL82]

And UConn, well- I think we stand out better once the P5 melts to a P4. The P4 world will still have some opportunity.

Yeah, it bugs me, but I do think that our best case scenario is being in a “best of the rest” conference that is materially higher than the P5, but significantly lower than the P2.

 

[Exit 4]

Yeah, it bugs me, but I do think that our best case scenario is being in a “best of the rest” conference that is materially higher than the P5, but significantly lower than the P2.

Seems to me the future is a P2A with the B1G and SEC and a P2B with the ACC-PAC and B12. There will be a gap between the P2A and P2B...the gap we see today and there is little reason to think it will narrow much in the decades to come.

 

[Storrs South]

 

[Ldandy]

Yeah, it bugs me, but I do think that our best case scenario is being in a “best of the rest” conference that is materially higher than the P5, but significantly lower than the P2.

None of this is fair so I get your annoyance as a fan. That said a best of the rest ACC Conference with some G5 Additions would be really good for football and at worst a push for basketball. If this conference could negotiate a 25+Mil per year deal from ESPN, Uconn would have more than tripled its current payouts.

Potential Future ACC- BC, Uconn, Cuse, Pitt, VPI, Ville, Duke, NCSU, WFU, GT, Miami, USF.

This conference lineup assumes Only UNC/UVA and Clemson/FSU leave while The Big 12 stays put. Realistically The B1G and SEC could press for more teams and/or The Big 12 could look to build out its Eastern Flank if schools like Pitt, Ville, NSCU, and Miami are sitting out there.

I could see a scenario where Duke, Cuse, BC and WFU are all left without a home. These schools could try to join The Big East and go independent with a scheduling agreement. However, they would need to negotiate their own football deals. Alternatively they could form a regional conference pulling in a bunch of G5 Schools that might not command great money but could allow the schools to remain on a linear network with a decent deal. I could see something like this:

BC, Umass, Uconn, Cuse, Temple, Navy, ODU, Duke, WFU, ECU, Memphis, USF. Primarily East Coast with enough clout to garner bowl ties and NCAA Bids. Some of these teams could be swapped out for others, but this feels like something that could be real and potentially better if a few additional ACC Schools get left behind.

 

[CL82]

If this conference could negotiate a 25+Mil per year deal from ESPN, Uconn would have more than tripled its current payouts

Assuming that hypothetical payout, figure is correct, we would be at no more than a third of what the P2 were getting. That would put us at a significant disadvantage for paying and retaining top coaching talent and keeping up in a facilities shooting war. Not the best place in the world to be, but certainly better than where we are now.

That number is “significantly less than the P2, but materially more than the best G5.” I don’t see a path for us to do better than that.

 

[Luna]

I just don’t see anything happening with the acc for a while..or the big 12 …uconn needs a good big east media deal and a good football independent deal first… then when we don’t need them.. thats when they will come calling… unless the conferences don’t like that the big east is financially stable and too successful.. then they will try to break it up

 

[buddy]

I only hope that AD Dave is being proactive during this apparent time of CR. I would hate to see UConn lose an opportunity because the powers that be decided to sit by the phone and wait for a call, rather than lobby like Louisville did when the ACC chose them.

 

[baggerbob]

I only hope that AD Dave is being proactive during this apparent time of CR. I would hate to see UConn lose an opportunity because the powers that be decided to sit by the phone and wait for a call, rather than lobby like Louisville did when the ACC chose them.

The ACC is dead man walking, ESPN. destroyed the conference, just as they did the Big East.
A bad Commissioner, Swofford sold out the conference to protect his sons job.
The Big 12 will be the 3rd conference to survive behind the Big 10 and SEC.
When the GOR is close to the end.
Probably 6 of the ACC schools will join the SEC and Big 10.
Notre Dame will stay independent and probably join the Big East for sports.

 

[Ldandy]

Assuming that hypothetical payout, figure is correct, we would be at no more than a third of what the P2 were getting. That would put us at a significant disadvantage for paying and retaining top coaching talent and keeping up in a facilities shooting war. Not the best place in the world to be, but certainly better than where we are now.

That number is “significantly less than the P2, but materially more than the best G5.” I don’t see a path for us to do better than that.

I'm trying to spin the best outcome that doesn't include giving up football. Independence for anyone not named ND is unrealistic long term. At least if something like this were to happen, you would have a consistent schedule with relevant opponents on it for fans in Connecticut. If the money is considerably better than now it would have to be a win.

 

[CL82]

I'm trying to spin the best outcome that doesn't include giving up football. Independence for anyone not named ND is unrealistic long term. At least if something like this were to happen, you would have a consistent schedule with relevant opponents on it for fans in Connecticut. If the money is considerably better than now it would have to be a win.

Agreed. It’s just a win that likely leaves us permanently mired in the under class of big boy college athletics. That isn’t the worst outcome and I don’t really see a path to a better one.

 

[Fishy]

I'm trying to spin the best outcome that doesn't include giving up football. Independence for anyone not named ND is unrealistic long term. At least if something like this were to happen, you would have a consistent schedule with relevant opponents on it for fans in Connecticut. If the money is considerably better than now it would have to be a win.

Odds on UConn ever being invited to a P2 conference - 0%. If the schmuck who originally laid out the DMA markets had looped Hartford instead of New Brunswick into the NYC market, it would be different, but he didn’t so that is the end of that game.

Odds on the ACC/Big 12 deciding that they need to add teams and UConn get a call - >2%. When the Big 12 fell apart, the ACC could have approached better football schools than us, but didn’t…kinda makes me think that they are at their number right now.

Odds on the PAC12 falling apart, mayhem ensuing and somehow the ACC gets bigger without UConn - >10%

Odds on the Pac12 falling apart, mayhem ensuing and somehow the Big 12 gets bigger without UConn - 50%

Odds on a ton of weird crap happening and we end up on in the exact same spot - almost certain.

Generally, I think we are where we are for the next ten years.

 

[Storrs South]

Odds on UConn ever being invited to a P2 conference - 0%. If the schmuck who originally laid out the DMA markets had looped Hartford instead of New Brunswick into the NYC market, it would be different, but he didn’t so that is the end of that game.

Odds on the ACC/Big 12 deciding that they need to add teams and UConn get a call - >2%. When the Big 12 fell apart, the ACC could have approached better football schools than us, but didn’t…kinda makes me think that they are at their number right now.

Odds on the PAC12 falling apart, mayhem ensuing and somehow the ACC gets bigger without UConn - >10%

Odds on the Pac12 falling apart, mayhem ensuing and somehow the Big 12 gets bigger without UConn - 50%

Odds on a ton of weird crap happening and we end up on in the exact same spot - almost certain.

Generally, I think we are where we are for the next ten years.

I'd tend to agree. The difference is with UConn having great success on multiple fronts in the Big East and Independent plus issues that have plagued ACC the last 3 years it's not as big a deal minus the financial aspect which the school seems to be dealing with as best it can.

When UConn was in the later Big East late 2010s and then AAC it was a very different feeling and one of desperation. I don't think the AD nor fanbase feels that way today.

 

[Drew]

I'd tend to agree. The difference is with UConn having great success on multiple fronts in the Big East and Independent plus issues that have plagued ACC the last 3 years it's not as big a deal minus the financial aspect which the school seems to be dealing with as best it can.

When UConn was in the later Big East late 2010s and then AAC it was a very different feeling and one of desperation. I don't think the AD nor fanbase feels that way today.

I don’t disagree but I almost attribute it more to “acceptance” rather than a lack of want to. It’s almost like “well we tried and now we’re just fine with this over the alternative”.

Fans do not care about the revenue gap. They want to turn on their team on TV and watch them play against other good teams (in any sport). The next BE TV deal is going to be fascinating- if it winds up being 80%+ streaming on Apple or something I think a lot of the shine/acceptance that we are seeing today will go away and people will start to embrace the urgency around this again.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I don’t disagree but I almost attribute it more to “acceptance” rather than a lack of want to. It’s almost like “well we tried and now we’re just fine with this over the alternative”.

Fans do not care about the revenue gap. They want to turn on their team on TV and watch them play against other good teams (in any sport). The next BE TV deal is going to be fascinating- if it winds up being 80%+ streaming on Apple or something I think a lot of the shine/acceptance that we are seeing today will go away and people will start to embrace the urgency around this again.

I don't think the BE will be relegated to streaming - basketball is different than football as it plays games all week long as opposed to predominantly Saturdays-only. Linear TV needs live sports content, so I don't think we have to worry about this in at least the next round of the TV contract.

 

[Drew]

I don't think the BE will be relegated to streaming - basketball is different than football as it plays games all week long as opposed to predominantly Saturdays-only. Linear TV needs live sports content, so I don't think we have to worry about this in at least the next round of the TV contract.

There was a clip from Marchand & Ourand recently where they talked about where the BE would be if their rights were up for renewal today and the feedback was that they’d be “in a very similar situation to the PAC12 as a ”nice to have” but not a “need to have””.

Obviously just one (very informed) person’s opinion but I would tend to agree with that. Then you look around and every other league will have a streaming component for basketball starting next year… no chance there isn’t streaming on the BE deal IMO. Especially if they don’t like the FOX renewal offer. Even the B1G is putting 45 hoops games on Peacock starting next year.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

There was a clip from Marchand & Ourand recently where they talked about where the BE would be if their rights were up for renewal today and the feedback was that they’d be “in a very similar situation to the PAC12 as a ”nice to have” but not a “need to have””.

Obviously just one (very informed) person’s opinion but I would tend to agree with that. Then you look around and every other league will have a streaming component for basketball starting next year… no chance there isn’t streaming on the BE deal IMO. Especially if they don’t like the FOX renewal offer. Even the B1G is putting 45 hoops games on Peacock starting next year.

I hear you but I think there are things that nicely position the BE...

1. Big markets - Southern New England, NY, NJ, Philly, DC/VA/MD, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Omaha.

2. On-court success. Villanova, UConn natty's. BE conference KenPom, etc rankings have had them in the top 3 or 4 conferences annually for the long term and the short term. The BE has a track record of better on court performance and eyeballs than PAC basketball.

3. Fan bases that care and legacy BE fans still have cable at rates higher than other fanbases. Ratings are solid and growing. As an example, passionate "cabled" fanbases have better positioned the Big12 over the PAC because TV executives know better.

4. The BE tourney as an entity itself. Most unbiased observers put it as the top or second best tourney in all the land.

5. Fox is likely to partner with ESPN+ to stream their content on the ESPN app and that will snare additional eyeballs for everyone and drive up revenues.

Streaming will always be a part of things, but to say BE basketball is going to be on a similar plane to the PAC is likely just lazy thinking at this time. It is apples and oranges simply due to people disregarding the BE because we don't have football.

 

[Drew]

I hear you but I think there are things that nicely position the BE...

1. Big markets - Southern New England, NY, NJ, Philly, DC/VA/MD, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Omaha.

2. On-court success. Villanova, UConn natty's. BE conference KenPom, etc rankings have had them in the top 3 or 4 conferences annually for the long term and the short term. The BE has a track record of better on court performance and eyeballs than PAC basketball.

3. Fan bases that care and legacy BE fans still have cable at rates higher than other fanbases. Ratings are solid and growing. As an example, passionate "cabled" fanbases have better positioned the Big12 over the PAC because TV executives know better.

4. The BE tourney as an entity itself. Most unbiased observers put it as the top or second best tourney in all the land.

5. Fox is likely to partner with ESPN+ to stream their content on the ESPN app and that will snare additional eyeballs for everyone and drive up revenues.

Streaming will always be a part of things, but to say BE basketball is going to be on a similar plane to the PAC is likely just lazy thinking at this time. It is apples and oranges simply due to people disregarding the BE because we don't have football.

I really appreciate the back and forth but a few things here…

1. Are you really claiming these markets as “Big East”? Philly, DMV, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Omaha are dominated by Big Ten fans. I’d even argue NYC metro has more B1G fans than BE fans. Xavier is like the 5th most popular school in Cincinnati behind Ohio State, Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Louisville. We’re calling that a Big East market?

2. On court success doesn’t necessarily directly translate to better viewership. The BE does have a better on court success track record than the PAC, but I’d appreciate data showing that the BE has markedly better viewership than they do. And it’s not even close when comparing to the B1G.

3. I’d need to see data on this claim… the footprint is extremely similar to the B1G who has a large hoops streaming component as referenced. Not sure what this point is supposed to make.

4. The BE tournament was a can’t miss event. As someone that lives outside of the NYC metro are in Charlotte, I can tell you approximately 0 people care about it here. Last year’s BE tournament final was the 8th highest rated conference tournament final, on par with the A10 final ratings and behind the B1G, SEC, ACC, B12, MWC, AAC, P12 finals:

Big Ten an exception as conference title games rebound

Outside of the Big Ten, ratings for the major college basketball conference title games rebounded significantly during championship week.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

5. I’m not sure what this point is trying to make. Yes ESPN is looking at a platform that would allow you to click into a Peacock (or similar streaming service) game from their device. What does that have to do with whether the BE will be avoiding streaming in their next deal?

The PAC conference tournament final outrated the BE tournament final in 2019, 2021, 2022. I can’t easily find data for before that but that’s not a great trend. Villanova’s two NCAA Tournament titles are the lowest rated cable tv finals in the sport’s history. 1 out of 30 (!!) of the top watched games in 2018, 2019, 2021 was a Big East game. I just don’t see any way the data bears the Big East getting a full or mostly linear TV deal, especially if they’re looking for $7M+ in TV money

Long story short, if the B1G- which is easily the most widely watched league in college hoops- has 45 games on Peacock- expect a bunch of BE games going on a streaming service as well.

 

[Drew]

This is a pretty good read showing that the BE as a TV property is basically the MLS. Which just signed a 10 year all in deal with Apple (roughly 30 games per year sub-licensed to linear on FOX):

What are Big East TV Rights worth?

With TV rights values exploding, what might a conference like the Big East be worth?

painttouches.com

@CTFAN4LIFE

 

[UConnJim]

This is a pretty good read showing that the BE as a TV property is basically the MLS. Which just signed a 10 year all in deal with Apple (roughly 30 games per year sub-licensed to linear on FOX):

What are Big East TV Rights worth?

With TV rights values exploding, what might a conference like the Big East be worth?

painttouches.com

@CTFAN4LIFE

The article comes to the conclusion that the rights could worth ~$7 million, but there are some flaws in his logic. For example, he compares Big 10 TV ratings vs. Big East ratings TV ratings on FS1. This year, FS1 is broadcasting 30 Big 10 games and broadcasting >100 Big East games so the quality of the Big 10 matchups on FS1 were higher than the quality the entirety of Big East games. Of course the Big 10 games on FS1 were higher rated than the Big East games. If the Big East could cherry pick games for FS1, the ratings would be higher, but with fewer games.

Another point that is not addressed is that the inventory of Big East games on FOX channels is huge (>120 games) so if FOX did not renew the Big East contract, they would have a lot of time slots that need to be filled. Going forward, FOX/FS1 will broadcast about 45 Big 10 games (about the same as currently, lose 22 Pac 12 games, and gain a yet to be determined number of Big 12 games. The Big East TV package is the majority of men's college basketball games shown on FOX/FS1. AND, the only conference tournament FOX/FS1 will have in the future is the Big East if they renew as ESPN has the Big 12, ACC, and SEC championships and CBS has the Big 10 championship. (Will there be a Pac 12?)

The comparison to the Pac 12 contract negotiations is not valid because the biggest problem for the Pac 12 contract is football time slots and the value of late night football time slots. There are really no 3 PM (ET) or 7 PM (ET) time slots available for the Pac 12 and they are not going to play games at 9 AM West Coast time. Later time slots are available, but they are not as valuable.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I really appreciate the back and forth but a few things here…

1. Are you really claiming these markets as “Big East”? Philly, DMV, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Omaha are dominated by Big Ten fans. I’d even argue NYC metro has more B1G fans than BE fans. Xavier is like the 5th most popular school in Cincinnati behind Ohio State, Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Louisville. We’re calling that a Big East market?

2. On court success doesn’t necessarily directly translate to better viewership. The BE does have a better on court success track record than the PAC, but I’d appreciate data showing that the BE has markedly better viewership than they do. And it’s not even close when comparing to the B1G.

3. I’d need to see data on this claim… the footprint is extremely similar to the B1G who has a large hoops streaming component as referenced. Not sure what this point is supposed to make.

4. The BE tournament was a can’t miss event. As someone that lives outside of the NYC metro are in Charlotte, I can tell you approximately 0 people care about it here. Last year’s BE tournament final was the 8th highest rated conference tournament final, on par with the A10 final ratings and behind the B1G, SEC, ACC, B12, MWC, AAC, P12 finals:

Big Ten an exception as conference title games rebound

Outside of the Big Ten, ratings for the major college basketball conference title games rebounded significantly during championship week.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

5. I’m not sure what this point is trying to make. Yes ESPN is looking at a platform that would allow you to click into a Peacock (or similar streaming service) game from their device. What does that have to do with whether the BE will be avoiding streaming in their next deal?

The PAC conference tournament final outrated the BE tournament final in 2019, 2021, 2022. I can’t easily find data for before that but that’s not a great trend. Villanova’s two NCAA Tournament titles are the lowest rated cable tv finals in the sport’s history. 1 out of 30 (!!) of the top watched games in 2018, 2019, 2021 was a Big East game. I just don’t see any way the data bears the Big East getting a full or mostly linear TV deal, especially if they’re looking for $7M+ in TV money

Long story short, if the B1G- which is easily the most widely watched league in college hoops- has 45 games on Peacock- expect a bunch of BE games going on a streaming service as well.

1. I never claimed the markets to be "Big East" - you went there. My point is that BE schools are in big/important markets with influential media outlets, etc and they garner front page status in newspapers, online newsfeeds, etc. Of course, all of these markets are shared. But, the point is that the BE is well served by their markets.

2. You're creeping again by comparing BE viewership to the B1G (no one compares to the B1G). Back to my point - yes the data shows like-for-like that the BE on FS1 has outperformed the PAC on FS1.

3. BE FS1 (and Fox) numbers improved every year since 2014 and since UConn rejoining, the increase has jumped up even further.

4. Your Charlotte argument is again contrived. Your data is for one game - do you have data for the entire tournament? I wonder if the UConn-Nova semifinal had better ratings than the Creighton-Nova final?

5. I'm not saying the BE will try to avoid streaming - again stop putting words in my mouth. Fox putting games on ESPN+ is a form of streaming but it is a hybrid because the game would also be on FS1/Fox. I'm saying the BE will not live or die by streaming but it seems the PAC might.