Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[Chin Diesel]

Okay. But that assumes that East Coast and West Coast teams never play each other.

Well, you have two divisions and play almost all your games within your division and then they meet for a conference championship game.

 

[billybud]

There is an FSU board "insider"who agrees with you dayooper...and folks on the board listen to him.

He posted in 2017 about the move to two leagues and had the USC-UCLA call to the B1G a year before there was a whisper,

And he still thinks the ACC will blow up but that it will be messy.

 

[dayooper]

I don't know either but it's almost like being in the middle of the country gives leftover Pac12 teams a spot to fly east and leftover ACC teams a spot to fly west and keeps either ACC or Pac12 teams from having to fly all the way across the country.
You know what? Just make the Big12 leftovers, Pac12 leftovers and ACC leftovers play all their games in the DFW area every weekend. Have double headers, triple headers, whatever. Make the travel predictable and easy direct flights. Smaller sports can use whatever venues are in that metro area.

It’s not an infatuation, it’s the process in which things must happen. The ACC would be impossible if they dissolved the conference to bypass the GOR while if the Big10 were to take 3-4 more teams, the PAC would lose a total of 5-6 of its 12 teams. That leaves the Big12 with 12 teams (assuming no Big12 teams get called up) with their ~$80 million exit fee. Take the leftover ACC and PAC schools (you can leave off WSU one Oregon State, if you want) and you have, imo, the cleanest option. You would still have room for teams like Memphis and UConn at the table.

Honestly, the least deserving of the P5 is the Big12. They are the last conference I want to succeed. Just having the WVU Twitterati going on and on about BS is enough for me. They also have the least deserving schools that have been living off of Texas and Oklahoma since the first round of expansion hit in 2010. The circumstances of their contract and the lack of desirable schools keeps them together. I would love to see The PAC make it even if it’s for the fact that a Yooper, Dr Glenn Seaborg became the Pres of Cal Berkeley (had the element Seaborgium named after him) and helped get the PAC off of its feet.

 

[dayooper]

Well, you have two divisions and play almost all your games within your division and then they meet for a conference championship game.

This. With the far reaching conferences, you schedule 1 long road trips to play some of the distant schools and you meet in the conference championships. Sports like track, wrestling, gymnastics or any individual sports you can hold tournaments where multiple schools meet. Team sports a a bit tougher, but you don’t have to play everybody if you make the tournament winner the champ.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The only way that I can see to make everything work is that the ACC/ESPN contract contains an out provision for ESPN to void the conference contract and thus the GOR.

Nobody has seen a copy of the ACC/ESPN contract since it is not subject to FOIA.

I find it interesting that the school presidents were not privy to a billion dollar contract. FSU, under FOIA demands, states that they never saw it and that the conference office negotiated it and signed it.

I'm pretty sure that the rights were granted to the conference, not ESPN. The ACC should still be able to retain the rights of each member even if something happens with the ESPN contract.

While it is highly unlikely that any member school would not have seen the contract (many likely participated in the negotiations) it is plausible that as the rights were granted to the conference, it was the conference, not the school who negotiated the contract.

It also is likely that plausible deniability was among what those involved intended while undertaking this process.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

If the Irish paid the Exit fee...the ACC would still own all of the media rights other than football...and could/would ask for massive damages in addition.

Irish will remain independent.

(although some of the ACC football schools are salivating at the prospect of Notre Dame breaking the shackles).

But it is the Hotel California.

The GOR/media rights won't be the reason ND stays in the ACC because in just a few years of BIG media revenue they will have paid off the ACC GOR.

 

[Rufus]

I think the current 10 members of the PAC-12 are better off without the Big 12. The PAC is more prestigious, even after losing USC and UCLA. However, the B1G may continue to raid the PAC 12 and the PAC cannot afford to lose any more schools. The B1G holds the PACs life in its hands.

We’ve seen estimates on how much revenue Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Washington sports can generate - all less than the expected average payout for the next B1G contract. However, what we have not seen are estimates on how much money can be gained from academic research consortiums and the like. Research money trumps athletic money.

 

[billybud]

I'm pretty sure that the rights were granted to the conference, not ESPN. The ACC should still be able to retain the rights of each member even if something happens with the ESPN contract.

While it is highly unlikely that any member school would not have seen the contract (many likely participated in the negotiations) it is plausible that as the rights were granted to the conference, it was the conference, not the school who negotiated the contract.

It also is likely that plausible deniability was among what those involved intended while undertaking this process.

The GOR and the ESPN contract are linked....

Check out #1 Grant of Rights

The agreement is to give exclusive rights to the conference "as necessary to perform the contractual obligations of the Conference expressly set forth in the ESPN agreement"...

And we do not know what that agreement says.....and multiple lawyers have tried FOIA's at different programs to obtain it to no avail.

https://wwwcache.wralsportsfan.com/asset/colleges/ncsu/2022/07/05/20361238/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1-DMID1-5vgd1w2if.pdf

 

[dayooper]

I think the current 10 members of the PAC-12 are better off without the Big 12. The PAC is more prestigious, even after losing USC and UCLA. However, the B1G may continue to raid the PAC 12 and the PAC cannot afford to lose any more schools. The B1G holds the PACs life in its hands.

We’ve seen estimates on how much revenue Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Washington sports can generate - all less than the expected average payout for the next B1G contract. However, what we have not seen are estimates on how much money can be gained from academic research consortiums and the like. Research money trumps athletic money.

For the Big10, yes. Having Stanford and, to a lesser effect, Cal in the Big10 Consortium (whatever it’s called) would make the Big10 presidents very happy. If the end game is 24, Washington, Oregon and Stanford are locks while Cal having a great chance. If the end game is 20, it’s less of a sure thing with Stanford being the leader. This is just my opinion, of course.

 

[businesslawyer]

If the Irish paid the Exit fee...the ACC would still own all of the media rights other than football...and could/would ask for massive damages in addition.

Irish will remain independent.

(although some of the ACC football schools are salivating at the prospect of Notre Dame breaking the shackles).

But it is the Hotel California.

You are (probably on purpose) vastly overstating the ACC’s position. ND can leave it’s media rights FOR HOOPS with the ACC and neither ND nor the Big Ten would give a rat’s behind. The ACC doesn’t have a GOR for Notre Dame football, which is the only right that is material in the context of a leave or stay decision.

 

[CL82]

You are (probably on purpose) vastly overstating the ACC’s position. ND can leave it’s media rights FOR HOOPS with the ACC and neither ND nor the Big Ten would give a rat’s behind. The ACC doesn’t have a GOR for Notre Dame football, which is the only right that is material in the context of a leave or stay decision.

What this would look like is kind of interesting. The GOR grants rights but doesn’t lock you into a series of opponents, so, theoretically you would have the ACC and ESPN having the broadcast rights for Big Ten teams who are playing away games at Notre Dame. Do they broadcast them? Would existing ACC teams become angry or feel slighted if their games are not being broadcast but a member of another conference games are? If ESPN fails to broadcast them, is that a breach of duty? Is it bad faith? Perhaps frustration of purpose?

 

[dayooper]

What this would look like is kind of interesting. The GOR grants rights but doesn’t lock you into a series of opponents, so, theoretically you would have the ACC and ESPN having the broadcast rights for Big Ten teams who are playing away games at Notre Dame. Do they broadcast them? Would existing ACC teams become angry or feel slighted if their games are not being broadcast but a member of another conference games are? If ESPN fails to broadcast them, is that a breach of duty? Is it bad faith? Perhaps frustration of purpose?

I can see the Big10 scheduling Rutgers, NW, PSU, Minnesota and Nebraska at ND every year. That would leave only 3 mid or high tier Big10 games at ND.

I’m assuming you are talking about BBall and not football.

 

[billybud]

You are (probably on purpose) vastly overstating the ACC’s position. ND can leave it’s media rights FOR HOOPS with the ACC and neither ND nor the Big Ten would give a rat’s behind. The ACC doesn’t have a GOR for Notre Dame football, which is the only right that is material in the context of a leave or stay decision.

And you are either very misinformed or willfully ignoring my point which has been...forget the $100 million Exit Fee...forget the GOR tieing up all other sports...

But do not discount the GOR ancillary contract signed by the Irish guaranteeing that they would join the ACC in football iof they join any conferenece. It is a contract executed so that the ACC would allow them to participate in the conference as a partial member.

The ACC can and would litigate what the lost value of that joining the ACC in football would be worth over 10 years...

 

[billybud]

From the Irish site...Slap the Sign

So, why wouldn’t that happen? Why wouldn’t the conferences try to squeeze the Irish into a conference, as Notre Dame is one of the few programs that can actually raise the value of a conference?

It all goes back to the ACC deal that Notre Dame has. The deal states that Notre Dame competes in the ACC for most of their sports, like basketball and baseball, while football gets to remain independent. The caveat is that they have to play five ACC teams annually in football. This deal goes through 2036, and during that time period, the only conference Notre Dame can join is the ACC.

 

[billybud]

And why would the ACC fight the inevitable?

Because...FSU, Clemson, Miami would argue that the GOR that they signed was was under a promised and contracted set of circumstances that are now changed...thus mitigating circumstances allowing them to bolt.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

From the Irish site...Slap the Sign

So, why wouldn’t that happen? Why wouldn’t the conferences try to squeeze the Irish into a conference, as Notre Dame is one of the few programs that can actually raise the value of a conference?

It all goes back to the ACC deal that Notre Dame has. The deal states that Notre Dame competes in the ACC for most of their sports, like basketball and baseball, while football gets to remain independent. The caveat is that they have to play five ACC teams annually in football. This deal goes through 2036, and during that time period, the only conference Notre Dame can join is the ACC.

So, let's play the worst case scenario as best we outsiders can.... let's say the Irish would pay an approximate $50m exit fee and then ~ $10m per years left until 2036 for their non-football GOR? Let's say they leave in 2024 - that'd be 12 years left for a total of $120m plus the $50m exit fee for a worst case total of $170. Via settlement talks, the Irish get it down to $125m (at a 25% reduction). If the Irish can go from their current NBC dollars to a BIG annual payout of around $50m (that's conservative given what the BIG is adding in USC/UCLA and for the fact that Notre Dame is about as additive a program as there is, and that the BIG is likely to add additional additive programs either or both from the Pac and ACC in the coming years) they can hit the break even in a handful of years and the sooner they leave the quicker they reach payback. Kind of a no brainer in terms of dollars, but as we all know the Irish don't make every decision based on dollars alone.

 

[BigTenFan]

I can see the Big10 scheduling Rutgers, NW, PSU, Minnesota and Nebraska at ND every year. That would leave only 3 mid or high tier Big10 games at ND.

I’m assuming you are talking about BBall and not football.

ND already has a B1G10 tradition of playing Purdue, Michigan, Northwestern and MSU- they are all less than 3 hour drive from South Bend

 

[Billy Jack]

Here’s why the Big XII makes no sense as the leftovers’ conference. Below is a list of teams currently outside the B1G and SEC in order of value, from the si.com list posted recently on this site. I don’t want to bicker about whether the list is accurate because regardless of adjustments to it, the trends will stay the same.

Only Notre Dame, Washington, Clemson, Stanford, and Florida State are in the room 20. All the rest are ranked between 21-40. Cross Notre Dame off the list because they will not be in a leftovers’ conference. Look at the rest:

Notre Dame
Washington
Clemson
Stanford
Florida State
North Carolina
Oregon
Oklahoma a State
Miami
Iowa State
North Carolina State
Arizona State
Virginia
Virginia Tech
TCU
BYU

Only OK State, Iowa State, and TCU are in Big XII territory. The rest are either east of the Mississippi or west of the Rockies. If someone wanted wanted to put together a conference of leftovers with the most value, it would be a bi-coastal conference with East and West divisions. It would not be a conference base around a bunch of schools in the middle of the country.

 

[businesslawyer]

And you are either very misinformed or willfully ignoring my point which has been...forget the $100 million Exit Fee...forget the GOR tieing up all other sports...

But do not discount the GOR ancillary contract signed by the Irish guaranteeing that they would join the ACC in football iof they join any conferenece. It is a contract executed so that the ACC would allow them to participate in the conference as a partial member.

The ACC can and would litigate what the lost value of that joining the ACC in football would be worth over 10 years...

The exit fee is what it is. Even if they are paying the same exit fee that a football playing member would pay, $100 large is just not going to stop a generational (if not permanent) move. The GOR might stop a team that had pledged its media rights for football. Oh, just to take one example, FSU. But Notre Dame could shut down all its sports but footballl, much less just have them shut off from television, and if they wanted to go to the Big Ten to play football it wouldn't deter them.

Everyone else pledged football media rights. Those schools going this many years early is a horse of a totally different color. As for the agreement not to join anywhere else, how do you show damages? ND just says we never would have joined the ACC, we just would have stayed independent (which is almost certainly true), and then what are your damages? Three lost games a year where ND would be your opponent? Trivial, and they could still give you those games as OOC games if they want to.

I think you are being sincere here, and you've never thought of this before. I'm so sorry.

 

[billybud]

Damages..? I see that you are missing the point...If Notre Dame stays independent, they meet their contractual obligation. If they join the B1G they breach. And there are effects of that breach.

The damage to the ACC is...the value of lost revenue of Notre Dame not joining the ACC, if they joined a conference, as contracted. The value that they bring the B1G is a place to start. That value that they would bring to a conference...they have contractually pledged that value through 2036.

It isn't the handful of games currently contracted yearly....it is the vast value that Notre Dame brings to a conference as a football member....upgraded ESPN ACC media contracts that float all boats...and a decade of that.

I believe that Notre Dame will stay independent and seek big bucks from NBC for their 7 home games...75 million is being booted about.

 

[Bobol]

Here’s why the Big XII makes no sense as the leftovers’ conference. Below is a list of teams currently outside the B1G and SEC in order of value, from the si.com list posted recently on this site. I don’t want to bicker about whether the list is accurate because regardless of adjustments to it, the trends will stay the same.

Only Notre Dame, Washington, Clemson, Stanford, and Florida State are in the room 20. All the rest are ranked between 21-40. Cross Notre Dame off the list because they will not be in a leftovers’ conference. Look at the rest:

Notre Dame
Washington
Clemson
Stanford
Florida State
North Carolina
Oregon
Oklahoma a State
Miami
Iowa State
North Carolina State
Arizona State
Virginia
Virginia Tech
TCU
BYU

Only OK State, Iowa State, and TCU are in Big XII territory. The rest are either east of the Mississippi or west of the Rockies. If someone wanted wanted to put together a conference of leftovers with the most value, it would be a bi-coastal conference with East and West divisions. It would not be a conference base around a bunch of schools in the middle of the country.

Where is the University of Syracuse on the list ?

it appears that Syracuse University (which I always thought worked to UConn in SU’s lame attempt to claim to be “NY’s Team”) is not in the best position in this reshuffle.

 

[billybud]

One of the difficulties in deciphering is that the public does not have copies of...

1...the current ACC GOR...only the 2013 GOR is in the public
2...the ESPN contract which is linked to the GOR
3...the ancillary contract binding Notre Dame to join the ACC, if they fully join a conference before 2036

All have been reported...but nobody has a copy.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

All have been reported...but nobody has a copy.

Very true Billy but you must realize that this includes you.

 

[businesslawyer]

Damages..? I see that you are missing the point...If Notre Dame stays independent, they meet their contractual obligation. If they join the B1G they breach. And there are effects of that breach.

The damage to the ACC is...the value of lost revenue of Notre Dame not joining the ACC, if they joined a conference, as contracted. The value that they bring the B1G is a place to start. That value that they would bring to a conference...they have contractually pledged that value through 2036.

It isn't the handful of games currently contracted yearly....it is the vast value that Notre Dame brings to a conference as a football member....upgraded ESPN ACC media contracts that float all boats...and a decade of that.

I believe that Notre Dame will stay independent and seek big bucks from NBC for their 7 home games...75 million is being booted about.

No. They never promised to join the ACC. Not joining the ACC isn’t the breach. The breach is joining the Big Ten versus staying football independent.

 

[dayooper]

One of the difficulties in deciphering is that the public does not have copies of...

1...the current ACC GOR...only the 2013 GOR is in the public
2...the ESPN contract which is linked to the GOR
3...the ancillary contract binding Notre Dame to join the ACC, if they fully join a conference before 2036

All have been reported...but nobody has a copy.

No one knows what the process to how the ACC can be disbanded either. All we have for ND is the work of the former ACC commish who waived ND claiming the only conference ND can join is the ACC. Reminds me of Neville Chamberlain waving Hitlers word claiming we have “Peace in our time.”