John Silver's Saturday Thoughts

[whaler11]

Holy crap. The buy out is a rounding error at legitimate football program. There is no way the buy out drives the decision.

 

[uconNYC]

How about loss in donations, sponsorship, brand value, campus morale, etc. ? Even if we lose money by firing PP- it's not going to be millions. It will be a minimal loss.

 

[whaler11]

Dan you are right - Maryland and Michigan will prop up the 2013 attendance. Without those games would be probably a 30k average. But they will sell a ton of season tickets off the back of Michigan.

 

[Dann]

Too much hyperbole. We couldn't have had 45k for Temple because they don't fit. Temple's attendance was not out of the ordinary for the rest of the numbers for the year, so you can't say it was just "homecoming".

I know that you hate PP and GDL. Believe me, I know!!! But c'mon now...

im saying that we could have got 45k for that type of weekend if we had the balls to and had a good team. band on the field, bleachers in the open area, more walking tix. thats stuff. that weekend uconn is trying to make big time now and it may work but we had fball this year and we still got 37k is my point. if homecoming and all that jazz was a different week, how many do u think show up? i saw a ton of tweets all that week from younger ppl saying "blah blah this or that, cant wait to get hammered at the rent and blha blah this or that". ppl showed up for the reunion party, not fball. it was a fluke attendance. if we were good(aka p and d gone), u could put up bleachers and all that good idea stuff for md and michiagn next year and get 40-45k imho. not now tho unless something changes quick and that new guy keeps 95% of guys here and 100% of the guys here we need to stay here.

 

[UConnDan97]

I don't see how you can put one season (2013 in this case) in a vacuum. I know people who today are somewhat hesitant to buy basketball tickets because of what they felt was Hathaway bilking them nearly a decade ago. I'm convinced that many will be hesitant to buy tickets for 2014 if they believe that we made no attempt to improve the program because we knew decade long season ticket holders would not pass up Michigan at the Rent

If WM is waiting for the big move to be what motivates ticket sales in a huge question mark year (2014), so be it. It may be a very good strategy and he may know something that we do not which will make thirteen or fourteen months from today a better time to make the change, If this is his plan, he would be well served in informing the fan base (after the new hire) that there were valid reasons for the delay and that this was his plan all along. If not, many may see it as a feeble attempt to sell tickets to fans who are fed up.

I'm not putting this one season in a vacuum at all!!! Find me a season in Rentschler's history that had less than a 32k attendance, even at the height of the recession. This is why I'm having a hard time understanding people saying that we will be at 25k next year if PP isn't gone and that a new coach, being paid only 600k, will bring us back to a packed house of 40k!

This conversation has arrived at Crazy-town, so it's best if I just stop posting on the subject.

 

[uconNYC]

Rutgers' head coach is making $750,000 this year.

Not only did JH make a terrible hire, he paid PP too much! Addazio is on 675K.

 

[metsfan2323]

I couldn't find Steve Adazzio's salary, but based on the below he is making 6 figures. Golden was only making $550,000 at Temple. We are paying P a ridiculous salary.

"Addazio, 51, who previously was the offensive coordinator and associate head coach at Florida, agreed to a six-year contract to succeed Al Golden, who on Dec. 12 was named to the same position at Miami. Addazio's annual salary at Temple was not disclosed, but Golden was believed to have earned about $550,000 a year while coaching the Owls."

 

[Dann]

I'm not putting this one season in a vacuum at all!!! Find me a season in Rentschler's history that had less than a 32k attendance, even at the height of the recession. This is why I'm having a hard time understanding people saying that we will be at 25k next year if PP isn't gone and that a new coach, being paid only 600k, will bring us back to a packed house of 40k!

This conversation has arrived at Crazy-town, so it's best if I just stop posting on the subject.

becuase never before has this fanbase wanted a guy out like right now. did some of us not like randy at times? sure. but we never as a group had 98% of a fanbase all wanting him out over many reasons that have added up. the hate for randy was his recruiting ways and his style of play vs big boys resuls wise. but he was building a program and hit a wall yes but never sucked like P is doing ight now. randys bad years were ugly but we knew that the program was going up. its not the case right now and the 20k of diehard local fans this program has aren't going to stand for that. that will be the attendance shocker next year. when 10 of tose 20k watch on tv, the 10k that party will never leave the lot seeing no reason to. then u will see a 25-30k sold but 15-20k in the rent.

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

in 2005 Uconn sold out every game at the Rent. in 2007 they averaged 38,000+, in 2009 35,000+. I suspect that in 2013 that will be closer to 30,000 or maybe even 28,000. take out Michigan? oh boy.

Getting back to 40,000 is not impossible. Hope and a good QB will do it

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I'm not putting this one season in a vacuum at all!!! Find me a season in Rentschler's history that had less than a 32k attendance, even at the height of the recession. This is why I'm having a hard timem understanding people saying that we will be at 25k next year if PP isn't gone and that a new coach, being paid only 600k, will bring us back to a packed house of 40k!

This conversation has arrived at Crazy-town, so it's best if I just stop posting on the subject.

The argument you are stating is not the position that I am (or have been) arguing. The argument we've had is whether it would or would not be cost effective to change head coaches after this season ends, Obviously there can only be speculation today and the end result may well never be known.

You are however using some puffery as the highest number per game stated by anyone was 7k per game. You somehow construed this to be 15k (40k - 25k). I don't see this as crazy town but you appear to be veering off reality a bit to paint others as being crazy.

You also have been placing next season in a vacuum (in terms of cost effectiveness of replacing PP) as all of your arguments require the cost of the buyout being fully recovered in the upcoming season and implies that whatever happens after 2013 would have been constant regardless of when, or even if PP was replaced.

 

[UConnDan97]

becuase never before has this fanbase wanted a guy out like right now. did some of us not like randy at times? sure. but we never as a group had 98% of a fanbase all wanting him out over many reasons that have added up. the hate for randy was his recruiting ways and his style of play vs big boys resuls wise. but he was building a program and hit a wall yes but never sucked like P is doing ight now. randys bad years were ugly but we knew that the program was going up. its not the case right now and the 20k of diehard local fans this program has aren't going to stand for that. that will be the attendance shocker next year. when 10 of tose 20k watch on tv, the 10k that party will never leave the lot seeing no reason to. then u will see a 25-30k sold but 15-20k in the rent.

Let me just end it on this:

1) What are the names of some of the perspective coaches that the fanbase would "come back" for?
2) What would their market salary be worth?
3) What would the attendance difference be with and without this new individual, REALISTICALLY, in terms of thousands?

Why is it that I am feeling like Whaler is the only one left that can answer these questions somewhat rationally at this point? Yes, I typed it. Mark today down...

 

[UConnDan97]

take out Michigan? oh boy

Take out my uncles stones, and he's my aunt...

 

[UConnDan97]

The argument you are stating is not the position that I am (or have been) arguing. The argument we've had is whether it would or would not be cost effective to change head coaches after this season ends, Obviously there can only be speculation today and the end result may well never be known.

You are however using some puffery as the highest number per game stated by anyone was 7k per game. You somehow construed this to be 15k (40k - 25k). I don't see this as crazy town but you appear to be veering off reality a bit to paint others as being crazy.

You also have been placing next season in a vacuum (in terms of cost effectiveness of replacing PP) as all of your arguments require the cost of the buyout being fully recovered in the upcoming season and implies that whatever happens after 2013 would have been constant regardless of when, or even if PP was replaced.

First, the "puffery" came because HFD was stating some numbers that have ne'er been seen at the Rent, including a high-end value of 45k. Second, the 2013 financials are being placed in a vacuum because that is how the statement originated. If we want to talk about long-term value, then we are not having a discussion about 7k fans for $25 a pop next year, right? Geez, c'mon, dude. That was the statement I've been talking about all along...

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Not Whaler but I'll give it a shot

Let me just end it on this:

1) What are the names of some of the perspective coaches that the fanbase would "come back" for?
To make it easy, any of the MAC coaches who have been having success at the expense of BE schools who are at least ten years younger than PP (That covers at least three, there were a handful of assistants at other schools whose names have been thrown around if you want to increase the talent pool).
2) What would their market salary be worth?
I'll start with $500k less than what we are currently paying our HC. $1.0 mm per year would be sufficient.
3) What would the attendance difference be with and without this new individual, REALISTICALLY, in terms of thousands?
Over the course of a seven home game schedule in 2013, 20k for the year would be a conservative estimate. I imagine that it would be at least that for the subsequent few seasons. All we would need to do in year one would be to sell 10k tickets at $25.00 each to break even (not including other potential ancillary gains). Going forward, the increases will grow considerably.

Why is it that I am feeling like Whaler is the only one left that can answer these questions somewhat rationally at this point? Yes, I typed it. Mark today down...

 

[Dann]

Let me just end it on this:

1) What are the names of some of the perspective coaches that the fanbase would "come back" for?
any coach that this fanbase thinks is a good hire will keep the fans happy and they will support warde killing this now and not turing us inot a bc/cuse. of 5 years of crap. look at those schools digging out of the mess. fans will respect the move as big time and a shot as us acting like it. they will buy tix and support the team for that alone. at this point its about the man with the headset. we have talent, the nfl draft will say so. but its not happeing with p and d. a new coach is not expected to win right away but if he did that would be great, i could make a very very strong argument that if u get a new coach in now, keep all recruits and most players-that 2014 would be potentially our best year ever as a program. i can back that up player by potential payer on deck and why.
2) What would their market salary be worth?
i can care less. its worth it in the long run to do this now $$ wise. its not even a question. get me a coach, maybe year 1 is small and it build up more thsan normnal contract wise. fine w/e. 1mil to 2 mil im fine with depending on who it is. if its a young guy, its got to be enough where he stays 4-5 years and we get a shot to up it to where he think about joining JC and GA and a few other great coaches we currently have around this campus. this school has something special that very few ever touch ala joe pa(lets not get into it) at psu. we have never had to deal with coaching issues until now and SO FAR ITS HITTING US IN THE DICK WITHOUT REACTION/CORRECT MOVES FROM WARDE.
3) What would the attendance difference be with and without this new individual, REALISTICALLY, in terms of thousands?
i suspect that the many who would join me on the coach would instead continue to support the new coach and program on a upward move instead of protesting p and d. i think you are under selling all those who are upset enough to not show up and the effect that has. those diehards pissed lead to causla fans that join them not caring as the tailgates arent as many and the groups get smaller. the students dont get excited seeing empty lots and never stop drinking outside. then they say, wtf i can get drunk and hi without leaving campus plus watch the game at the same time. huge snowball effect. i think u will see many also go hard media wise this summer if p and d are still here. an all out front for fans to protest. it will get ugly
Why is it that I am feeling like Whaler is the only one left that can answer these questions somewhat rationally at this point? Yes, I typed it. Mark today down...
u are in a drak place. lets get a beer and get u out of it

 

[metsfan2323]

"1) What are the names of some of the perspective coaches that the fanbase would "come back" for?
To make it easy, any of the MAC coaches who have been having success at the expense of BE schools who are at least ten years younger than PP (That covers at least three, there were a handful of assistants at other schools whose names have been thrown around if you want to increase the talent pool).
2) What would their market salary be worth?
I'll start with $500k less than what we are currently paying our HC. $1.0 mm per year would be sufficient."

Amen to this

 

[ruskin]

What Silver is essentially saying is Manuel/Herbst/fan base HAVE to live with Hathaway's god-awful horrendous hire because. . . . .because . . . well, no one fires anybody after two years, especially UConn. (Never mind that the PP hire itself "projected weakness" to the rest of the college football world by hiring a coach that, as is pointed out often here, wasn't on ANYBODY's radar, except for Larry McHugh's).
I don't understand why these Horde guys are having a hard time grasping that the normal pollyanna got-to-give-a-coach-three-years axiom doesn't/shouldn't apply here. This is not even Indiana or Vanderbilt or Baylor, where there is conference stability and a semblance of I-A tradition. There's nothing normal about the way PP was hired by a weak and easily led and now gone AD, or the realignment mess, or the fact that a $150-million-plus investment in infrastructure in the last decade exceeded by few others is getting pissed away on a weekly basis, or at least to the tune of 8-12 in the past 20 games. Or the fact that a large part of an already shaky season ticket base won't renew if PP is in charge next year, Michigan or no Michigan.
UConn has been burned by BC, Pitt and Syracuse, among many others, because it thought "gentleman's agreements" still existed in big-time college football. It's almost laughable the Horde is lobbying for UConn to take that stance yet again because somebody no longer here made a terrible mistake two years ago.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

What Silver is essentially saying is Manuel/Herbst/fan base HAVE to live with Hathaway's god-awful horrendous hire because. . . . .because . . . well, no one fires anybody after two years, especially UConn. (Never mind that the PP hire itself "projected weakness" to the rest of the college football world by hiring a coach that, as is pointed out often here, wasn't on ANYBODY's radar, except for Larry McHugh's).

I'm curious as to how much power McHugh has and if he is what is keeping PP safe.

 

[uconNYC]

1) What are the names of some of the perspective coaches that the fanbase would "come back" for?
2) What would their market salary be worth?
3) What would the attendance difference be with and without this new individual, REALISTICALLY, in terms of thousands?

As long as it is not a PP clone or some ESPN analyst the fan base will be happy. Like a poster mentioned earlier, fans just need a sense of hope - that good results may be on the horizon. The problem with PP is not just the results. He does not engage or inspire the fan base, recruiting hasn't really picked-up and because of his age and experience an argument that he is "learning the ropes" does not fly. With PP there is no sense of hope.

1) I think the fan base would be content with any up and coming head coach from a lower level league or an assistant coach from a major program.

2) $1 Million

3) I believe Michigan and Maryland will be sold-out. The other five games will average 28,000. A new coach would raise that to 33,000 or an extra 25,000 tickets sold.

 

[whaler11]

As long as it is not a PP clone or some ESPN analyst the fan base will be happy. Like a poster mentioned earlier, fans just need a sense of hope - that good results may be on the horizon. The problem with PP is not just the results. He does not engage or inspire the fan base, recruiting hasn't really picked-up and because of his age and experience an argument that he is "learning the ropes" does not fly. With PP there is no sense of hope.

1) I think the fan base would be content with any up and coming head coach from a lower level league or an assistant coach from a major program.

2) $1 Million

3) I believe Michigan and Maryland will be sold-out. The other five games will average 28,000. A new coach would raise that to 33,000 or an extra 25,000 tickets sold.

No way. Attendance is based on tickets sold and season tickets will sell because people want those two games. 2014 may be 25k every game but the tickets will be sold next year.

 

[ruskin]

Coaching Hot Seat has a fairly reliable list of head coaches salaries.

It was mentioned above that you could get a young coach cheaper. I think that's true. Let's use our new friend Neal Brown of Texas Tech as an example. He's was making $355K last year. Let's be way generous and say he got a big raise to $500K this year. He applied to be the head coach at UMass which pays $400,000. You could bring Brown (or someone of his ilk) in for as little as $750,000 with a TON of incentives (including boosting season ticket sales, which a young coach like Brown would hopefully embrace as part of the job).

Why PP's base pay is as high as it is is another wonderful mystery only JH can answer.

 

[metsfan2323]

Coaching Hot Seat has a fairly reliable list of head coaches salaries.

It was mentioned above that you could get a young coach cheaper. I think that's true. Let's use our new friend Neal Brown of Texas Tech as an example. He's was making $355K last year. Let's be way generous and say he got a big raise to $500K this year. He applied to be the head coach at UMass which pays $400,000. You could bring Brown (or someone of his ilk) in for as little as $750,000 with a TON of incentives (including boosting season ticket sales, which a young coach like Brown would hopefully embrace as part of the job).

Why PP's base pay is as high as it is is another wonderful mystery only JH can answer.

Yup, P's ridiculous base salary is all the more reason to fire him. Net, net if P is fired UCONN will save money over the next two seasons even with the large buyout. The reporters that follow this team apparently failed Accounting 101.

 

[UConnDan97]

So by my count, three people (HFD, FCF, UconNYC) have answered my questions, and yet none of them provided an answer to question #1 (names of perspective coaches).

At least Ruskin gave us Neal Brown (interesting that the "Coaching Hot Seat" is the second site that I've seen Kyle Flood's salary reported at 1.5 mil and not 750k, but I have seen another site say that it was 750k....not sure what to believe). I think Ruskin is right that 750k with a highly incentivized contract may indeed land him. Short term money loss. Long term money gain. I'm good with that, assuming that he's the right guy.

At least I agree with HFD that he and I need to go grab a beer...

 

[whaler11]

So by my count, three people (HFD, FCF, UconNYC) have answered my questions, and yet none of them provided an answer to question #1 (names of perspective coaches).

At least Ruskin gave us Neal Brown (interesting that the "Coaching Hot Seat" is the second site that I've seen Kyle Flood's salary reported at 1.5 mil and not 750k, but I have seen another site say that it was 750k....not sure what to believe). I think Ruskin is right that 750k with a highly incentivized contract may indeed land him. Short term money loss. Long term money gain. I'm good with that, assuming that he's the right guy.

At least I agree with HFD that he and I need to go grab a beer...

You want the names of 'prospective' coaches?

Do you want the up and coming coordinators - the MAC level head coaches - or the former BCS retreads who may do well?

 

[Dann]

So by my count, three people (HFD, FCF, UconNYC) have answered my questions, and yet none of them provided an answer to question #1 (names of perspective coaches).

At least Ruskin gave us Neal Brown (interesting that the "Coaching Hot Seat" is the second site that I've seen Kyle Flood's salary reported at 1.5 mil and not 750k, but I have seen another site say that it was 750k....not sure what to believe). I think Ruskin is right that 750k with a highly incentivized contract may indeed land him. Short term money loss. Long term money gain. I'm good with that, assuming that he's the right guy.

At least I agree with HFD that he and I need to go grab a beer...

because at this point the name of the coach doesnt matter, its about a direction change for the program. simple as that. here is a list i posted last week in a old thread:
neal brown
matt campbell
willie taggart
sonny dykes
todd berry
gus malzahn
gary anderson
darrell hazell