John Silver's Saturday Thoughts

[UConnDan97]

If you save $600,000 is head coaches salary, and another $100,000 by hiring a cheaper offensive coordinator because I am sure DeLeone is making very good money that's 700,000 saved and at that point you only need to sell $300,000 in tickets to break even against P's 1 million dollar buyout.

Okay, so this is where the math is getting funny. Don't you still have to pay for PP's buyout?!? So wouldn't you need 1mil. for the buyout + the 1mil. for the new coach + the salary of the new OC + any buyout clause that GDL has in his contract???

So the point is that even if you get a 33% cheaper head coach (which is probably one that is MUCH LESS likely to put 30% more butts in the stands), you are still in the red. I hope that everyone gets the fact that if this happens, right or wrong, that it is going to cost UConn money. There will be no financial savings in that move...

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Additionally, the buyout drops $250k if we wait four weeks (which if we are looking at assistants from schools playing New Years bowls we may need to do anyway). If PP stays, it won't be because WM wants to save money.

 

[UConnDan97]

I doubt that it costs us any more for the Rent if the paid attendance is 36k or if it is 28k. That it costs us $170k per game (I'm pretty sure that the management company gets the parking & concessions and pays for the cops) is in and of itself reason to be more sensitive to paid attendance.

I'm pretty confident that next year we will play four home and four road BE games. We (shy of something unforeseen happening) have Michigan and Maryland coming to the Rent (although I imagine at the moment that many of us would be in favor of moving this game if the price included covering PP's buyout) along with an FCS (Towson I believe) at home. There should be seven home games in 2013.

1) Yeah, I corrected the 7 home games in my reply to HFD. Forgot about the 4 and 4 from the new conference format.
2) It's still unclear to me who pays for the parking / concessions / cops. Either way, the state of CT pays for it, whether it comes out of the UConn budget or the CT budget to pay Bushnell LLC.
3) I don't believe for one second that a new coach improves our attendance 7k.
4) I certainly don't believe that a CHEAPER coach improves our attendance 7k.

For all of the whining that people have done on other threads about wanting us to pay for "big time coaches with big time pay", there is no way that anyone would be happy getting someone new on the cheap...

 

[UConnDan97]

If PP stays, it won't be because WM wants to save money.

If PP GOES, it won't be because WM wants to save money either, right?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Okay, so this is where the math is getting funny. Don't you still have to pay for PP's buyout?!? So wouldn't you need 1mil. for the buyout + the 1mil. for the new coach + the salary of the new OC + any buyout clause that GDL has in his contract???

So the point is that even if you get a 33% cheaper head coach (which is probably one that is MUCH LESS likely to put 30% more butts in the stands), you are still in the red. I hope that everyone gets the fact that if this happens, right or wrong, that it is going to cost UConn money. There will be no financial savings in that move...

If GDL has a buyout (or even anything more than the standard year to year contract that assistants normally receive) Hathaway should be publicly flogged in the Red lot before the spring game.

The new HC (and OC) logically should cost us at least $500k less in 2013 than PP & GDL would. My math (and I'll match my math aptitude with anyone on this board) puts the cost of a 1/02/13 firing at $250k.

 

[sportsart]

The only people on the planet who know who will be coaching the UConn football team next year are Warde and Susan.

The horde probably think their "sources" think they have a clue but they don't.

If for some reason the beat boys are right (50/50 chance) then you can not tell me GDL will still be here. You just can't. If so, Warde is not, what we hoped he was.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If PP GOES, it won't be because WM wants to save money either, right?

No, but a solid argument could easily be made that it would be because WM wants to not only prevent losing money over the near term but also make more money (from football) over the long term.

 

[UConnDan97]

If GDL has a buyout (or even anything more than the standard year to year contract that assistants normally receive) Hathaway should be publicly flogged in the Red lot before the spring game.

The new HC (and OC) logically should cost us at least $500k less in 2013 than PP & GDL would. My math (and I'll match my math aptitude with anyone on this board) puts the cost of a 1/02/13 firing at $250k.

I agree that you will cost yourself 250k if you get a much cheaper head coach. Will a much cheaper head coach put 7k more butts in the stands??? Will a much cheaper coach be what this program needs to succeed???

So the "best-case scenario" that you've offered me is one where we only lose a quarter of a million, and then we likely don't climb out of mediocrity due to hiring a cheap coach that others didn't want...

 

[NutmegState]

Just Sharing.

Silver’s Saturday thoughts

October 27th, 2012 11:05 am

Some pointed commentary on talent and our offensive woes but in a nutshell:

"I just don’t see any plausible scenario where Pasqualoni gets removed barring off the field issues.
There are several things I want everyone to consider with Pasqualoni and his status. First off, the collateral damage from getting rid of a coach after two years — especially this one with experience and a track record — is absolutely devastating. It projects weakness as a program and indecision. Hiring a coach is getting married and you have to stick with that hire through thick and thin. If the Huskies remove Pasqualoni, it would signal a major change. That means the entire program would be gutted including assistants. That’s just not something you do lightly since a lot of Pasqualoni’s staff are holdovers from Edsall’s staff, and continuity is a big reason for success. A move now would be detonating the football program. Is it worth it? You better be sure, because it would get worse before it got better.

Manuel is also a strong leader, and he isn’t going to make a rash decision that fans or donors want. Donors? Yes, if Pasqualoni leaves the Huskies have to come up with $1 million buyout, $750,000 if after Jan. 1 (too late anyway). That has to come from somewhere. A donor? Manuel isn’t going to let a donor run his athletic department. The moment you allow a donor to do that, the AD cedes control of all activities. Some places it works, but that’s with overwhelming amounts of money like T. Boone Pickens at Oklahoma State. I highly doubt UConn is going to turn into a place like that. Now, with UConn President Susan Herbst adamantly advocating athletic departments “re-joining” the university community, I see little chance of a donor stepping in even if that person would pony up the cash. The thought of UConn paying its football coach $1 million to go away and then hiring someone for $2 million is a political non-starter here.

Athletic departments aren’t flush with cash, and UConn hasn’t bought a coach out in any sport in a very long time. The last major coach to be fired from football was Tom Jackson, right? That was 20 years ago. UConn doesn’t fire coaches. That’s not the culture here.

Change doesn’t come easy in Storrs. The land of steady habits indeed."

Utter nonsense. All of it.

 

[Dann]

I agree that you will cost yourself 250k if you get a much cheaper head coach. Will a much cheaper head coach put 7k more butts in the stands??? Will a much cheaper coach be what this program needs to succeed???

So the "best-case scenario" that you've offered me is one where we only lose a quarter of a million, and then we likely don't climb out of mediocrity due to hiring a cheap coach that others didn't want...

part it is that besides the michigan game, ppl are just stright up not going to go becuase PP is still here. its that simple as my whole crew will be in that boat. we will watch on tv, still buy out tshirts, tweet players and live our uconn lives. just not in hartford until we get change. i think there are thousands that will be joining this idea next year if P and crew are still here. hell, come summer i'll make sure of it...a new coach no matter the price gives fans a fresh start and a reason to believ in this program. that warde and susan are willing to see this thing go forward etc....we may not be good next year if the new staff cant keep kids or w/e, but ppl will support the change by showing up. thats worth thousands of tix a game besides the michigan game.

 

[metsfan2323]

So wouldn't you need 1mil. for the buyout + the 1mil. for the new coach + the salary of the new OC + any buyout clause that GDL has in his contract???

Yes you need 1 Million for the buyout, but now you don't need to pay 1.6 Million for P's 2013 Salary. By firing P you are saving $600,000 in 2013 P money. If you now found a head coach for $600,000 in 2013 you would break even.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

1) Yeah, I corrected the 7 home games in my reply to HFD. Forgot about the 4 and 4 from the new conference format.
2) It's still unclear to me who pays for the parking / concessions / cops. Either way, the state of CT pays for it, whether it comes out of the UConn budget or the CT budget to pay Bushnell LLC.
3) I don't believe for one second that a new coach improves our attendance 7k.
4) I certainly don't believe that a CHEAPER coach improves our attendance 7k.

For all of the whining that people have done on other threads about wanting us to pay for "big time coaches with big time pay", there is no way that anyone would be happy getting someone new on the cheap...

I don't want someone new on the cheap. I do believe however that even without going on the cheap we will save a decent amount from what PP's contract is (another reason to despise Hathaway).

I don't believe that we will need to average 7k more fans per game to pay for PP's dismissal. I do however believe that re-energizing the fan base will add (conservatively) 25k paying customers next year (with the assumption that the Michigan game will be a sellout even if we send out the 1988 squad coached by Tom Jackson for their 25th anniversary to play the Wolverines). With that, we only need to average $10.00 per ticket to break even.

Regardless, I am looking at a much longer term than one season and I believe that the effect will run out at least three or four years (until we reach full saturation, which would be near impossible with the current regime).

 

[UConnDan97]

part it is that besides the michigan game, ppl are just stright up not going to go becuase PP is still here. its that simple as my whole crew will be in that boat. we will watch on tv, still buy out tshirts, tweet players and live our uconn lives. just not in hartford until we get change. i think there are thousands that will be joining this idea next year if P and crew are still here. hell, come summer i'll make sure of it...a new coach no matter the price gives fans a fresh start and a reason to believ in this program. that warde and susan are willing to see this thing go forward etc....we may not be good next year if the new staff cant keep kids or w/e, but ppl will support the change by showing up. thats worth thousands of tix a game besides the michigan game.

With all due respect, HFD, I will believe 25k average attendance when I see it. We had a losing record last year, and three losses going into the Temple game, and we still had 37k at the game:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Connecticut_Huskies_football_team

If you told me that if the $hitty year continues, that we'll begin next year averaging 33k or so, I could buy that. The Maryland and Michigan games alone will likely prevent that, regardless of the coach, but I'll buy that. Also, there will be a couple of novelty games that might jack up the number also, especially if Boise is on the schedule. Rutty is at home next year too, assuming an East-West format is locked in to.

So again, regardless of coaching staff, I will believe 25k when I see it...

 

[UConnDan97]

Yes you need 1 Million for the buyout, but now you don't need to pay 1.6 Million for P's 2013 Salary. By firing P you are saving $600,000 in 2013 P money. If you now found a head coach for $600,000 in 2013 you would break even.

DID YOU JUST SUGGEST TO GET A HEAD COACH FOR 600K??? Holy crap, man!!

Here is a list in 2011 of all the head coaches in the Big East. Find me the one that was making less than a million:

http://college-football-coaches.findthedata.org/d/a/Big-East

Now here is a list of FBS coaches' salaries. Tell me how many "BCS" coaches are around or below 600k:

http://www.coacheshotseat.com/SalariesContracts.htm

Do you see what I'm getting at???

 

[Dann]

With all due respect, HFD, I will believe 25k average attendance when I see it. We had a losing record last year, and three losses going into the Temple game, and we still had 37k at the game:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Connecticut_Huskies_football_team

If you told me that if the $hitty year continues, that we'll begin next year averaging 33k or so, I could buy that. The Maryland and Michigan games alone will likely prevent that, regardless of the coach, but I'll buy that. Also, there will be a couple of novelty games that might jack up the number also, especially if Boise is on the schedule. Rutty is at home next year too, assuming an East-West format is locked in to.

So again, regardless of coaching staff, I will believe 25k when I see it...

temple was homecoming. only about 10 ppl at that game came for football. a lot of things went into that crowd being big. the crackdown of spring weekend makes that game/weekend look like a bigger party now. there was a concert on campus or somethig n which a lot of kids were double dipping day wise for and other things. the temple game was a huge fluke attendance wise. in a good year thats a 45ksell out plus record walking room tix if we wanted the way uconn set it up events wise. michigan will get 40k. they could get 45k if the school showed balls and di some bleachers etc. md will get a ok crowd but ppl see it for what it is. our old coach who never wnated to take this to a high level vs our new coach that is falling off a cliff. we are bad, we beat them. they then lost to bc. there is no fun or interest from most in that game right now besides the name itself. i predict tat the rent will be over half empty at the 5min mark of a first quarter of a game if PP and staff coach next year. so help me god if hats not true.

 

[metsfan2323]

DID YOU JUST SUGGEST TO GET A HEAD COACH FOR 600K??? Holy crap, man!!

No I am simply pointing out that firing P will not be as costly as our beat writers are making it out to be.

 

[Dann]

No I am simply pointing out that firing P will not be as costly as our beat writers are making it out to be.

and we all know now they are full of shit

 

[FfldCntyFan]

With all due respect, HFD, I will believe 25k average attendance when I see it. We had a losing record last year, and three losses going into the Temple game, and we still had 37k at the game:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Connecticut_Huskies_football_team

If you told me that if the $hitty year continues, that we'll begin next year averaging 33k or so, I could buy that. The Maryland and Michigan games alone will likely prevent that, regardless of the coach, but I'll buy that. Also, there will be a couple of novelty games that might jack up the number also, especially if Boise is on the schedule. Rutty is at home next year too, assuming an East-West format is locked in to.

So again, regardless of coaching staff, I will believe 25k when I see it...

I don't see how you can put one season (2013 in this case) in a vacuum. I know people who today are somewhat hesitant to buy basketball tickets because of what they felt was Hathaway bilking them nearly a decade ago. I'm convinced that many will be hesitant to buy tickets for 2014 if they believe that we made no attempt to improve the program because we knew decade long season ticket holders would not pass up Michigan at the Rent

If WM is waiting for the big move to be what motivates ticket sales in a huge question mark year (2014), so be it. It may be a very good strategy and he may know something that we do not which will make thirteen or fourteen months from today a better time to make the change, If this is his plan, he would be well served in informing the fan base (after the new hire) that there were valid reasons for the delay and that this was his plan all along. If not, many may see it as a feeble attempt to sell tickets to fans who are fed up.

 

[UConnDan97]

temple was homecoming. only about 10 ppl at that game came for football. a lot of things went into that crowd being big. the crackdown of spring weekend makes that game/weekend look like a bigger party now. there was a concert on campus or somethig n which a lot of kids were double dipping day wise for and other things. the temple game was a huge fluke attendance wise. in a good year thats a 45ksell out plus record walking room tix if we wanted the way uconn set it up events wise. michigan will get 40k. they could get 45k if the school showed balls and di some bleachers etc. md will get a ok crowd but ppl see it for what it is. our old coach who never wnated to take this to a high level vs our ****ty new coach that is falling off a cliff. we are bad, we beat them. they then lost to bc. there is no fun or interest from most in that game right now besides the name itself. i predict tat the rent will be over half empty at the 5min mark of a first quarter of a game if PP and staff coach next year. so help me god if hats not true.

Too much hyperbole. We couldn't have had 45k for Temple because they don't fit. Temple's attendance was not out of the ordinary for the rest of the numbers for the year, so you can't say it was just "homecoming".

I know that you hate PP and GDL. Believe me, I know!!! But c'mon now...

 

[metsfan2323]

Rutgers' head coach is making $750,000 this year.

 

[whaler11]

Holy crap. The buy out is a rounding error at legitimate football program. There is no way the buy out drives the decision.

 

[uconNYC]

How about loss in donations, sponsorship, brand value, campus morale, etc. ? Even if we lose money by firing PP- it's not going to be millions. It will be a minimal loss.

 

[whaler11]

Dan you are right - Maryland and Michigan will prop up the 2013 attendance. Without those games would be probably a 30k average. But they will sell a ton of season tickets off the back of Michigan.

 

[Dann]

Too much hyperbole. We couldn't have had 45k for Temple because they don't fit. Temple's attendance was not out of the ordinary for the rest of the numbers for the year, so you can't say it was just "homecoming".

I know that you hate PP and GDL. Believe me, I know!!! But c'mon now...

im saying that we could have got 45k for that type of weekend if we had the balls to and had a good team. band on the field, bleachers in the open area, more walking tix. thats stuff. that weekend uconn is trying to make big time now and it may work but we had fball this year and we still got 37k is my point. if homecoming and all that jazz was a different week, how many do u think show up? i saw a ton of tweets all that week from younger ppl saying "blah blah this or that, cant wait to get hammered at the rent and blha blah this or that". ppl showed up for the reunion party, not fball. it was a fluke attendance. if we were good(aka p and d gone), u could put up bleachers and all that good idea stuff for md and michiagn next year and get 40-45k imho. not now tho unless something changes quick and that new guy keeps 95% of guys here and 100% of the guys here we need to stay here.

 

[UConnDan97]

I don't see how you can put one season (2013 in this case) in a vacuum. I know people who today are somewhat hesitant to buy basketball tickets because of what they felt was Hathaway bilking them nearly a decade ago. I'm convinced that many will be hesitant to buy tickets for 2014 if they believe that we made no attempt to improve the program because we knew decade long season ticket holders would not pass up Michigan at the Rent

If WM is waiting for the big move to be what motivates ticket sales in a huge question mark year (2014), so be it. It may be a very good strategy and he may know something that we do not which will make thirteen or fourteen months from today a better time to make the change, If this is his plan, he would be well served in informing the fan base (after the new hire) that there were valid reasons for the delay and that this was his plan all along. If not, many may see it as a feeble attempt to sell tickets to fans who are fed up.

I'm not putting this one season in a vacuum at all!!! Find me a season in Rentschler's history that had less than a 32k attendance, even at the height of the recession. This is why I'm having a hard time understanding people saying that we will be at 25k next year if PP isn't gone and that a new coach, being paid only 600k, will bring us back to a packed house of 40k!

This conversation has arrived at Crazy-town, so it's best if I just stop posting on the subject.

 

[uconNYC]

Rutgers' head coach is making $750,000 this year.

Not only did JH make a terrible hire, he paid PP too much! Addazio is on 675K.

 

[metsfan2323]

I couldn't find Steve Adazzio's salary, but based on the below he is making 6 figures. Golden was only making $550,000 at Temple. We are paying P a ridiculous salary.

"Addazio, 51, who previously was the offensive coordinator and associate head coach at Florida, agreed to a six-year contract to succeed Al Golden, who on Dec. 12 was named to the same position at Miami. Addazio's annual salary at Temple was not disclosed, but Golden was believed to have earned about $550,000 a year while coaching the Owls."

 

[Dann]

I'm not putting this one season in a vacuum at all!!! Find me a season in Rentschler's history that had less than a 32k attendance, even at the height of the recession. This is why I'm having a hard time understanding people saying that we will be at 25k next year if PP isn't gone and that a new coach, being paid only 600k, will bring us back to a packed house of 40k!

This conversation has arrived at Crazy-town, so it's best if I just stop posting on the subject.

becuase never before has this fanbase wanted a guy out like right now. did some of us not like randy at times? sure. but we never as a group had 98% of a fanbase all wanting him out over many reasons that have added up. the hate for randy was his recruiting ways and his style of play vs big boys resuls wise. but he was building a program and hit a wall yes but never sucked like P is doing ight now. randys bad years were ugly but we knew that the program was going up. its not the case right now and the 20k of diehard local fans this program has aren't going to stand for that. that will be the attendance shocker next year. when 10 of tose 20k watch on tv, the 10k that party will never leave the lot seeing no reason to. then u will see a 25-30k sold but 15-20k in the rent.

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

in 2005 Uconn sold out every game at the Rent. in 2007 they averaged 38,000+, in 2009 35,000+. I suspect that in 2013 that will be closer to 30,000 or maybe even 28,000. take out Michigan? oh boy.

Getting back to 40,000 is not impossible. Hope and a good QB will do it

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I'm not putting this one season in a vacuum at all!!! Find me a season in Rentschler's history that had less than a 32k attendance, even at the height of the recession. This is why I'm having a hard timem understanding people saying that we will be at 25k next year if PP isn't gone and that a new coach, being paid only 600k, will bring us back to a packed house of 40k!

This conversation has arrived at Crazy-town, so it's best if I just stop posting on the subject.

The argument you are stating is not the position that I am (or have been) arguing. The argument we've had is whether it would or would not be cost effective to change head coaches after this season ends, Obviously there can only be speculation today and the end result may well never be known.

You are however using some puffery as the highest number per game stated by anyone was 7k per game. You somehow construed this to be 15k (40k - 25k). I don't see this as crazy town but you appear to be veering off reality a bit to paint others as being crazy.

You also have been placing next season in a vacuum (in terms of cost effectiveness of replacing PP) as all of your arguments require the cost of the buyout being fully recovered in the upcoming season and implies that whatever happens after 2013 would have been constant regardless of when, or even if PP was replaced.