Jeff Goodwin's Big East update

[champs99and04]

KenPom is meaningless until mid-December. We do not know much about how much of our schedule is Q1 or Q2 or whatever until then.

Why do you say that? Obviously the more data it collects, the more reliable it is, but it tends to be pretty accurate, at least as a grouping mechanism (which is also what NET is), even this early in the season.

Unfortunately, with conference play fast approaching, the league's fate is already mostly sealed. Some teams will move up and others will move down as the season plays out, but the net result will be the same. UConn's done enough in the OOC to maintain credibility as a possible protected seed, but it will have to win a lot and by the expected margins.

 

[REB1094]

One bad year since he’s been here is not the end of the world. Let’s see if they become a tourney team again next year.

He should. I hope he does for his sake. He deserves better.

There’s context to Cooley missing the tournament. I don’t think people realize how big Vince was for Georgetown this year. They looked really good before he went down.

Health has been the main reason for their struggles and they’re starting to bring in more and more talent.

It’s the trajectory that’s more concerning than just this one year. 29 wins in 2023, 27 in 2024, 23 last year, on pace for less than that this year

They did have the sweet 16 but they beat two double digit seed teams and then got punked by a third one in that run. That’s the outlier instead of the trend as Shaka’s other seasons have been two 1st round exits and a 2nd round exit

Maybe the underclassmen grow up and lead them back to success in the next few years, but in today’s game it doesn’t have to be that way. They easily could have picked up some portal players and developed young guys at the same time for a better season

 

[Excalibur]

Shaka’s system in the current world is a recipe to be pretty good 2 out of every 4 years unless you absolutely crush multiple recruiting classes (which is hard to do when most of your targets are top 100 to 50 guys.

Cooley is a good coach and Georgetown is near the top of the conference in terms of resource commitments, but their ceiling is also “pretty good”.

Creighton is having an off year under McDermott, but they’re done as soon as he is.

 

[Excalibur]

Marquette has built a culture that guys transferring out isn’t a problem. The players there came in with an understanding that they have a coach committed to them and they commit to him in return.

That can change awfully quickly when you’re not winning. Good players on a bad team may look to go somewhere where they can win.

 

[superjohn]

Shaka’s system in the current world is a recipe to be pretty good 2 out of every 4 years unless you absolutely crush multiple recruiting classes (which is hard to do when most of your targets are top 100 to 50 guys.

Cooley is a good coach and Georgetown is near the top of the conference in terms of resource commitments, but their ceiling is also “pretty good”.

Creighton is having an off year under McDermott, but they’re done as soon as he is.

I strongly disagree Creighton will be done when McDermott is done. Huss recruited those guys who have made them so successful and he did a great job at High Point. I think this is a succession plan that will work out very well.

 

[HW611]

It’s the trajectory that’s more concerning than just this one year. 29 wins in 2023, 27 in 2024, 23 last year, on pace for less than that this year

They did have the sweet 16 but they beat two double digit seed teams and then got punked by a third one in that run. That’s the outlier instead of the trend as Shaka’s other seasons have been two 1st round exits and a 2nd round exit

Maybe the underclassmen grow up and lead them back to success in the next few years, but in today’s game it doesn’t have to be that way. They easily could have picked up some portal players and developed young guys at the same time for a better season

That’s a very fair point as far as trajectory goes. If they don’t get back to being really good next year Shaka may have to look at some changes.

Shaka’s system in the current world is a recipe to be pretty good 2 out of every 4 years unless you absolutely crush multiple recruiting classes (which is hard to do when most of your targets are top 100 to 50 guys.

Cooley is a good coach and Georgetown is near the top of the conference in terms of resource commitments, but their ceiling is also “pretty good”.

Creighton is having an off year under McDermott, but they’re done as soon as he is.

Thats the issue with Shaka. They really don’t recruit well enough to be consistently good. At best they’re getting the 75th best player in the class.

If he could actually get top 50 recruits who can make a good impact their freshman year it may work better but he’s not.

I’d say Georgetown’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s. They have the history, resources, and they’re in a recruiting hotbed. They don’t have to go more than an hour away from their school to build a great roster.

Before Ewing screwed everything up, they were one of the top programs in the country. Cooley is doing his best Hurley impression to put the pieces back together.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

I strongly disagree Creighton will be done when McDermott is done. Huss recruited those guys who have made them so successful and he did a great job at High Point. I think this is a succession plan that will work out very well.

They also have massive fan support and will pivot if the succession doesn't go well. They're probably the last Big East team I'm worried about long term

 

[Excalibur]

Georgetown was not one of the top programs in the country. They haven’t been to the second weekend in almost 20 years. From 2008 to 2015, they qualified as pretty good.

 

[HW611]

Georgetown was not one of the top programs in the country. They haven’t been to the second weekend in almost 20 years. From 2008 to 2015, they qualified as pretty good.

They didn’t make it to a second weekend because they underperformed in the tournament. But they were consistently a top 10 team and had a NPOY as recently as 2012. They also made it to a Sweet 16 that year

I know championships are the only measure of success for us, but other programs aren’t as fortunate and have to look at other factors for success too lol

 

[RuffRuff]

I strongly disagree Creighton will be done when McDermott is done. Huss recruited those guys who have made them so successful and he did a great job at High Point. I think this is a succession plan that will work out very well.

Hard to know - McDermott is a culture builder and great in game strategist, he's kind of their brand and that's not really a brand that carries outside of the coach. It's a small Catholic in Omaha in the middle of football country, not exactly what I would call a hoops destination.

 

[RuffRuff]

They didn’t make it to a second weekend because they underperformed in the tournament. But they were consistently a top 10 team and had a NPOY as recently as 2012. They also made it to a Sweet 16 that year

I know championships are the only measure of success for us, but other programs aren’t as fortunate and have to look at other factors for success too lol

Gtown strikes me as a fan base that just needs one deep run to re-engage. When you've been bad for that long, I think you go into a state of need to see it to believe it before you commit. Get them to an Elite 8 or so, and I think Hoya Paranoia is back.

 

[superjohn]

Hard to know - McDermott is a culture builder and great in game strategist, he's kind of their brand and that's not really a brand that carries outside of the coach. It's a small Catholic in Omaha in the middle of football country, not exactly what I would call a hoops destination.

They're like 6th nationally in attendance every year, they also had it rolling pretty good under Dana Altman before McDermott and the Big East move.

 

[alexd]

UConn is back from where?

We went an entire season without winning the national title.