Is the AAC even P6?

[Zissou]

the AAC will not allow them to be a FB only school making them an independent FBV school (see UMass for a reference point).

And how is that expansion to 12 members that was projected when the BE signed their television contract coming along?

The American won’t allow it, until they do. It has to be negotiated. See Navy.

The expansion up to 12 is an option that the conference may exercise, at its option, with a plus up by Fox so that there is no dilution. There is no need to expand. UConn is one of the few programs, IMO, that adds value.

No to VCU, no to Dayton, no to Wichita. Yes to UConn.

I think if we added UConn it would only be as an 11th, and we’d preserve the full double round robin schedule. 12 makes that more difficult.

 

[06029]

The American won’t allow it, until they do. It has to be negotiated. See Navy.

The expansion up to 12 is an option that the conference may exercise, at its option, with a plus up by Fox so that there is no dilution. There is no need to expand. UConn is one of the few programs, IMO, that adds value.

No to VCU, no to Dayton, no to Wichita. Yes to UConn.

I think if we added UConn it would only be as an 11th, and we’d preserve the full double round robin schedule. 12 makes that more difficult.

You did not answer the Nova revenue question. I fail to see how the economics of your proposal would work particularly since Uconn would be rendered an independent.

Navy made $2.63mm form the AAC in 2016/17. Uconn made $8.1mm. Assuming Uconn gets the same special Navy deal (a huge assumption), would the BE make up more than $5.5 million in revenue? Probably not. They have a $500 million 12 year TV deal - $4.2 million per team per year and it is not clear if the TV deal goes up unless there is a 12th team added. Just on economics alone, your idea fails.
AAC revenue
NBE TV deal

 

[Zissou]

You did not answer the Nova revenue question. I fail to see how the economics of your proposal would work particularly since Uconn would be rendered an independent.

Navy made $2.63mm form the AAC in 2016/17. Uconn made $8.1mm. Assuming Uconn gets the same special Navy deal (a huge assumption), would the BE make up more than $5.5 million in revenue? Probably not. They have a $500 million 12 year TV deal - $4.2 million per team per year and it is not clear if the TV deal goes up unless there is a 12th team added. Just on economics alone, your idea fails.
AAC revenue
NBE TV deal

Big East revenue from Fox TV is about $4.2M each as you noted, basketball only.
AAC revenue from ESPN is about $2M each, includes football and basketball.

I think UConn revenue from the AAC includes $$$M in payout from the Big East from the split. That payout was for the divorce and for the Big East name being retained by the C7. The payout only goes to UConn, Cincy, and USF. That revenue stream is about to finish paying out.

I'd expect the AAC and Big East to land a better TV deals. Let's guess $7M for the American, and let's be modest and say $5M for the Big East.

Now we know the AAC puts its value in football. Let's project that UConn negotiates to be football only and get an 80% share of the $7M, or $5.6M. The Big East welcomes UConn with a full $5M share.

That's $10.6M to UConn as Big East full + AAC football only vs. $7M AAC full membership. Of course football bowl and playoff shares as well as hoops distributions from the NCAA are on top in both cases.

 

[billybud]

No conference playing football will split 80% for that one sport....

Notre Dame plays five of 8 games and does not get a 80% split...

 

[billybud]

Notre Dame gets a little less than a 25% split for being in the ACC for all sports except for football...and football playing five games.

They will get a full split on the ACCN because of the non football content to be shown...

 

[DarthGrumpy]

I apologize in advance to anyone that has a member on this team but I flew to FLL last week and the Uconn women's rowing team was on it. That is a larger team than WBB, soccer and possible field hockey with 30+ members plus staff. I am sure there are few or no full scholarships there but they were on SWA to FLL and I am sure they will return at some point. That is a big cost and a non-revenue sport. The number of female athletes probably helps Title IX compliance issues that you have with an 85 member football team. Uconn supports a lot of programs and cuts would have to be on the men's sports side with golf, cross country, tennis, swimming, etc with equal cuts on the woman's side. Not sure if that can ever happen.

With respect to Title XI, football is the killer due to its size in terms of number of scholarships and the fact that there isn't a complementary women's program. When UConn upgraded its football program, both Women's Crew and Women's Law, both of which were club teams at the time, got bumped up to Varsity status. Neither program can go anywhere as long as UConn has a FBS football program.

 

[Zissou]

Bud, it’s interesting trivia on Notre Dame, but they have their own TV contract. What they get from the ACC is incremental.

The question on the table is what does navy get? Navy also has its own TV deal, but it’s a full conference member for football, and I think it’s a high percentage payout.

 

[billybud]

But all Navy home games are televised by CBS, under Navy's contract, until 2027.

Like Notre Dame, they have their own football contract for football.

"It is extremely rare for a conference to allow one of its member schools to negotiate its own separate television contract. Athletic director Chet Gladchuk said such autonomy was a prerequisite to Navy becoming a member of the American Athletic Conference."

From the Capital Gazette...

"Navy, as a football-only member, received just over $2.6 million. That is peanuts folks."

 

[Zissou]

But all Navy home games are televised by CBS, under Navy's contract, until 2027.

Like Notre Dame, they have their own football contract for football.

"It is extremely rare for a conference to allow one of its member schools to negotiate its own separate television contract. Athletic director Chet Gladchuk said such autonomy was a prerequisite to Navy becoming a member of the American Athletic Conference."

From the Capital Gazette...

"Navy, as a football-only member, received just over $2.6 million. That is peanuts folks."

Right, that is what I said, Navy has its own partial TV deal (due to the Army Navy game), it is a full AAC football only member and gets a AAC payout.

For comparison, Navy gets a $2.6M AAC payout vs Tulane at $3.6M. This is the point. Navy is football only and gets a substantial share vs full members. Only $1M less than Tulane, and Navy has its own partial TV deal.

UConn as football only in the AAC should get about 80% of a TV deal, and a full share of bowl and CFP distributions. UConn as Big East would add to that a full share of BE TV revenue and the NCAA basketball tournament distributions.

The AAC cash pile revenue from exit fees and the C7 divorce is going away. That is a big hit to UConn’s revenue vs the last few years.

 

[Zissou]

Sometimes it’s hard for casual observers to see what is possible until it is hindsight.

UConn could negotiate a football-only deal with the AAC.

It would be easy to say “Navy would be a nice add to the AAC, but there is absolutely no way it can happen because they have the Army Navy game, their own TV deal, and they are not leaving their conference for other sports where they have a near Ivy fit”. And then it gets negotiated, even with all of the special circumstances.

UConn as an AAC football only member is a viable scenario.

 

[billybud]

The AAC took Navy because of a deal sweetner....one that UConn doesn't bring.

Although analysts have said:

"Not having all Navy home games as part of its package will hurt the American Athletic Conference to some degree as it enters into negotiations with ESPN and any other interested networks for its next broadcast agreement."

BUT...THE SWEETNER...

'However, that concern was mitigated tremendously by two concessions Navy made to help out the conference. First and foremost, Navy’s home game with Notre Dame that is held in even years will become part of the American Athletic Conference television package beginning in 2020.

Gladchuk believes giving up the home game with Notre Dame, which was previously part of the CBS Sports contract, signified a major commitment to the American Athletic Conference on the part of the Naval Academy Athletic Association."

 

[BRG 1]

With regard to Title 9 and non revenue sports saying 'drop all non revenue sports' is not as simple as it seems.
20 years ago Providence College dropped their baseball team as well as Tennis, Golf, and swimming. There was a huge uproar as baseball was the school's oldest sport, and was good enough to win the Big East and to lose to Florida State just before the College World Series.
In this era of Politics and Me Too imagine the liberal uproar if non revenue women's sports like women's hockey get cut.
One thing I haven't seen on voluminous threads on NBE/UConn is the value of regional rivalries. When I went to PC, my parents, who were UConn women's season ticket holders, would come to games when UConn woul play at Providence. Anecdotally I would see families / friends who had family members who went to both schools and that weekend would have a 'reunion ' of sorts. Highly doubt there are families that have members that go to both UConn and say, East Carolina. Olympic sports also benefited from his trips to UConn, New York, and Philly.
UConn is logical as an 11th member as Dayton and St. Louis teams' profile has fallen off and Gonzaga is too far away.
The whole point is moot if NBE president don't offer UConn a slot, and as someone said months ago, $$$ from NBE payout only works if Football is dropped or goes Independent or FCS.

 

[Zissou]

The AAC took Navy because of a deal sweetner....one that UConn doesn't bring.

Although analysts have said:

"Not having all Navy home games as part of its package will hurt the American Athletic Conference to some degree as it enters into negotiations with ESPN and any other interested networks for its next broadcast agreement."

BUT...THE SWEETNER...

'However, that concern was mitigated tremendously by two concessions Navy made to help out the conference. First and foremost, Navy’s home game with Notre Dame that is held in even years will become part of the American Athletic Conference television package beginning in 2020.

Gladchuk believes giving up the home game with Notre Dame, which was previously part of the CBS Sports contract, signified a major commitment to the American Athletic Conference on the part of the Naval Academy Athletic Association."

The sweetener is new, available when Navy renewed its independent TV deal after it was already an AAC football member. Navy is a positive for the conference.

It is also a precedent for a Football only membership that gets high compensation.

 

[billybud]

But...what would UConn have to offer the AAC as a sweetner...

Navy came to the AAC having gone to 11 bowls in 12 years and winning 8 games in 6 of the previous 7...was ranked on the AP and Coaches Poll and had record setting QB Kennan Reynolds under center.

And, as Aresco said...

"I expect that they will help drive up attendance when they play on the road in the conference. They have not only a national following, but with Naval bases worldwide, they bring a global audience to the AAC."

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Nova's football program is pathetic and a money loser. Nova needs to do something with the program. Status quo is football program failure.

In a perfect world rev sports cover the non rev sports. In the dilapidated end of town the rev sports don't even pay for themselves.

Can't find the story; but, there was a report that stated that only 20 to 30 D1 atheltic programs are self-sufficent, i.e. don't use student funds and/or general university revenue to cover the costs of all sport programs. I am prettty sure that Ohio St and Texas were included as 2 of those programs.

 

[zls44]

And, as Aresco said...

"I expect that they will help drive up attendance when they play on the road in the conference. They have not only a national following, but with Naval bases worldwide, they bring a global audience to the AAC."

And then they put them in the Western division, ensuring they come to the Rent as often as USC.

 

[Zissou]

Can't find the story; but, there was a report that stated that only 20 to 30 D1 atheltic programs are self-sufficent, i.e. don't use student funds and/or general university revenue to cover the costs of all sport programs. I am prettty sure that Ohio St and Texas were included as 2 of those programs.

I’m sure that’s true for covering the whole athletic dept, but many football programs cover their own costs.

 

[Zissou]

But...what would UConn have to offer the AAC as a sweetner...

If UConn fan thinks there is a value proposition for the ACC, that should also hold true for the AAC. A good following, the NE market, a share of the NYC market, some historical success...

Would Aresco want to go into TV negotiations, that are football based and built on his P6 campaign, while losing UConn football? There is a deal that could be done.

 

[06029]

If UConn fan thinks there is a value proposition for the ACC, that should also hold true for the AAC. A good following, the NE market, a share of the NYC market, some historical success...

Would Aresco want to go into TV negotiations, that are football based and built on his P6 campaign, while losing UConn football? There is a deal that could be done.

Time to hire you as the advisor to Uconn and get that deal done. I'm sure you are willing to work on a contingency basis, right? The NYC market assumption is probably the one thing everyone has the most data on and if Uconn was moving the needle significantly in FB in that market, then I think things would be different. I think they have more impact in NYC in BB because of heir long history and memorable games in MSG.

 

[Zissou]

The NYC market assumption is probably the one thing everyone has the most data on and if Uconn was moving the needle significantly in FB in that market, then I think things would be different. I think they have more impact in NYC in BB because of heir long history and memorable games in MSG.

I agree the UConn hoops has more NYC impact than their football.

The AAC values football at 80-90% of the TV deal and hoops 10-20%.

On a fictitious 10 point scale let’s say UConn has a “4” impact with football and an “8” impact with hoops. Football is still more important if you value it at 90% of the TV deal.

With hoops UConn not only brings its own fan base, but other fan bases tend to watch other conference foes. Johnnies fans will dial in more UConn games if UConn was in conference.

I almost never dial in WVU, Pitt, Rutgers, or Ville games now that they are out of conference.

 

[billybud]

I do think there would be more interest for UConn against old BE foes....but giving up football is the only way to get there...

And it would be a permanent relegation to the shallow pool.

Where the puddle is shallow, the weak fish stay
To drift along with the current's flow ;
To take the tide as it moves each day
With the idle ripples that come and go ;

With a shrinking fear of the gales that blow
By distant coasts where the Great Ports gleam;
Where the far heights call through the silver glow,
"Only the gamefish swims upstream."

 

[Zissou]

but giving up football is the only way to get there...

You sound so certain

 

[billybud]

Yes..I am...dropping football or going full Massachusetts (which would be an ultimate failure) is the only way that UConn would be able to join the BE.

 

[gtcam]

The AAC would never allow UConn to go football only - they want UConn MBB, WBB, Baseball and Mens Soccer.
The Big East has UConn's perennial powerhouse - UConn Field Hockey

 

[Zissou]

The AAC would never allow UConn to go football only

See Navy