Is SCar at UConn threadworthy?

[visitingcock]

I would say UConn's defense is better than their offense recently. They have the fourth best offense and forth best defense in the country in Massey ratings. I don't think their rebounding can keep up with South Carolina with Azzi and Caroline on the bench.

I don't understand Massey's ratings on offense an defense rank. Masseys ranks are not reflected in the Pt's scored and point given up rankings in NCAA stat. I guess the algorithm adjusts the stats with some kind of SOS application.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I don't understand Massey's ratings on offense an defense rank. Masseys ranks are not reflected in the Pt's scored and point given up rankings in NCAA stat. I guess the algorithm adjusts the stats with some kind of SOS application.

Points scored and given up is a very good indicator alone of defense and offensive ability. You need to adjust for pace. Its about the average point scored and allowed per possession, typically adjusted against SOS, but not sure if Massey adjusts for strength of schedule.

For example - say two teams gave up 30 points per game. You might think they are equal in defensive ability. But then you find out one team averages 15 defensive possession per game and one team averages 30 defensive possessions per game. Cleary one team is actually a much better defensive team than the other one is.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

I don’t totally understand the “80 points sitting on the bench” statement. UConn is scoring less points than they would with some of those players available, but by how many? They wouldn’t be scoring 160 points a game if those players were all available.

I don't take it as they would score 80 additional points in any given game. I take it as an indicator of what the opposition would be up against (theoretically) ...when facing the starting 5. Obviously, that wanes depending on a lot of factors...fouls, the ability to defend and rebound against the opponent, etc. As you sub with personnel who generally score less that 80 usually digresses, unless you have subs who can come close to sustaining that 80 threshold. And again, in general, if that 80 is represented by 5 players versus 2 or 3, the defense has to work a lot harder because you can't gamble on leaving people open.

 

[SCGamecock]

Lol, it will not be a blowout. Geno is throwing the kitchen sink at SC and I think Dawn will as well.. they both love this game and I think the fanbases do too. Hoping for a competitive matchup with a SC win.

 

[CL82]

Yes, I do know that. LOL. I did not suggest it is immaterial. Indeed, I said UConn will be the preseason favorite when those stars return. The Huskys' scoring average would almost certainly be higher this year if they were available. But, some (not you) will throw the 48/60 points on the bench out there like their replacements don't make up for some of their lost points.

BTW are we certain that Azzi won't be available for at least some PT in this game. As I understand it, she's "day to day." could we see her loosen up with a few minutes tonight?

My best guess is that she will not be, but even if she is having not played for so long, she is likely to be on a minutes limitation and have diminished effectiveness.

 

[CL82]

Lol, it will not be a blowout. Geno is throwing the kitchen sink at SC and I think Dawn will as well.. they both love this game and I think the fanbases do too. Hoping for a competitive matchup with a SC win.

If by “throwing the kitchen sink” you mean throwing everything he has, you would be correct. Of course given the severely depleted roster, it’s more like throwing the kitchen sponge in the kitchen sink.

 

[jpp13]

If UConn manages the same score as the title game I’ll be thrilled, I’m not shocked at something like 80-47 though. This group struggles with Providence we ain’t competing with SC.

 

[VA Huskie]

If we had Ducharme and Fudd, this would be a great game. Likely without either I think SC’s depth carrys the day. From what I’ve seen, SC’s vulnerable point can be scoring. While their average points is 80, they can play games where they score much fewer points than I would have expected. If that happens and UConn is able to play with energy (just watched the Providence game and the energy certainly isn’t back) it could be competitive. Bottom line I expect SC to win by 10-15 points.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

UConn won’t be able to compete this game. Edwards and Lou have hit a wall and no way can Nika and Dorka and Aubrey can carry the offense . I’m guess a loss by 20-30 if South Carolina comes out motivated. 15-20 if they come out slow.

 

[ConwayGmck]

An interesting comparison between both programs - in the last two recruiting classes, CT brought in:

'21) Azzi Fudd - out with injury
'21) Carolina Ducharme - out with injury
'21) Amari DeBerry - limited mpg
'21) Saylor Poffenbarger - transferred to Arkansas
'22) Ayanna Patterson - limited mpg
'22) Ice Brady - out with injury

While USC brought in:

'21) Raven Johnson - reserve who leads team in apg and spg
'21) Saniya Rivers - transferred to NC State
'21) Sania Feagin - missed some gms to injury, but has returned to active status
'21) Bree Hall - reserve
'22) Ashlyn Watkins - reserve
'22) Talaysia Cooper - reserve who is currently out with injury


In total, CT's players from the previous two classes have totaled roughly 940 total minutes of court time in 22 gms, for an average of 42.7 mpg, or 10-11 mpg for each of the 4 players that have actually seen court time this season. They have combined for 367 pts (16.7 ppg), 154 rebounds (7.0 rpg), 69 assists (3.1 apg), 26 blocks (1.2 bpg), and 27 steals (1.2 spg).

As for USC, the Gamecock's players from the previous two classes have totaled roughly 1,676 minutes of court time, which for 5 of the 6 still with the program and who have participated in games this season, is an average of 79.8 mpg, or an average of 16 mpg per player. They have combined for 473 pts (22.5 ppg), 250 rebounds (11.9 rpg), 109 assists (5.2 apg), 51 blocks (2.4 bpg), and 61 steals (2.9 spg).

 

[ConwayGmck]

If we had Ducharme and Fudd, this would be a great game. Likely without either I think SC’s depth carrys the day. From what I’ve seen, SC’s vulnerable point can be scoring. While their average points is 80, they can play games where they score much fewer points than I would have expected. If that happens and UConn is able to play with energy (just watched the Providence game and the energy certainly isn’t back) it could be competitive. Bottom line I expect SC to win by 10-15 points.

Both teams have had games this season where they struggled to score. South Carolina actually is the higher scoring team between the two, being ranked in the national top 10 in Scoring Offense at 9th, and CT being ranked 12th. After their game tonight that may drop a bit - the concession here is that CT has played a stronger schedule than USC has, and that may have hampered their scoring a bit. Although the majority of that strength lies in their OOC schedule. South Carolina is actually averaging more ppg (80.6) against SEC play than CT has averaged (79.4 ppg) vs Big East competition. And while CT is #1 nationally in FG %, USC is just outside the top 10, at 12th.

But USC is also ranked 1st nationally in Scoring Defense, FG % Defense, and 2nd (behind Fairleigh Dickinson - Go Knights!!) in 3-pt. FG % Defense. CT is ranked 60th, 9th, and 40th. It may be a battle of strong offense (CT) against strong defense (USC), but will CT's own defense be strong enough to impact USC's own strong offense? And will the Gamecocks strength in rebounding negate some of that impact, if it should prove to be?

 

[CTinLA]

Yes, I do know that. LOL. I did not suggest it is immaterial. Indeed, I said UConn will be the preseason favorite when those stars return. The Huskys' scoring average would almost certainly be higher this year if they were available. But, some (not you) will throw the 48/60 points on the bench out there like their replacements don't make up for some of their lost points.

BTW are we certain that Azzi won't be available for at least some PT in this game. As I understand it, she's "day to day." could we see her loosen up with a few minutes tonight?

It is possible that Caroline will be available for a few minutes, but highly unlikely that Azzi will be back.

 

[HuskyNan]

Have you forgotten that you are posting on the UConn Women’s Basketball forum? I said bye because it seems that you placed caveats on which UConn fans will be welcomed to join your discussion. Especially when being civil (paraphrasing) is one of the Women’s Basketball forum rules.

This board may be sitting on a UConn-centric site but the General board is natural. UConn fans will not be given the leeway they get on the UConn only board (hint hint).

By the way, the Boneyard already has moderators. We don’t need self appointed ones

 

[VA Huskie]

Both teams have had games this season where they struggled to score. South Carolina actually is the higher scoring team between the two, being ranked in the national top 10 in Scoring Offense at 9th, and CT being ranked 12th. After their game tonight that may drop a bit - the concession here is that CT has played a stronger schedule than USC has, and that may have hampered their scoring a bit. Although the majority of that strength lies in their OOC schedule. South Carolina is actually averaging more ppg (80.6) against SEC play than CT has averaged (79.4 ppg) vs Big East competition. And while CT is #1 nationally in FG %, USC is just outside the top 10, at 12th.

But USC is also ranked 1st nationally in Scoring Defense, FG % Defense, and 2nd (behind Fairleigh Dickinson - Go Knights!!) in 3-pt. FG % Defense. CT is ranked 60th, 9th, and 40th. It may be a battle of strong offense (CT) against strong defense (USC), but will CT's own defense be strong enough to impact USC's own strong offense? And will the Gamecocks strength in rebounding negate some of that impact, if it should prove to be?

Nice analysis. No doubt USC has a superior defense - and as they say in baseball “good pitching beats good hitting”. Good luck on Sunday… and may everyone stay (or get) healthy.

 

[Geew1992]

Last year's game had Paige playing the entire game, Azzi around 15 minutes, plus 3 seniors that a couple weeks later were in the WNBA. And we still got our butt's kicked. Probably not going to go much better this time around with our two best players unable to play.

Wasn't Azzi sick? Wasn't Liv hurt? I know they played, but obviously not at 100%. And no Dorka or Aubrey

 

[JoePgh]

To me it is obvious that the key to the game, and the outcome, is whether UConn can do a reasonable job of clearing its defensive boards. In the NC game last year, UConn's performance in that department was abysmal. The Gamecocks got 21 offensive rebounds vs. UConn's 6; they led in second-chance points by 22-5; and in paint points by a surprisingly small margin of 32-26.

When I watched the game months ago, I believe I recall that UConn's first defensive rebound was pulled down by Evina Westbrook about 8 minutes into the game, after South Carolina had (sometimes after 3 or 4 tries) successfully put back every one of their misses prior to that.

UConn's two big players in the game (Liv and Aaliyah) got a total of 4 rebounds (2 each) in the entire game, while Aliyah Boston got 16, despite only scoring 11 points. Paige led UConn with 6 rebounds -- obviously not the way rebounding is supposed to work, although I would not be surprised to see Nika get 6 rebounds on Sunday.

On the other side of the scale, Destanni Henderson scored 26 points (9-20 and 3-6 from 3), including quite a few in the first quarter. I doubt that any SC guard will torch UConn on Sunday quite like that.

Even so, after getting down 22-8 after Q1, the game was even for the last three quarters -- the Gamecocks actually won the last 30 minutes by 42-41. At one point late in the game, UConn closed the margin to 6 points, but could not sustain the momentum.

If the rebounding margin (particularly the offensive rebounding margin) is as lopsided on Sunday as it was in April, the final score will be in favor of SC by 15 to 20 points. But if UConn can keep SC's offensive rebound totals under control, then the game should be close. I am assuming that Aaliyah and Lou play their normal games (at the level of the Villanova game) and not the somnolent games that they had against Providence.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

To me it is obvious that the key to the game, and the outcome, is whether UConn can do a reasonable job of clearing its defensive boards. In the NC game last year, UConn's performance in that department was abysmal. The Gamecocks got 21 offensive rebounds vs. UConn's 6; they led in second-chance points by 22-5; and in paint points by a surprisingly small margin of 32-26.

When I watched the game months ago, I believe I recall that UConn's first defensive rebound was pulled down by Evina Westbrook about 8 minutes into the game, after South Carolina had (sometimes after 3 or 4 tries) successfully put back every one of their misses prior to that.

UConn's two big players in the game (Liv and Aaliyah) got a total of 4 rebounds (2 each) in the entire game, while Aliyah Boston got 16, despite only scoring 11 points. Paige led UConn with 6 rebounds -- obviously not the way rebounding is supposed to work, although I would not be surprised to see Nika get 6 rebounds on Sunday.

On the other side of the scale, Destanni Henderson scored 26 points (9-20 and 3-6 from 3), including quite a few in the first quarter. I doubt that any SC guard will torch UConn on Sunday quite like that.

Even so, after getting down 22-8 after Q1, the game was even for the last three quarters -- the Gamecocks actually won the last 30 minutes by 42-41. At one point late in the game, UConn closed the margin to 6 points, but could not sustain the momentum.

If the rebounding margin (particularly the offensive rebounding margin) is as lopsided on Sunday as it was in April, the final score will be in favor of SC by 15 to 20 points. But if UConn can keep SC's offensive rebound totals under control, then the game should be close. I am assuming that Aaliyah and Lou play their normal games (at the level of the Villanova game) and not the somnolent games that they had against Providence.

Lou had 4 points against Villanova. And Aaliyah was a disaster as well. That i not their normal game.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

We are hardly superheroes. Athletically, we are superb. But as far as skills, we are something less..

Our FT percentage, FG percentage and 3pt shooting percentage are barely above average, in some cases just average.

Down vote.

 

[maple]

Even though of course I am pulling for UConn to win, I would not be dissatisfied with a close game that results in a SC win. I would love to see a game like the regular season UConn/ND games that were played in the 2012-2013 season. Fiercely competitive and absolute nail biters down to the final seconds.

Realistically I think SC has the best chance of winning, which I credit mostly to their ability to rebound and deep bench. They have their “off” moments just as UConn does, so this could be an ugly rock fight of a game. But I’m hoping all the stars shine on Sunday and we all get to enjoy a great game.

 

[ConwayGmck]

We are hardly superheroes. Athletically, we are superb. But as far as skills, we are something less..

Our FT percentage, FG percentage and 3pt shooting percentage are barely above average, in some cases just average.

Our FT % has not been great, but since SEC play it has improved substantially, to 72%. Overall, it is now at 69%. Tonight, the Gamecocks shot 17-19 (89%). Our 3-pt. FG % is also not great, at 32%.

Our FG % however, is just outside of the top 10 nationally, and that is NOT "barely above average", in a league of 350 teams. All 3 statistical categories actually, are in the top 3rd.......

 

[visitingcock]

Down vote.

But, do you deny the facts?

 

[From France]

I think the starting 5 are quite equals, but SC's bench with Kardoso and Amihere is way better, they can avoid foul trouble when we can't

 

[visitingcock]

I think the starting 5 are quite equals, but SC's bench with Kardoso and Amihere is way better, they can avoid foul trouble when we can't

Don’t forget Watkins. The thing often overlooked is that her OT is not mop up. She sees first half minutes and against solid teams -even Stanford. Not a bunch of minutes but minutes that matter against opposing first stringers.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

Don’t forget Watkins. The thing often overlooked is that her OT is not mop up. She sees first half minutes and against solid teams -even Stanford. Not a bunch of minutes but minutes that matter against opposing first stringers.

Watkins is athletic and a good defender and right now with limited basketball skills. I see why Dawn likes her. She reminds me of Gabby Williams during her freshman year. Why did she go after Scherr (sp?)?

 

[Gamecockfan77]

But, do you deny the facts?

Somewhat, but I mostly object to the poor mouthing most of all.

this matchup has only gotten worse for UConn from last season, IMO. It's a road basketball game against a quality opponent though so who knows what will happen.

Geno is doing a good job keeping them together --- though it's a pretty good illustration of just how much talent UConn continues to roster that they've not missed a beat record wise.

I think the way the game is officiated will make a big difference.

I expect Geno to pack it in inside and UConn to be physical.