Is SCar at UConn threadworthy?

[Argonaut]

So, while I'm here, my two cents on the game...

I'll be shocked if UConn can keep it within 15, which feels wild to say on their home court.

UConn has been so successful without depth because the teams they've played so far, they've been able to get out to a comfortable enough lead that when the fatigue starts to kick in, UConn's talent has been able to withstand the push from everyone else's bench. I don't see them getting out to that big lead versus SC and then when the fatigue kicks in, SC has SUCH quality depth that UConn's starters will struggle to keep up.

I think with a healthy Azzi and Caroline, this game would be really interesting (especially in Storrs), but I don't see how UConn will be able to keep up without them.

And if Lou, Nika, and Aubrey all start the game shooting cold and SC can pack the paint, it could get ugly really quickly.

 

[bballnut90]

SC should win based on sheer defense, rebounding, and depth, but I think the key for their success is Zia Cooke. She's had a much better season than a year ago, but SC also prioritizes her more offensively now which is a mixed bag. If she's making shots, I don't think UCONN (or anyone) can beat SC since they're so hard to score on and have offensive production. If she's taking 12-15+ shots and only hitting 3-5 of those, UCONN can win.

For UCONN I think the key is LLS. I'm guessing SC will have Beal draped all over her, but if she can get shots off and make it, it'll give UCONN a huge boost.

Also really looking forward to seeing Edwards go up against SC's bigs. She hasn't faced anyone this year with the same size and physicality that Boston/Saxton/Cardoso/Watkins present. Should be a good match up.

 

[CL82]

SC should win based on sheer defense, rebounding, and depth, but I think the key for their success is Zia Cooke. She's had a much better season than a year ago, but SC also prioritizes her more offensively now which is a mixed bag. If she's making shots, I don't think UCONN (or anyone) can beat SC since they're so hard to score on and have offensive production. If she's taking 12-15+ shots and only hitting 3-5 of those, UCONN can win.

For UCONN I think the key is LLS. I'm guessing SC will have Beal draped all over her, but if she can get shots off and make it, it'll give UCONN a huge boost.

Also really looking forward to seeing Edwards go up against SC's bigs. She hasn't faced anyone this year with the same size and physicality that Boston/Saxton/Cardoso/Watkins present. Should be a good match up.

Seeing how a reenergized Dorka Juhasz plays against the South Carolina bigs will be interesting as well, particularly if her outside game is hot enough to draw a big defender out of the paint.

 

[GCKSFN4L]

I think @bballnut90 hit right on the money. Defense, Rebounding and Depth is what will likely lead SC to the win. Cooke plus the bench will likely be the X-factor. I'm curious how impactful Hall, Raven, Cardoso, Amihere and Feagin can be.

Having said all that, I would never count UConn out, there's definitely a pathway to victory especially in Storrs. I'm not predicting a complete blowout some are expecting. If it does get out of hand, it will likely won't occur until the 4th quarter.

 

[cancontent]

UConn is TIRED. THey have been playing a 5 player rotation the last two weeks and have more games than normal in the same time period because of the rescheduling. I think something like 5 games in 12 days. And those 5 players are banged up themselves and looking a bit gimpy as is. Plus, to match up well with South Carolina we need to exploit our advantage on the perimeter but thanks to injuries our backcourt is our weak point at the moment, specifically perimeter shooting.

So due to extreme fatigue the players are exhibiting and bad match up due to injuries, I don't see this game being interesting at all. Maybe it would be close with a healthy Azzi and CD but thats not a reality for next week so it is what it is.

Personally, I'm tired of the short rotation talking point. I get that it exists, but I'm not of the opinion that all is lost because of it.

Heck in Tennessee, they came close to faltering after the second quarter and turned it around in the second half of the game. We've seen teams in worse situations gut it out and play well.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Personally, I'm tired of the short rotation talking point. I get that it exists, but I'm not of the opinion that all is lost because of it.

Heck in Tennessee, they came close to faltering after the second quarter and turned it around in the second half of the game. We've seen teams in worse situations gut it out and play well.

I just don't think they'll have the legs to shoot, as evidenced by Villanova after Tennessee. I think the Villanova game is a better indication of how you can expect UConn to play offensively for the foreseeable future. Every shot was short from almost every player. And they have been pretty terrible on the boards recently so their defense can't save them either. I think they will win the rest of the regular season games and BET games this season with their front court until/If Azzi and/or CD comes back and then for the tournament they'll come back refreshed enough to be able to hit enough jumpers.

Even with 5 players this game would be more competitive in a month of so IMO. But its 5 players, plus being in the toughest stretch of the schedule, plus late January/Feb being the most fatiguing time of the season. Its just too much to overcome to compete with Sought Carolina IMO.

 

[dabears17]

I don’t totally understand the “80 points sitting on the bench” statement. UConn is scoring less points than they would with some of those players available, but by how many? They wouldn’t be scoring 160 points a game if those players were all available.

 

[CL82]

Personally, I'm tired of the short rotation talking point. I get that it exists, but I'm not of the opinion that all is lost because of it.

Heck in Tennessee, they came close to faltering after the second quarter and turned it around in the second half of the game. We've seen teams in worse situations gut it out and play well.

I don’t know if all is lost, but it’s a relevant observation. Yes, Connecticut has done phenomenally well with a short bench, but if you saw the Villanova game, it was readily apparent just have tired this team is. It definitely is a disadvantage for UConn. Now, it is a disadvantage that they have been able to compensate for against most opponents, but South Carolina is the defending champions and the top ranked team in the nation (I’m sure there’s a banner that says that somewhere). It is an impressively good team. With everyone healthy, the game was probably, at best, a coin flip. Without everyone healthy…

That doesn’t mean you don’t play the game, but it is an epic uphill climb for Connecticut.

 

[visitingcock]

Not me, particularly. I’m a big believer that the only game that matters is the next one, and the only ranking that matters is the last one.

I have to smile a little bit about your persistent enthusiasm about this game. Don’t get me wrong, I’m looking forward to it as well, but given that Connecticut has some thing approaching, maybe 80 points per game, maybe more, sitting on the bench unavailable to play and given that this current incarnation of the Gamecocks is actually being considered as the Phase 5 version of the Avengers for Marvel, my expectations for the game are somewhat dampened

We are hardly superheroes. Athletically, we are superb. But as far as skills, we are something less..

Our FT percentage, FG percentage and 3pt shooting percentage are barely above average, in some cases just average.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

The game will be as competitive as the rebounding margin. CT will have to play some zone...and should. Deberry and Patterson have to play some minutes, especially if there's no Fudd or Ducharme. I don't see a blowout. That is all.

 

[visitingcock]

I can set up a SC chat if there is interest.

Thank you for the offer, but I can't sit still during a game to participate in chats. Others may welcome the opportunity.

 

[hoopsfan22]

I don’t totally understand the “80 points sitting on the bench” statement. UConn is scoring less points than they would with some of those players available, but by how many? They wouldn’t be scoring 160 points a game if those players were all available.

I wonder this as well. Let's take Paige's 2020-21 average of 20.0 points per game, Azzi's 2022-23 average of 17.9 points per game, Ducharme's 2021-22 average of 9.8 points per game and you have 48 points per game currently sitting on the bench.

 

[visitingcock]

I wonder this as well. Let's take Paige's 2020-21 average of 20.0 points per game, Azzi's 2022-23 average of 17.9 points per game, Ducharme's 2021-22 average of 9.8 points per game and you have 48 points per game currently sitting on the bench.

Then, if you subtract out the scoring of their replacements . . .

You can't extrapolate that UConn would be scoring 160 points a game if they were playing

Anyway, UConn does have a load of talent out with injuries and would be much better with them playing. Hopefully they will all be back next year and will warrant a preseason #1 ranking, but the whole "points on the bench "is an infated way of saying "their scoring average could be higher" - not 48 or 80 points higher.

It will only take about 66 points to win this game. (my first prediction)

 

[CL82]

I wonder this as well. Let's take Paige's 2020-21 average of 20.0 points per game, Azzi's 2022-23 average of 17.9 points per game, Ducharme's 2021-22 average of 9.8 points per game and you have 48 points per game currently sitting on the bench.

Potato/potahto. Prior to the season, we know that Auriemma said that Paige was playing the best basketball of her career and had made a “huge leap” Azzi he’s capable of scoring in the 25 to 29 point range on any night. Think about last year’s Tennessee and Villanova games. We Ducharme go off in that same 24 to 29 range last season. And you appear to have forgotten about Ice Brady, who was expected to have a huge impact this season.

But, hey, if you want to use their averages, rather than the top of what they’re expected to contribute, that’s fine. Give us an additional “48 points” and I feel pretty confident we can beat anyone in the country.

 

[CL82]

Then, if you subtract out the scoring of their replacements . . .

You can't extrapolate that UConn would be scoring 160 points a game if they were playing

Anyway, UConn does have a load of talent out with injuries and would be much better with them playing. Hopefully they will all be back next year and will warrant a preseason #1 ranking, but the whole "points on the bench "is an infated way of saying "their scoring average could be higher" - not 48 or 80 points higher.

It will only take about 65 points to win this game. (my first prediction)

Lol, did anyone actually say that if everyone was healthy UConn would be scoring 160 points per game? I did say that we have the potential for 80 points sitting on the bench. I stand by that statement.

To suggest that losing Azzi Fudd, Paige Bueckers, Caroline Ducharme, and Ice Brady is somehow immaterial is, well, kind of insulting to those phenomenal players. It’s been a huge loss for this team. The fact that the rest of the team has worked exceptionally hard to remain competitive and speaks to their character, competitiveness, and talent, but the loss is still a huge one. But you know that.

 

[visitingcock]

Lol, did anyone actually say that if everyone was healthy UConn would be scoring 160 points per game? I did say that we have the potential for 80 points sitting on the bench. I stand by that statement.

To suggest that losing Azzi Fudd, Paige Bueckers, Caroline Ducharme, and Ice Brady is somehow immaterial is, well, kind of insulting to those phenomenal players. It’s been a huge loss for this team. The fact that the rest of the team has worked exceptionally hard to remain competitive and speaks to their character, competitiveness, and talent, but the loss is still a huge one. But you know that.

Yes, I do know that. LOL. I did not suggest it is immaterial. Indeed, I said UConn will be the preseason favorite when those stars return. The Huskys' scoring average would almost certainly be higher this year if they were available. But, some (not you) will throw the 48/60 points on the bench out there like their replacements don't make up for some of their lost points.

BTW are we certain that Azzi won't be available for at least some PT in this game. As I understand it, she's "day to day." could we see her loosen up with a few minutes tonight?

 

[hoopsfan22]

Then, if you subtract out the scoring of their replacements . . .

You can't extrapolate that UConn would be scoring 160 points a game if they were playing

Anyway, UConn does have a load of talent out with injuries and would be much better with them playing. Hopefully they will all be back next year and will warrant a preseason #1 ranking, but the whole "points on the bench "is an infated way of saying "their scoring average could be higher" - not 48 or 80 points higher.

It will only take about 66 points to win this game. (my first prediction)

The team averages 81 points per game. Even if you had everyone healthy and available it's not like they would have averaged 100 or even 90 points per game. To put it into perspective, the ridiculously loaded 2015-16 team (Stewie's last season) that some argue was not just the best UConn team ever but one of the best ever in the sport's history, averaged 88 points per game.

 

[Cornell Lt]

I imagine it will be a blow out, so not sure it's thready worthy.

What point margin constitutes a blowout ?

 

[Zanzman]

UConn is TIRED. THey have been playing a 5 player rotation the last two weeks and have more games than normal in the same time period because of the rescheduling. I think something like 5 games in 12 days. And those 5 players are banged up themselves and looking a bit gimpy as is. Plus, to match up well with South Carolina we need to exploit our advantage on the perimeter but thanks to injuries our backcourt is our weak point at the moment, specifically perimeter shooting.

So due to extreme fatigue the players are exhibiting and bad match up due to injuries, I don't see this game being interesting at all. Maybe it would be close with a healthy Azzi and CD but thats not a reality for next week so it is what it is.

 

[Dino]

Excited for this one too! I love women’s basketball! This year has been a special treat!

 

[hoopsnloops32]

What point margin constitutes a blowout ?

I would say 20 or more. And yes, i expect the loss to be that much. I think it will be a good reset moment for the team.

 

[visitingcock]

What point margin constitutes a blowout ?

20-ish points in the fourth quarter with the lead falling to as low as 12 points with the end-of-the-bench player on the court for the winner for about the last three/four minutes.

 

[Cornell Lt]

Current point spread is South Carolina -4.5 with an over/under of 125. I'll give the points and take SC at -4.5 and I'll take the over at 125.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I would say UConn's defense is better than their offense recently. They have the fourth best offense and forth best defense in the country in Massey ratings. I don't think their rebounding can keep up with South Carolina with Azzi and Caroline on the bench.