Is SCar at UConn threadworthy?

[hoopsnloops32]

Personally, I'm tired of the short rotation talking point. I get that it exists, but I'm not of the opinion that all is lost because of it.

Heck in Tennessee, they came close to faltering after the second quarter and turned it around in the second half of the game. We've seen teams in worse situations gut it out and play well.

I just don't think they'll have the legs to shoot, as evidenced by Villanova after Tennessee. I think the Villanova game is a better indication of how you can expect UConn to play offensively for the foreseeable future. Every shot was short from almost every player. And they have been pretty terrible on the boards recently so their defense can't save them either. I think they will win the rest of the regular season games and BET games this season with their front court until/If Azzi and/or CD comes back and then for the tournament they'll come back refreshed enough to be able to hit enough jumpers.

Even with 5 players this game would be more competitive in a month of so IMO. But its 5 players, plus being in the toughest stretch of the schedule, plus late January/Feb being the most fatiguing time of the season. Its just too much to overcome to compete with Sought Carolina IMO.

 

[dabears17]

I don’t totally understand the “80 points sitting on the bench” statement. UConn is scoring less points than they would with some of those players available, but by how many? They wouldn’t be scoring 160 points a game if those players were all available.

 

[CL82]

Personally, I'm tired of the short rotation talking point. I get that it exists, but I'm not of the opinion that all is lost because of it.

Heck in Tennessee, they came close to faltering after the second quarter and turned it around in the second half of the game. We've seen teams in worse situations gut it out and play well.

I don’t know if all is lost, but it’s a relevant observation. Yes, Connecticut has done phenomenally well with a short bench, but if you saw the Villanova game, it was readily apparent just have tired this team is. It definitely is a disadvantage for UConn. Now, it is a disadvantage that they have been able to compensate for against most opponents, but South Carolina is the defending champions and the top ranked team in the nation (I’m sure there’s a banner that says that somewhere). It is an impressively good team. With everyone healthy, the game was probably, at best, a coin flip. Without everyone healthy…

That doesn’t mean you don’t play the game, but it is an epic uphill climb for Connecticut.

 

[visitingcock]

Not me, particularly. I’m a big believer that the only game that matters is the next one, and the only ranking that matters is the last one.

I have to smile a little bit about your persistent enthusiasm about this game. Don’t get me wrong, I’m looking forward to it as well, but given that Connecticut has some thing approaching, maybe 80 points per game, maybe more, sitting on the bench unavailable to play and given that this current incarnation of the Gamecocks is actually being considered as the Phase 5 version of the Avengers for Marvel, my expectations for the game are somewhat dampened

We are hardly superheroes. Athletically, we are superb. But as far as skills, we are something less..

Our FT percentage, FG percentage and 3pt shooting percentage are barely above average, in some cases just average.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

The game will be as competitive as the rebounding margin. CT will have to play some zone...and should. Deberry and Patterson have to play some minutes, especially if there's no Fudd or Ducharme. I don't see a blowout. That is all.

 

[visitingcock]

I can set up a SC chat if there is interest.

Thank you for the offer, but I can't sit still during a game to participate in chats. Others may welcome the opportunity.

 

[hoopsfan22]

I don’t totally understand the “80 points sitting on the bench” statement. UConn is scoring less points than they would with some of those players available, but by how many? They wouldn’t be scoring 160 points a game if those players were all available.

I wonder this as well. Let's take Paige's 2020-21 average of 20.0 points per game, Azzi's 2022-23 average of 17.9 points per game, Ducharme's 2021-22 average of 9.8 points per game and you have 48 points per game currently sitting on the bench.

 

[visitingcock]

I wonder this as well. Let's take Paige's 2020-21 average of 20.0 points per game, Azzi's 2022-23 average of 17.9 points per game, Ducharme's 2021-22 average of 9.8 points per game and you have 48 points per game currently sitting on the bench.

Then, if you subtract out the scoring of their replacements . . .

You can't extrapolate that UConn would be scoring 160 points a game if they were playing

Anyway, UConn does have a load of talent out with injuries and would be much better with them playing. Hopefully they will all be back next year and will warrant a preseason #1 ranking, but the whole "points on the bench "is an infated way of saying "their scoring average could be higher" - not 48 or 80 points higher.

It will only take about 66 points to win this game. (my first prediction)

 

[CL82]

I wonder this as well. Let's take Paige's 2020-21 average of 20.0 points per game, Azzi's 2022-23 average of 17.9 points per game, Ducharme's 2021-22 average of 9.8 points per game and you have 48 points per game currently sitting on the bench.

Potato/potahto. Prior to the season, we know that Auriemma said that Paige was playing the best basketball of her career and had made a “huge leap” Azzi he’s capable of scoring in the 25 to 29 point range on any night. Think about last year’s Tennessee and Villanova games. We Ducharme go off in that same 24 to 29 range last season. And you appear to have forgotten about Ice Brady, who was expected to have a huge impact this season.

But, hey, if you want to use their averages, rather than the top of what they’re expected to contribute, that’s fine. Give us an additional “48 points” and I feel pretty confident we can beat anyone in the country.

 

[CL82]

Then, if you subtract out the scoring of their replacements . . .

You can't extrapolate that UConn would be scoring 160 points a game if they were playing

Anyway, UConn does have a load of talent out with injuries and would be much better with them playing. Hopefully they will all be back next year and will warrant a preseason #1 ranking, but the whole "points on the bench "is an infated way of saying "their scoring average could be higher" - not 48 or 80 points higher.

It will only take about 65 points to win this game. (my first prediction)

Lol, did anyone actually say that if everyone was healthy UConn would be scoring 160 points per game? I did say that we have the potential for 80 points sitting on the bench. I stand by that statement.

To suggest that losing Azzi Fudd, Paige Bueckers, Caroline Ducharme, and Ice Brady is somehow immaterial is, well, kind of insulting to those phenomenal players. It’s been a huge loss for this team. The fact that the rest of the team has worked exceptionally hard to remain competitive and speaks to their character, competitiveness, and talent, but the loss is still a huge one. But you know that.

 

[visitingcock]

Lol, did anyone actually say that if everyone was healthy UConn would be scoring 160 points per game? I did say that we have the potential for 80 points sitting on the bench. I stand by that statement.

To suggest that losing Azzi Fudd, Paige Bueckers, Caroline Ducharme, and Ice Brady is somehow immaterial is, well, kind of insulting to those phenomenal players. It’s been a huge loss for this team. The fact that the rest of the team has worked exceptionally hard to remain competitive and speaks to their character, competitiveness, and talent, but the loss is still a huge one. But you know that.

Yes, I do know that. LOL. I did not suggest it is immaterial. Indeed, I said UConn will be the preseason favorite when those stars return. The Huskys' scoring average would almost certainly be higher this year if they were available. But, some (not you) will throw the 48/60 points on the bench out there like their replacements don't make up for some of their lost points.

BTW are we certain that Azzi won't be available for at least some PT in this game. As I understand it, she's "day to day." could we see her loosen up with a few minutes tonight?

 

[hoopsfan22]

Then, if you subtract out the scoring of their replacements . . .

You can't extrapolate that UConn would be scoring 160 points a game if they were playing

Anyway, UConn does have a load of talent out with injuries and would be much better with them playing. Hopefully they will all be back next year and will warrant a preseason #1 ranking, but the whole "points on the bench "is an infated way of saying "their scoring average could be higher" - not 48 or 80 points higher.

It will only take about 66 points to win this game. (my first prediction)

The team averages 81 points per game. Even if you had everyone healthy and available it's not like they would have averaged 100 or even 90 points per game. To put it into perspective, the ridiculously loaded 2015-16 team (Stewie's last season) that some argue was not just the best UConn team ever but one of the best ever in the sport's history, averaged 88 points per game.

 

[Cornell Lt]

I imagine it will be a blow out, so not sure it's thready worthy.

What point margin constitutes a blowout ?

 

[Zanzman]

UConn is TIRED. THey have been playing a 5 player rotation the last two weeks and have more games than normal in the same time period because of the rescheduling. I think something like 5 games in 12 days. And those 5 players are banged up themselves and looking a bit gimpy as is. Plus, to match up well with South Carolina we need to exploit our advantage on the perimeter but thanks to injuries our backcourt is our weak point at the moment, specifically perimeter shooting.

So due to extreme fatigue the players are exhibiting and bad match up due to injuries, I don't see this game being interesting at all. Maybe it would be close with a healthy Azzi and CD but thats not a reality for next week so it is what it is.

 

[Dino]

Excited for this one too! I love women’s basketball! This year has been a special treat!

 

[hoopsnloops32]

What point margin constitutes a blowout ?

I would say 20 or more. And yes, i expect the loss to be that much. I think it will be a good reset moment for the team.

 

[visitingcock]

What point margin constitutes a blowout ?

20-ish points in the fourth quarter with the lead falling to as low as 12 points with the end-of-the-bench player on the court for the winner for about the last three/four minutes.

 

[Cornell Lt]

Current point spread is South Carolina -4.5 with an over/under of 125. I'll give the points and take SC at -4.5 and I'll take the over at 125.

 

[Huskiefan23]

The key is rebounding and turnovers. Also the way Uconn's offense and South Carolina's defense play matter as well. South Carolina's offense and Uconn's defense are both beatable.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

The key is rebounding and turnovers. Also the way Uconn's offense and South Carolina's defense play matter as well. South Carolina's offense and Uconn's defense are both beatable.

I would say UConn's defense is better than their offense recently. They have the fourth best offense and forth best defense in the country in Massey ratings. I don't think their rebounding can keep up with South Carolina with Azzi and Caroline on the bench.

 

[visitingcock]

I would say UConn's defense is better than their offense recently. They have the fourth best offense and forth best defense in the country in Massey ratings. I don't think their rebounding can keep up with South Carolina with Azzi and Caroline on the bench.

I don't understand Massey's ratings on offense an defense rank. Masseys ranks are not reflected in the Pt's scored and point given up rankings in NCAA stat. I guess the algorithm adjusts the stats with some kind of SOS application.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I don't understand Massey's ratings on offense an defense rank. Masseys ranks are not reflected in the Pt's scored and point given up rankings in NCAA stat. I guess the algorithm adjusts the stats with some kind of SOS application.

Points scored and given up is a very good indicator alone of defense and offensive ability. You need to adjust for pace. Its about the average point scored and allowed per possession, typically adjusted against SOS, but not sure if Massey adjusts for strength of schedule.

For example - say two teams gave up 30 points per game. You might think they are equal in defensive ability. But then you find out one team averages 15 defensive possession per game and one team averages 30 defensive possessions per game. Cleary one team is actually a much better defensive team than the other one is.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

I don’t totally understand the “80 points sitting on the bench” statement. UConn is scoring less points than they would with some of those players available, but by how many? They wouldn’t be scoring 160 points a game if those players were all available.

I don't take it as they would score 80 additional points in any given game. I take it as an indicator of what the opposition would be up against (theoretically) ...when facing the starting 5. Obviously, that wanes depending on a lot of factors...fouls, the ability to defend and rebound against the opponent, etc. As you sub with personnel who generally score less that 80 usually digresses, unless you have subs who can come close to sustaining that 80 threshold. And again, in general, if that 80 is represented by 5 players versus 2 or 3, the defense has to work a lot harder because you can't gamble on leaving people open.

 

[SCGamecock]

Lol, it will not be a blowout. Geno is throwing the kitchen sink at SC and I think Dawn will as well.. they both love this game and I think the fanbases do too. Hoping for a competitive matchup with a SC win.

 

[CL82]

Yes, I do know that. LOL. I did not suggest it is immaterial. Indeed, I said UConn will be the preseason favorite when those stars return. The Huskys' scoring average would almost certainly be higher this year if they were available. But, some (not you) will throw the 48/60 points on the bench out there like their replacements don't make up for some of their lost points.

BTW are we certain that Azzi won't be available for at least some PT in this game. As I understand it, she's "day to day." could we see her loosen up with a few minutes tonight?

My best guess is that she will not be, but even if she is having not played for so long, she is likely to be on a minutes limitation and have diminished effectiveness.

 

[CL82]

Lol, it will not be a blowout. Geno is throwing the kitchen sink at SC and I think Dawn will as well.. they both love this game and I think the fanbases do too. Hoping for a competitive matchup with a SC win.

If by “throwing the kitchen sink” you mean throwing everything he has, you would be correct. Of course given the severely depleted roster, it’s more like throwing the kitchen sponge in the kitchen sink.

 

[jpp13]

If UConn manages the same score as the title game I’ll be thrilled, I’m not shocked at something like 80-47 though. This group struggles with Providence we ain’t competing with SC.

 

[VA Huskie]

If we had Ducharme and Fudd, this would be a great game. Likely without either I think SC’s depth carrys the day. From what I’ve seen, SC’s vulnerable point can be scoring. While their average points is 80, they can play games where they score much fewer points than I would have expected. If that happens and UConn is able to play with energy (just watched the Providence game and the energy certainly isn’t back) it could be competitive. Bottom line I expect SC to win by 10-15 points.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

UConn won’t be able to compete this game. Edwards and Lou have hit a wall and no way can Nika and Dorka and Aubrey can carry the offense . I’m guess a loss by 20-30 if South Carolina comes out motivated. 15-20 if they come out slow.

 

[ConwayGmck]

An interesting comparison between both programs - in the last two recruiting classes, CT brought in:

'21) Azzi Fudd - out with injury
'21) Carolina Ducharme - out with injury
'21) Amari DeBerry - limited mpg
'21) Saylor Poffenbarger - transferred to Arkansas
'22) Ayanna Patterson - limited mpg
'22) Ice Brady - out with injury

While USC brought in:

'21) Raven Johnson - reserve who leads team in apg and spg
'21) Saniya Rivers - transferred to NC State
'21) Sania Feagin - missed some gms to injury, but has returned to active status
'21) Bree Hall - reserve
'22) Ashlyn Watkins - reserve
'22) Talaysia Cooper - reserve who is currently out with injury


In total, CT's players from the previous two classes have totaled roughly 940 total minutes of court time in 22 gms, for an average of 42.7 mpg, or 10-11 mpg for each of the 4 players that have actually seen court time this season. They have combined for 367 pts (16.7 ppg), 154 rebounds (7.0 rpg), 69 assists (3.1 apg), 26 blocks (1.2 bpg), and 27 steals (1.2 spg).

As for USC, the Gamecock's players from the previous two classes have totaled roughly 1,676 minutes of court time, which for 5 of the 6 still with the program and who have participated in games this season, is an average of 79.8 mpg, or an average of 16 mpg per player. They have combined for 473 pts (22.5 ppg), 250 rebounds (11.9 rpg), 109 assists (5.2 apg), 51 blocks (2.4 bpg), and 61 steals (2.9 spg).