None of us can be assured of the outcome from adding Cardoso to the roster. We would have been favorites to win the NC in Collier's/Samuelson's junior years, a team that also featured Williams, Nurse and Dangerfield, even without Stevens transferring in. When Stevens transferred in we became heavy favorites ... and we failed to win a NC.
Those in favor of Cardoso transferring in believe in a reductionist principle. She's one of the tallest players in the country with good skills and athleticism for her size. That makes her a good "part" and, in a reductionist approach, when you get the best "parts" you can that should produce a better team than one with fewer best "parts." Recent success with transfers into other programs provides fuel for this principle.
Those not in favor of Cardoso believe in a holistic principle. You want the whole to be greater than the sum of the parts, indeed, sometimes the whole can be less than the sum of the parts. What happened with Stevens and our own specific program provides fuel for this principle.
Let's first address how special the "part" is. Cambage is one of the two most intimidating post presences in the world. She has won precious little in terms of renowned championships. Ah, but this is a matter of not playing with other good parts you might say.
That leads us to the other most intimidating post presence, Griner. She has won one NCAA title, one WNBA title. Certainly by the time she was a junior in college she played with very good "parts," some might say by the time she was a sophomore. In the pros her teammate was Taurasi. Let's get back to that in a moment. Ah, but she was not playing for a coach like Auriemma. Considering Mulkey as won titles with three completely different rosters, the first one not heralded at all, undermines this aspersion, though there are still those that still cast it.
Well then, we certainly consider Auriemma a worthy coach. Wolters is the player in our history with the size of Cardoso. She even became a NPOY, but won only one title. In her freshman year she played with two other players who would become NPOYs; in her sophomore season she won the title playing with those two candidates plus a runner-up in Sales; in her junior year she played with Rizzotti and Sales; in her senior year she played with Sales and a precocious Ralph until she was injured in the tournament.
Looking back at Taurasi, the only year she did not win a NC was the year she played with a very accomplished and tall big, the 6'5" Schumacher who the year previous set a block record for a championship team. Four other of Taurasi's teammates as a freshman also played significant roles in a championship the year prior. The three years Taurasi won an NC was with 6'2" and 6'3" centers. While she has won 3 WNBA titles only one is with one of the two most imposing centers of the world.
As a special "part," an imposing big is not as special as everyone makes them out to be. The actual evidence makes that very clear. Ironically, if Cardoso is to make our team it will be due to the holistic principle, not the reductionist. She will have to fit in a way that enhances the team. Perhaps that will be true but: 1) there are some signs it may not be and 2) as I understand it we very much want Del Rosario to come and keep the "big" gravy train rolling. Maybe we can get both Cardoso and Del Rosario, but I'm betting the UConn program will prioritize the latter if it comes to a choice.