Handicapping the Final Four | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Handicapping the Final Four

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Baylor wins both games by 15 points and goes down as the greatest team in history at 40-0.

Or they lose....
 
doggydaddy said:
I totally disagree with some of your points.

Yes, no first team AA, but UConn had 5 double digit scorers in the last 2 games. Who do you shut down? Easier to shut down 1 player (although none of these teams is just one player).

Shortest bench? ND had only Achowa in their rotation. Looked like only a 6 player rotation for them. Stanford has only Greenfield and La Rocque off of their bench and they contribute only 6 points total. Baylor had only Condrey and Pope off their bench and they played only 19 minutes and scored 2 points between them. All 4 final four teams play 6-7 at the most.

Leadership? UConn starts 1 senior, 2 juniors. Baylor starts a soph in Sims to lead them. ND is very senior, but they've beaten them already. And Stanford? They start a freshman and 2 sophs. I don't see this as an issue at all or an advantage for any of the teams other than maybe ND.
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Plus Caroline is a quasi-senior in having 4 years of experience at UConn and has been oft-cited for her steadying effect in the minutes she gets. This is not a 2003 team with a game-mature junior star leading a very young group. UConn is playing standard 7 in big tourney games but can go reasonably confidently to as high as 9 with Buck getting minutes in a tough situation with Griner in an NC game, though it's very unlikely to happen. And with 4 players in double-digits ppg, 6 above 5.0, and 8 who have scored 13 points in at least one game this year, they do spread the wealth and the danger.
 
easttexastrash said:
Baylor wins both games by 15 points and goes down as the greatest team in history at 40-0.

Or they lose....
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I don't think that Baylor is the greatest team in history, I would venture that the 1999 Huskies before the injuries or the Tina-Maya-Renee edition would beat this year's Baylor team. The Tamika Catchings-Semeka Randall-Chamique Holdsclaw UT team was pretty amazing also.
 
DobbsRover2 said:
Plus Caroline is a quasi-senior in having 4 years of experience at UConn and has been oft-cited for her steadying effect in the minutes she gets. This is not a 2003 team with a game-mature junior star leading a very young group. UConn is playing standard 7 in big tourney games but can go reasonably confidently to as high as 9 with Buck getting minutes in a tough situation with Griner in an NC game, though it's very unlikely to happen. And with 4 players in double-digits ppg, 6 above 5.0, and 8 who have scored 13 points in at least one game this year, they do spread the wealth and the danger.
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It is hard for me to see UCONN playing more than 7 players, as will Baylor. Once you get past Stokes and KML I am not sure there will be much more in the way of bench performance.
 
sarals24 said:
I don't think that Baylor is the greatest team in history, I would venture that the 1999 Huskies before the injuries or the Tina-Maya-Renee edition would beat this year's Baylor team. The Tamika Catchings-Semeka Randall-Chamique Holdsclaw UT team was pretty amazing also.
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Sorry...that was very tongue in cheek. I agree that there have been teams with much more talent. The three "Meeks" were an incredibly talented team as were several of the UCONN teams.
 
sarals24 said:
I don't think that Baylor is the greatest team in history, I would venture that the 1999 Huskies before the injuries or the Tina-Maya-Renee edition would beat this year's Baylor team. The Tamika Catchings-Semeka Randall-Chamique Holdsclaw UT team was pretty amazing also.
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Or 2001 before the injuries to Svet and Shea.
 
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Not to be underestimated is the urgency that graduation provides, when it comes to NCAA tournament play.

ND is still pissed from last year, and they have a bunch of starters graduating. This is it for them, and they know they have at least a shot. One has only to think of Maya in last year's semi-final, taking it up to yet another level in an almost surreal bid to single-handedly pull out the W. Granted, Maya as a player and as a warrior is a cut above the rest, but in ND you have several players who are awfully talented, certainly tough, and are looking at one last opportunity. Just one.

The reason I feel this is so important is that games between the top 4 are really a separate beast this year. As Geno has pointed out numerous times, these are the games that show you how good you are (or aren't). It's great that we beat Kentucky, KSU, etc., but we smoked Duke last year, too. This year the Final Four is really the start of a new tournament. The things that separate wins from losses against the other top teams are the intangibles: guts, will, poise, and desire. In Spinal Tap fashion, these have to be set at 11, not just at 10, in order to get the win. Meaning there has to be something extra there at the margin. Despite Tiffany Hayes' impending graduation--and we all know Tiff will leave it ALL on the floor, no ifs ands or buts--I think ND has a little more to play for in this last-chance scenario when you go down their list of starters. That's why I think they will edge us out for the W and will go on to play Baylor in the final.
 
easttexastrash said:
Sorry...that was very tongue in cheek. I agree that there have been teams with much more talent. The three "Meeks" were an incredibly talented team as were several of the UCONN teams.
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Ahhh! It's hard to tell on message boards :) My friend and I have decided there needs to be a "sarcasm font" for email and texting so there is no confusion :)
 
easttexastrash said:
It is hard for me to see UCONN playing more than 7 players, as will Baylor. Once you get past Stokes and KML I am not sure there will be much more in the way of bench performance.
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Buck can play against Baylor in helping to guard Griner, but other than that, they will only go 7 deep.

Baylor is only playing 6 1/2 with Pope not gettting many minutes. What is up with Pope? She hurt?
 
The "X" factor in this tournament is: The referees and foul calls:

1. Baylor, if Griner they're out! If Sims gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat.
2. ND, if Diggins, Novosol or Peters gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat
3. CT, if Stefanie, Tiffany, Bria, KML or Kelly were to get into foul trouble the margin of error is very small.
4. Stamford if Nneka were to get into foul trouble Stanford is out.
 
This is going to be one of the best in a long time. 4 teams that are very well coached.

Stanford with the O'sisters againest Baylor. It will be interesting to see if Nneka can do what Tina did a few years back.

ND UCONN two pretty evenly matched teams. I do think UConn wins by +8 unless the refs turn the charges and jump into the opponets offensive fouls. Since the BE tourney UCOnn has gotten progressively better game by game.
 
Actually Nneka has an advantage...that is her clone will be in the paint working with her. One can draw Griner's attention dish to the other and between the two of them they can keep Griner off rhythm or pull her out of her perch in the paint. Tina had to do it by herself...the two "O" sisters can be an added advantage. The big question is who stops Griner's offense. I'm not sure that is too easily accomplished.

It goes back to what I said earlier in a thread that asked how do you stop Griner...I said you don't you stop Odyssy Sims. Stop her and prevent the ball from going into Griner. Once Griner gets it there isn't a whole lot anybody is going to be able to do.
 
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To me the O sisters and Griner will not decide this game. This game will be decided by guard play and I give Baylor a big advantage in that area. I think that Baylor's perimeter defense will do more to prevent the ball from get to Nneka and Chiney than Stanford's pressure will prevent the ball from getting to BG.

To me, Tennessee has more defense presence against Griner than almost anyone in the country. Baugh and Johnson did a splendid job on her. They really made her work for what she got.
 
If Nneka and Chiney guard Griner, who is tending to Williams? She tore GT a new one when left free to roam around on the weak side and put up 18 points. I will trade Williams 18 for whatever Chiney will score. It's easy to forget about Williams, but she has REALLY come on this year and offers great help to BG in the paint.

Also, make note that over the past 11 games Hayden is shooting 66% (14 of 21) from three point range. She has improved her shooting considerably during the last portion of the season. And Sims is money shooting the three ball under pressure.

Another side note...BG has 199 blocks on the season...the O sisters have 83 combined.
 
cferraro04 said:
The "X" factor in this tournament is: The referees and foul calls:

1. Baylor, if Griner they're out! If Sims gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat.
2. ND, if Diggins, Novosol or Peters gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat
3. CT, if Stefanie, Tiffany, Bria, KML or Kelly were to get into foul trouble the margin of error is very small.
4. Stamford if Nneka were to get into foul trouble Stanford is out.
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Basically if any of the best players on the floor get into foul trouble it will be difficult to win. I agree with that. They all need their stars on the court. And let's hope that they are so that we truly get to see who has the most talent and is the best team.
 
Bill In Georgia said:
OK ...
Baylor .... 7 in 10
Stamford 4 in 10
ND ... 3 in 10
UConn ... 2 in 10
Now if Baylor beats Stamford and UConn beats ND the odds go to
Baylor 6 in 10
UConn 4.5 in 10
Now if Stamford beats Baylor and UConn beats ND
(This is is crazy)
Stamford 5.5 in 10
UConn 5 in 10
In other words dead even ...the key game for UConn is ND...after ND they have a pretty good chance in a "Rebuilding Year" .... after ND it boils down to who out coaches who..???
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Doesn't that come to 16 chances in 10?
You should get a job in Washington.
 
Sonny44 said:
That wouldn't make them the greatest team in history.
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Like I said, that was tongue in cheek. I was hoping the "Or they lose..." part would indicate that. At times I am the only one who can detect my sarcasm. That explains why I am still single.
 
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As for UCONN and ND, this is soooooo hard for me to call. The UCONN posts cannot afford to pick up cheap fouls when the ND guards drive to the paint, which they are going to do a lot.

Hartely and Diggins will be an interesting matchup and either has the ability to take over a game, it will just depend on which one does it in this particular matchup.

This is mainly going to be about guard play and whose shooting is on that day. The teams are so evenly matched that it will come down to which team can shoot just a little bit better on a given day.
 
easttexastrash said:
To me the O sisters and Griner will not decide this game. This game will be decided by guard play and I give Baylor a big advantage in that area. I think that Baylor's perimeter defense will do more to prevent the ball from get to Nneka and Chiney than Stanford's pressure will prevent the ball from getting to BG.

To me, Tennessee has more defense presence against Griner than almost anyone in the country. Baugh and Johnson did a splendid job on her. They really made her work for what she got.
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I guess you missed this part of my post: "It goes back to what I said earlier in a thread that asked how do you stop Griner...I said you don't you stop Odyssy Sims. Stop her and prevent the ball from going into Griner. Once Griner gets it there isn't a whole lot anybody is going to be able to do."
 
easttexastrash said:
As for UCONN and ND, this is soooooo hard for me to call. The UCONN posts cannot afford to pick up cheap fouls when the ND guards drive to the paint, which they are going to do a lot.

Hartely and Diggins will be an interesting matchup and either has the ability to take over a game, it will just depend on which one does it in this particular matchup.

This is mainly going to be about guard play and whose shooting is on that day. The teams are so evenly matched that it will come down to which team can shoot just a little bit better on a given day.
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It isn't much of a stretch to say that the UConn vs ND match-up is about guard play since both UConn and ND play a 4 guard line-up.
 
Optimistic picks

ND v UConn - Refs do a credible job and ND is forced to limit the 'phyical' play and stop slapping and grabbing everything that moves. ND is still a tough team minus that advantage, but UConn wins by 4-6 pts in a well officiated game.

Stanford v Baylor - I really think people are vastly underestimating Stanford. I think they've grown a lot through the year. If NO stays out of foul trouble, she's easily the second best player in the country and can carry Stanford to a win

UConn v Stanford - UConn eeks past a tough Cardinal squad in one of the best championship games ever.

Pessimistic Picks -
ND vs UConn - Nd takes up residence on the line as ND relentlessly drives to the hoop and draws fouls. On the defensive end they're allowed to be as physical with Uconn as they were in South Bend. UConn loses a bit of composure and winds up losing by 10-15.

Stanford v Baylor - Griner dominates the middle and Baylor shoots the 3 ball well. Baylor ends up winning going away by 10 or so.

Baylor v ND - Can't even figure out what I would hope for here. I do think this is the most likely matchup. Have to think Baylor would be a slight favorite here. I would guess Baylor wins an ugly game by 4-6 points.
 
Interesting to see if the altitude is a factor regarding the teams that only go 7 deep.
 
cferraro04 said:
The "X" factor in this tournament is: The referees and foul calls:

1. Baylor, if Griner they're out! If Sims gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat.
2. ND, if Diggins, Novosol or Peters gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat
3. CT, if Stefanie, Tiffany, Bria, KML or Kelly were to get into foul trouble the margin of error is very small.
4. Stamford if Nneka were to get into foul trouble Stanford is out.
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In addition, even if the fouls are spread around, the number of times that ND gets to the line is key. If 12 FTAs or fewer, they are vulnerable; if 25+, they win.
 
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easttexastrash said:
Like I said, that was tongue in cheek. I was hoping the "Or they lose..." part would indicate that. At times I am the only one who can detect my sarcasm. That explains why I am still single.
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You just haven't seen enough of our New England gals yet.
 
easttexastrash said:
Sorry...that was very tongue in cheek. I agree that there have been teams with much more talent. The three "Meeks" were an incredibly talented team as were several of the UCONN teams.
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Most of us understood ETT. You're way too savvy to go "there!"
 
Baylor 45%
ND 26%
UConn 24%
stanford 5%

no disrespect intended to the Cardinal but they're not as good as the other three.
 
I really like all four teams, and thought, as did most of us, that this would be our FF. It's Baylor's to lose, but with these four horses in the race, anything could happen. It must be so exciting in Denver! How many of us are actually going? Atmosphere reports would be great when we get closer. So, I guess I better give my odds:

Baylor: 40
ND 25
UConn: 25
Card: 10
 
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