Handicapping the Final Four

[Icebear]

Handicapping, eh, well, hog tie Griner, call fouls on ND instead of for them, and allow only one Ogwumike on the floor at any one time. UConn is handicapped by being the only team without a first team All American.

How's that for handicaps.

 

[Icebear]

OK ...
Baylor .... 7 in 10
Stamford 4 in 10
ND ... 3 in 10
UConn ... 2 in 10
Now if Baylor beats Stamford and UConn beats ND the odds go to
Baylor 6 in 10
UConn 4.5 in 10
Now if Stamford beats Baylor and UConn beats ND
(This is is crazy)
Stamford 5.5 in 10
UConn 5 in 10
In other words dead even ...the key game for UConn is ND...after ND they have a pretty good chance in a "Rebuilding Year" .... after ND it boils down to who out coaches who..???

If we can't take StaMford, we are in trouble. They didn't even make it to the FF.

 

[rocky rococo]

With Natalie Novosel setting an all-division, both-gender record for FTAs and FTMs in a Final Four, ND squeaks out two <5 point victories en route to Muffett's second NC.

 

[doggydaddy]

Sadly, On paper Uconn, should be the least likely to win this (I hope I'm wrong) They are the only team without a first team All-American (translation - prime time very hard to defend with 1 player, go to player), the shortest bench (depth), and the fewest senior (leadership & experience) They got here, however, playing great team defense (should keep them in the game), and they do have players who if they can overcome their youth can take over a game (KML & Hartley). They shoot foul shots very well, and if they can get hot from behind the arc they will be very hard to play. They may also need help from someone like Kiah, Brianna, or maybe even Heather because ND & Baylor draw a lot of fouls. They have Geno which is an X factor. ND & Baylor should be favorites, but like last year that doesn't always happen.

I totally disagree with some of your points.

Yes, no first team AA, but UConn had 5 double digit scorers in the last 2 games. Who do you shut down? Easier to shut down 1 player (although none of these teams is just one player).

Shortest bench? ND had only Achowa in their rotation. Looked like only a 6 player rotation for them. Stanford has only Greenfield and La Rocque off of their bench and they contribute only 6 points total. Baylor had only Condrey and Pope off their bench and they played only 19 minutes and scored 2 points between them. All 4 final four teams play 6-7 at the most.

Leadership? UConn starts 1 senior, 2 juniors. Baylor starts a soph in Sims to lead them. ND is very senior, but they've beaten them already. And Stanford? They start a freshman and 2 sophs. I don't see this as an issue at all or an advantage for any of the teams other than maybe ND.

 

[Tonyc]

I like UConns chance alot. UConn has improved so much as a team and individually. First Kelly is now a double didget scorer. This season we are 1-2 againest ND. A couple of keys. ND can not leave Kelly open and double someone else. They will now have to play us straight up. Tiff and Caroline are handleing bringing up the ball taking pressure off Bria and KML. Kiah and BB are more effective and will see playtime from here on forward.

Keys to the ND game. Rebound and take charges. Novesel and Peters could be in foul trouble if we do. The other is to not let Diggin penetrate and put someone on McBride. Make Peters and Mallory beat you and I dont think they can.

In the end UConns defense will win out. There is none better. ND will have to come up with a different game plan now that Kelly is scoring. We have 6 legitimate threats to score now. This gives UConn has a huge advantage. Package that with Kiah being able to come in for Stef and ND IMO is at a disadvantage. UConn by 8+.

 

[easttexastrash]

Baylor wins both games by 15 points and goes down as the greatest team in history at 40-0.

Or they lose....

 

[DobbsRover2]

I totally disagree with some of your points.

Yes, no first team AA, but UConn had 5 double digit scorers in the last 2 games. Who do you shut down? Easier to shut down 1 player (although none of these teams is just one player).

Shortest bench? ND had only Achowa in their rotation. Looked like only a 6 player rotation for them. Stanford has only Greenfield and La Rocque off of their bench and they contribute only 6 points total. Baylor had only Condrey and Pope off their bench and they played only 19 minutes and scored 2 points between them. All 4 final four teams play 6-7 at the most.

Leadership? UConn starts 1 senior, 2 juniors. Baylor starts a soph in Sims to lead them. ND is very senior, but they've beaten them already. And Stanford? They start a freshman and 2 sophs. I don't see this as an issue at all or an advantage for any of the teams other than maybe ND.

Plus Caroline is a quasi-senior in having 4 years of experience at UConn and has been oft-cited for her steadying effect in the minutes she gets. This is not a 2003 team with a game-mature junior star leading a very young group. UConn is playing standard 7 in big tourney games but can go reasonably confidently to as high as 9 with Buck getting minutes in a tough situation with Griner in an NC game, though it's very unlikely to happen. And with 4 players in double-digits ppg, 6 above 5.0, and 8 who have scored 13 points in at least one game this year, they do spread the wealth and the danger.

 

[sarals24]

Baylor wins both games by 15 points and goes down as the greatest team in history at 40-0.

Or they lose....

I don't think that Baylor is the greatest team in history, I would venture that the 1999 Huskies before the injuries or the Tina-Maya-Renee edition would beat this year's Baylor team. The Tamika Catchings-Semeka Randall-Chamique Holdsclaw UT team was pretty amazing also.

 

[easttexastrash]

Plus Caroline is a quasi-senior in having 4 years of experience at UConn and has been oft-cited for her steadying effect in the minutes she gets. This is not a 2003 team with a game-mature junior star leading a very young group. UConn is playing standard 7 in big tourney games but can go reasonably confidently to as high as 9 with Buck getting minutes in a tough situation with Griner in an NC game, though it's very unlikely to happen. And with 4 players in double-digits ppg, 6 above 5.0, and 8 who have scored 13 points in at least one game this year, they do spread the wealth and the danger.

It is hard for me to see UCONN playing more than 7 players, as will Baylor. Once you get past Stokes and KML I am not sure there will be much more in the way of bench performance.

 

[easttexastrash]

I don't think that Baylor is the greatest team in history, I would venture that the 1999 Huskies before the injuries or the Tina-Maya-Renee edition would beat this year's Baylor team. The Tamika Catchings-Semeka Randall-Chamique Holdsclaw UT team was pretty amazing also.

Sorry...that was very tongue in cheek. I agree that there have been teams with much more talent. The three "Meeks" were an incredibly talented team as were several of the UCONN teams.

 

[Icebear]

I don't think that Baylor is the greatest team in history, I would venture that the 1999 Huskies before the injuries or the Tina-Maya-Renee edition would beat this year's Baylor team. The Tamika Catchings-Semeka Randall-Chamique Holdsclaw UT team was pretty amazing also.

Or 2001 before the injuries to Svet and Shea.

 

[VAMike23]

Not to be underestimated is the urgency that graduation provides, when it comes to NCAA tournament play.

ND is still pissed from last year, and they have a bunch of starters graduating. This is it for them, and they know they have at least a shot. One has only to think of Maya in last year's semi-final, taking it up to yet another level in an almost surreal bid to single-handedly pull out the W. Granted, Maya as a player and as a warrior is a cut above the rest, but in ND you have several players who are awfully talented, certainly tough, and are looking at one last opportunity. Just one.

The reason I feel this is so important is that games between the top 4 are really a separate beast this year. As Geno has pointed out numerous times, these are the games that show you how good you are (or aren't). It's great that we beat Kentucky, KSU, etc., but we smoked Duke last year, too. This year the Final Four is really the start of a new tournament. The things that separate wins from losses against the other top teams are the intangibles: guts, will, poise, and desire. In Spinal Tap fashion, these have to be set at 11, not just at 10, in order to get the win. Meaning there has to be something extra there at the margin. Despite Tiffany Hayes' impending graduation--and we all know Tiff will leave it ALL on the floor, no ifs ands or buts--I think ND has a little more to play for in this last-chance scenario when you go down their list of starters. That's why I think they will edge us out for the W and will go on to play Baylor in the final.

 

[sarals24]

Sorry...that was very tongue in cheek. I agree that there have been teams with much more talent. The three "Meeks" were an incredibly talented team as were several of the UCONN teams.

Ahhh! It's hard to tell on message boards My friend and I have decided there needs to be a "sarcasm font" for email and texting so there is no confusion

 

[doggydaddy]

It is hard for me to see UCONN playing more than 7 players, as will Baylor. Once you get past Stokes and KML I am not sure there will be much more in the way of bench performance.

Buck can play against Baylor in helping to guard Griner, but other than that, they will only go 7 deep.

Baylor is only playing 6 1/2 with Pope not gettting many minutes. What is up with Pope? She hurt?

 

[cferraro04]

The "X" factor in this tournament is: The referees and foul calls:

1. Baylor, if Griner they're out! If Sims gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat.
2. ND, if Diggins, Novosol or Peters gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat
3. CT, if Stefanie, Tiffany, Bria, KML or Kelly were to get into foul trouble the margin of error is very small.
4. Stamford if Nneka were to get into foul trouble Stanford is out.

 

[Tonyc]

This is going to be one of the best in a long time. 4 teams that are very well coached.

Stanford with the O'sisters againest Baylor. It will be interesting to see if Nneka can do what Tina did a few years back.

ND UCONN two pretty evenly matched teams. I do think UConn wins by +8 unless the refs turn the charges and jump into the opponets offensive fouls. Since the BE tourney UCOnn has gotten progressively better game by game.

 

[cferraro04]

Actually Nneka has an advantage...that is her clone will be in the paint working with her. One can draw Griner's attention dish to the other and between the two of them they can keep Griner off rhythm or pull her out of her perch in the paint. Tina had to do it by herself...the two "O" sisters can be an added advantage. The big question is who stops Griner's offense. I'm not sure that is too easily accomplished.

It goes back to what I said earlier in a thread that asked how do you stop Griner...I said you don't you stop Odyssy Sims. Stop her and prevent the ball from going into Griner. Once Griner gets it there isn't a whole lot anybody is going to be able to do.

 

[easttexastrash]

To me the O sisters and Griner will not decide this game. This game will be decided by guard play and I give Baylor a big advantage in that area. I think that Baylor's perimeter defense will do more to prevent the ball from get to Nneka and Chiney than Stanford's pressure will prevent the ball from getting to BG.

To me, Tennessee has more defense presence against Griner than almost anyone in the country. Baugh and Johnson did a splendid job on her. They really made her work for what she got.

 

[easttexastrash]

If Nneka and Chiney guard Griner, who is tending to Williams? She tore GT a new one when left free to roam around on the weak side and put up 18 points. I will trade Williams 18 for whatever Chiney will score. It's easy to forget about Williams, but she has REALLY come on this year and offers great help to BG in the paint.

Also, make note that over the past 11 games Hayden is shooting 66% (14 of 21) from three point range. She has improved her shooting considerably during the last portion of the season. And Sims is money shooting the three ball under pressure.

Another side note...BG has 199 blocks on the season...the O sisters have 83 combined.

 

[easttexastrash]

The "X" factor in this tournament is: The referees and foul calls:

1. Baylor, if Griner they're out! If Sims gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat.
2. ND, if Diggins, Novosol or Peters gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat
3. CT, if Stefanie, Tiffany, Bria, KML or Kelly were to get into foul trouble the margin of error is very small.
4. Stamford if Nneka were to get into foul trouble Stanford is out.

Basically if any of the best players on the floor get into foul trouble it will be difficult to win. I agree with that. They all need their stars on the court. And let's hope that they are so that we truly get to see who has the most talent and is the best team.

 

[Sonny44]

OK ...
Baylor .... 7 in 10
Stamford 4 in 10
ND ... 3 in 10
UConn ... 2 in 10
Now if Baylor beats Stamford and UConn beats ND the odds go to
Baylor 6 in 10
UConn 4.5 in 10
Now if Stamford beats Baylor and UConn beats ND
(This is is crazy)
Stamford 5.5 in 10
UConn 5 in 10
In other words dead even ...the key game for UConn is ND...after ND they have a pretty good chance in a "Rebuilding Year" .... after ND it boils down to who out coaches who..???

Doesn't that come to 16 chances in 10?
You should get a job in Washington.

 

[Sonny44]

Baylor wins both games by 15 points and goes down as the greatest team in history at 40-0.

Or they lose....

That wouldn't make them the greatest team in history.

 

[easttexastrash]

That wouldn't make them the greatest team in history.

Like I said, that was tongue in cheek. I was hoping the "Or they lose..." part would indicate that. At times I am the only one who can detect my sarcasm. That explains why I am still single.

 

[easttexastrash]

As for UCONN and ND, this is soooooo hard for me to call. The UCONN posts cannot afford to pick up cheap fouls when the ND guards drive to the paint, which they are going to do a lot.

Hartely and Diggins will be an interesting matchup and either has the ability to take over a game, it will just depend on which one does it in this particular matchup.

This is mainly going to be about guard play and whose shooting is on that day. The teams are so evenly matched that it will come down to which team can shoot just a little bit better on a given day.

 

[cferraro04]

To me the O sisters and Griner will not decide this game. This game will be decided by guard play and I give Baylor a big advantage in that area. I think that Baylor's perimeter defense will do more to prevent the ball from get to Nneka and Chiney than Stanford's pressure will prevent the ball from getting to BG.

To me, Tennessee has more defense presence against Griner than almost anyone in the country. Baugh and Johnson did a splendid job on her. They really made her work for what she got.

I guess you missed this part of my post: "It goes back to what I said earlier in a thread that asked how do you stop Griner...I said you don't you stop Odyssy Sims. Stop her and prevent the ball from going into Griner. Once Griner gets it there isn't a whole lot anybody is going to be able to do."