Handicapping the Final Four

[cferraro04]

As for UCONN and ND, this is soooooo hard for me to call. The UCONN posts cannot afford to pick up cheap fouls when the ND guards drive to the paint, which they are going to do a lot.

Hartely and Diggins will be an interesting matchup and either has the ability to take over a game, it will just depend on which one does it in this particular matchup.

This is mainly going to be about guard play and whose shooting is on that day. The teams are so evenly matched that it will come down to which team can shoot just a little bit better on a given day.

It isn't much of a stretch to say that the UConn vs ND match-up is about guard play since both UConn and ND play a 4 guard line-up.

 

[SWHuskyFan]

Optimistic picks

ND v UConn - Refs do a credible job and ND is forced to limit the 'phyical' play and stop slapping and grabbing everything that moves. ND is still a tough team minus that advantage, but UConn wins by 4-6 pts in a well officiated game.

Stanford v Baylor - I really think people are vastly underestimating Stanford. I think they've grown a lot through the year. If NO stays out of foul trouble, she's easily the second best player in the country and can carry Stanford to a win

UConn v Stanford - UConn eeks past a tough Cardinal squad in one of the best championship games ever.

Pessimistic Picks -
ND vs UConn - Nd takes up residence on the line as ND relentlessly drives to the hoop and draws fouls. On the defensive end they're allowed to be as physical with Uconn as they were in South Bend. UConn loses a bit of composure and winds up losing by 10-15.

Stanford v Baylor - Griner dominates the middle and Baylor shoots the 3 ball well. Baylor ends up winning going away by 10 or so.

Baylor v ND - Can't even figure out what I would hope for here. I do think this is the most likely matchup. Have to think Baylor would be a slight favorite here. I would guess Baylor wins an ugly game by 4-6 points.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Interesting to see if the altitude is a factor regarding the teams that only go 7 deep.

 

[MilfordHusky]

The "X" factor in this tournament is: The referees and foul calls:

1. Baylor, if Griner they're out! If Sims gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat.
2. ND, if Diggins, Novosol or Peters gets into foul trouble it could spell defeat
3. CT, if Stefanie, Tiffany, Bria, KML or Kelly were to get into foul trouble the margin of error is very small.
4. Stamford if Nneka were to get into foul trouble Stanford is out.

In addition, even if the fouls are spread around, the number of times that ND gets to the line is key. If 12 FTAs or fewer, they are vulnerable; if 25+, they win.

 

[Sonny44]

Like I said, that was tongue in cheek. I was hoping the "Or they lose..." part would indicate that. At times I am the only one who can detect my sarcasm. That explains why I am still single.

You just haven't seen enough of our New England gals yet.

 

[Vowelguy]

Baylor 60%
ND 20%
UCONN 15%
Stanford 5%

I might lower Baylor a bit, but largely agree - been saying for a while that this is Baylor's to lose.

 

[Sonny44]

I might lower Baylor a bit, but largely agree - been saying for a while that this is Baylor's to lose.

May they go right ahead and do so then.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Sorry...that was very tongue in cheek. I agree that there have been teams with much more talent. The three "Meeks" were an incredibly talented team as were several of the UCONN teams.

Most of us understood ETT. You're way too savvy to go "there!"

 

[Suebird10fan]

Baylor 45%
ND 26%
UConn 24%
stanford 5%

no disrespect intended to the Cardinal but they're not as good as the other three.

 

[semper]

I really like all four teams, and thought, as did most of us, that this would be our FF. It's Baylor's to lose, but with these four horses in the race, anything could happen. It must be so exciting in Denver! How many of us are actually going? Atmosphere reports would be great when we get closer. So, I guess I better give my odds:

Baylor: 40
ND 25
UConn: 25
Card: 10

 

[msf22b]

VAMike's points are interesting but I think the effect points the other way. I suspect the potential of tightness, perhaps even desperation in Notre Dame's play, especially if the refs whistle a charge or two on their celebrated guards.
Interesting, only a few weeks ago, I was promoting ND's toughness and unity. It's still there but perhaps has not developed further (the loss to UCONN undoubtedly was a blow to their confidence) while we all understand and are astonished at the seeming "make-over" of the Husky mentality in the interim. The likelihood of a UCONN solid win on Sunday is a reasonable prognostication

 

[asuwish]

I totally disagree with some of your points.

Yes, no first team AA, but UConn had 5 double digit scorers in the last 2 games. Who do you shut down? Easier to shut down 1 player (although none of these teams is just one player).

Shortest bench? ND had only Achowa in their rotation. Looked like only a 6 player rotation for them. Stanford has only Greenfield and La Rocque off of their bench and they contribute only 6 points total. Baylor had only Condrey and Pope off their bench and they played only 19 minutes and scored 2 points between them. All 4 final four teams play 6-7 at the most.

Leadership? UConn starts 1 senior, 2 juniors. Baylor starts a soph in Sims to lead them. ND is very senior, but they've beaten them already. And Stanford? They start a freshman and 2 sophs. I don't see this as an issue at all or an advantage for any of the teams other than maybe ND.

Then you must disagree with Geno as well who has said Uconn doesn't have a go to player in crunch time like the others do. Yes, having multiple scorers is great (we are here for a reason), but at crunch time who do you draw the play up for that you count on? Last year we had Maya, Baylor has Griner, we don't have that 1 player who can dominate and take over a game. Our bench is not the shortest, but really only 2 players, a third if Brianna gets in and they are ALL freshman and nobody knows what they will give you (remember DT's freshman final four when she couldn't buy a hoop in the second half). Geno said before the season he didn't think they would win it this year but may not lose a game the next 2. Looking at the other teams I think they are the least likely to win it. Having said this they are playing with house money and will not go down easily. Any of these teams can put together 2 great games in a row and take this.

 

[Icebear]

Then you must disagree with Geno as well who has said Uconn doesn't have a go to player in crunch time like the others do. Yes, having multiple scorers is great (we are here for a reason), but at crunch time who do you draw the play up for that you count on? Last year we had Maya, Baylor has Griner, we don't have that 1 player who can dominate and take over a game. Our bench is not the shortest, but really only 2 players, a third if Brianna gets in and they are ALL freshman and nobody knows what they will give you (remember DT's freshman final four when she couldn't buy a hoop in the second half). Geno said before the season he didn't think they would win it this year but may not lose a game the next 2. Looking at the other teams I think they are the least likely to win it. Having said this they are playing with house money and will not go down easily. Any of these teams can put together 2 great games in a row and take this.

It is easy. You send Kelly long and have Tiff hit with "da Bomb!"

 

[doggydaddy]

Then you must disagree with Geno as well who has said Uconn doesn't have a go to player in crunch time like the others do. Yes, having multiple scorers is great (we are here for a reason), but at crunch time who do you draw the play up for that you count on? Last year we had Maya, Baylor has Griner, we don't have that 1 player who can dominate and take over a game. Our bench is not the shortest, but really only 2 players, a third if Brianna gets in and they are ALL freshman and nobody knows what they will give you (remember DT's freshman final four when she couldn't buy a hoop in the second half). Geno said before the season he didn't think they would win it this year but may not lose a game the next 2. Looking at the other teams I think they are the least likely to win it. Having said this they are playing with house money and will not go down easily. Any of these teams can put together 2 great games in a row and take this.

You said "They are the only team without a first team All-American (translation - prime time very hard to defend with 1 player, go to player)"

I've seen several players step up at crunch time. Harley, Hayes, Lewis. No, we don't have a Griner, but you can still win with several players there to do what needs to be done. You really think that Hartley is THAT much worse than Sims or Diggins? UConn doesn't need ONE player to do it, they have several options. It's a double edges sword as well. IF that ONE player gets shut down, then what? I prefer a team of possible go to players.

You said " the shortest bench (depth)"

It's not true. They are as short as any of the teams in numbers. But with Lewis and Stokes, they have the best bench. THE BEST of the 4 teams left.

When Geno said what he did about the teams chances, he said that before the last 7 games. I doubt he has the same opinion now.

 

[easttexastrash]

If Baylor were to win, I am not sure which team I would prefer to face. ND has so much experience but UCONN has Geno. He knows how to get a team ready to win a championship.

ND was a bit flat in the BET championship game. They did not come out with the fire that I expected to see, but I can't imagine that would happen a second time.

 

[Sonny44]

Then you must disagree with Geno as well who has said Uconn doesn't have a go to player in crunch time like the others do. Yes, having multiple scorers is great (we are here for a reason), but at crunch time who do you draw the play up for that you count on? Last year we had Maya, Baylor has Griner, we don't have that 1 player who can dominate and take over a game. Our bench is not the shortest, but really only 2 players, a third if Brianna gets in and they are ALL freshman and nobody knows what they will give you (remember DT's freshman final four when she couldn't buy a hoop in the second half). Geno said before the season he didn't think they would win it this year but may not lose a game the next 2. Looking at the other teams I think they are the least likely to win it. Having said this they are playing with house money and will not go down easily. Any of these teams can put together 2 great games in a row and take this.

It's not like we don't have a star. It's just that we don't know who it's going to be on any given night.