Handicapping Notre Dame

[Scotter]

This year's Notre Dame lost 3 starters to graduation, hasn't played particularly well yet, and is still comfortably 4th in the Sagarin rankings. Is this team as deep and talented as the last two seasons'? Of course not, but it is still a heck of a lot more talented than past Notre Dame teams outside of the last couple of years even during the Riley years.

Do circumstances need to lineup for ND to competitive at the end of a game with UConn? Of course. That's also true of every other team in WCBB outsidie of Baylor. and potential Duke although that is still unrealized potential at this point. Based on talent alone UConn should have won every game it has ever played against ND in the last 20 years, and yet Muffet has won games unlike so many other coaches and done so in years where UConn has had national championship caliber teams. UConn should be a double digit favorite in every game against ND this season and ND shouldn't be considered anything more than a Final Four contender, but it is reasonable to acknowledge that ND is still one of the best teams in the country and plays UConn as well as any program ever has. I don't see anyone doing anything more than that.

 

[Icebear]

I think the best way to handicap ND is to tie their legs together and one hand behind their backs.

 

[pinotbear]

or, we could do it the traditional way - make 'em run with some little dude (or dudette), wearing silks & goggles, sittin' on their shoulders, and hitting them with a stick. Seeing as how this is a big time match, and we're talking fillies, the weight allowance ought to be, say, 121 pounds?

 

[msf22b]

“I think it is kind of like when Maya (Moore) graduated and other players step up and make some contributions,” UConn coach Geno Auriemma said. “When freshmen step in like Stefanie (Dolson) and Bria (Hartley) did as freshman, when they step into your program and have to play a lot, they surprise you with the number of things they can do and do well.

“Natalie (Achonwa) got a lot of experience playing in the Olympics (for Canada). She is a lot better than she was two years ago and it better than she was last year. Jewell Loyd has really made a huge difference on their team. She is one of the best freshmen in the country in my mind and she has added an awful lot because Notre Dame did lose a lot obviously. Everybody knew that McBride is a great player in high school and played great for them during their run (to the Final Four) so they have a lot of pieces in place. Their depth is going to depend on how well their freshmen keep improving but I am not surprised.

Geno as quoted by Jim Fuller

He seems a lot more admiring of Notre Dame's prowess than some of our membership.

 

[doggydaddy]

“I think it is kind of like when Maya (Moore) graduated and other players step up and make some contributions,” UConn coach Geno Auriemma said. “When freshmen step in like Stefanie (Dolson) and Bria (Hartley) did as freshman, when they step into your program and have to play a lot, they surprise you with the number of things they can do and do well.

“Natalie (Achonwa) got a lot of experience playing in the Olympics (for Canada). She is a lot better than she was two years ago and it better than she was last year. Jewell Loyd has really made a huge difference on their team. She is one of the best freshmen in the country in my mind and she has added an awful lot because Notre Dame did lose a lot obviously. Everybody knew that McBride is a great player in high school and played great for them during their run (to the Final Four) so they have a lot of pieces in place. Their depth is going to depend on how well their freshmen keep improving but I am not surprised.

Geno as quoted by Jim Fuller

He seems a lot more admiring of Notre Dame's prowess than some of our membership.

Seriously? What is he supposed to say? That they lost 3 big cogs to the wheel that ran over UConn 4 of the last 5 games? That Loyd is a freshman that has never seen defense like this? That Diggins is shoot the worst of her career?

Geno always pumps up the opponent.

 

[HGN]

ND is no pushover , however , I do think UConn wins. Handily. We ONLY loss Tiffany from a great squad. ND loss Peters and Novosel from a good squad. That will hurt ND on the board and from the field. They gained Loyd and Mabrey ; we gained Stewie , Tuck , and MoJeff . Big edge to UConn.

McBride concerns me because she seems to get away with a lot of physical play and fouling. If she gets away with it on Saturday it could be a problem for Stewie and KML. If not , edge goes to UConn.

Conclusion , good game but UConn wins.

 

[Husky68]

Ah...so you are the one Geno was talking about. Got it.

Hmmmm, Geno seems to have finally gotten it right about Hartley not performing. I guess if Geno sits her its ok now to wonder why she can't dribble and is so weak with the ball. Doty seems to have gotten the message against Oregon, will see how that continues.
Unlike you "copy whatever Geno says" crew members, some of us actually see what is going on in the games and comment on it, even if Geno hasn't given his blessing by also doing/saying something about it, YET.

 

[CONNFAN23]

Hmmmm, Geno seems to have finally gotten it right about Hartley not performing. I guess if Geno sits her its ok now to wonder why she can't dribble and is so weak with the ball. Doty seems to have gotten the message against Oregon, will see how that continues.
Unlike you "copy whatever Geno says" crew members, some of us actually see what is going on in the games and comment on it, even if Geno hasn't given his blessing by also doing/saying something about it, YET.

She is an ALL AMERICAN for God Sakes man. Trust me Geno has forgotten more about womens basketball than you will ever know so I think he has and will continue to start her.

 

[Tonyc]

IMO Hartley was sent a message in a game that we would win anyway. The message what ever it was is ND is coming to town and we need you. We might never know the truth because the coaches dont want us to know. Againest Stanford Bria had 10 pt, 5 reb, 3 asst, 2to, 1 steal in 38 mins. Not bad. So why did she sit with those numbers? Had to be decisionmaking or she needed rest. But again we dont know. If she dosn play on Saturday then we will know. I would expect her to explode againest ND infront of a sell out crowd.

As far as ND. They shoot poorly from trey range just like Stanford and Baylor. ND dosnt have the height to compete with us inside. You can be sure theyre going to dribble drive and jump into Stef and Breanna and you can be sure we will be taking charges. So how will they score againest us? From deep outside and trying to get transition going. Thats all they can do. I think our defense will have something to say about they passing the ball.

ND is not a push over but theyre not what they were not even close to last season. I really like our chances alot. I think we make life tuff for Lloyd and McBride and Diggins will have to carry the load which she hasnt done well this season. UCOnn by 20+

 

[OneTrickPony]

If Bria comes up short, I'd like to know compared to whom...?

 

[Icebear]

Anyone 5'10" or taller.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Anyone 5'10" or taller.

Ice, you know that String Theory (Particle Physics) posits the existence of 6 or 7 unseen physical dimensions in addition to the 3 spatial dimensions and time. My theory is that, in at least one of these dimensions, Bria is at the high end of the height distribution...

 

[Icebear]

I used string theory and chaos theory in my Christmas Eve sermon: the power of the unseen and the power of small things.

 

[Biff]

I used string theory and chaos theory in my Christmas Eve sermon: the power of the unseen and the power of small things.

Christmas String chaos theory

 

[OneTrickPony]

I used string theory and chaos theory in my Christmas Eve sermon: the power of the unseen and the power of small things.

You are definitely not the average bear...

 

[easttexastrash]

IMO Hartley was sent a message in a game that we would win anyway. The message what ever it was is ND is coming to town and we need you. We might never know the truth because the coaches dont want us to know. Againest Stanford Bria had 10 pt, 5 reb, 3 asst, 2to, 1 steal in 38 mins. Not bad. So why did she sit with those numbers? Had to be decisionmaking or she needed rest. But again we dont know. If she dosn play on Saturday then we will know. I would expect her to explode againest ND infront of a sell out crowd.

As far as ND. They shoot poorly from trey range just like Stanford and Baylor. ND dosnt have the height to compete with us inside. You can be sure theyre going to dribble drive and jump into Stef and Breanna and you can be sure we will be taking charges. So how will they score againest us? From deep outside and trying to get transition going. Thats all they can do. I think our defense will have something to say about they passing the ball.

ND is not a push over but theyre not what they were not even close to last season. I really like our chances alot. I think we make life tuff for Lloyd and McBride and Diggins will have to carry the load which she hasnt done well this season. UCOnn by 20+

Minus the Stanford game, which was a complete anomoly at 14%, Baylor is shooting 39% for the year from three point range, not that far behind UCONN's 40%.

 

[Vowelguy]

Geno as quoted by Jim Fuller

He seems a lot more admiring of Notre Dame's prowess than some of our membership.

It is possible to think ND is good but also think that UConn will win handily.

UConn 77-52.

 

[magical2]

Minus the Stanford game, which was a complete anomoly at 14%, Baylor is shooting 39% for the year from three point range, not that far behind UCONN's 40%.

Do we get to eliminate a game also? I have to check which game we shot pooly from 3 pt land!
someone will probably provide stats before I do!
Ira
Well if we eliminate a 12-40 game or a 6-24 against ST our % goes up! Also your total 3pt shots per game are much less than our's! Which would make a comparison of %s close to comparing apples and oranges We are in top 5 Nationally you are not in the top 50
We have taken 276 shots in 12 games you have taken 109 in 11 games! Without eliminating any games we are at .402 you are at .339 Jusy sayin
Ira

 

[doggydaddy]

Minus the Stanford game, which was a complete anomoly at 14%, Baylor is shooting 39% for the year from three point range, not that far behind UCONN's 40%.

I wish that Uconn had this stat page.

Game by Game for Baylor

You will note the 9-15 game. Now THAT is an anomoly. And the 5-7 the game before.

That's 14-22 for 2 games.

Take that away and Bayor is shooting 26.4%.

They have 7 games of under their season average and 4 games better.

The reality is that Baylor is shooting 33.9% for the season. And that is being generous as they are 1-6 to start tonights game.

 

[Tonyc]

I wish that Uconn had this stat page.

Game by Game for Baylor

You will note the 9-15 game. Now THAT is an anomoly. And the 5-7 the game before.

That's 14-22 for 2 games.

Take that away and Bayor is shooting 26.4%.

They have 7 games of under their season average and 4 games better.

The reality is that Baylor is shooting 33.9% for the season. And that is being generous as they are 1-6 to start tonights game.

Doggy if you look at Baylor games againest top teams its alot worse then 26%. Bottom line we should be fine if we shaddow them from 3 pt range. I am looking forward to seeing Stef and Breanna go up againest Griner. That will be their biggest test.

The biggest difference is we have KML who is shooting over 50% from trey and she had a tummy virus the last 2 games.

 

[Vowelguy]

Minus the Stanford game, which was a complete anomoly at 14%, Baylor is shooting 39% for the year from three point range, not that far behind UCONN's 40%.

Against Baylor's four ranked opponents this year, they were 0-3 / 2-14 / 1-8 / 5-14 from 3-point range [21%]. In their other somewhat close game (UT-Martin), they were 5-7. [13-46/28%]

In UConn's 5 games against ranked opponents, it is 7-16 / 7-19 / 5-15 / 5-19 / 6-24 [30-93/32%]

 

[easttexastrash]

I like the fact that Baylor does not rely on the 3 pointer. UCONN Is obviously a much better three point shooting team, especially KML. Baylor's two best shooters, although the stats don't reflect it yet, are Sims and Prince. I am not as concerned about the % of the rest of the team as I am about the fact that Mulkey continues to give sub-par shooters the green light. IMO, Baylor should shoot no more than 5 a game.

Three point shots become harder to make at the end of the game when players are on tired legs. Baylor is also very good at defending the three ball.

 

[doggydaddy]

I like the fact that Baylor does not rely on the 3 pointer. UCONN Is obviously a much better three point shooting team, especially KML. Baylor's two best shooters, although the stats don't reflect it yet, are Sims and Prince. I am not as concerned about the % of the rest of the team as I am about the fact that Mulkey continues to give sub-par shooters the green light. IMO, Baylor should shoot no more than 5 a game.

Three point shots become harder to make at the end of the game when players are on tired legs. Baylor is also very good at defending the three ball.

They don't rely on it because they suck at it. They were 3-12 tonight. Another anomoly?

ETT - " UCONN Is obviously a much better three point shooting team, "

Translation - "You destroyed my attempt in removing one bad shooting game to make Baylor look as good as UConn in 3 point shooting"

 

[easttexastrash]

They don't rely on it because they suck at it. They were 3-12 tonight. Another anomoly?

ETT - " UCONN Is obviously a much better three point shooting team, "

Translation - "You destroyed my attempt in removing one bad shooting game to make Baylor look as good as UConn in 3 point shooting"

They don't rely in it because they have the best center in the history of WCBB. However, yes, I admit that I was wrong. They typically do suck at it.

In almost any night I will take Griner getting shots in the paint over any other team taking lots of contested three pointers.

 

[speedoo]

They don't rely in it because they have the best center in the history of WCBB. However, yes, I admit that I was wrong. They typically do suck at it.

In almost any night I will take Griner getting shots in the paint over any other team taking lots of contested three pointers.

Griner played 32 minutes tonight in an easy win. I thought Mulkey was going to reduce her minutes for some health related reason?. Any reason she could not have played say 25 minutes?

And are trying to say that Baylor is bad at three point shooting because they have Griner? What happens next year and beyond?

 

[doggydaddy]

They don't rely in it because they have the best center in the history of WCBB. However, yes, I admit that I was wrong. They typically do suck at it.

In almost any night I will take Griner getting shots in the paint over any other team taking lots of contested three pointers.

Well, Uconn hits around 40%. Their 111 made 3 pointers at 40% is the equivelent of 60% shooting on 2's.

With the way UConn whips the ball around the perimeter, drives and dishes, and plays inside-out, they get many open looks.

Griner in the paint and Uconn with 3 pointers. Both are effective.

UConn/Baylor will be decided by the team playing the best defense.

 

[easttexastrash]

Now, lets discuss 3pt FG defense. Baylor limits its opponents to 23.8% compared to UCONN's 31%. The differential between FG% shot and FG% allowed is slightly in Baylor's favor unless my math is wrong, which is possible.

 

[easttexastrash]

Griner played 32 minutes tonight in an easy win. I thought Mulkey was going to reduce her minutes for some health related reason?. Any reason she could not have played say 25 minutes?

And are trying to say that Baylor is bad at three point shooting because they have Griner? What happens next year and beyond?

LOL. I said nothing close to that. I said that they don't rely on the three because they have the most effective scoring center in the history of WCBB. Why jack up a bunch of 3s when you have two post players (Griner and Pope) who are shooting over 60% from the floor?

 

[speedoo]

LOL. I said nothing close to that. I said that they don't rely on the three because they have the most effective scoring center in the history of WCBB. Why jack up a bunch of 3s when you have two post players (Griner and Pope) who are shooting over 60% from the floor?

OK, but I note that you still have not answered my other questions.

 

[easttexastrash]

OK, but I note that you still have not answered my other questions.

Mulkey typically plays her starters extended minutes in conference. BG, who BTW had a nice little dunk tonight, will probably continue to average 30+ minutes a game. If the legs were a concern Mulkey would rest her more.

As far a next year, I refuse to think about that. (-: