Handicapping Notre Dame | Page 2 | The Boneyard
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Handicapping Notre Dame

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msf22b said:
What does this all mean...I'm not really certain, except that Muffit can (and will) play 10 or 11 players all with some scoring potential, seemingly quicker and more athletic than Stanford.
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In the Baylor game the Irish starters played 39, 36, 35, 32 & 22 minutes. Wright was the only bench player to log > 10 mins. (20)
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pap49cba said:
Muffet has proved she can coach against Geno and Uconn. This will be a much tougher game than most of us imagined back in October.
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I do like Muffet but it seems that her biggest success with UConn has been to have the referee's in her pocket, allowing her previous two teams to plow out of control up the middle throwing up random shots and then be blessed for it by shooting countless foul shots. It doesn't hurt to have Skylar get away with murder time after time after time, fouling and hacking with no calls while getting to the foul line whenever a defender is within a few feet of her. She is talented but boy, do they really make her better with their selective officiating.
 
I really havent reviewed anything from ND but with Kelly Bria and KML playing defense on the perimiter, Breanna on the pertimiter and Stef down low. Breanna KML and Stef should shoot a very good percentage from down low and ND should have a bunch of fouls down low. Our height will keep them from scoring down low which translates into a big UConn win.
 
doggydaddy said:
And it only works when she has similar talent. I baffled by the sentiment that ND all of a sudden has UConn's number.

They won 3 of 4 last year and the last game the year before. That's 4 out of 5. All with Peters, Novosel and Mallory on the team. Along with Diggins and decent backups Achonwa and McBride.

Now those two move to the starting lineup and they add a talented freshman guard along with a undersized and not that talented Bracker.

Before the last two years, Geno has consistantly beaten McGraw's teams. I believe we are back to more of that.
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I disagree. Muffet has rarely had equivalent talent. What she does do is put the talent she has in a position to win through training and game structure.
 
This year's Notre Dame lost 3 starters to graduation, hasn't played particularly well yet, and is still comfortably 4th in the Sagarin rankings. Is this team as deep and talented as the last two seasons'? Of course not, but it is still a heck of a lot more talented than past Notre Dame teams outside of the last couple of years even during the Riley years.

Do circumstances need to lineup for ND to competitive at the end of a game with UConn? Of course. That's also true of every other team in WCBB outsidie of Baylor. and potential Duke although that is still unrealized potential at this point. Based on talent alone UConn should have won every game it has ever played against ND in the last 20 years, and yet Muffet has won games unlike so many other coaches and done so in years where UConn has had national championship caliber teams. UConn should be a double digit favorite in every game against ND this season and ND shouldn't be considered anything more than a Final Four contender, but it is reasonable to acknowledge that ND is still one of the best teams in the country and plays UConn as well as any program ever has. I don't see anyone doing anything more than that.
 
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I think the best way to handicap ND is to tie their legs together and one hand behind their backs.
 
or, we could do it the traditional way - make 'em run with some little dude (or dudette), wearing silks & goggles, sittin' on their shoulders, and hitting them with a stick. Seeing as how this is a big time match, and we're talking fillies, the weight allowance ought to be, say, 121 pounds?
 
“I think it is kind of like when Maya (Moore) graduated and other players step up and make some contributions,” UConn coach Geno Auriemma said. “When freshmen step in like Stefanie (Dolson) and Bria (Hartley) did as freshman, when they step into your program and have to play a lot, they surprise you with the number of things they can do and do well.

“Natalie (Achonwa) got a lot of experience playing in the Olympics (for Canada). She is a lot better than she was two years ago and it better than she was last year. Jewell Loyd has really made a huge difference on their team. She is one of the best freshmen in the country in my mind and she has added an awful lot because Notre Dame did lose a lot obviously. Everybody knew that McBride is a great player in high school and played great for them during their run (to the Final Four) so they have a lot of pieces in place. Their depth is going to depend on how well their freshmen keep improving but I am not surprised.

Geno as quoted by Jim Fuller

He seems a lot more admiring of Notre Dame's prowess than some of our membership.
 
msf22b said:
“I think it is kind of like when Maya (Moore) graduated and other players step up and make some contributions,” UConn coach Geno Auriemma said. “When freshmen step in like Stefanie (Dolson) and Bria (Hartley) did as freshman, when they step into your program and have to play a lot, they surprise you with the number of things they can do and do well.

“Natalie (Achonwa) got a lot of experience playing in the Olympics (for Canada). She is a lot better than she was two years ago and it better than she was last year. Jewell Loyd has really made a huge difference on their team. She is one of the best freshmen in the country in my mind and she has added an awful lot because Notre Dame did lose a lot obviously. Everybody knew that McBride is a great player in high school and played great for them during their run (to the Final Four) so they have a lot of pieces in place. Their depth is going to depend on how well their freshmen keep improving but I am not surprised.

Geno as quoted by Jim Fuller

He seems a lot more admiring of Notre Dame's prowess than some of our membership.
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Seriously? What is he supposed to say? That they lost 3 big cogs to the wheel that ran over UConn 4 of the last 5 games? That Loyd is a freshman that has never seen defense like this? That Diggins is shoot the worst of her career?

Geno always pumps up the opponent.
 
ND is no pushover , however , I do think UConn wins. Handily. We ONLY loss Tiffany from a great squad. ND loss Peters and Novosel from a good squad. That will hurt ND on the board and from the field. They gained Loyd and Mabrey ; we gained Stewie , Tuck , and MoJeff . Big edge to UConn.

McBride concerns me because she seems to get away with a lot of physical play and fouling. If she gets away with it on Saturday it could be a problem for Stewie and KML. If not , edge goes to UConn.

Conclusion , good game but UConn wins.
 
doggydaddy said:
Ah...so you are the one Geno was talking about. Got it.
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Hmmmm, Geno seems to have finally gotten it right about Hartley not performing. I guess if Geno sits her its ok now to wonder why she can't dribble and is so weak with the ball. Doty seems to have gotten the message against Oregon, will see how that continues.
Unlike you "copy whatever Geno says" crew members, some of us actually see what is going on in the games and comment on it, even if Geno hasn't given his blessing by also doing/saying something about it, YET.
 
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Husky68 said:
Hmmmm, Geno seems to have finally gotten it right about Hartley not performing. I guess if Geno sits her its ok now to wonder why she can't dribble and is so weak with the ball. Doty seems to have gotten the message against Oregon, will see how that continues.
Unlike you "copy whatever Geno says" crew members, some of us actually see what is going on in the games and comment on it, even if Geno hasn't given his blessing by also doing/saying something about it, YET.
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She is an ALL AMERICAN for God Sakes man. Trust me Geno has forgotten more about womens basketball than you will ever know so I think he has and will continue to start her.
 
IMO Hartley was sent a message in a game that we would win anyway. The message what ever it was is ND is coming to town and we need you. We might never know the truth because the coaches dont want us to know. Againest Stanford Bria had 10 pt, 5 reb, 3 asst, 2to, 1 steal in 38 mins. Not bad. So why did she sit with those numbers? Had to be decisionmaking or she needed rest. But again we dont know. If she dosn play on Saturday then we will know. I would expect her to explode againest ND infront of a sell out crowd.

As far as ND. They shoot poorly from trey range just like Stanford and Baylor. ND dosnt have the height to compete with us inside. You can be sure theyre going to dribble drive and jump into Stef and Breanna and you can be sure we will be taking charges. So how will they score againest us? From deep outside and trying to get transition going. Thats all they can do. I think our defense will have something to say about they passing the ball.

ND is not a push over but theyre not what they were not even close to last season. I really like our chances alot. I think we make life tuff for Lloyd and McBride and Diggins will have to carry the load which she hasnt done well this season. UCOnn by 20+
 
Icebear said:
Anyone 5'10" or taller.
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Ice, you know that String Theory (Particle Physics) posits the existence of 6 or 7 unseen physical dimensions in addition to the 3 spatial dimensions and time. My theory is that, in at least one of these dimensions, Bria is at the high end of the height distribution...
 
I used string theory and chaos theory in my Christmas Eve sermon: the power of the unseen and the power of small things.
 
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Icebear said:
I used string theory and chaos theory in my Christmas Eve sermon: the power of the unseen and the power of small things.
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Christmas String chaos theory

man_tangled_in_christmas_lights.jpg
 
Tonyc said:
IMO Hartley was sent a message in a game that we would win anyway. The message what ever it was is ND is coming to town and we need you. We might never know the truth because the coaches dont want us to know. Againest Stanford Bria had 10 pt, 5 reb, 3 asst, 2to, 1 steal in 38 mins. Not bad. So why did she sit with those numbers? Had to be decisionmaking or she needed rest. But again we dont know. If she dosn play on Saturday then we will know. I would expect her to explode againest ND infront of a sell out crowd.

As far as ND. They shoot poorly from trey range just like Stanford and Baylor. ND dosnt have the height to compete with us inside. You can be sure theyre going to dribble drive and jump into Stef and Breanna and you can be sure we will be taking charges. So how will they score againest us? From deep outside and trying to get transition going. Thats all they can do. I think our defense will have something to say about they passing the ball.

ND is not a push over but theyre not what they were not even close to last season. I really like our chances alot. I think we make life tuff for Lloyd and McBride and Diggins will have to carry the load which she hasnt done well this season. UCOnn by 20+
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Minus the Stanford game, which was a complete anomoly at 14%, Baylor is shooting 39% for the year from three point range, not that far behind UCONN's 40%.
 
msf22b said:
Geno as quoted by Jim Fuller

He seems a lot more admiring of Notre Dame's prowess than some of our membership.
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It is possible to think ND is good but also think that UConn will win handily.

UConn 77-52.
 
easttexastrash said:
Minus the Stanford game, which was a complete anomoly at 14%, Baylor is shooting 39% for the year from three point range, not that far behind UCONN's 40%.
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Do we get to eliminate a game also?;) I have to check which game we shot pooly from 3 pt land!
someone will probably provide stats before I do!
Ira
Well if we eliminate a 12-40 game or a 6-24 against ST our % goes up! Also your total 3pt shots per game are much less than our's! Which would make a comparison of %s close to comparing apples and oranges:) We are in top 5 Nationally you are not in the top 50
We have taken 276 shots in 12 games you have taken 109 in 11 games! Without eliminating any games we are at .402 you are at .339 Jusy sayin
Ira
 
easttexastrash said:
Minus the Stanford game, which was a complete anomoly at 14%, Baylor is shooting 39% for the year from three point range, not that far behind UCONN's 40%.
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I wish that Uconn had this stat page.

Game by Game for Baylor

You will note the 9-15 game. Now THAT is an anomoly. And the 5-7 the game before.

That's 14-22 for 2 games.

Take that away and Bayor is shooting 26.4%.

They have 7 games of under their season average and 4 games better.

The reality is that Baylor is shooting 33.9% for the season. And that is being generous as they are 1-6 to start tonights game.
 
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doggydaddy said:
I wish that Uconn had this stat page.

Game by Game for Baylor

You will note the 9-15 game. Now THAT is an anomoly. And the 5-7 the game before.

That's 14-22 for 2 games.

Take that away and Bayor is shooting 26.4%.

They have 7 games of under their season average and 4 games better.

The reality is that Baylor is shooting 33.9% for the season. And that is being generous as they are 1-6 to start tonights game.
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Doggy if you look at Baylor games againest top teams its alot worse then 26%. Bottom line we should be fine if we shaddow them from 3 pt range. I am looking forward to seeing Stef and Breanna go up againest Griner. That will be their biggest test.

The biggest difference is we have KML who is shooting over 50% from trey and she had a tummy virus the last 2 games.
 
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