Handicapping Notre Dame

[Vowelguy]

Minus the Stanford game, which was a complete anomoly at 14%, Baylor is shooting 39% for the year from three point range, not that far behind UCONN's 40%.

Against Baylor's four ranked opponents this year, they were 0-3 / 2-14 / 1-8 / 5-14 from 3-point range [21%]. In their other somewhat close game (UT-Martin), they were 5-7. [13-46/28%]

In UConn's 5 games against ranked opponents, it is 7-16 / 7-19 / 5-15 / 5-19 / 6-24 [30-93/32%]

 

[easttexastrash]

I like the fact that Baylor does not rely on the 3 pointer. UCONN Is obviously a much better three point shooting team, especially KML. Baylor's two best shooters, although the stats don't reflect it yet, are Sims and Prince. I am not as concerned about the % of the rest of the team as I am about the fact that Mulkey continues to give sub-par shooters the green light. IMO, Baylor should shoot no more than 5 a game.

Three point shots become harder to make at the end of the game when players are on tired legs. Baylor is also very good at defending the three ball.

 

[doggydaddy]

I like the fact that Baylor does not rely on the 3 pointer. UCONN Is obviously a much better three point shooting team, especially KML. Baylor's two best shooters, although the stats don't reflect it yet, are Sims and Prince. I am not as concerned about the % of the rest of the team as I am about the fact that Mulkey continues to give sub-par shooters the green light. IMO, Baylor should shoot no more than 5 a game.

Three point shots become harder to make at the end of the game when players are on tired legs. Baylor is also very good at defending the three ball.

They don't rely on it because they suck at it. They were 3-12 tonight. Another anomoly?

ETT - " UCONN Is obviously a much better three point shooting team, "

Translation - "You destroyed my attempt in removing one bad shooting game to make Baylor look as good as UConn in 3 point shooting"

 

[easttexastrash]

They don't rely on it because they suck at it. They were 3-12 tonight. Another anomoly?

ETT - " UCONN Is obviously a much better three point shooting team, "

Translation - "You destroyed my attempt in removing one bad shooting game to make Baylor look as good as UConn in 3 point shooting"

They don't rely in it because they have the best center in the history of WCBB. However, yes, I admit that I was wrong. They typically do suck at it.

In almost any night I will take Griner getting shots in the paint over any other team taking lots of contested three pointers.

 

[speedoo]

They don't rely in it because they have the best center in the history of WCBB. However, yes, I admit that I was wrong. They typically do suck at it.

In almost any night I will take Griner getting shots in the paint over any other team taking lots of contested three pointers.

Griner played 32 minutes tonight in an easy win. I thought Mulkey was going to reduce her minutes for some health related reason?. Any reason she could not have played say 25 minutes?

And are trying to say that Baylor is bad at three point shooting because they have Griner? What happens next year and beyond?

 

[doggydaddy]

They don't rely in it because they have the best center in the history of WCBB. However, yes, I admit that I was wrong. They typically do suck at it.

In almost any night I will take Griner getting shots in the paint over any other team taking lots of contested three pointers.

Well, Uconn hits around 40%. Their 111 made 3 pointers at 40% is the equivelent of 60% shooting on 2's.

With the way UConn whips the ball around the perimeter, drives and dishes, and plays inside-out, they get many open looks.

Griner in the paint and Uconn with 3 pointers. Both are effective.

UConn/Baylor will be decided by the team playing the best defense.

 

[easttexastrash]

Now, lets discuss 3pt FG defense. Baylor limits its opponents to 23.8% compared to UCONN's 31%. The differential between FG% shot and FG% allowed is slightly in Baylor's favor unless my math is wrong, which is possible.

 

[easttexastrash]

Griner played 32 minutes tonight in an easy win. I thought Mulkey was going to reduce her minutes for some health related reason?. Any reason she could not have played say 25 minutes?

And are trying to say that Baylor is bad at three point shooting because they have Griner? What happens next year and beyond?

LOL. I said nothing close to that. I said that they don't rely on the three because they have the most effective scoring center in the history of WCBB. Why jack up a bunch of 3s when you have two post players (Griner and Pope) who are shooting over 60% from the floor?

 

[speedoo]

LOL. I said nothing close to that. I said that they don't rely on the three because they have the most effective scoring center in the history of WCBB. Why jack up a bunch of 3s when you have two post players (Griner and Pope) who are shooting over 60% from the floor?

OK, but I note that you still have not answered my other questions.

 

[easttexastrash]

OK, but I note that you still have not answered my other questions.

Mulkey typically plays her starters extended minutes in conference. BG, who BTW had a nice little dunk tonight, will probably continue to average 30+ minutes a game. If the legs were a concern Mulkey would rest her more.

As far a next year, I refuse to think about that. (-:

 

[easttexastrash]

As a poster said last year, we can all manipulate statistics to support almost any argument we want.

And you are right DD...it will be all about defense in the Baylor vs UCONN game. Both teams are going to get after each other.

 

[iri10]

I wish that Uconn had this stat page.

Game by Game for Baylor

Assuming you mean that you wish we had one with that layout, here it is. I think most of these stat pages that teams use are auto-generated by the same software, so they all output in similar fashion.

 

[doggydaddy]

Assuming you mean that you wish we had one with that layout, here it is. I think most of these stat pages that teams use are auto-generated by the same software, so they all output in similar fashion.

Well, I'll be.....

Thanks!!!!

 

[reno tony]

I'm going to take a different approach to handicap this game. Does N.D. have anyone that can play with Stef? NO! Do they have a defender that can play like Superwoman Kelly? NO! Do they have a sharp shooter like KML? NO! Do they have a post player that can play with Breanna? NO! Do they have the bench to match up with UCONN? NO! Do they have guards that can match up with UCONN'S? YES! I don't see any conclusion but to call UCONN the winner.

 

[Icebear]

As a poster said last year, we can all manipulate statistics to support almost any argument we want.

And you are right DD...it will be all about defense in the Baylor vs UCONN game. Both teams are going to get after each other.

What manipulating those stats are pretty straight forward. Trending analysis would, also, indicate that UCONN's 3pt D has improved significantly.

 

[Icebear]

I wish that Uconn had this stat page.

Game by Game for Baylor

You will note the 9-15 game. Now THAT is an anomoly. And the 5-7 the game before.

That's 14-22 for 2 games.

Take that away and Bayor is shooting 26.4%.

They have 7 games of under their season average and 4 games better.

The reality is that Baylor is shooting 33.9% for the season. And that is being generous as they are 1-6 to start tonights game.

UCONN's 3pt D is dramatically affected by two significant outlying games which were back to back. First is Purdue at .591 and then Colgate at .412. After that the next highest 3pt % is .333. On the other end of the spread they have held teams to under .19 3 times with lows of .125 and .143, and under .29 another 4 games. Lastly, 3 games from .308 to .333.

10 of 12 games below .333 and 7 of 12 below .29. Pretty darn good 3pt D.

 

[easttexastrash]

UCONN's 3pt D is dramatically affected by two significant outlying games which were back to back. First is Purdue at .591 and then Colgate at .412. After that the next highest 3pt % is .333. On the other end of the spread they have held teams to under .19 3 times with lows of .125 and .143, and under .29 another 4 games. Lastly, 3 games from .308 to .333.

10 of 12 games below .333 and 7 of 12 below .29. Pretty darn good 3pt D.

I guess that's why we use averages.

 

[Icebear]

I guess that's why we use averages.

With such disparate outliers averages can be very distorting.

 

[easttexastrash]

With such disparate outliers averages can be very distorting.

Yes, I agree with you there. Statistics can be a frustrating tool to use when analyzing the capabilities of a team, especially since they do not take into account the level of talent of the opponents.

 

[msf22b]

After all the discussion, I expect a very, tough, competitive game that either team could win.

But what do I know?

And if it is rather a Stanford style blow-out, then the original prognosis of the most optimistic pre-season pundits (of our site, including myself) will be sustained.

 

[Phil]

With such disparate outliers averages can be very distorting.

Which suggests the use of the median, unaffected by outliers.

 

[Icebear]

Which suggests the use of the median, unaffected by outliers.

Yup.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Which suggests the use of the median, unaffected by outliers.

The medians for treys are 29.3% for Baylor and 23.1% for their opponents...a 6.2% spread...

The medians for treys are 44.3% for UCONN and 28.6% for their opponents...quite a spread at 17.7%!

 

[FairView]

Which suggests the use of the median, unaffected by outliers.

As my friend the market researcher says, the average American has one testicle and one ovary...better to use medians.

 

[Kevin G]

I hope UCONN destroys ND !!!!!!!!!!!!!