Handicapping Notre Dame

[msf22b]

Is not easy, in the same manner that planing for our bunch is not easy (ask Stanford).

They had a push-over win yesterday that still provides some food for thought.

I had anticipated a four-guard offense + Achonwa at the beginning of the season with Loyd and Mabrey providing freshman scoring punch. Jewel lived up to expectations but Mabrey spent 2012 in the doghouse with the least minutes on the team (until yesterday) with 6'-1" unheralded Junior forward Ariel Bracker (who did nothing last year) now 7.2 points, 4.3 rebounds per game sharing time with 6'-2" soph Markisha Wright (6.5 points, 4.3 rebounds).

All of a sudden, ND isn't so small and is getting almost 14 points and 8 and a half boards out of newly developed forecourt talent.

In yesterday's blowout, getting major minutes Wright had 20 points and Marbrey 18.

What does this all mean...I'm not really certain, except that Muffit can (and will) play 10 or 11 players all with some scoring potential, seemingly quicker and more athletic than Stanford.

I've fretted about them from the beginning of the season, this team is no pushover.
It's likely to be a much tougher game than Stanford.

I imagine we guard them straight up with Steph on Achonwa and Diggins by committee but not disregarding the other multi threats.

 

[semper]

They have a really smart coach, and this may make a difference as well. I know Tara is a great coach too, but I was somewhat disappointed in her work on Saturday, an apparent lack of plans B and C...maybe, as some have said, she just doesn't have the players to do that, but Geno would have tried some things, I like to think, anyway! And Muffit the same. Must be something in the Phillie water....

 

[pap49cba]

Muffet has proved she can coach against Geno and Uconn. This will be a much tougher game than most of us imagined back in October.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Jewel lived up to expectations but Mabrey spent 2012 in the doghouse with the least minutes on the team.

No, not in the doghouse, but had a severely sprained ankle.

Also in regards to how deeply Muffet will use her bench, she usually dips very lightly into the bench when playing tougher teams.

And don't forget about McBride. She's a great player who seems to play even better against the Huskies.

 

[doggydaddy]

I really do have a contrary opinion on this. Without equal talent, Muffet can coach her leather skirted off and she will get schooled by UConn time after time. History has proven that.

ND won 4 of the last 5 with Peters, Novosel and Mallory along with Diggins.

I'll have more info in my Analysis thread, but I just don't think the current roster can stand up to this version of UConn.

 

[msf22b]

Thanks for that correction Choke, I couldn't find it; knew something was up.

 

[Husky68]

Uconns weakness in running fast break and pg's in Doty and Hartley who can't dribble under pressure (Diggins applies good pressure and ND holds/bangs much more than refs call) and ND having players who can drive and shoot open shots - is the type of team that matches up well with Uconn. Stewart will get womanhandled, holding on KML should be less effective than last year, Dolson should get lot of opportunities and needs to finish, team must not allow Diggins to rebound/catch ball and take it all the way down the court to set up quick offense.
Last game ND had crazy advantage in rebounding.
Uconn needs to play smart when (if) it gets to 2nd half with 6-10 pt lead, put ND away rather than give up couple 3 point plays and couple turnovers to keep ND in it; don't want 5 pt game with 5 to go.
Can't afford 20 minutes of the Stanford Doty with few shots, no points and no pressing the ball forward on offense.

 

[speedoo]

I really do have a contrary opinion on this. Without equal talent, Muffet can coach her leather skirted off and she will get schooled by UConn time after time. History has proven that.

ND won 4 of the last 5 with Peters, Novosel and Mallory along with Diggins.

I'll have more info in my Analysis thread, but I just don't think the current roster can stand up to this version of UConn.

I agree. People are being fooled by ND putting up big numbers against bad teams and they ignore the fact that their best win is over Purdue, at home.. On paper, they do not match well with UConn at all, especially in the post.

 

[doggydaddy]

Uconns weakness in running fast break and pg's in Doty and Hartley who can't dribble under pressure (Diggins applies good pressure and ND holds/bangs much more than refs call) and ND having players who can drive and shoot open shots - is the type of team that matches up well with Uconn. Stewart will get womanhandled, holding on KML should be less effective than last year, Dolson should get lot of opportunities and needs to finish, team must not allow Diggins to rebound/catch ball and take it all the way down the court to set up quick offense.
Last game ND had crazy advantage in rebounding.
Uconn needs to play smart when (if) it gets to 2nd half with 6-10 pt lead, put ND away rather than give up couple 3 point plays and couple turnovers to keep ND in it; don't want 5 pt game with 5 to go.
Can't afford 20 minutes of the Stanford Doty with few shots, no points and no pressing the ball forward on offense.

Ah...so you are the one Geno was talking about. Got it.

 

[alexrgct]

There is absolutely nothing that can be gleaned from a game against St Francis and applied to a game against UConn. Not a thing. St Francis lost to Colgate. Remember them? Colgate is terrible.

What makes a lot more sense is to review how ND has fared against decent competition, which to their credit, they've had:

-Ohio State- W 57-51. First game of the season, on an aircraft carrier, but still not a resounding victory.
-UCLA- W 76-64. Solid win on the road against a pretty good UCLA squad. Though I do think UConn would woodshed UCLA.
-Baylor- L 61-73. No shame in that. I've heard Baylor's pretty good, and they have super tall chick who's something of a matchup problem.
-Texas A&M- W 83-74. This would concern me if I were ND. UConn went to College Station at less than full strength (no Bria), and manhandled A&M. Kelsey Bone had 28 and 10 against ND. Remember her? You wouldn't if all you had to go on was her game against UConn.
-Purdue- W 74-47. Now, that's a nice beatdown. Of course, UConn beat Purdue even more handily, on a neutral court, despite a stratospheric performance from three-point range by Purdue. And it's also possible Purdue isn't actually good. Other than ND and UConn, who both beat them mercilessly, they haven't played anyone.

I think this iteration of ND has two significant weaknesses: they don't have a post that can stop larger posts, and they rely heavily on transition, fast-break offense. UConn has post size and is not a team you want to play a track meet kind of a game against. That is a concern.

In the final analysis, my expectations are the same as they were before the season started. ND was only slightly better than UConn last year, they're not as good this year, and UConn is better. Mathematically speaking, then, UConn playing its best ball should be able to dispatch ND. And you can count on UConn being focused and up for this game like no other on the schedule except maybe Baylor.

 

[doggydaddy]

I think this iteration of ND has two significant weaknesses: they don't have a post that can stop larger posts, and they rely heavily on transition, fast-break offense. UConn has post size and is not a team you want to play a track meet kind of a game against. That is a concern.

In the final analysis, my expectations are the same as they were before the season started. ND was only slightly better than UConn last year, they're not as good this year, and UConn is better. Mathematically speaking, then, UConn playing its best ball should be able to dispatch ND. And you can count on UConn being focused and up for this game like no other on the schedule except maybe Baylor.

You just might find some of this in the game analysis I write. Don't sue me!!!

 

[CONNFAN23]

I am not that impressed with ND and feel that although this game will not be a pushover if UCONN plays its game and makes open shots then it will be at least a 20 point win.

 

[PacoSwede]

What's up with the couple of people in near-panic?

Lord, this is a game at Gampel!!! Huskies are on a tear. AND, they certainly have the motivation the give ND a thorough spanking in light of recent history. Do agree that it's crazy to overlook McBride, who perhaps deserves more attention from UConn D than Diggins.

 

[msf22b]

There is no "near-panic" that I can find.
Merely making the points that ND has moved from a pure 4-guard offense to having some useful size at forward
and that they're clearly better than earlier anticipated.
Should we rather underestimate them?
Seems unwise to me.
(Home advantage didn't help much last year and certainly didn't help Stanford).

 

[rjp172]

There is absolutely nothing that can be gleaned from a game against St Francis and applied to a game against UConn. Not a thing. St Francis lost to Colgate. Remember them? Colgate is terrible.

What makes a lot more sense is to review how ND has fared against decent competition, which to their credit, they've had:

-Ohio State- W 57-51. First game of the season, on an aircraft carrier, but still not a resounding victory.
-UCLA- W 76-64. Solid win on the road against a pretty good UCLA squad. Though I do think UConn would woodshed UCLA.
-Baylor- L 61-73. No shame in that. I've heard Baylor's pretty good, and they have super tall chick who's something of a matchup problem.
-Texas A&M- W 83-74. This would concern me if I were ND. UConn went to College Station at less than full strength (no Bria), and manhandled A&M. Kelsey Bone had 28 and 10 against ND. Remember her? You wouldn't if all you had to go on was her game against UConn.
-Purdue- W 74-47. Now, that's a nice beatdown. Of course, UConn beat Purdue even more handily, on a neutral court, despite a stratospheric performance from three-point range by Purdue. And it's also possible Purdue isn't actually good. Other than ND and UConn, who both beat them mercilessly, they haven't played anyone.

I think this iteration of ND has two significant weaknesses: they don't have a post that can stop larger posts, and they rely heavily on transition, fast-break offense. UConn has post size and is not a team you want to play a track meet kind of a game against. That is a concern.

In the final analysis, my expectations are the same as they were before the season started. ND was only slightly better than UConn last year, they're not as good this year, and UConn is better. Mathematically speaking, then, UConn playing its best ball should be able to dispatch ND. And you can count on UConn being focused and up for this game like no other on the schedule except maybe Baylor.

I think they quite like that and expect them to want to run at every opportunity. It may be to their peril, but it's in their nature. Players have changed, offense has stayed the same.

 

[doggydaddy]

There is no "near-panic" that I can find.
Merely making the points that ND has moved from a pure 4-guard offense to having some useful size at forward
and that they're clearly better than earlier anticipated.
Should we rather underestimate them?
Seems unwise to me.
(Home advantage didn't help much last year and certainly didn't help Stanford).

What WE do doesn't matter. I seriously doubt the team and Geno will underestimate them.

Are you seriously saying that home court doesn't come into play?

I hope their two undersized posts get plenty of minutes. Not sure why you think that with them playing, ND is better.

 

[doggydaddy]

I think they quite like that and expect them to want to run at every opportunity. It may be to their peril, but it's in their nature. Players have changed, offense has stayed the same.

It's true. And deadly when ND doesn't have the talent to keep it close.

 

[OneTrickPony]

From the games I've seen, I think McBride will give us the most problems...this would concern me more if Kaleena hadn't become so tough on the defensive end. McBride is a physical player that won't be able to muscle Kaleena effectively inside.

Skylar has been off in those games, but I understand she is playing better now.

Ace Achonwa is playing much better in my opinion than she did last year...but I think she is clearly over-matched against Stef 3.0...so we have the strong advantage.

Jewell is a wildcard...she can put points up, but is a freshman so a little unpredictable. If she gets hot and Skylar is off, Geno may even use Kelly on Lloyd...

 

[magical2]

I agree. People are being fooled by ND putting up big numbers against bad teams and they ignore the fact that their best win is over Purdue, at home.. On paper, they do not match well with UConn at all, especially in the post.

Briefly for now! My thoughts are the same as they were for the ST game. I am not at all ashamed or concerned
about predicting a 20+ pasting of ND. Look for big time games from the top 7 Plus
Ira

 

[Icebear]

One thing I always try and remember when considering UConn/ND matchups is that Muffet seems on a consistent basis to understand and game plan against Geno better than any other coach in the country.

 

[doggydaddy]

One thing I always try and remember when considering UConn/ND matchups is that Muffet seems on a consistent basis to understand and game plan against Geno better than any other coach in the country.

And it only works when she has similar talent. I baffled by the sentiment that ND all of a sudden has UConn's number.

They won 3 of 4 last year and the last game the year before. That's 4 out of 5. All with Peters, Novosel and Mallory on the team. Along with Diggins and decent backups Achonwa and McBride.

Now those two move to the starting lineup and they add a talented freshman guard along with a undersized and not that talented Bracker.

Before the last two years, Geno has consistantly beaten McGraw's teams. I believe we are back to more of that.

 

[RadyLady]

And it only works when she has similar talent. I baffled by the sentiment that ND all of a sudden has UConn's number.

They won 3 of 4 last year and the last game the year before. That's 4 out of 5. All with Peters, Novosel and Mallory on the team. Along with Diggins and decent backups Achonwa and McBride.

Now those two move to the starting lineup and they add a talented freshman guard along with a undersized and not that talented Bracker.

Before the last two years, Geno has consistently beaten McGraw's teams. I believe we are back to more of that.

I am inclined to agree. Folks have such short memories, I must say. ND was a wanna be for many years except for the NCAA championship year with Ruth Riley until the cast of characters that DD brings up above came into play. It was a powerful combination which is no more since the graduation of the first three.

Stanford, if you remember had a similar situation where they "had our number" for a year or two - as you can see, that ship has sailed. Why? Same coach, but the players have changed. It's part of the ebb and flow of the talent....

 

[semper]

Given the talent match up, I don't think this game will be a contest; we just have too many great players. I'm not worried, but I know they have a super coach and are rebuilding. They are not as good as last year; we are better.

 

[doggydaddy]

I am inclined to agree. Folks have such short memories, I must say. ND was a wanna be for many years except for the NCAA championship year with Ruth Riley until the cast of characters that DD brings up above came into play. It was a powerful combination which is no more since the graduation of the first three.

Stanford, if you remember had a similar situation where they "had our number" for a year or two - as you can see, that ship has sailed. Why? Same coach, but the players have changed. It's part of the ebb and flow of the talent....

McBride started last year. My bad.

 

[RadyLady]

McBride started last year. My bad.

thought so, but you know...it's you DD.......