Fox - Big East exclusive negotiating window

[Rdkid]

If CFB moves to a becoming pro league with pro payrolls for players, a union, pro staffs and infrastructure (as about 20 schools currently have), all this “college” speculation will be over. Simmons has a Ringer pod with Casey Wasserman that is interesting.

A Celtics Flop, Best Oscar Story Lines, Planning the Olympics, and the Fall of College Sports With Matthew Belloni and Casey Wasserman - The Ringer

The Ringer's Bill Simmons shares some brief thoughts on the Celtics' loss to the Cavaliers (2:08) before he is joined by Matthew Belloni to answer 10 burning questions about the Oscars (8:46). Then Bill talks with…

www.theringer.com

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What will the P1 look like?

 

[Ha Who]

What will the P1 look like?

Research in Motion

 

[The Yakk]

Simple logic when speculating. How does your speculation fall within rule #1?

I said nothing about UConn in my comment, only the ACC. They will survive in some form, as 3 conferences are simply not enough to hold all the schools with brand value. If they are smart and forward-thinking, their member schools can thrive. But that's a big "if".

Rule 1 says that if the ACC thrives, then UConn never gets an invitation. If UConn is somehow invited, then the ACC must be tanking.

But that's kind of absurd; inviting UConn is one of the smart, forward-thinking moves that would keep the conference thriving. If they go for Tulane and Memphis instead, then sure UConn gets screwed but so does everyone else remaining in the ACC.

The big 12 would love to have Pitt and Louisville

You know this, how?

And if the conference payouts are similar, why do you think those schools will jump?

They would certainly jump to the P2, as would anyone. You think those invitations are forthcoming for any more than a select few ACC schools?

 

[Ha Who]

I said nothing about UConn in my comment, only the ACC. They will survive in some form, as 3 conferences are simply not enough to hold all the schools with brand value. If they are smart and forward-thinking, their member schools can thrive. But that's a big "if".

Rule 1 says that if the ACC thrives, then UConn never gets an invitation. If UConn is somehow invited, then the ACC must be tanking.

But that's kind of absurd; inviting UConn is one of the smart, forward-thinking moves that would keep the conference thriving. If they go for Tulane and Memphis instead, then sure UConn gets screwed but so does everyone else remaining in the ACC.


You know this, how?

And if the conference payouts are similar, why do you think those schools will jump?

They would certainly jump to the P2, as would anyone. You think those invitations are forthcoming for any more than a select few ACC schools?

You answered your own question. Has logic especially with the ACC ever been the way they operated?

 

[Sole]

I said nothing about UConn in my comment, only the ACC. They will survive in some form, as 3 conferences are simply not enough to hold all the schools with brand value. If they are smart and forward-thinking, their member schools can thrive. But that's a big "if".

Rule 1 says that if the ACC thrives, then UConn never gets an invitation. If UConn is somehow invited, then the ACC must be tanking.

But that's kind of absurd; inviting UConn is one of the smart, forward-thinking moves that would keep the conference thriving. If they go for Tulane and Memphis instead, then sure UConn gets screwed but so does everyone else remaining in the ACC.


You know this, how?

And if the conference payouts are similar, why do you think those schools will jump?

They would certainly jump to the P2, as would anyone. You think those invitations are forthcoming for any more than a select few ACC schools?

I think if the acc breaks up.. they will have a home in the big 12

 

[Rdkid]

I agree that the players know most of the looming movements... from the UConn perspective, I think it's going to really depend on who the ACC remnants are in terms of the basketball side of things (FB will be an improvement over being independent; especially if Notre Dame continues to be playing a partial ACC schedule; time will tell on that)... from the men's BB perspective, I think as long as ACC remnants include BC, Syracuse, and at least one of Louisville, Pitt, or VA Tech then it will be received fairly well because we could presumably get out of conference games with Villanova, Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence regularly enough to please the fanbase (maybe throw in Marquette). I don’t think anyone will miss Xavier, Butler, DePaul. Creighton, meh....

The biggest heartache/fallout will be no more BE Tournament at MSG.

It's going to be an interesting scenario if/when the ACC loses some top brands.

I get the rivalries based on history and who fans would miss. Separate from CFB reality, a school like Creighton is not expendable as a basketball partner. #6 in attendance at 17k+ per game. They care and spend, including NIL. TV and markets matter, but fanbases and passion for basketball - and coaches at basketball-centric schools matter. That’s what the BE has going for it. Picked over ACC could be b-ball junk with small football TV contract. B12 will take anyone with functional football. That’ll make for a tougher decision. Now if Duke doesn’t have a chair…

 

[Hondo 77]

Research in Motion

I see what you did there.

 

[cellocgg]

I get the rivalries based on history and who fans would miss. Separate from CFB reality, a school like Creighton is not expendable as a basketball partner. #6 in attendance at 17k+ per game. They care and spend, including NIL. TV and markets matter, but fanbases and passion for basketball - and coaches at basketball-centric schools matter. That’s what the BE has going for it. Picked over ACC could be b-ball junk with small football TV contract. B12 will take anyone with functional football. That’ll make for a tougher decision. Now if Duke doesn’t have a chair…

I mean sure but I'd still take playing large state schools our own size 9/10 times, even if said school wasn't big on basketball

 

[ZooCougar]

I get the rivalries based on history and who fans would miss. Separate from CFB reality, a school like Creighton is not expendable as a basketball partner. #6 in attendance at 17k+ per game. They care and spend, including NIL. TV and markets matter, but fanbases and passion for basketball - and coaches at basketball-centric schools matter. That’s what the BE has going for it. Picked over ACC could be b-ball junk with small football TV contract. B12 will take anyone with functional football. That’ll make for a tougher decision. Now if Duke doesn’t have a chair…

Brands>markets

 

[Drew]

I get the rivalries based on history and who fans would miss. Separate from CFB reality, a school like Creighton is not expendable as a basketball partner. #6 in attendance at 17k+ per game. They care and spend, including NIL. TV and markets matter, but fanbases and passion for basketball - and coaches at basketball-centric schools matter. That’s what the BE has going for it. Picked over ACC could be b-ball junk with small football TV contract. B12 will take anyone with functional football. That’ll make for a tougher decision. Now if Duke doesn’t have a chair…

If you think they won’t leave schools like Creighton behind in 0.00002 seconds once it becomes financially convenient and feasible to them then I don’t even know what to tell you. You clearly have no idea what is actually happening in CR and I’d suggest focusing your time/energy elsewhere

 

[Kolumbo]

Speaking of Creighton, there's Nebraska looking like a tournament team. All I know about Nebraska hoops is Fred Hoiberg is the 5th year coach and I would think Nebraska has a very healthy NIL pot.

In the ACC all the likely remnants are solid basketball programs except for bcu of course. That is the one program I could not care less about in a future conference affiliation.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The thing about those who are greedy is they don't like sharing at all and only share with those they believe they have to share with. If anyone believes they (those running the P-2) aren't greedy on a Dennis Kozlowski level hasn't been paying attention.

I'm old enough to remember when DePaul was as big a name in basketball as anyone. I'm old enough to remember when LaSalle and Duquense were bigger names than any current Big East member than Marquette and perhaps Villanova. Brands can lowly die off. I imagine the grand plan is to eventully (10-15 years from now) relegate a conference like the Big East to a two or three bid league, while 24 member P-2 conferences (B1G and SEC) each get sixteen bids and 12-14 member ACC and B-12 each get four to five bids. Everyone else will be a one bid (occaisionally two bids for a better low major), the bottom third having to meet in play-in games.

They will choke schools out slowly, using finances to do so. They already have far better TV money and in many cases better attendance and booster revenues than even the better G group of schools. In time they'll control 70%-75% of NCAA tournament revenues, the one revenue source that they don't currently dominate.

They'll pretend they're being magnanamous by allowing participation of other schools, if they qualify, in the tournament but will stack the deck to a level where the participation numbers I addressed above will be reached. They didn't go through all of this trouble, increasing their conferences size, to end up with a lower percentage of member schools earning tournament credits each year.

Look at this as mamifest destiny. After Little Big Horn it may have been easy to say that the government wouldn't take all native American territory. It took a bit more than a quarter century after that before Oklahoma and Arizona (at the time reserved as Indian territory) became states.

 

[Exit 4]

The thing about those who are greedy is they don't like sharing at all and only share with those they believe they have to share with. If anyone believes they (those running the P-2) aren't greedy on a Dennis Kozlowski level hasn't been paying attention.

I'm old enough to remember when DePaul was as big a name in basketball as anyone. I'm old enough to remember when LaSalle and Duquense were bigger names than any current Big East member than Marquette and perhaps Villanova. Brands can lowly die off. I imagine the grand plan is to eventully (10-15 years from now) relegate a conference like the Big East to a two or three bid league, while 24 member P-2 conferences (B1G and SEC) each get sixteen bids and 12-14 member ACC and B-12 each get four to five bids. Everyone else will be a one bid (occaisionally two bids for a better low major), the bottom third having to meet in play-in games.

They will choke schools out slowly, using finances to do so. They already have far better TV money and in many cases better attendance and booster revenues than even the better G group of schools. In time they'll control 70%-75% of NCAA tournament revenues, the one revenue source that they don't currently dominate.

They'll pretend they're being magnanamous by allowing participation of other schools, if they qualify, in the tournament but will stack the deck to a level where the participation numbers I addressed above will be reached. They didn't go through all of this trouble, increasing their conferences size, to end up with a lower percentage of member schools earning tournament credits each year.

Look at this as mamifest destiny. After Little Big Horn it may have been easy to say that the government wouldn't take all native American territory. It took a bit more than a quarter century after that before Oklahoma and Arizona (at the time reserved as Indian territory) became states.

Can’t argue with any of this including the long view- which is certainly the plan.

 

[CL82]

Simple logic when speculating. How does your speculation fall within rule #1?

Best of the rest leftover conference falls within the scope of rule one.

 

[superjohn]

The thing about those who are greedy is they don't like sharing at all and only share with those they believe they have to share with. If anyone believes they (those running the P-2) aren't greedy on a Dennis Kozlowski level hasn't been paying attention.

I'm old enough to remember when DePaul was as big a name in basketball as anyone. I'm old enough to remember when LaSalle and Duquense were bigger names than any current Big East member than Marquette and perhaps Villanova. Brands can lowly die off. I imagine the grand plan is to eventully (10-15 years from now) relegate a conference like the Big East to a two or three bid league, while 24 member P-2 conferences (B1G and SEC) each get sixteen bids and 12-14 member ACC and B-12 each get four to five bids. Everyone else will be a one bid (occaisionally two bids for a better low major), the bottom third having to meet in play-in games.

They will choke schools out slowly, using finances to do so. They already have far better TV money and in many cases better attendance and booster revenues than even the better G group of schools. In time they'll control 70%-75% of NCAA tournament revenues, the one revenue source that they don't currently dominate.

They'll pretend they're being magnanamous by allowing participation of other schools, if they qualify, in the tournament but will stack the deck to a level where the participation numbers I addressed above will be reached. They didn't go through all of this trouble, increasing their conferences size, to end up with a lower percentage of member schools earning tournament credits each year.

Look at this as mamifest destiny. After Little Big Horn it may have been easy to say that the government wouldn't take all native American territory. It took a bit more than a quarter century after that before Oklahoma and Arizona (at the time reserved as Indian territory) became states.

Come on man, they're not China. This isn't some long running grand plan. You're giving them way too much credit. None of this is really thought out or at least hasn't been for a long time. It's all a changing landscape and if any of this has taught us anything the NCAA, conference commissioners, and college presidents are idiots and reactionaries. They're all just reacting to TV networks, court decisions, and VC's.

Everything continues to change, the one thing I'm 100% confident will continue to matter and will matter even more going forward is brands.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Come on man, they're not China. This isn't some long running grand plan. You're giving them way too much credit. None of this is really thought out or at least hasn't been for a long time. It's all a changing landscape and if any of this has taught us anything the NCAA, conference commissioners, and college presidents are idiots and reactionaries. They're all just reacting to TV networks, court decisions, and VC's.

Everything continues to change, the one thing I'm 100% confident will continue to matter and will matter even more going forward is brands.

This has been going on for nearly a quarter century and will continue for another 12-15 years. There has been a plan for quite some time, predating the initial ACC raid of the Big East.

 

[CL82]

This isn't some long running grand plan.

Disagree. Especially for the Big Ten, they've been very strategic about their conference realignment moves. I get the sense that this has always been the plan.

 

[Exit 4]

This has been going on for nearly a quarter century and will continue for another 12-15 years. There has been a plan for quite some time, predating the initial ACC raid of the Big East.

To your point, spend time with the B1G or SEC donor/fanbase and you’d get the impression we are already there - manifest destiny is assured… inevitable and beyond doubt. There only question is how to set up to avoid Washington stepping in.

 

[Ha Who]

Disagree. Especially for the Big Ten, they've been very strategic about their conference realignment moves. I get the sense that this has always been the plan.

I agree. While the Big took Rutgirls for their market,the ACC was listening to flipper

 

[FfldCntyFan]

SJ,

Question for you: in your opinion, how likely is it that Nova's next head coach will bring them a national title?

 

[Rdkid]

If you think they won’t leave schools like Creighton behind in 0.00002 seconds once it becomes financially convenient and feasible to them then I don’t even know what to tell you. You clearly have no idea what is actually happening in CR and I’d suggest focusing your time/energy elsewhere

Yeah, yeah - money and football talks - thanks for your cutting edge insight. And the goons coming for the pile is inevitable and we’ll only have P2 hoops - wrong. When you cast off schools and fanbases that really care about basketball, you are left with what? Have you ever been to a mediocre P2 basketball game between 2 mediocre programs? I have. Their fans are counting the days until spring practice. And the P2 are riddled with low-interest programs - especially the B10. Crapping on the 64-team tourney of all comers as well as programs with fans that are clearly all in on basketball will kill CBB. Half the country will have no rooting interest. CBB is not CFB - it is not 1/10th as popular in its regular season nationally. According to you, all hope is lost for the beloved spectacle and money maker that is March Madness. They may kill NEC basketball in the tourney (and that’s wrong), but programs like Creighton and other BE schools are fine.

 

[Rdkid]

The thing about those who are greedy is they don't like sharing at all and only share with those they believe they have to share with. If anyone believes they (those running the P-2) aren't greedy on a Dennis Kozlowski level hasn't been paying attention.

I'm old enough to remember when DePaul was as big a name in basketball as anyone. I'm old enough to remember when LaSalle and Duquense were bigger names than any current Big East member than Marquette and perhaps Villanova. Brands can lowly die off. I imagine the grand plan is to eventully (10-15 years from now) relegate a conference like the Big East to a two or three bid league, while 24 member P-2 conferences (B1G and SEC) each get sixteen bids and 12-14 member ACC and B-12 each get four to five bids. Everyone else will be a one bid (occaisionally two bids for a better low major), the bottom third having to meet in play-in games.

They will choke schools out slowly, using finances to do so. They already have far better TV money and in many cases better attendance and booster revenues than even the better G group of schools. In time they'll control 70%-75% of NCAA tournament revenues, the one revenue source that they don't currently dominate.

They'll pretend they're being magnanamous by allowing participation of other schools, if they qualify, in the tournament but will stack the deck to a level where the participation numbers I addressed above will be reached. They didn't go through all of this trouble, increasing their conferences size, to end up with a lower percentage of member schools earning tournament credits each year.

Look at this as mamifest destiny. After Little Big Horn it may have been easy to say that the government wouldn't take all native American territory. It took a bit more than a quarter century after that before Oklahoma and Arizona (at the time reserved as Indian territory) became states.

Unless college football breaks away from universities and moves to a professional entity with unionized, salaried players who just have the school’s name on their jerseys, all of college sports is doomed. This is what is going to happen, very soon. Big 10 will be the AFC, SEC will be the NFC. Private equity, baby. Maybe the NFL and networks will be owners. The NCAA will survive as a sponsor of college sports, including basketball and the football leftovers. It is coming very soon.

 

[UCFBfan]

Disagree. Especially for the Big Ten, they've been very strategic about their conference realignment moves. I get the sense that this has always been the plan.

Agreed and they were just waiting for the SEC to catch on to it and help finalize their power. The B1G has always been the head of this. The SEC has always been the best conference. The B1G needed the SEC to finally come to the reality that if they worked with the B1G, they could essentially own this.

 

[billybud]

Estimated probability of competing in college athletics

Estimated probability of competing in college athletics

www.ncaa.org

 

[Rdkid]

To your point, spend time with the B1G or SEC donor/fanbase and you’d get the impression we are already there - manifest destiny is assured… inevitable and beyond doubt. There only question is how to set up to avoid Washington stepping in.

Although friends I have in their fanbase at less historically successful P2 schools worry about being left out of a super conference ala European football. That or being under the boot of the giants forever. And they are not college presidents, they don’t care about tv money for any other reason than it helps winning. NIL disparity is making them crazy. In an unregulated system, everyone but a few are stressed.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

To your point, spend time with the B1G or SEC donor/fanbase and you’d get the impression we are already there - manifest destiny is assured… inevitable and beyond doubt. There only question is how to set up to avoid Washington stepping in.

Don’t get TV money confused with donors and fanbase. If Stanford alumni ever decided to teach an SEC school a lesson, they could wipe its athletic program out.

 

[Exit 4]

Don’t get TV money confused with donors and fanbase. If Stanford alumni ever decided to teach an SEC school a lesson, they could wipe its athletic program out.

I guess, but schools like Oklahoma State or Texas Tech or SMU or Memphis seem as likely as anyone to have a billion suddenly get stupid and burn 10s of millions a year on operating costs (NIL). We shall see.

 

[superjohn]

The B1G and SEC have viewed this as entirely a battle of financial attrition. Each has been slowly, systematically adding schools and further distancing themselves from the rest of D1 (P level and H level). The end result will be tier one the two above conferences 22-24 members schools each, receiving 80%+ media exposure and revenues. Tier two ACC and B-12, 12-14 schools each, fighting over ~16%-18% of media exposure and revenues. Everyone else, hoping the remaining scraps are sufficient to generate some excitement. We need to participate in a number of payday games in revenue sports to survive.

The Big 10 and SEC are going to break away for football. You talk about this grand plan and still think they'll keep the other conferences around. Once they add those few ACC football brands that are left they will have every football brand that matters and break off.

 

[superjohn]

SJ,

Question for you: in your opinion, how likely is it that Nova's next head coach will bring them a national title?

It depends on who they hire but I don't think Nova is done winning national championships.