OT: Florida State to sue ACC over GOR

[CTFAN4LIFE]

The ACC is not going to let FSU walk away and open the door for others to follow the same route. They might as well rip up the GOR. FSU doesn’t have to win the lawsuit, they just have to create enough doubt about the ACC chances at winning to get a new, unequal revenue sharing model. Ironically, that new model might attract ND and Big 12 teams to join the ACC.

Clearly you've had too much ACC kool-aid.

 

[NE Football]

I don't see how the math works for that theory. FSU is aiming toward a 70 million per year plus distribution. Essentially they want a double share. Do you see the other schools being willing to give that up?

for the moment though, let's assume that the math works , they also feel as if they were snubbed in the college football playoff selection due to conference affiliation. How does money fix that?

The payout per team increases to 50 million per team in a few years. Add in new revenue from the CFP and the expanded ACCN (Texas & California) and no team will actually see a decrease in revenues, but top teams will get a larger increase.

The CFP is expanding to 12 teams. FSU knows that the easiest path to the CFP is through the ACC.

 

[CL82]

The payout per team increases to 50 million per team in a few years. Add in new revenue from the CFP and the expanded ACCN (Texas & California) and no team will actually see a decrease in revenues, but top teams will get a larger increase.

The CFP is expanding to 12 teams. FSU knows that the easiest path to the CFP is through the ACC.

And yet, FSU is suing to leave the conference. Apparently they have a different worldview.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

And yet, FSU is suing to leave the conference. Apparently they have a different worldview.

And, no conference affiliation change has been predicated on going or staying in an easier CFP path. Quite the opposite actually.

 

[UConnJim]

The payout per team increases to 50 million per team in a few years. Add in new revenue from the CFP and the expanded ACCN (Texas & California) and no team will actually see a decrease in revenues, but top teams will get a larger increase.

The CFP is expanding to 12 teams. FSU knows that the easiest path to the CFP is through the ACC.

The ACCN revenues peaked and they will get an increase with the in market ACCN rate in the Dallas and San Francisco media markets, but then revenues will begin to decline with cord cutting, the same math that is impacting ESPN. And, if schools do leave the ACC, they will lose in market fees for their markets.

You are missing the big picture here. FSU does not compare themselves to ACC schools (except maybe Miami and Clemson) but to SEC schools. That is who they recruit against who they aspire to compete with. They can not be in a $50 million annual deficit with the schools they perceive to be their peers.

 

[Chin Diesel]

This is a classic negotiating game theory.

For the ACC if they win fully, they keep FSU's home game TV rights regardless of whether FSU stays or goes.

ACC can lose two ways.

The first is the GoR is completely invalidated and FSU walks away scot free. This has the multiplier effect of several other ACC schools most likely doing the same and destroying the conference.

The second way the ACC loses is if FSU is allowed to negotiate a price they can pay and a few other schools can pay but most cannot. Then there is a diluted ACC but it still exists.

If ACC puts all its eggs on the win only basket and they lose, they get no money and the conference is gone.

If they get too weak on negotiating they get some money but conference is severely damaged and bleeds a slow death.

The sweet spot is to fight and claw while making FSU pay a huge fee which is cost prohibitive for most of the remaining schools. And that is the solution where I'd put my betting money.

 

[Chuck]

This is a classic negotiating game theory.

For the ACC if they win fully, they keep FSU's home game TV rights regardless of whether FSU stays or goes.

ACC can lose two ways.

The first is the GoR is completely invalidated and FSU walks away scot free. This has the multiplier effect of several other ACC schools most likely doing the same and destroying the conference.

The second way the ACC loses is if FSU is allowed to negotiate a price they can pay and a few other schools can pay but most cannot. Then there is a diluted ACC but it still exists.

If ACC puts all its eggs on the win only basket and they lose, they get no money and the conference is gone.

If they get too weak on negotiating they get some money but conference is severely damaged and bleeds a slow death.

The sweet spot is to fight and claw while making FSU pay a huge fee which is cost prohibitive for most of the remaining schools. And that is the solution where I'd put my betting money.

Here's something I've been wondering. What is the ACC? I think it's an entity, but in the end, it's controlled by its parts (schools). If so, all those parts will have different goals. Maybe UNC is perfectly happy to let FSU try to blow things up and they'll be on the side of a negotiated release. But Wake Forest is probably all-in on keeping everyone captive as long as possible.

It's not like the ACC office can decide to sue everyone in the league. They have a duty of loyalty to each other, but that doesn't mean they all have to agree to go down with the ship, they just have to be upfront about certain things. UConn learned that the hard way when the Big East "brothers" convinced/allowed UConn to be the lead plaintiff and we still seem to be paying for it today.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Here's something I've been wondering. What is the ACC? I think it's an entity, but in the end, it's controlled by its parts (schools). If so, all those parts will have different goals. Maybe UNC is perfectly happy to let FSU try to blow things up and they'll be on the side of a negotiated release. But Wake Forest is probably all-in on keeping everyone captive as long as possible.

It's not like the ACC office can decide to sue everyone in the league. They have a duty of loyalty to each other, but that doesn't mean they all have to agree to go down with the ship, they just have to be upfront about certain things. UConn learned that the hard way when the Big East "brothers" convinced/allowed UConn to be the lead plaintiff and we still seem to be paying for it today.

There are definitely different interests amongst the members based on each institutions perceived value in an open market if the ACC disintegrates.

Several months ago when the term "Magnificent 7" was coined I mentioned it would almost be worth it for the lower rung schools who have fewer options available should the conference disintegrate to proactively vote with the Magnificent 7 to dissolve the conference and find/form a new entity. There is strength in the bottom schools (WF and BCU being the most vulnerable at the time) forming an alliance. The mid-tier schools (VT, SU, Pitt, 'ville) would be left scrambling for spots.

When "it" hits the fan for the ACC I am convinced FSU, Miami, GT, UVA, UNC are scooped up right away. Whether it's B1G or SEC, I don't know. They're gone before the ink is dry. NCSU, VT are two most obvious choices to go next. Then you have SU, Pitt and Louisville and then the dumpsters of BCU and WFU. I'm not even considering the new schools of Calford and SMU.

 

[Zissou]

The ACCN revenues peaked and they will get an increase with the in market ACCN rate in the Dallas and San Francisco media markets, but then revenues will begin to decline with cord cutting, the same math that is impacting ESPN. And, if schools do leave the ACC, they will lose in market fees for their markets.

You are missing the big picture here. FSU does not compare themselves to ACC schools (except maybe Miami and Clemson) but to SEC schools. That is who they recruit against who they aspire to compete with. They can not be in a $50 million annual deficit with the schools they perceive to be their peers.

Why does FSU keep signing GORs?

 

[UConnJim]

Why does FSU keep signing GORs?

Your right, they shouldn't have. Just like Swofford, I think many people underestimated how much and how quickly the market for media rights would change. If I had told you 10 years ago that the Pac 12 would collapse, the Big 10 would include 4 former Pac 12 schools, SMU/Cal/Stanford would be part of the ACC,... you would call me the guy in his basement making up realignment scenarios. Yet, here we are.

FSU wants out of the ACC given current and expected future market conditions and they are trying to find a way to leave. Maybe they can, maybe they can't, but in the long run, the ACC as currently constructed is done.

 

[Vowelguy]

for the moment though, let's assume that the math works , they also feel as if they were snubbed in the college football playoff selection due to conference affiliation. How does money fix that?

1) money fixes all problems
2) whether they really think that or not is unclear, and irrelevant. the point is that it's a credible bargaining chip -- "we want out bc we will never get a fair shake." everything FSU can do to create a credible threat that they are leaving gives them a better chance of getting a sweet deal from the ACC

for as much as FSU wants out ACC, it's not clear that the SEC or BiG wants them. so they need to get a good offer from the ACC as a backup plan.

 

[billybud]

It isn’t all about just the money. It is also the recognition that there will be a P2 big boys league and irrelevant rest.

 

[CL82]

1) money fixes all problems
2) whether they really think that or not is unclear, and irrelevant. the point is that it's a credible bargaining chip -- "we want out bc we will never get a fair shake." everything FSU can do to create a credible threat that they are leaving gives them a better chance of getting a sweet deal from the ACC

for as much as FSU wants out ACC, it's not clear that the SEC or BiG wants them. so they need to get a good offer from the ACC as a backup plan.

It's not clear to us that the SEC or B1G wants them, but I would be surprised if they would be so reactionary as to quit a conference without having a home to go to.

 

[dayooper]

It isn’t all about just the money. It is also the recognition that there will be a P2 big boys league and irrelevant rest.

This.

I also believe that FSU wants to market to a greater audience. While the games with SEC schools would work, a conference that stretches from heavy population centers of NY/NJ to DC through the Midwest (where many say young people are looking to get out) to the heavy population centers of the West Coast has to be appealing. Throw in the heavy brands of OSU, PSU, Michigan, USC, Oregon and Washington, you have people watching in those areas.

These are also academic heavyweights with huge enrollments. All but three current (Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern) and one future (Oregon) are below 40,000 students. FSU currently has about 47,000. Most are highly rated with Michigan, Northwestern, UCLA and Washington being considered elite research universities, something FSU aspires to be.

Who knows what will happen, but I’m getting my Junior Mints ready (I don’t like popcorn) and will watch a real life reality show as it unfolds.

 

[Patman]

This.

I also believe that FSU wants to market to a greater audience. While the games with SEC schools would work, a conference that stretches from heavy population centers of NY/NJ to DC through the Midwest (where many say young people are looking to get out) to the heavy population centers of the West Coast has to be appealing. Throw in the heavy brands of OSU, PSU, Michigan, USC, Oregon and Washington, you have people watching in those areas.

These are also academic heavyweights with huge enrollments. All but three current (Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern) and one future (Oregon) are below 40,000 students. FSU currently has about 47,000. Most are highly rated with Michigan, Northwestern, UCLA and Washington being considered elite research universities, something FSU aspires to be.

Who knows what will happen, but I’m getting my Junior Mints ready (I don’t like popcorn) and will watch a real life reality show as it unfolds.

I mean I think that was always the boston college issue, they didn't like being regional bozos, they wanted to be national bozos, and I get it. Also nobody likes being left out.

 

[Waquoit]

ESPN has been bleeding revenue and profit for a while. If all was well with ESPN, why hasn't ANYONE stepped up to buy the Worldwide Leader since Iger publicly signaled that it was for sale 6 months ago?

ESPN's per month subscription fee is heavily bundled with Hulu and DisneyPlus, so ESPN isn't really getting $10/sub.

I'm getting the Disney bundle as a cell phone perk. Ray Ratto just put it this way: "ESPN management cannot be embarrassed enough times in enough ways, given that it doesn't know what the kids want while it still panders shamelessly to the over-55 crowd that still has cable. It's floundering in anticipation of the slow-motion diminution of its empire, and seeking out the illusion of a younger audience that shows increasing signs of not being all that interested in what's being repurposed."

 

[whalerfan]

It isn’t all about just the money. It is also the recognition that there will be a P2 big boys league and irrelevant rest.

You understand that there are a hell of a lot more colleges than those who will be in those leagues. That's what people (like you) seem to forget. That's a lot of eyeballs that won't give a rats behind what they do. So to call 98% of the universities/colleges in the country irrelevant is extremely condescending.

 

[Hoophound]

I won’t watch a league of 32…. or 52. I’ll just watch pro. There needs to be 100+ schools.

 

[UConnJim]

I won’t watch a league of 32…. or 52. I’ll just watch pro. There needs to be 100+ schools.

I don't think we end up with a "super league" that only plays each other. The P2 conferences will have more money, win almost all championships, have the best coaches, and dominate the best TV time slots. And, the P2 will be able to set the rules on things like recruiting, playoffs, rosters, eligibility,... But, there will be other conferences as well. Kind of like the P5 and G5 now. And, P2 and non P2 schools will play each other due to interest and for the P2s to get some wins so they don't have losing records every year.

 

[Chin Diesel]

I won’t watch a league of 32…. or 52. I’ll just watch pro. There needs to be 100+ schools.

That may be true but there's not enough of you that will turn away from college all together and the fans of those 32-52 schools you envision creating a new entity will watch even more football.
The numbers show it time and time again, the top 20-30 programs drive every meaningful college football game rating wise.

 

[Hoophound]

That may be true but there's not enough of you that will turn away from college all together and the fans of those 32-52 schools you envision creating a new entity will watch even more football.
The numbers show it time and time again, the top 20-30 programs drive every meaningful college football game rating wise.

Maybe, but the dreams of 100’s of thousands (or millions) of fans will be crushed. I still follow college football because UConn plays in FBS and has a remote chance of catching lightning in a bottle and doing something. If that possibility is removed, I’m not picking a new team to support. I’ll just lose interest. This happened to my relationship with the NHL when the Whalers left. I went from a big fan to not caring at all. I have no idea what’s going on in the NHL. It was a grieving process, but at this point i don't even know the expansion team names. Last night I saw the ads for the Vegas Golden Knight’s game. I had never even heard of them.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Maybe, but the dreams of 100’s of thousands (or millions) of fans will be crushed. I still follow college football because UConn plays in FBS and has a remote chance of catching lightning in a bottle and doing something. If that possibility is removed, I’m not picking a new team to support. I’ll just lose interest. This happened to my relationship with the NHL when the Whalers left. I went from a big fan to not caring at all. I have no idea what’s going on in the NHL. It was a grieving process, but at this point i don't even know the expansion team names. Last night I saw the ads for the Vegas Golden Knight’s game. I had never even heard of them.

To each their own. UConn and the rest could still be playing and have a meaningful game. If the Whalers had stayed but dropped down to AHL I bet they still would have kept a decent amount of fans.
If you are a fan of a sport and there's a game locally, you'll find a way to watch and enjoy. A team leaving and leaving a void behind is a different animal.

 

[Ha Who]

To each their own. UConn and the rest could still be playing and have a meaningful game. If the Whalers had stayed but dropped down to AHL I bet they still would have kept a decent amount of fans.
If you are a fan of a sport and there's a game locally, you'll find a way to watch and enjoy. A team leaving and leaving a void behind is a different animal.

I think I went to one Wolfpack game. Went to many Whalers because my friend’s Dad has season tickets. Once you watch Wayne Gretzky , it is hard to watch Brett Berad

 

[Chin Diesel]

I think I went to one Wolfpack game. Went to many Whalers because my friend’s Dad has season tickets. Once you watch Wayne Gretzky , it is hard to watch Brett Berad

Yes, but it's expectations. I'm in a pro sports desert in the panhandle of Florida. New Orleans is closest city with pro sports and that's 3 hours away.

For hockey the only thing in the area is the Pensacola Ice Flyers. Unaffiliated SPHL. The hockey isn't good. I'm far from an expert on hockey but I can tell they are smaller and slower, their stick handling and passing isn't great and the goalies are sus. But, there's 5000 fans and they wear sweaters from all different NHL franchises and the teams are all from the southeast so the hits and fights can be fun. Plus, I can park for $5 and walk up to the ticket office 30 minutes before game time and get a ticket for $10. I go to a few games a year.

Same thing for the NFL. I know plenty of fans of the Saints and Falcons who make it a weekend trip a few times a year. Then you have the transplant Cowboy, Steelers fans who will travel any where nearby to see them play.

Somewhere my point is if you like a team and like a sport you figure it out and adapt and have fun with it.

 

[Hoophound]

Yes, but it's expectations. I'm in a pro sports desert in the panhandle of Florida. New Orleans is closest city with pro sports and that's 3 hours away.

For hockey the only thing in the area is the Pensacola Ice Flyers. Unaffiliated SPHL. The hockey isn't good. I'm far from an expert on hockey but I can tell they are smaller and slower, their stick handling and passing isn't great and the goalies are sus. But, there's 5000 fans and they wear sweaters from all different NHL franchises and the teams are all from the southeast so the hits and fights can be fun. Plus, I can park for $5 and walk up to the ticket office 30 minutes before game time and get a ticket for $10. I go to a few games a year.

Same thing for the NFL. I know plenty of fans of the Saints and Falcons who make it a weekend trip a few times a year. Then you have the transplant Cowboy, Steelers fans who will travel any where nearby to see them play.

Somewhere my point is if you like a team and like a sport you figure it out and adapt and have fun with it.

You kind of make the point though. That’s what you have in Pensacola, so you support the team. You didn’t lose an NHL team there though. The loss of viability in college football for 100 programs will be much more like the Whalers leaving. You are taking a step down. That’s a killer to a fan. It just won’t be exciting to have no chance to become relevant or make a run at a title. Even Jim Mora said that the goal was to compete for a National Championship. That far flung goal won’t even be possible.