Nova has been playing like the 38th best team in the country with Justin Moore back according to Torvik. If you give them the benefit of the doubt and say he needed a few games and only do the most recent 6 (they've won 5 of the 6), they're at #34.
We're at #6 in that same stretch.
But still, will be tough to win at their place. 34th puts them at about the same strength as Providence, although obviously very different style. At the time, @Prov we were 5.5 point favorites (they improved their metrics since then). KenPom has the Nova game as 4 points. I'm guessing it'll be closer to 2.5 like Creighton was today.