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baggerbob said:
If they have anywhere near the turnovers against Uconn that they had against Baylor it won't be a close game. This is the Final Four, and
Stewie, Moriah, and Morgan thrive in this situation, being there the first time as coach and players is a very different environment.
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Agree. Speed, aggressiveness, and pressure defense should result in a 20-point Uconn win.
 
UConn had their B game. There will not be a repeat of another B game. UConn by 21 is about right!!! On the other hand if UConn play a C game then anything can happens!!!
 
I like this Oregon State team and they're very well coached. I'm excited to see what Jefferson and Nurse will do to those guards defensively. If UConn can play at its pace, I think they force a lot of turnovers and Oregon State is gassed in the second half. Also, UConn tends to do very well against teams where all 5 players cannot score, and Oregon State's 4th and 5th starters don't chip in a lot in the scoring department.
 
PhillyCoach said:
Does everyone know that Baylor scored all their first half points through OSU turnovers or Baylor offensive rebounds? Yes, every point. Not one from a set play/half-court offense. IMHO UConn will probably score more points in the normal fashion than that.
Key point - Geno has stated that as a team--you are who you have been all season. Sure, teams can play out of their minds for a quarter or two, maybe even 3, or that super game from the heavens. The odds are-- probably not against UConn.
Baylor showed that OSU can be disrupted and can be forced into turnovers. The OSU guards are not quick, not real athletic, they are smart, and they don't have great handles. Oh my! Guess what OSU season stats were for turnovers? They were #328 in the nation--almost last. They were -4.75 per game in turnovers. Weisner, listed at 5"10, is the top OSU scorer and has 76 assists and 87 turnovers. Hamblin is another top scorer and has 19 total assists for the season and 62 turnovers. Another starter Hunter has 65 & 65. That's 3 of their starters. The season stats show it and the Baylor game proved it again. They can be turned over. Does anyone think that the intense pressing defense might show up again this coming game?
Finally, OSU scores 67 points a game! They only have 3 players in double figures. The next two score 7 & 6 each. That's only 3 players to cover instead of 5. They shoot 35% as a team on 3 point shots. Not too scary.
The game will be competitive for awhile and then UConn will pull away. A 20 point win sounds about right, but I would not be surprised if it is a whole lot more.
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Sounds about right Philly for a score. Baylor made OSU's defense look good by running that one man, mud wrestling offense of theirs. It was difficult to watch.
 
OSU, correct me if I'm wrong, has not really seen such a complete team like UCONN. All of the OSU players are also playing in the Final Four for the first time, so the shock of playing on the biggest stage of the season might hurt them. If they come out of the gates running, UCONN is going to have a tough game. If OSU gets blinded by the lights of the Final Four, UCONN could put them away with 21 points.
 
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UcMiami said:
Philly Coach - The NCAA tournament history is full of stories of teams putting it all together for up to six games - 3 years ago Louisville pulled it all together for 5 games and then ran out of gas, while Uconn was putting it together for six games. If you have a really good defense, which OSU does (leads the nation in FG % defense), then you just have to get your shooters on a hot streak to make serious waves. TN this year pulled it together for 3 games, Washington has done it for 4 games, Syracuse for four, Stanford for three.

I agree that the turnovers are likely to be a real issue for them. TN beat them because of that, and because they refused to play a zone defense against faster guards.

But listen to Kim's presser and one lament she had was that their fourth scorer hit some real dagger shots. Geno in his lamented about one of the TX players who had hit 5 threes all year coming in and nailing them against Uconn. Weird things happen against Uconn, and against every team in the NCAAs - Stanford shoots out 15% higher against ND then their yearly average and ND is sitting at home watching.

That said - I have no idea how they are going to deal with Tuck and Stewart - Hambin will get eaten alive if she tries to guard either away from the basket, and if she does come away from the basket then Moriah will be doing lay-up practice. And the team speed and switching by Uconn should give them serious problems on offense.

They have a smart coach and smart upper class players and they have six days to prepare. It should be interesting to watch, and I am not taking anything for granted.
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UC- You are right again. I totally agree that anything can happen. I was there at the Villanova-Georgetown dream game in 1985. I just wanted to bring up some stats that could help explain what might happen. At this point, I would rather be UConn than OSU----just sayin!
 
PhillyCoach said:
UC- You are right again. I totally agree that anything can happen. I was there at the Villanova-Georgetown dream game in 1985. I just wanted to bring up some stats that could help explain what might happen. At this point, I would rather be UConn than OSU----just sayin!
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You are so right, anything can happen. Don't expect it to, but it could happen. I watched that game, and couldn't believe Georgetown lost.
 
If we play our A game. We will all be posting how good the girls are playing and shooting the ball. We will brag about our defensive pressure and the girls running a lay up drill. I guess I am optimistic because this what I think will happen. UConn 95-55. Sure hope I am right.
 
Buzzyboy said:
I know a win is a win is a win and one point is enough but that very, very rarely happens and with their pedigree and having been there before and the talent involved, I'm inclined to think EVERY advantage is UConn's.
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I emotionally agree with you. But intellectually, I appreciate that the same appraisal applied to Notre Dame (until they would have faced UConn in the finals). In fact, at every level of the tournament, it usually (not always!) applies to the higher seeded school, and yet, so many upsets....
 
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PhillyCoach said:
Does everyone know that Baylor scored all their first half points through OSU turnovers or Baylor offensive rebounds? Yes, every point. Not one from a set play/half-court offense. IMHO UConn will probably score more points in the normal fashion than that.
Key point - Geno has stated that as a team--you are who you have been all season. Sure, teams can play out of their minds for a quarter or two, maybe even 3, or that super game from the heavens. The odds are-- probably not against UConn.
Baylor showed that OSU can be disrupted and can be forced into turnovers. The OSU guards are not quick, not real athletic, they are smart, and they don't have great handles. Oh my! Guess what OSU season stats were for turnovers? They were #328 in the nation--almost last. They were -4.75 per game in turnovers. Weisner, listed at 5"10, is the top OSU scorer and has 76 assists and 87 turnovers. Hamblin is another top scorer and has 19 total assists for the season and 62 turnovers. Another starter Hunter has 65 & 65. That's 3 of their starters. The season stats show it and the Baylor game proved it again. They can be turned over. Does anyone think that the intense pressing defense might show up again this coming game?
Finally, OSU scores 67 points a game! They only have 3 players in double figures. The next two score 7 & 6 each. That's only 3 players to cover instead of 5. They shoot 35% as a team on 3 point shots. Not too scary.
The game will be competitive for awhile and then UConn will pull away. A 20 point win sounds about right, but I would not be surprised if it is a whole lot more.
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Well done, coach. Judging only from what I saw of the Baylor game (and it might be an outlier), OSU is unlikely to win IF:

- They score 50 points.
- Hamblin is on the bench for half the game with foul trouble.
- They commit 19 turnovers, particularly the live-ball kind.
- They don't make at least 10-12 three-pointers.
- UConn plays its 'A' game.

I see OSU trying to slow the game pace down to a crawl, throwing up 20-25 threes, packing in their 'd' super-tight, and reducing UConn possessions by using as much of the shot-clock as possible.
Anticipate an 'ugly' win, probably not a cover- and I'll gladly take it.
 
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I am really looking forward to this game a lot, I graduated from Oregon State in 1975, my brother who lives in Washington State says I need to root for OSU, I tell him I left Oregon in 1983 and have lived in Connecticut since 1983, I can't pull for the Beavers, but I am for the Washington Huskies, but only against Syracuse. I can't recall the women playing basketball when I went there, but the boys team was not half bad then. I am hoping for a Huskies vs Huskies final with Uconn winning number 11.
 
warbler13 said:
UConn had their B game. There will not be a repeat of another B game. UConn by 21 is about right!!! On the other hand if UConn play a C game then anything can happens!!!
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UConn never has a C game on defense, do they???? I think UConn's C game is a winner unless Oregon State plays their PERFECT GAME.
 
warbler13 said:
UConn had their B game. There will not be a repeat of another B game. UConn by 21 is about right!!! On the other hand if UConn play a C game then anything can happens!!!
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UConn never has a C game on defense, do they???? I think UConn's C game is a winner unless Oregon State plays their PERFECT GAME.
Kibitzer said:
I found relief from the tedium of the game when watching the hilarious Charles Barkley-Spike Lee-Samuel Jackson commercials.:D
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In the first minutes of their game, I thought "how did Oregon State even make the tournament", they started off so badly! They looked totally dysfunctional but obviously they started playing better and making some three's that opened things up. Initially they weren't even getting a shot off on the offensive end.
 
OSU has SIZE!!! One thing that nobody can deny. If they rain 3s, play defense, limit fouls, reduce turnovers, then we will have an extremely exciting game. UConn needs to play their A game or closed to it. It's going to be VERY difficult. Respect your opponent!!!!
 
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Kibitzer said:
I found relief from the tedium of the game when watching the hilarious Charles Barkley-Spike Lee-Samuel Jackson commercials.:D
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Love those commercials, but they have a small problem - can you immediately bring to mind what product they are advertising?!
 
UcMiami said:
Love those commercials, but they have a small problem - can you immediately bring to mind what product they are advertising?!
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Capital One
 
It is indeed Capital One, but what that has to do with the commercials isn't entirely clear.

Monday night was the first time I'd seen an Oregon State game from start to finish this year, and I'm not totally sure what to make of them. They shot the lights out from 3 in the first half, and their offense seemed to be humming. After halftime, Baylor really amped up its defensive intensity, both pressing fullcourt and pressuring the ball more in the halfcourt, which forced Oregon State into a bunch of turnovers and difficult shots. Oregon State shot 0-for-5 on 3-pointers in the second half and made only 2 field goals in the fourth quarter. Someone who's seen more of them can correct me, but to me they seem to be a smart, tough team that likes to run its offense at a certain pace, but one that can be forced into mistakes if you can speed them up.

Oregon State's defense is solid, but Baylor helped them out a bit by trying to make a bunch of difficult individual plays in the lane. Also, if (as UcM said above) the Beavers refused to play zone against Tennessee of all teams, does that mean they're going to play man-to-man against UConn for 40 minutes? UConn has seen so much zone this year that I think I can see their eyes light up when an opponent comes out in man-to-man.

My biggest concern about this game (aside from injuries, shots not falling, and all the other things that apply to any game) is probably rebounding, especially defensive rebounding. Oregon State looks to be very tough on the glass, and if UConn has another rebounding game like it had against Texas, it could spell trouble. As with the Texas game, I think UConn's opponent has more things to be worried about than UConn has, but Oregon State could still pose some problems if a few things break their way. As always, this late in the tournament, I'm not about to take anything for granted.
 
Jimbo said:
It is indeed Capital One, but what that has to do with the commercials isn't entirely clear.

Monday night was the first time I'd seen an Oregon State game from start to finish this year, and I'm not totally sure what to make of them. They shot the lights out from 3 in the first half, and their offense seemed to be humming. After halftime, Baylor really amped up its defensive intensity, both pressing fullcourt and pressuring the ball more in the halfcourt, which forced Oregon State into a bunch of turnovers and difficult shots. Oregon State shot 0-for-5 on 3-pointers in the second half and made only 2 field goals in the fourth quarter. Someone who's seen more of them can correct me, but to me they seem to be a smart, tough team that likes to run its offense at a certain pace, but one that can be forced into mistakes if you can speed them up.

Oregon State's defense is solid, but Baylor helped them out a bit by trying to make a bunch of difficult individual plays in the lane. Also, if (as UcM said above) the Beavers refused to play zone against Tennessee of all teams, does that mean they're going to play man-to-man against UConn for 40 minutes? UConn has seen so much zone this year that I think I can see their eyes light up when an opponent comes out in man-to-man.

My biggest concern about this game (aside from injuries, shots not falling, and all the other things that apply to any game) is probably rebounding, especially defensive rebounding. Oregon State looks to be very tough on the glass, and if UConn has another rebounding game like it had against Texas, it could spell trouble. As with the Texas game, I think UConn's opponent has more things to be worried about than UConn has, but Oregon State could still pose some problems if a few things break their way. As always, this late in the tournament, I'm not about to take anything for granted.
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Jimbo: I agree with your analysis. In the 4th Q both teams played really poorly. Looked to me like a race to the bottom which Baylor won. How many field goals did Baylor have in the 4th Q?
 
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Baroloboy said:
Jimbo: I agree with your analysis. In the 4th Q both teams played really poorly. Looked to me like a race to the bottom which Baylor won. How many field goals did Baylor have in the 4th Q?
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I agree. I think both teams played hard but not particularly well.

Baylor in the 4th quarter shot 5-for-15 from the field and turned the ball over 3 times. For its part, Oregon State in the 4th shot only 2-for-6 with 4 turnovers, but they also drew a bunch of fouls on Baylor and went 8-for-10 from the line.
 
Jimbo said:
It is indeed Capital One, but what that has to do with the commercials isn't entirely clear.

Monday night was the first time I'd seen an Oregon State game from start to finish this year, and I'm not totally sure what to make of them. They shot the lights out from 3 in the first half, and their offense seemed to be humming. After halftime, Baylor really amped up its defensive intensity, both pressing fullcourt and pressuring the ball more in the halfcourt, which forced Oregon State into a bunch of turnovers and difficult shots. Oregon State shot 0-for-5 on 3-pointers in the second half and made only 2 field goals in the fourth quarter. Someone who's seen more of them can correct me, but to me they seem to be a smart, tough team that likes to run its offense at a certain pace, but one that can be forced into mistakes if you can speed them up.

Oregon State's defense is solid, but Baylor helped them out a bit by trying to make a bunch of difficult individual plays in the lane. Also, if (as UcM said above) the Beavers refused to play zone against Tennessee of all teams, does that mean they're going to play man-to-man against UConn for 40 minutes? UConn has seen so much zone this year that I think I can see their eyes light up when an opponent comes out in man-to-man.

My biggest concern about this game (aside from injuries, shots not falling, and all the other things that apply to any game) is probably rebounding, especially defensive rebounding. Oregon State looks to be very tough on the glass, and if UConn has another rebounding game like it had against Texas, it could spell trouble. As with the Texas game, I think UConn's opponent has more things to be worried about than UConn has, but Oregon State could still pose some problems if a few things break their way. As always, this late in the tournament, I'm not about to take anything for granted.
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Great post Jimbo. I agree with you FWIW. I've seen OSU play a few more times, specifically against Tennessee, in their loss to Stanford about a month ago, and then in the Pac 12 title game.

The things that REALLY stood out to me, perhaps more than any other team in WCBB, is that Oregon State is a totally Jekyll and Hyde type of team. Against Tennessee, they totally stunk up the joint in the first half, but stormed back in the 2nd half and would have won if the game had lasted about 2 minutes more.

Against Stanford, they were blown out in the first half, lost the 3rd quarter, but played a good 4th quarter. However more recently against UCLA, they were up something like 27 points at the half, but got crushed in the 2nd half, winning the game only by 12. And it's not like UCLA had a good 5 minutes against them - UCLA beat them by 5 in the 3rd, and then by 10 in the 4th.

My point is that Oregon State seems unable to put together 4 quarters of quality basketball and IMHO, that will be their undoing vs. UCONN. They may come out and drain acrobatic 3's, and they do run some nice offense, but ultimately, UCONN's "brain farts" don't seem to ever last for more than 2-3 minutes. Oregon State's seem to last up to 20 minutes. Recipe for disaster.

I do think Ruek will have them as ready as possible. BUT... this is the first time they are playing UCONN. Compare how Texas did last year vs. this year. I don't think they will be prepared for the kind of defense they will see, and those passing lanes that led to open 3's vs. Baylor (or anyone else) will hopefully disappear vs. UCONN.

I think UCONN wins by 15-18, as I think they are better than Texas (but I think vs. Texas we only had our B+ game). If UCONN plays like they did vs. Miss State, or brings their A- game, it could be a 25+ point shellacking.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State shoots out of their minds in the first half and keeps it close, something like 38-32. We should be able to pull away in the second half -- Geno usually knows how to adjust, especially on defense.

I think we'll come close to covering, probably 80-60, plus or minus 3 points on either side.

OSU +21 sounds about right. They're a 2 seed, like Texas, and the margin should be similar.
 
JoePgh said:
I do NOT think UConn will beat Oregon State by 21 points. My guess would be about 8 points. Oregon State will slow the game down, will not make dumb mistakes like failing to guard Stewie on an in-bounds play, and will take high-percentage shots. I would predict a score like 63-55. Oregon State will have a small lead at some point in the second half.

In a game between two good-shooting, disciplined teams playing intelligently to their respective strengths, the superior talent on the UConn side will prevail, but not by much.

The game will be good for women's basketball.
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Joe, I respect your opinion. Just remember that the Vegas point spreads are usually pretty accurate. If they're not right on the money, they're very close. I'm very comfortable with their point line.
I'd be concerned if the line were -8 1/2. THAT would suggest as you do, that the margin of victory will be smaller than usual, and UConn is in for a dog fight. As I'm sure you know, UConn will bring a completely different dynamic into the game than Baylor did. They can't expect the things they did against Baylor, will work against UConn. ;)
 
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