Current Point Spread

[Carnac]

I hesitate to remind everyone that is concerned about OSU and their potential of presenting a real and serious threat to the huskies. We (fans) recognize OSU's recent history and success.
We also note that those achievements were not reached against UConn, lest I remind you is the #1 defensive team in the country.

I'm not trying to be cocky or disrespectful of OSU. I'm going to keep it classy. But ALL of you know that NO ONE plays defense like UConn does. A week ago, we were all concerned about Mississippi State, and the problems they presented. Their leading scorer Victoria Vivians who had run rough shod over all of their previous opponents to that point., was only able to muster 6 points. UConn's defense shut her down.
I'm in no way suggesting that we should not be concerned, but OSU did lose 4 games this year. In those losses they scored 50, 61, 51 and 54 points respectively. I think this illustration speaks for itself.

All of their loses were to ranked teams, but only one team, (#3 Notre Dame) was to a top 10 team. I would submit to you that UConn is just slightly more competitive than any of those teams.
Are they on a roll? yes. OSU is currently on an 8 game winning streak.; but so is UConn. The Beaver's last loss was on Feb 26, 2016 to Stanford in Palo Alto. Coincidentally, UConn's last loss was also to Stanford in Palo Alto 2 years ago. The Huskies have been on their our roll just a little bit longer.

Look back over the season and take note of how many super stars were held way below their regular season scoring average. Kelsey Mitchell (8 points), A'ja Wilson (I realize she did not play the entire game due to injury - 13 points), Alaina Coates (2 points), Tiffany Mitchell (12 points), Victoria Vivians (6 points), etc.

UConn does not give teams "open looks" on a consistent basis that other teams do. You just can't do the things against UConn, that you can do against other teams. UConn is the #1 team in scoring defense in the country, and they live up to that ranking every game. Its all going to come down to scoring. You've got to figure that UConn is going to score at least 70 points (I'm being conservative). Here's the $64,000 question: What is OSU going to do that Mississippi State (28-8) was not able to do?

UConn held to 38 points. MSU scored in double figures only in 4th quarter, after the game had been decided, and Geno emptied his bench. MSU was not chopped liver, and they lost by 60.
Even if OSU is 30 points better than MSU, they still lose by 30. So, the question is can OSU score 70 against UConn? Its possible, but I don't think so. I think UConn can keep OSU under 65.

I'm going to borrow the phrase that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers uttered in response to some of the Packers faithful that had begun to voice their concerns, because the Packers had just lost their second game in a row. Rodgers told them: "R-E-L-A-X".

 

[cabbie191]

This has "trap game" written all over it. My karma sensor is in a state of flummox.

Agree with you 100%.

OSU will do well to focus on UConn and not look ahead to playing the 'Cuse/Washington victor!

 

[LO TRADER]

I hesitate to remind everyone that is concerned about OSU and their potential of presenting a real and serious threat to the huskies. We (fans) recognize OSU's recent history and success.
We also note that those achievements were not reached against UConn, lest I remind you is the #1 defensive team in the country.

I'm not trying to be cocky or disrespectful of OSU. I'm going to keep it classy. But ALL of you know that NO ONE plays defense like UConn does. A week ago, we were all concerned about Mississippi State, and the problems they presented. Their leading scorer Victoria Vivians who had run rough shod over all of their previous opponents to that point., was only able to muster 6 points. UConn's defense shut her down.
I'm in no way suggesting that we should not be concerned, but OSU did lose 4 games this year. In those losses they scored 50, 61, 51 and 54 points respectively. I think this illustration speaks for itself.

All of their loses were to ranked teams, but only one team, (#3 Notre Dame) was to a top 10 team. I would submit to you that UConn is just slightly more competitive than any of those teams.
Are they on a roll? yes. OSU is currently on an 8 game winning streak.; but so is UConn. The Beaver's last loss was on Feb 26, 2016 to Stanford in Palo Alto. Coincidentally, UConn's last loss was also to Stanford in Palo Alto 2 years ago. The Huskies have been on their our roll just a little bit longer.

Look back over the season and take note of how many super stars were held way below their regular season scoring average. Kelsey Mitchell (8 points), A'ja Wilson (I realize she did not play the entire game due to injury - 13 points), Alaina Coates (2 points), Tiffany Mitchell (12 points), Victoria Vivians (6 points), etc.

UConn does not give teams "open looks" on a consistent basis that other teams do. You just can't do the things against UConn, that you can do against other teams. UConn is the #1 team in scoring defense in the country, and they live up to that ranking every game. Its all going to come down to scoring. You've got to figure that UConn is going to score at least 70 points (I'm being conservative). Here's the $64,000 question: What is OSU going to do that Mississippi State (28-8) was not able to do?

UConn held to 38 points. MSU scored in double figures only in 4th quarter, after the game had been decided, and Geno emptied his bench. MSU was not chopped liver, and they lost by 60.
Even if OSU is 30 points better than MSU, they still lose by 30. So, the question is can OSU score 70 against UConn? Its possible, but I don't think so. I think UConn can keep OSU under 65.

I'm going to borrow the phrase that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers uttered in response to some of the Packers faithful that had begun to voice their concerns, because the Packers had just lost their second game in a row. Rodgers told them: "R-E-L-A-X".

Couldn't agree more with you. OSU's only chance is if they can completely disrupt UCONN's offense and keep UCONN's score under 60. Only a beyond believable defensive result by OSU will get them past UCONN. And, that of course is going to be a miracle. As my other OSU best friend pointed out "Miracle on Ice" Deux!

 

[cabbie191]

Question for Lo Trader - Do you expect a good turnout of OSU fans at the game?

Thanks for your posts.

 

[Carnac]

Have to disagree with this comparison. Stanford caught UCONN early in the season at a time when UCONN was playing it's second game of the season with 2 new starters who were replacing 2 departing AA players.
This UCONN team the same four starters with 70+ games together.

I agree with you Coco. I attended that game. UConn had it in cruise control most of the game. They had just come off of drubbing UC Davis 3 days prior by 59 points (102-43), and were feeling pretty good about themselves. For whatever reason, they were just not ready to play.

They didn't hunker down and get serious until there was 3 minutes left in the game. Remember, they had a 10 point lead at the 6 minute mark, but Stanford had really begun to chip away at the score. That night, almost everything Stanford put up, went in.

Stanford's bench and the crowd were very animated throughout the game. Stanford never took their foot off the gas. The biggest shot of the night was Amber Orrange's 3 pointer from the right corner. That was the dagger. That shot hit an artery.If I remember correctly, that shot (as the clock was winding down) sent the game into overtime. If she misses that shot, we win.

One more basket, or one more made free throw in regulation, and we're not having this conversation. There was a large contingent of UConn fans in attendance that night. We all left the building after the game in shock.

Personnel changes were made, team resolve was heightened, and as they say, the rest is history. I thought at the time (and posted it) that that particular lost during the first week of the season, was the best thing that could have happened to UConn.

As a team, they never forgot that loss, and what it felt like the rest of the season. A record of 38-1 is not bad, as long as that "1" is not the last game of the year.

 

[LO TRADER]

Question for Lo Trader - Do you expect a good turnout of OSU fans at the game?

Thanks for your posts.

Hard to know. OSU had quite a crowd at the Dallas Regional, and I suspect OSU Fans will travel to Indy--I mean, there is no guarantee OSU will be back to Final Four in the near term!

 

[nd2tty]

Full disclosure: OSU alum/OSU Fan here. Love your UCONN Blog, and the UCONN Bloggers. Can't say I disagree with much on UCONN Bloggers view of the OSU vs UCONN game Sunday. I will say that having watched OSU Women's game for the past 4 years is that these OSU ladies are not afraid. They may still get steamrolled by UCONN, but they are not afraid. They are truly excited to have this opportunity to play the best team in the country (for however may seasons now). I think your coach also recognizes this. I think there are some mis-perceptions about OSU players too. Gabby Hanson doesn't get coverage from the press, but if OSU is to have a good game against UCONN Sunday, Gabby Hanson's defense on Jefferson will be one of the main reasons. Like Jefferson, she is a wonderful on ball defender. I have no idea how OSU will cover Breanna. OSU plays straight up man defense, and Ruth has no chance of checking Breanna, much less any mobile post player. Thanks for letting me blog here. I wish for an excellent game, that goes the entire 4 quarters.

It will be interesting if Hanson checks Jefferson: then Weise takes Nurse or Samuelson? If Weisner takes Samuelson, then you have a 5'' height difference (and you can bet Samuelson won't be guarding Weisner on UConn defensive end). It would probably make more sense to have Weise take Samuelson? On the UConn end, if Jefferson checks Weisner, then there will be lots of offensive/defensive man-marking switching.

The trouble with playing man against UConn, in my eyes, won't be Stewart going off (she will do that anyway, against man or zone), it will be Tuck. She could go for 25+ against man-marking by Hunter/Hamblin/Gulich.

 

[Jimbo]

It will be interesting if Hanson checks Jefferson: then Weise takes Nurse or Samuelson? If Weisner takes Samuelson, then you have a 5'' height difference (and you can bet Samuelson won't be guarding Weisner on UConn defensive end). It would probably make more sense to have Weise take Samuelson? On the UConn end, if Jefferson checks Weisner, then there will be lots of offensive/defensive man-marking switching.

The trouble with playing man against UConn, in my eyes, won't be Stewart going off (she will do that anyway, against man or zone), it will be Tuck. She could go for 25+ against man-marking by Hunter/Hamblin/Gulich.

I think that's an excellent point. Against a team playing man, Tuck typically has a field day drawing the other team's big out to the perimeter and then driving past her to the rim. South Carolina probably sees that happen over and over again in their sleep. She really is a matchup nightmare, not quite as much as Stewie is, but close.

 

[Jimbo]

I agree with you Coco. I attended that game. UConn had it in cruise control most of the game. They had just come off of drubbing UC Davis 3 days prior by 59 points (102-43), and were feeling pretty good about themselves. For whatever reason, they were just not ready to play.

They didn't hunker down and get serious until there was 3 minutes left in the game. Remember, they had a 10 point lead at the 6 minute mark, but Stanford had really begun to chip away at the score. That night, almost everything Stanford put up, went in.

Stanford's bench and the crowd were very animated throughout the game. Stanford never took their foot off the gas. The biggest shot of the night was Amber Orrange's 3 pointer from the right corner. That was the dagger. That shot hit an artery.If I remember correctly, that shot (as the clock was winding down) sent the game into overtime. If she misses that shot, we win.

One more basket, or one more made free throw in regulation, and we're not having this conversation. There was a large contingent of UConn fans in attendance that night. We all left the building after the game in shock.

Personnel changes were made, team resolve was heightened, and as they say, the rest is history. I thought at the time (and posted it) that that particular lost during the first week of the season, was the best thing that could have happened to UConn.

As a team, they never forgot that loss, and what it felt like the rest of the season. A record of 38-1 is not bad, as long as that "1" is not the last game of the year.

I can't say I particularly like to relive that game in my mind, but I agree with everything you say here. I'll throw in one more thing that is almost always overlooked about that game. That was the first season in quite a while that Stanford did not have an Ogwumike sister on the roster, and Tara, to her credit, adjusted to the change in personnel by completely overhauling her offense in the offseason. Since that was only Stanford's second game of the season as well, I think it's reasonable to believe that Geno and his staff may not yet have known quite what to expect from Stanford offensively or been able to scout them as effectively as usual. Not that I'm making excuses; Stanford was just a little bit better on that night and deserved to win. But I think the newfangledness of the Cardinal offense was a contributing factor.

 

[baggerbob]

You also had 2 starters, one who was offensively limited, the other defensively limited. Once Geno made the switch, you had 5 players, who could play both offensively, and defensively. Morgan, and Kia also brought toughness to the starting lineup.

 

[BigBird]

Las Vegas says 95% chance for UConn win against OSU. And 93% chance that UConn wins the NC. I cannot recall ever seeing a sports event of any kind with this kind of confidence (arrogance?) level.

The Huskies should be favored, but by so much? Amazing.

 

[LO TRADER]

Just read an interview with a few of the OSU players, and, unless deception is being deployed, Deven Hunter is going to start out checking Breanna Stewart. Not sure about the rest of the matchups, but again I feel confident that Gabby Hanson will check Moriah.

 

[Henry]

The only chance for Oregon State is if we play our worst game of the year and they shoot lights out on 3's. 15 made 3's might do it but I doubt they would do that well. In games when we give up a lot of 3's early, we tend to clamp down in the second half, like with Dayton last year.

 

[bags27]

I'm going to borrow the phrase that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers uttered in response to some of the Packers faithful that had begun to voice their concerns, because the Packers had just lost their second game in a row. Rodgers told them: "R-E-L-A-X".

Funny, I don't remember the Pack winning the Superbowl that year.

 

[TitleTown]

It will be interesting if Hanson checks Jefferson: then Weise takes Nurse or Samuelson? If Weisner takes Samuelson, then you have a 5'' height difference (and you can bet Samuelson won't be guarding Weisner on UConn defensive end). It would probably make more sense to have Weise take Samuelson? On the UConn end, if Jefferson checks Weisner, then there will be lots of offensive/defensive man-marking switching.

The trouble with playing man against UConn, in my eyes, won't be Stewart going off (she will do that anyway, against man or zone), it will be Tuck. She could go for 25+ against man-marking by Hunter/Hamblin/Gulich.

I agree that the match ups in this game are very intriguing. It will definitely be a chess match between coaches.

 

[TitleTown]

The only chance for Oregon State is if we play our worst game of the year and they shoot lights out on 3's. 15 made 3's might do it but I doubt they would do that well. In games when we give up a lot of 3's early, we tend to clamp down in the second half, like with Dayton last year.

I think that UConn is the better team but I don't think that people realize how good of a team that OSU is. There 2 guards Weisner(.450 3 pt %) and Wiese(.376 3 pt%) could give UConn fits. OSU is a very good defensive team as well that is very long at every position.

 

[LO TRADER]

Excited for this game to be played. I sense that most UCONN fans are comfortable for obvious reasons. I also think most OSU fans are comfortable, but for different reasons (we are just excited for this opportunity to play the best, and measure ourselves against the standard in NCAA Women's basketball). Thank you again for allowing me to blog with you all. So impressed with this site, and, the great respect you show for your opponents and your opponent fans!

 

[TitleTown]

Just read an interview with a few of the OSU players, and, unless deception is being deployed, Deven Hunter is going to start out checking Breanna Stewart. Not sure about the rest of the matchups, but again I feel confident that Gabby Hanson will check Moriah.

I am thinking:
OSU guarding UConn Uconn guarding OSU
Hanson/Jefferson Jefferson/Weisner
Hamblin/Tuck Tuck/Hunter
Hunter/Stewart Stewart/Hamblin
Wiese/Samuelson Samuelson/Hanson
Weisner/Nurse Nurse/Wiese

 

[Carnac]

Funny, I don't remember the Pack winning the Superbowl that year.

They didn't. I said the fans were concerned because the Pack lost 2 games in a row. The Packers had not been playing well at the time, and dropped 2 consecutive games, which is a rare occurrence for them.
The natives were getting restless. Rodgers told them to Relax. I made no mention of a Superbowl.

 

[bags27]

They didn't. Rodgers told them to Relax. I made no mention of a Superbowl.

Then maybe they shouldn't have relaxed.

 

[Roundball fan]

Excited for this game to be played. I sense that most UCONN fans are comfortable for obvious reasons. I also think most OSU fans are comfortable, but for different reasons (we are just excited for this opportunity to play the best, and measure ourselves against the standard in NCAA Women's basketball). Thank you again for allowing me to blog with you all. So impressed with this site, and, the great respect you show for your opponents and your opponent fans!

It is nice for us to here from the other side. Good luck tomorrow and in the future.

 

[Henry]

Excited for this game to be played. I sense that most UCONN fans are comfortable for obvious reasons. I also think most OSU fans are comfortable, but for different reasons (we are just excited for this opportunity to play the best, and measure ourselves against the standard in NCAA Women's basketball). Thank you again for allowing me to blog with you all. So impressed with this site, and, the great respect you show for your opponents and your opponent fans!

UCONN fans are never comfortable. If we are comfortable it is not because of who we are playing but because we have been there before. Some fans may be arrogant but most are not and do not take it for granted.

 

[UcMiami]

Excited for this game to be played. I sense that most UCONN fans are comfortable for obvious reasons. I also think most OSU fans are comfortable, but for different reasons (we are just excited for this opportunity to play the best, and measure ourselves against the standard in NCAA Women's basketball). Thank you again for allowing me to blog with you all. So impressed with this site, and, the great respect you show for your opponents and your opponent fans!

After these next two games this site stays pretty active but with a lot more Off Topic threads, but we get cranked up for USA basketball teams of all levels and with the Olympics, lots of stuff and then come late August it picks up with the college stuff again.

Please stick around if not for the summer then when college ball gets rolling again - we love having some insight on the other conferences that we don't see too much, and as you see, we are pretty mild mannered. This site is as good as it is partly because we do get visitors from competitor fan bases to add flavor to our own homerism.

 

[Carnac]

Then maybe they shouldn't have relaxed.

Maybe not, but that's between Rodgers and the Packer's fans. You and I have nothing to do with that. I just borrowed the phrase.

 

[bags27]

Then, I hope we do RELAX but that the outcome is better!