Current Point Spread

[Icebear]

Love those commercials, but they have a small problem - can you immediately bring to mind what product they are advertising?!

Capital One

 

[Jimbo]

It is indeed Capital One, but what that has to do with the commercials isn't entirely clear.

Monday night was the first time I'd seen an Oregon State game from start to finish this year, and I'm not totally sure what to make of them. They shot the lights out from 3 in the first half, and their offense seemed to be humming. After halftime, Baylor really amped up its defensive intensity, both pressing fullcourt and pressuring the ball more in the halfcourt, which forced Oregon State into a bunch of turnovers and difficult shots. Oregon State shot 0-for-5 on 3-pointers in the second half and made only 2 field goals in the fourth quarter. Someone who's seen more of them can correct me, but to me they seem to be a smart, tough team that likes to run its offense at a certain pace, but one that can be forced into mistakes if you can speed them up.

Oregon State's defense is solid, but Baylor helped them out a bit by trying to make a bunch of difficult individual plays in the lane. Also, if (as UcM said above) the Beavers refused to play zone against Tennessee of all teams, does that mean they're going to play man-to-man against UConn for 40 minutes? UConn has seen so much zone this year that I think I can see their eyes light up when an opponent comes out in man-to-man.

My biggest concern about this game (aside from injuries, shots not falling, and all the other things that apply to any game) is probably rebounding, especially defensive rebounding. Oregon State looks to be very tough on the glass, and if UConn has another rebounding game like it had against Texas, it could spell trouble. As with the Texas game, I think UConn's opponent has more things to be worried about than UConn has, but Oregon State could still pose some problems if a few things break their way. As always, this late in the tournament, I'm not about to take anything for granted.

 

[Baroloboy]

It is indeed Capital One, but what that has to do with the commercials isn't entirely clear.

Monday night was the first time I'd seen an Oregon State game from start to finish this year, and I'm not totally sure what to make of them. They shot the lights out from 3 in the first half, and their offense seemed to be humming. After halftime, Baylor really amped up its defensive intensity, both pressing fullcourt and pressuring the ball more in the halfcourt, which forced Oregon State into a bunch of turnovers and difficult shots. Oregon State shot 0-for-5 on 3-pointers in the second half and made only 2 field goals in the fourth quarter. Someone who's seen more of them can correct me, but to me they seem to be a smart, tough team that likes to run its offense at a certain pace, but one that can be forced into mistakes if you can speed them up.

Oregon State's defense is solid, but Baylor helped them out a bit by trying to make a bunch of difficult individual plays in the lane. Also, if (as UcM said above) the Beavers refused to play zone against Tennessee of all teams, does that mean they're going to play man-to-man against UConn for 40 minutes? UConn has seen so much zone this year that I think I can see their eyes light up when an opponent comes out in man-to-man.

My biggest concern about this game (aside from injuries, shots not falling, and all the other things that apply to any game) is probably rebounding, especially defensive rebounding. Oregon State looks to be very tough on the glass, and if UConn has another rebounding game like it had against Texas, it could spell trouble. As with the Texas game, I think UConn's opponent has more things to be worried about than UConn has, but Oregon State could still pose some problems if a few things break their way. As always, this late in the tournament, I'm not about to take anything for granted.

Jimbo: I agree with your analysis. In the 4th Q both teams played really poorly. Looked to me like a race to the bottom which Baylor won. How many field goals did Baylor have in the 4th Q?

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Capital One

My Fav is Barkley missing the "throw" at the toll booth.

 

[Jimbo]

Jimbo: I agree with your analysis. In the 4th Q both teams played really poorly. Looked to me like a race to the bottom which Baylor won. How many field goals did Baylor have in the 4th Q?

I agree. I think both teams played hard but not particularly well.

Baylor in the 4th quarter shot 5-for-15 from the field and turned the ball over 3 times. For its part, Oregon State in the 4th shot only 2-for-6 with 4 turnovers, but they also drew a bunch of fouls on Baylor and went 8-for-10 from the line.

 

[DogWarden]

I'll take UConn with the Vegas spread.

 

[EricLA]

It is indeed Capital One, but what that has to do with the commercials isn't entirely clear.

Monday night was the first time I'd seen an Oregon State game from start to finish this year, and I'm not totally sure what to make of them. They shot the lights out from 3 in the first half, and their offense seemed to be humming. After halftime, Baylor really amped up its defensive intensity, both pressing fullcourt and pressuring the ball more in the halfcourt, which forced Oregon State into a bunch of turnovers and difficult shots. Oregon State shot 0-for-5 on 3-pointers in the second half and made only 2 field goals in the fourth quarter. Someone who's seen more of them can correct me, but to me they seem to be a smart, tough team that likes to run its offense at a certain pace, but one that can be forced into mistakes if you can speed them up.

Oregon State's defense is solid, but Baylor helped them out a bit by trying to make a bunch of difficult individual plays in the lane. Also, if (as UcM said above) the Beavers refused to play zone against Tennessee of all teams, does that mean they're going to play man-to-man against UConn for 40 minutes? UConn has seen so much zone this year that I think I can see their eyes light up when an opponent comes out in man-to-man.

My biggest concern about this game (aside from injuries, shots not falling, and all the other things that apply to any game) is probably rebounding, especially defensive rebounding. Oregon State looks to be very tough on the glass, and if UConn has another rebounding game like it had against Texas, it could spell trouble. As with the Texas game, I think UConn's opponent has more things to be worried about than UConn has, but Oregon State could still pose some problems if a few things break their way. As always, this late in the tournament, I'm not about to take anything for granted.

Great post Jimbo. I agree with you FWIW. I've seen OSU play a few more times, specifically against Tennessee, in their loss to Stanford about a month ago, and then in the Pac 12 title game.

The things that REALLY stood out to me, perhaps more than any other team in WCBB, is that Oregon State is a totally Jekyll and Hyde type of team. Against Tennessee, they totally stunk up the joint in the first half, but stormed back in the 2nd half and would have won if the game had lasted about 2 minutes more.

Against Stanford, they were blown out in the first half, lost the 3rd quarter, but played a good 4th quarter. However more recently against UCLA, they were up something like 27 points at the half, but got crushed in the 2nd half, winning the game only by 12. And it's not like UCLA had a good 5 minutes against them - UCLA beat them by 5 in the 3rd, and then by 10 in the 4th.

My point is that Oregon State seems unable to put together 4 quarters of quality basketball and IMHO, that will be their undoing vs. UCONN. They may come out and drain acrobatic 3's, and they do run some nice offense, but ultimately, UCONN's "brain farts" don't seem to ever last for more than 2-3 minutes. Oregon State's seem to last up to 20 minutes. Recipe for disaster.

I do think Ruek will have them as ready as possible. BUT... this is the first time they are playing UCONN. Compare how Texas did last year vs. this year. I don't think they will be prepared for the kind of defense they will see, and those passing lanes that led to open 3's vs. Baylor (or anyone else) will hopefully disappear vs. UCONN.

I think UCONN wins by 15-18, as I think they are better than Texas (but I think vs. Texas we only had our B+ game). If UCONN plays like they did vs. Miss State, or brings their A- game, it could be a 25+ point shellacking.

 

[HardHatGuy#2]

My Fav is Barkley missing the "throw" at the toll booth.

The Round Mound of Sit-Around

...or maybe #34 with fries...

 

[Tenspro2002]

I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State shoots out of their minds in the first half and keeps it close, something like 38-32. We should be able to pull away in the second half -- Geno usually knows how to adjust, especially on defense.

I think we'll come close to covering, probably 80-60, plus or minus 3 points on either side.

OSU +21 sounds about right. They're a 2 seed, like Texas, and the margin should be similar.

 

[Carnac]

I do NOT think UConn will beat Oregon State by 21 points. My guess would be about 8 points. Oregon State will slow the game down, will not make dumb mistakes like failing to guard Stewie on an in-bounds play, and will take high-percentage shots. I would predict a score like 63-55. Oregon State will have a small lead at some point in the second half.

In a game between two good-shooting, disciplined teams playing intelligently to their respective strengths, the superior talent on the UConn side will prevail, but not by much.

The game will be good for women's basketball.

Joe, I respect your opinion. Just remember that the Vegas point spreads are usually pretty accurate. If they're not right on the money, they're very close. I'm very comfortable with their point line.
I'd be concerned if the line were -8 1/2. THAT would suggest as you do, that the margin of victory will be smaller than usual, and UConn is in for a dog fight. As I'm sure you know, UConn will bring a completely different dynamic into the game than Baylor did. They can't expect the things they did against Baylor, will work against UConn.

 

[BigBird]

This has "trap game" written all over it. My karma sensor is in a state of flummox.

 

[GoUconn7961]

WE ARE DOOMED - DOOMED I TELL YOU!!!

 

[Jeff H]

When Oregon State hits their first couple three's and we're down 6-0 my anxiety level will be as high as anyone's....But for UConn to lose they're going to have to screw things up. They haven't done that in 72 games and they're not going to start now. If it's not at least double digits I'll eat my UConn hat.

 

[GoUconn7961]

People! Stop messing w/the Mojo...

 

[meyers7]

For those of you who are worrying about the game and how UCONN is gonna handle Oregon St., just look at the teams for a minute.

Oregon St.'s Big 3 - Weisner, Weise and Hamblin
vs
UCONN's Big 3 - Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck

I mean, hello??? McFly??

Then

Hunter and Hanson vs Nurse and Samuelson??

I mean which starting 5 would you rather have?

I think we got this.

 

[Dove]

Whether it's by 1 pt or 21 , as long as the Huskies win.

If its 1 point then half of this place will be getting medical attention. And 17 may just...die. Sadly.

 

[Vowelguy]

Well anything is possible, but I have a hard time believing a team that lost by 3 points on their home court to TENNESSEE is going to have much of a chance against us.

Kinda like saying that a team which lost to Memphis wouldnt have much of a chance against UConn.

 

[ochoopsfan]

IMO, this years OSU team is better than last years Stanford team, who the Huskies lost too.

Anything can happen, most likely UConn wins two in Indy, but you still have to play the game.

 

[Bigpetunia]

No Final Four game looms as a potential "trap." This team is too focused for that possibility. The disparity in talent in this contest is huge. I'll take UConn minus the spread.

 

[Ct Dog]

UConn wins going away ..........Start the bus half way thru the third

 

[JordyG]

Tough team OSU. Even in loss (and Mulkey's bad coaching) however Baylor showed how to beat them. Baylor's Davis just wouldn't take the 15 footers offered to her. Push their high post screen further out, be physical inside and on the perimeter, and let Stewie and Tuck work inside. If Stewie hits her shots outside early and if Lou hits early they'll win by 25. If not it'll be grind it out to wear them down. And UConn by 12.

 

[LO TRADER]

For those of you who are worrying about the game and how UCONN is gonna handle Oregon St., just look at the teams for a minute.

Oregon St.'s Big 3 - Weisner, Weise and Hamblin
vs
UCONN's Big 3 - Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck

I mean, hello??? McFly??

Then

Hunter and Hanson vs Nurse and Samuelson??

I mean which starting 5 would you rather have?

I think we got this.

Full disclosure: OSU alum/OSU Fan here. Love your UCONN Blog, and the UCONN Bloggers. Can't say I disagree with much on UCONN Bloggers view of the OSU vs UCONN game Sunday. I will say that having watched OSU Women's game for the past 4 years is that these OSU ladies are not afraid. They may still get steamrolled by UCONN, but they are not afraid. They are truly excited to have this opportunity to play the best team in the country (for however may seasons now). I think your coach also recognizes this. I think there are some mis-perceptions about OSU players too. Gabby Hanson doesn't get coverage from the press, but if OSU is to have a good game against UCONN Sunday, Gabby Hanson's defense on Jefferson will be one of the main reasons. Like Jefferson, she is a wonderful on ball defender. I have no idea how OSU will cover Breanna. OSU plays straight up man defense, and Ruth has no chance of checking Breanna, much less any mobile post player. Thanks for letting me blog here. I wish for an excellent game, that goes the entire 4 quarters.

 

[JoePgh]

Tough team OSU. Even in loss (and Mulkey's bad coaching) however Baylor showed how to beat them. Baylor's Davis just wouldn't take the 15 footers offered to her. Push their high post screen further out, be physical inside and on the perimeter, and let Stewie and Tuck work inside. If Stewie hits her shots outside early and if Lou hits early they'll win by 25. If not it'll be grind it out to wear them down. And UConn by 12.

I expect a repeat of the South Carolina game plan on both offense and defense. On offense, assuming that OSU plays man-to-man defense, start with 5 out and let players beat their man to the basket, either by driving with the basketball or moving without it. On defense, guard high and challenge passes -- force them to make long and difficult passes into the post and expect a lot of turnovers when they either exhaust the shot clock looking for an open passing lane or make an incautious pass that gets picked off.

If OSU plays zone defense (which would be rational given their relative lack of mobility), then play as UConn does against any zone. OSU doesn't seem to be a zone team, so they can't have a sophisticated zone if they use it for the first time in serious competition on Sunday.

If UConn gets to the final against Syracuse, then they will face a sophisticated, Boeheim-influenced zone, and that will be a whole different kettle of fish.

 

[LO TRADER]

I expect a repeat of the South Carolina game plan on both offense and defense. On offense, assuming that OSU plays man-to-man defense, start with 5 out and let players beat their man to the basket, either by driving with the basketball or moving without it. On defense, guard high and challenge passes -- force them to make long and difficult passes into the post and expect a lot of turnovers when they either exhaust the shot clock looking for an open passing lane or make an incautious pass that gets picked off.

If OSU plays zone defense (which would be rational given their relative lack of mobility), then play as UConn does against any zone. OSU doesn't seem to be a zone team, so they can't have a sophisticated zone if they use it for the first time in serious competition on Sunday.

If UConn gets to the final against Syracuse, then they will face a sophisticated, Boeheim-influenced zone, and that will be a whole different kettle of fish.

I concur, this is how I would play OSU as well. Outside of Ruth Hamblin (and possibly Deven Hunter), the others on OSU can man-up vs UCONN players. If UCONN starts out having success with 5 out, as was case in OSU vs DePaul, Rueck will have to pull Hamblin, in favor of a better defender (of which there are 3 bench players who have height & can move their feet). But, I just can't see it. Must agree with this post.

 

[bags27]

Tough team OSU. Even in loss (and Mulkey's bad coaching) however Baylor showed how to beat them. Baylor's Davis just wouldn't take the 15 footers offered to her. Push their high post screen further out, be physical inside and on the perimeter, and let Stewie and Tuck work inside. If Stewie hits her shots outside early and if Lou hits early they'll win by 25. If not it'll be grind it out to wear them down. And UConn by 12.

I like everything about this, JordyG, but can't give you a "like" because of your prediction of a win. I'm just too superstitious.