Current Point Spread

[cohenzone]

I expect a repeat of the South Carolina game plan on both offense and defense. On offense, assuming that OSU plays man-to-man defense, start with 5 out and let players beat their man to the basket, either by driving with the basketball or moving without it. On defense, guard high and challenge passes -- force them to make long and difficult passes into the post and expect a lot of turnovers when they either exhaust the shot clock looking for an open passing lane or make an incautious pass that gets picked off.

If OSU plays zone defense (which would be rational given their relative lack of mobility), then play as UConn does against any zone. OSU doesn't seem to be a zone team, so they can't have a sophisticated zone if they use it for the first time in serious competition on Sunday.

If UConn gets to the final against Syracuse, then they will face a sophisticated, Boeheim-influenced zone, and that will be a whole different kettle of fish.

What the heck are you doing on the BY, Geno?

 

[bags27]

No Final Four game looms as a potential "trap." This team is too focused for that possibility. The disparity in talent in this contest is huge. I'll take UConn minus the spread.

I agree with your first two sentences and hope you're right about the final two. But the important thing is: at this point, there is no "trap" game. No coach getting to the Final Four lets his or her team become complacent--Geno least of all.

 

[Tenspro2002]

For those of you who are worrying about the game and how UCONN is gonna handle Oregon St., just look at the teams for a minute.

Oregon St.'s Big 3 - Weisner, Weise and Hamblin
vs
UCONN's Big 3 - Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck

I mean, hello??? McFly??

Then

Hunter and Hanson vs Nurse and Samuelson??

I mean which starting 5 would you rather have?

I think we got this.

They have a Weisner and a Weise? And also a Hamblin, Hanson, and Hunter?

Jesus, these guys are not making it easy on the announcing crew.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Earlier today I was worried about OSU as "a team of destiny" type team, but as the day wound down I went back to the facts, many stated above, and now feel that UCONN can win by 25 to 30 points!
Who does OSU have to cover Stewie?
Hamblin is good, big, but slow and has bad endurance.
They have size to go with talent but UCONN has quickness, athleticism, "been there before", and loads of speed.
MoJeff will drive their G's crazy!
Tuck will cover Hamblin too much talent inside & outside
No one sells out on defense for 40 minutes like the Huskies!

And the main fact that gives me the confidence is as stated above:
They lost to TN at home!

So UCONN 87 / OSU 53!

 

[HuskyNan]

Full disclosure: OSU alum/OSU Fan here. Love your UCONN Blog, and the UCONN Bloggers. Can't say I disagree with much on UCONN Bloggers view of the OSU vs UCONN game Sunday. I will say that having watched OSU Women's game for the past 4 years is that these OSU ladies are not afraid. They may still get steamrolled by UCONN, but they are not afraid. They are truly excited to have this opportunity to play the best team in the country (for however may seasons now). I think your coach also recognizes this. I think there are some mis-perceptions about OSU players too. Gabby Hanson doesn't get coverage from the press, but if OSU is to have a good game against UCONN Sunday, Gabby Hanson's defense on Jefferson will be one of the main reasons. Like Jefferson, she is a wonderful on ball defender. I have no idea how OSU will cover Breanna. OSU plays straight up man defense, and Ruth has no chance of checking Breanna, much less any mobile post player. Thanks for letting me blog here. I wish for an excellent game, that goes the entire 4 quarters.

You may not understand the refernce, Lo Trader, but UConn fans will - from things I have read, Gabby Hanson sounds like OSU's Kelly Faris.

 

[LO TRADER]

Earlier today I was worried about OSU as "a team of destiny" type team, but as the day wound down I went back to the facts, many stated above, and now feel that UCONN can win by 25 to 30 points!
Who does OSU have to cover Stewie?
Hamblin is good, big, but slow and has bad endurance.
They have size to go with talent but UCONN has quickness, athleticism, "been there before", and loads of speed.
MoJeff will drive their G's crazy!
Tuck will cover Hamblin too much talent inside & outside
No one sells out on defense for 40 minutes like the Huskies!

And the main fact that gives me the confidence is as stated above:
They lost to TN at home!

So UCONN 87 / OSU 53!

OSU has players to cover (not stop!) Stewie, but that still leaves Hamblin not guarding a different UCONN dead eye shooter. In other words 4 OSU perimeter defenders to cover 5 UCONN perimeter sharp shooters. That is OSU's dilemma. The loss at home vs Tennessee is not meaningful--I was at the game. OSU is not the same team they were when Tennessee came to Corvallis.

 

[MilfordHusky]

OSU is a very good team, plus they are on a roll. But I haven't seen a man-to-man defense that can contain UConn. We have at least 5 players who can both shoot the 3 and post up. I'm hoping for a good game, not necessarily a competitive one.

 

[LO TRADER]

You may not understand the refernce, Lo Trader, but UConn fans will - from things I have read, Gabby Hanson sounds like OSU's Kelly Faris.

Yes, I agree!

 

[JordyG]

I expect a repeat of the South Carolina game plan on both offense and defense. On offense, assuming that OSU plays man-to-man defense, start with 5 out and let players beat their man to the basket, either by driving with the basketball or moving without it. On defense, guard high and challenge passes -- force them to make long and difficult passes into the post and expect a lot of turnovers when they either exhaust the shot clock looking for an open passing lane or make an incautious pass that gets picked off.

If OSU plays zone defense (which would be rational given their relative lack of mobility), then play as UConn does against any zone. OSU doesn't seem to be a zone team, so they can't have a sophisticated zone if they use it for the first time in serious competition on Sunday.

If UConn gets to the final against Syracuse, then they will face a sophisticated, Boeheim-influenced zone, and that will be a whole different kettle of fish.

Yes and no. OSU is not a post team, They're a perimeter guard oriented team, and they work through the high post screen, not penetrate and dish/dump it in. OSU will run the high post screen 95% of the time depending on their guards to shot first, penetrate second. Not the other way around. Hamblin will work the pick and roll, but this team lives and dies on the outside. Unlike many teams UConn faces this team can score, and has size/shooters in the backcourt. They depend on the creativity of their guards and the sophisticated screens they run. I'm less worried about UConn's offense than their defense. You have to be physical with the guards, make them work hard on both ends, make them shoot further from the hoop and run through their screens. Yeah, UConn's A game is a 30+ win. A game as they had in Texas is a 15 point win, close and high scoring until the 4th quarter. And don't expect The Orange in the final. It's Washington easy.

 

[meyers7]

They have a Weisner and a Weise? And also a Hamblin, Hanson, and Hunter?

Jesus, these guys are not making it easy on the announcing crew.

That's why they get paid the big bucks.

 

[meyers7]

Full disclosure: OSU alum/OSU Fan here. Love your UCONN Blog, and the UCONN Bloggers. Can't say I disagree with much on UCONN Bloggers view of the OSU vs UCONN game Sunday. I will say that having watched OSU Women's game for the past 4 years is that these OSU ladies are not afraid. They may still get steamrolled by UCONN, but they are not afraid. They are truly excited to have this opportunity to play the best team in the country (for however may seasons now). I think your coach also recognizes this. I think there are some mis-perceptions about OSU players too. Gabby Hanson doesn't get coverage from the press, but if OSU is to have a good game against UCONN Sunday, Gabby Hanson's defense on Jefferson will be one of the main reasons. Like Jefferson, she is a wonderful on ball defender. I have no idea how OSU will cover Breanna. OSU plays straight up man defense, and Ruth has no chance of checking Breanna, much less any mobile post player. Thanks for letting me blog here. I wish for an excellent game, that goes the entire 4 quarters.

I'm sure Oregon St will play their hearts out. And I know they are really good. But with UCONN you are talking about a generational player and 2 (probably) AA Seniors. Granted UCONN still has to play up to their abilities, but there has not really been any evidence they they won't.

It's just I'd rather have UCONN's team going into the game than Oregon St's.

 

[meyers7]

Unlike many teams UConn faces this team can score, and has size/shooters in the backcourt.

Ummm, no they are not a big scoring team. Only avg 67 ppg.

I'm less worried about UConn's offense than their defense.

You kind of got that backwards. Oregon St is one of the best defenses in the nation.

However, if both team can hold the other to 10 pts below their average, UCONN wins 78-57.

 

[LO TRADER]

I'm sure Oregon St will play their hearts out. And I know they are really good. But with UCONN you are talking about a generational player and 2 (probably) AA Seniors. Granted UCONN still has to play up to their abilities, but there has not really been any evidence they they won't.

It's just I'd rather have UCONN's team going into the game than Oregon St's.

Fortunately you do have UCONN's team. OSU fans love this OSU Team, and you are correct, OSU players will play their hearts out, and won't quit. These players know that recruiting is on the line for OSU. They love their program, and, they especially love their coach. I expect UCONN to be nothing less than UCONN has been this entire year. Can you tell me if any UCONN opponents have kept it close going into the 4th quarter this year?

 

[Roundball fan]

Full disclosure: OSU alum/OSU Fan here. Love your UCONN Blog, and the UCONN Bloggers. Can't say I disagree with much on UCONN Bloggers view of the OSU vs UCONN game Sunday. I will say that having watched OSU Women's game for the past 4 years is that these OSU ladies are not afraid. They may still get steamrolled by UCONN, but they are not afraid. They are truly excited to have this opportunity to play the best team in the country (for however may seasons now). I think your coach also recognizes this. I think there are some mis-perceptions about OSU players too. Gabby Hanson doesn't get coverage from the press, but if OSU is to have a good game against UCONN Sunday, Gabby Hanson's defense on Jefferson will be one of the main reasons. Like Jefferson, she is a wonderful on ball defender. I have no idea how OSU will cover Breanna. OSU plays straight up man defense, and Ruth has no chance of checking Breanna, much less any mobile post player. Thanks for letting me blog here. I wish for an excellent game, that goes the entire 4 quarters.

I don't think Ruth will cover Stewie, probably Morgan, so who do you think will guard Stewie? If Ruth is on Stewie Morgan will have a field day inside. Thank you for your post and this is just my opinion which isn't worth much. Good luck to both teams.

 

[CocoHusky]

IMO, this years OSU team is better than last years Stanford team, who the Huskies lost too.

Anything can happen, most likely UConn wins two in Indy, but you still have to play the game.

Have to disagree with this comparison. Stanford caught UCONN early in the season at a time when UCONN was playing it's second game of the season with 2 new starters who were replacing 2 departing AA players.
This UCONN team the same four starters with 70+ games together.

 

[meyers7]

These players know that recruiting is on the line for OSU.

Yea, hopefully the Beavers can get a recruiting bump out of this. I imagine a FF appearance will do wonders for them.

Can you tell me if any UCONN opponents have kept it close going into the 4th quarter this year?

Maryland was only down 9 going into the 4th. Same for USF. But I think that's about it.

 

[LO TRADER]

I don't think Ruth will cover Stewie, probably Morgan, so who do you think will guard Stewie? If Ruth is on Stewie Morgan will have a field day inside. Thank you for your post and this is just my opinion which isn't worth much. Good luck to both teams.

Ruth is a perimeter defensive liability vs UCONN. Not as worried about her defense around the basket. She is an excellent shot blocker, and even better at changing the offensive players shot. Traditionally, she has done it without fouling. I believe OSU coach will pull Hamblin if she becomes a defensive liability, and is not contributing enough on the boards & offense. OSU has subs who have size and can guard the perimeter (Katie McWilliams, 6' 2" freshman who started 11 games for Syndey Wiese after Weise broke her hand). OSU coach is going to have be prepared to pull Ruth early, if UCONN lights up OSU early.

 

[JoePgh]

Fortunately you do have UCONN's team. OSU fans love this OSU Team, and you are correct, OSU players will play their hearts out, and won't quit. These players know that recruiting is on the line for OSU. They love their program, and, they especially love their coach. I expect UCONN to be nothing less than UCONN has been this entire year. Can you tell me if any UCONN opponents have kept it close going into the 4th quarter this year?

UConn has had a few relatively lose games. Maryland did best, and was within single digits until late in the game and lost by 12 points. UConn's first half against Maryland was quite bad -- they had an amazing number of turnovers. Notre Dame was down by one point at halftime on UConn's home court due to uncharacteristic defensive lapses, but in the third quarter UConn increased the lead to 20 points before ND narrowed it to within 8 in the 4th quarter (with amazing 3-point shooting) before losing by 10. DePaul kept their game with UConn very close in the first half, also with amazing 3-point shooting (something like 13-17 in the first half). As mentioned above, South Florida (UConn's only serious in-conference foe) played UConn three times and led at halftime in one game before losing by about 20. They had great athletes on the perimeter but no post presence.

South Carolina (at home) lost to UConn by "only" 12 points, but the game wasn't really that close -- the margin was 17 points with 1:03 left, and it was 22 points at the end of three quarters.

And never forget the Dayton game in last year's Elite 8, in which UConn trailed by 1 at halftime (Dayton scored 43 points in the first half as I recall) before UConn won by around 20 eventually.

UConn is not superhuman, but so far only Stanford (in an early game last year) has proven that they are "beatable".

Do you think that the outcome of the game (including the MOV) will have an impact on Ionescu's decision?

 

[ed4ourgirls]

My (possibly fuzzy) recollection of OSU"s loss to Tennessee is that OSU got down
a bunch early when Tennessee pressed and trapped a lot and OSU turned it over.

OSU has shown itself to be a team that turns it over quite a bit. If UConn can score
off those turnovers it will make the job a lot easier.

 

[UcMiami]

Lo Trader - welcome on board! Nice post and I think a lot of Uconn fans definitely respect what OSU has done, and while we may feel confident, we aren't comfortable about Sunday!

 

[connboy77]

Isn't this the first time OSU has been to a final four? Teams that reach the final four for the first time usually do not do well. UCONN is a very experienced final four team that has been there numerous times. They ring with confidence. The only players on this team that may be nervous are Katie Lou, Collier, and Butler. On the other hand I expect all the OSU players to be extremely nervous. This has to be worth a few points.

 

[LO TRADER]

My (possibly fuzzy) recollection of OSU"s loss to Tennessee is that OSU got down
a bunch early when Tennessee pressed and trapped a lot and OSU turned it over.

OSU has shown itself to be a team that turns it over quite a bit. If UConn can score
off those turnovers it will make the job a lot easier.

You are correct about turnovers--19 vs Baylor. I don't know why Sydney Weise, after breaking down the defense on her drives, tried to pass off in the lane against Baylor? Sydney Weise is OSU's best scorer driving to the rim, including getting to the free throw line. I'm sure that will be corrected in Sunday's game. In Tennessee game, OSU was very far behind, 20+, in 2nd half, and limited Tennessee to a single shot, or, turned over Tennessee, and almost won the game in 2nd half. As I said in another post, OSU is a much better team than the team that lost to Tennessee earlier in season. Also, Jamie Weisner also has a bad habbit of driving in the lane, & picking up her dribble, then either turning it over, or, getting tied up. I'm sure UCONN is fully aware of Jamie Weisner's tendencies. What will be interesting to see in the game is how well UCONN converts these turnovers. Doug Bruno sees UCONN winning by 20 vs OSU. His team lost to OSU in the Sweet Sixteen, and, has given proper respect to both programs.

 

[LO TRADER]

UConn has had a few relatively lose games. Maryland did best, and was within single digits until late in the game and lost by 12 points. UConn's first half against Maryland was quite bad -- they had an amazing number of turnovers. Notre Dame was down by one point at halftime on UConn's home court due to uncharacteristic defensive lapses, but in the third quarter UConn increased the lead to 20 points before ND narrowed it to within 8 in the 4th quarter (with amazing 3-point shooting) before losing by 10. DePaul kept their game with UConn very close in the first half, also with amazing 3-point shooting (something like 13-17 in the first half). As mentioned above, South Florida (UConn's only serious in-conference foe) played UConn three times and led at halftime in one game before losing by about 20. They had great athletes on the perimeter but no post presence.

South Carolina (at home) lost to UConn by "only" 12 points, but the game wasn't really that close -- the margin was 17 points with 1:03 left, and it was 22 points at the end of three quarters.

And never forget the Dayton game in last year's Elite 8, in which UConn trailed by 1 at halftime (Dayton scored 43 points in the first half as I recall) before UConn won by around 20 eventually.

UConn is not superhuman, but so far only Stanford (in an early game last year) has proven that they are "beatable".

Do you think that the outcome of the game (including the MOV) will have an impact on Ionescu's decision?

I don't know what impact the outcome of UCONN vs OSU game will have on Ionescu's decision. What I do know is that she visited OSU this past weekend. Her brother is going to University of Oregon to attempt to walk-on to basketball team. OSU is only 45 minutes by car from University of Oregon. She is also considering University of Oregon. However, given OSU's recent success, and, if they play lights out vs UCONN, I believe OSU will receive serious consideration. She would play for OSU as a freshman.

 

[LO TRADER]

Isn't this the first time OSU has been to a final four? Teams that reach the final four for the first time usually do not do well. UCONN is a very experienced final four team that has been there numerous times. They ring with confidence. The only players on this team that may be nervous are Katie Lou, Collier, and Butler. On the other hand I expect all the OSU players to be extremely nervous. This has to be worth a few points.

Correct, this is OSU's first time to Sweet Sixteen, Elite 8, and Final Four. I'm sure there will be nerves. It will be key for OSU players to get over the nerves early in Quarter 1. Fortunately, we don't have a crazy coach like Baylor. Our coach is calm, and exudes confidence, when the game starts getting out of hand. OSU has been resilient in these situations. They haven't quit, or, lost their minds when things were not going their way (at least in the past 10 games). Stanford was OSU's last loss, at Stanford, and, frankly, OSU got waxed. Fortunately, this FF game will be on a neutral court. As I have previously stated, for OSU's sake, a competitive game into the 4th quarter will do so much for OSU, and OSU recruiting. Is that too much to ask

 

[rugbymate]

Just a few interesting facts....OSU is an outstanding defensive team. Against Top 25 teams, they allowed a 38.5 FG% compared to UCONN's 39.0%. That says to me that they know how to play defense well and given that they will be up for this game look for a high intensity encounter.
However, OSU only shoots 35.8 against Top 25 teams while UCONN shoots 52.8%. When you add in the steals and turnover data the math doesn't look very good for OSU.
Am not taking this game for granted as that would be disrespectful to the student-athletes but if UCONN can just be themselves then we will be one step closer to # 11.