Commentary Thread for Premium Top-Shelf Tweets

[brasssbonanzaa]

I just posted this on Premium. Blauds seems pretty confident we are in the running for one of 2 spots - not 4.

"The presentations should be concluded by the end of the week or early next week. Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and his staff are then expected to decide on a final list of schools to give to the Big 12 Presidents for consideration when they meet next month. Houston, Cincinnati and UConn are expected to be the final contenders for two spots.

The Presidents will either choose two schools or vote not to expand, which would go against the recommendation of Bowlsby who feels the Big 12’s best chance to stay relevant among the Power 5 conference schools is to expand to 12 schools and create a conference championship game with two divisions of six schools."

Interesting that his comments seem to imply BYU is not in play. I find that hard to believe unless there's something behind the scenes we didn't see.

 

[mavblues]

3 schools for 2 spots = no consensus = add byu and go to 4. Only way to get it done.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I just posted this on Premium. Blauds seems pretty confident we are in the running for one of 2 spots - not 4.

"The presentations should be concluded by the end of the week or early next week. Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and his staff are then expected to decide on a final list of schools to give to the Big 12 Presidents for consideration when they meet next month. Houston, Cincinnati and UConn are expected to be the final contenders for two spots.

The Presidents will either choose two schools or vote not to expand, which would go against the recommendation of Bowlsby who feels the Big 12’s best chance to stay relevant among the Power 5 conference schools is to expand to 12 schools and create a conference championship game with two divisions of six schools."

Blauds has a source, just like a lot of these people have sources. If his source turns out to be wrong, it doesn't mean that his source was bad, it just means that the decision went a different direction.

That said, I really like UConn's odds in a 2 of 3 from Houston, Cincinnati and UConn. I continue to believe that there is no way the Big 12 agrees to 5 of 12 teams from their conference being from Texas. It is not going to happen. California has 4 teams in the Pac 12, and that is the realistic limit for a 12 team conference. I think 5 of 14 is even a little Texas-heavy.

I also don't think BYU is out of the running yet. If it looks like ESPN can't stop expansion (assuming they even want to), I expect them to support BYU because they could fold their BYU TV deal into the Big 12 TV contract, thereby reducing the cost of this round of expansion to ESPN .

 

[Tenspro2002]

Given how everything else has gone, if we're in a top 4 with Cincy, Houston, and BYU, watch them find a way to expand by 3.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Blauds has a source, just like a lot of these people have sources. If his source turns out to be wrong, it doesn't mean that his source was bad, it just means that the decision went a different direction.

That said, I really like UConn's odds in a 2 of 3 from Houston, Cincinnati and UConn. I continue to believe that there is no way the Big 12 agrees to 5 of 12 teams from their conference being from Texas. It is not going to happen. California has 4 teams in the Pac 12, and that is the realistic limit for a 12 team conference. I think 5 of 14 is even a little Texas-heavy.

I also don't think BYU is out of the running yet. If it looks like ESPN can't stop expansion (assuming they even want to), I expect them to support BYU because they could fold their BYU TV deal into the Big 12 TV contract, thereby reducing the cost of this round of expansion to ESPN .

Agreed. Everyone keeps talking about UConn and or Cincy not having enough support from the Texas schools. Why would Iowa State, both Kansas schools, WVU or Oklahoma schools vote for Houston? The political pressure from Texas means nothing to them. Unless Texas gives those schools something (a network, extending the GOR) there is no motivation for those schools to vote for Houston.

In addition, if I were TCU or Baylor, I wouldn't want to give Houston a huge recruiting edge by putting them in the Big 12. They will pass them very quickly.

 

[auror]

Agreed. Everyone keeps talking about UConn and or Cincy not having enough support from the Texas schools. Why would Iowa State, both Kansas schools, WVU or Oklahoma schools vote for Houston? The political pressure from Texas means nothing to them. Unless Texas gives those schools something (a network, extending the GOR) there is no motivation for those schools to vote for Houston.

Because if Houston's football is legit and continues to be legit, it will make them more money next negotiating cycle. Politics plays a role, but $ is more important. $ buys politics anyways.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Because if Houston's football is legit and continues to be legit, it will make them more money next negotiating cycle. Politics plays a role, but $ is more important. $ buys politics anyways.

Networks don't want Houston. They didn't bring any value as the market is shared by other schools.

 

[shizzle787]

If it's between us, Cincy, and Houston, Houston will get left out because they are too good at football. Here me out: the Big 12 did research specifically to find out which format would lead to the highest percentage chance of a team in the playoff. Obviously, OU and Texas were referring to themselves when referring to that team. Would adding UH increase or decrease their odds of getting in? UConn and Cincy are perfect because they are mediocre in football and great in most other departments. They usually won't stink up the joint, but they also won't usually compete for a CFP spot.

 

[auror]

Networks don't want Houston. They didn't bring any value as the market is shared by other schools.

1) They didn't want Houston for a BigXII network. If there is no network, all they care about are raw eyeballs.
2) They didn't want the Houston of 2 years ago. They certainly might want a Houston of 2-3 years from now if the team keeps winning. There is enough alumni and it's a large enough market if Houston "takes back the city". Then they would really want them.
3) Did you not see the rating Houston got the other day?

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

I'm not confident in our chances if they go two, we need them to go four. Houston is peaking too much right now that I think there'd be a major perception problem if they passed them over. And there's no way they'll pick UConn over Cincinnati.

 

[shizzle787]

I'm not confident in our chances if they go two, we need them to go four. Houston is peaking too much right now that I think there'd be a major perception problem if they passed them over. And there's no way they'll pick UConn over Cincinnati.

What was the perception when the B1G added Rutgers?

 

[huskymedic]

1) They didn't want Houston for a BigXII network. If there is no network, all they care about are raw eyeballs.
2) They didn't want the Houston of 2 years ago. They certainly might want a Houston of 2-3 years from now if the team keeps winning. There is enough alumni and it's a large enough market if Houston "takes back the city". Then they would really want them.
3) Did you not see the rating Houston got the other day?

Did you see the UT/ND ratings?

Barry Horn ‏@bhorn55 Sep 4
Raw DFW Sat TV ratings: UH-OU 7.3; Ala-USC 5.2; LSU-Wisc 5.0; A&M-UCLA 4.9; Rangers-Astros 3.3; TCU-SDSU 2.1.

David Barron ‏@dfbarron Sep 5
Nielsen locals for ND-Texas on ABC: Austin 25.4, SA 15.1, DFW 13.1, Houston 11.5.

Big12 justs needs a good UT team.

 

[dwalks93]

Because if Houston's football is legit and continues to be legit, it will make them more money next negotiating cycle. Politics plays a role, but $ is more important. $ buys politics anyways.

Your post seems to be based on the premise that winning football teams make the most money and are more valuable to a conference. But is that really true? I mean for the past few years Baylor and TCU have been winning ALOT. In fact, they have won even more than UH which has also been on a football tear. On the other hand UT has experienced one of their worst football droughts in recent times. Guess what???...UT is worth more than TCU, Baylor and UH combined....it not about winning football programs, its about fan bases and markets.

Here is what we know:
1. The Big12 spent a significant amount of money to hire independent consultants to evaluate the value of the expansion candidates
2. UT has very publicly endorsed UH's candidacy for the Big12
3. UT has argued against the public presentation of the consultant's data at the Big12 meetings

The most logical conclusion we can draw is that UT's preferred candidate, UH, is not supported by the consultant's data. If UH was a top candidate by the metrics UT would be arguing the data should drive the decision and would want the data publicly presented.

Big12 expansion is more complicated than which is the best G5 football team. The Texas power play (to include the Texas Governor, etc...) shows UH is not the slam dunk some of our posters think they are...coaches and players come and go but the core institution and its fan base/market are forever.

 

[auror]

Your post seems to be based on the premise that winning football teams make the most money and are more valuable to a conference. But is that really true? I mean for the past few years Baylor and TCU have been winning ALOT. In fact, they have won even more than UH which has also been on a football tear. On the other hand UT has experienced one of their worst football droughts in recent times. Guess what???...UT is worth more than TCU, Baylor and UH combined....it not about winning football programs, its about fan bases and markets.

Here is what we know:
1. The Big12 spent a significant amount of money to hire independent consultants to evaluate the value of the expansion candidates
2. UT has very publicly endorsed UH's candidacy for the Big12
3. UT has argued against the public presentation of the consultant's data at the Big12 meetings

The most logical conclusion we can draw is that UT's preferred candidate, UH, is not supported by the consultant's data. If UH was a top candidate by the metrics UT would be arguing the data should drive the decision and would want the data publicly presented.

Big12 expansion is more complicated than which is the best G5 football team. The Texas power play (to include the Texas Governor, etc...) shows UH is not the slam dunk some of our posters think they are...coaches and players come and go but the core institution and its fan base/market are forever.

What's the source for UT arguing against the public data. I haven't seen it. I take all rumors of stuff that was said at closed door meetings with a large grain of salt.

This is also a logical fallacy. Just because they didn't support the public release of the data doesn't mean it was all or even partially because of any support of Houston. You can't make that leap without any evidence.

Houston was not a consensus favorite before Texas made the political move. In fact, most posters seemed to think that UT didn't want Houston in the conference. Some still think they don't and that it's all public appeasement.

You are correct that making money in football isn't only about winning. But it helps. UT being worth more than Baylor and TCU isn't shocking, nor does it prove anything in this example. UT is worth more than almost every school (and the list of highest apparel deals that came out today shows that). But is Baylor or TCU worth more than UConn or Cincy? Yes, probably.

 

[shizzle787]

What's the source for UT arguing against the public data. I haven't seen it. I take all rumors of stuff that was said at closed door meetings with a large grain of salt.

This is also a logical fallacy. Just because they didn't support the public release of the data doesn't mean it was all or even partially because of any support of Houston. You can't make that leap without any evidence.

Houston was not a consensus favorite before Texas made the political move. In fact, most posters seemed to think that UT didn't want Houston in the conference. Some still think they don't and that it's all public appeasement.

You are correct that making money in football isn't only about winning. But it helps. UT being worth more than Baylor and TCU isn't shocking, nor does it prove anything in this example. UT is worth more than almost every school (and the list of highest apparel deals that came out today shows that). But is Baylor or TCU worth more than UConn or Cincy? Yes, probably.

No. They are not. Cincy yes, us no. We are worth more than either of those two. They are not as big of brands in football as you think. Obviously, we destroy them in basketball brand.

 

[MattMang23]

What was the perception when the B1G added Rutgers?

The B1G didn't care about perception since they were already cashing $35M checks per school at that point. The Big XII cares about perception because they're not cashing $35M checks per school.

 

[junglehusky]

Blauds has a source, just like a lot of these people have sources. If his source turns out to be wrong, it doesn't mean that his source was bad, it just means that the decision went a different direction.

That said, I really like UConn's odds in a 2 of 3 from Houston, Cincinnati and UConn. I continue to believe that there is no way the Big 12 agrees to 5 of 12 teams from their conference being from Texas. It is not going to happen. California has 4 teams in the Pac 12, and that is the realistic limit for a 12 team conference. I think 5 of 14 is even a little Texas-heavy.

I also don't think BYU is out of the running yet. If it looks like ESPN can't stop expansion (assuming they even want to), I expect them to support BYU because they could fold their BYU TV deal into the Big 12 TV contract, thereby reducing the cost of this round of expansion to ESPN .

I wish I was as confident as you. I think expansion by 2 is the nuut kick-iest scenario for UConn. According to blauds Houston is a lock. #PrayForFourOrZero

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I wish I was as confident as you. I think expansion by 2 is the nuut kick-iest scenario for UConn. According to blauds Houston is a lock. #PrayForFourOrZero

I know Blauds thinks Houston is a lock, but I can't see the networks or the northern 6 agreeing to Houston.

On the other hand, I do think BYU is still in the game as one of the 2.

 

[Hoophound]

Word I've heard is Bevilacqua's data was very pro-UConn and it would be impossible to overlook. If BYU is out, there should be a large gulf between us and the next candidate in terms of media value.

My thought right now is that Houston is either in or out with no middle ground. Basically, they are making it look like Houston got a fair shake for appearances or they are a lock. I'm going to gamble and say it is a ruse. I just can't see Baylor, TT, TCU and Oklahoma going for it. UConn and Cincy will get in as Flug said all along, or it Will be 4 schools. Either way, I expect the Big 12 and Texas to grab the New York/New England exposure they sorely need. Tell your elected officials to keep leaning on ESPN until this is done.

 

[pj]

Houston adds nothing to a conference that has UT (not to mention 3 other Texas schools). But Houston makes a lot of sense to a conference which UT has left, in which case their Texas presence is merely Texas Tech (in Lubbock), TCU (in Fort Worth), and Baylor (in Waco) -- leaving a great vacuum in the populous southern part of the state where Houston, Austin, and San Antonio would be left with no nearby B12 teams.

So if Houston is in, it's to insulate the remaining schools from a Texas departure.

That raises the question: if Texas isn't leaving until the GoR expires in 2025, and if Houston would still be there (and BYU - the Pac12 doesn't want them and no other conference is in range), then why not wait on Houston+BYU until Texas actually leaves?

I think if they add 2 this year, it's UConn and Cincy. No other play makes sense.

 

[Waquoit]

That said, I really like UConn's odds in a 2 of 3 from Houston, Cincinnati and UConn.

Now that's some contrarianism I can believe in!

 

[ConnHuskBask]

My thought right now is that Houston is either in or out with no middle ground.

Yeah? Bold take.

Just being a pr1ck...I get what you mean.

 

[huskymedic]

Blauds said that, not the University. Blauds's track record is mixed at best.

Thursday now backed up by Jacobs.

Mark has a whisperer... which scares me when we can't tell at times what are sourced and what are bathroom thoughts/opinions.

 

[whaler11]

Word I've heard is Bevilacqua's data was very pro-UConn and it would be impossible to overlook. If BYU is out, there should be a large gulf between us and the next candidate in terms of media value.

My thought right now is that Houston is either in or out with no middle ground. Basically, they are making it look like Houston got a fair shake for appearances or they are a lock. I'm going to gamble and say it is a ruse. I just can't see Baylor, TT, TCU and Oklahoma going for it. UConn and Cincy will get in as Flug said all along, or it Will be 4 schools. Either way, I expect the Big 12 and Texas to grab the New York/New England exposure they sorely need. Tell your elected officials to keep leaning on ESPN until this is done.

It would be impossible to overlook... except that they actually overlooked it and decided not to expand. It was only their feelings being hurt by the ACCNet that made them reconsider.

 

[Hoophound]

It would be impossible to overlook... except that they actually overlooked it and decided not to expand. It was only their feelings being hurt by the ACCNet that made them reconsider.

I think they were told there was no money and that ESPN couldn't pay them for anyone available, contract or no contract. The Big 12 was left to think they needed FSU and Clemson to make it work. When the ACC got a network the pipe dream of poaching the ACC was dead and they felt slighted by ESPN.

I can guarantee you that ESPN told the B12 there was no value in UConn, Cincy etc. The B12 bought it, despite the consultant's claims....until they realized they were getting screwed. I am hoping that the B12 is onto UConn's value to ESPN and considers us a must have in expansion. Our presentation needs to drive home our value and appearances on ESPN compared to the others in order to show B12 presidents what ESPN is doing. Why are all of our basketball games prime time? What are those worth? How do our football games compare? How about when we are winning? They will find that even if our football ratings aren't quite as good as Houston's at this moment, the advertising revenue generated is still better. A solid UConn football team playing a B12 schedule is a great product with tremendous value and it will blow away Houston or Cincy when basketball dollars get added in. NCAA tourney credits are huge money, who brings those to the B12?