Things are falling nicely for UConn. UCF can't be far behind Memphis (academics) and if UCF goes, there's no point in keeping USF either in my opinion. The three small academics (Rice, Tulane, SMU) are still there to "show" academic commitment over football (with ECU, Boise and Memphis out) but they seem incredibly unlikely to last until the end. Temple, per the latest, seems to be out already as well. I think Air Force is a long-shot...total respect but recruiting seriously at the P5 level and being the AFA would be difficult.
That leaves the real contenders: Five schools for 4, 2, or zero spots: UConn, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, Colorado State. I know folks around here think CSU is a joke or long-shot, but in Big 12 country - they've got support and if BYU is added, they make some sense.