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OK, I get that you think projecting Muffet as coach of the year is ridiculous (for the reasons you cited), so which candidates are the obvious ones the writer overlooked.
Since the coach has to have won a NC in the last 15 years (one of your criteria), that narrows the field down to the following candidates:
Geno Auriemma
Kim Mulkey
Brenda Frese
Gary Blair
The only one that made the Final Four last season was Geno (another criterion of yours), so I guess we should just nominate him? Making that prediction is appropriate for a UConn fan but probably not the best for a national writer.
While I am a Notre Dame fan and thus am biased, Muffet's selection seems reasonable to me. Her teams have a recent history of making the Final Four (and beyond), her team didn't lose any players to the WNBA, and they only lost 2 games all last year. My guess is that whichever coach wins the NC next season will win coach of the year. That doesn't necessarily happen, but given the perceived parity this season, it's a reasonable assumption.
Her team has great talent, but that team didn't make it to the FF last year. So is the best coach in the country if that intact team makes the FF?
I think a coach of the year award should go to a coach whose team outperforms expectations. Perhaps a good guess would be Ohio State's coach Kevin McGuff, who will have to pull together a diverse group of freshmen, returnees and transfers in order to get to the top. If he pulls it off, coaching will be a key factor.
Perhaps Louisville's Walz, who will also have to pull together a group of young players. He has certainly outperformed for years with his players and some recruits who have surprised on the upside. If he can get to the FF or higher this year, coaching should be acknowledged.
Other possible pre-season COY's would be those at Oregon State, or South Carolina, both of which are up-and-coming programs with relatively new coaches. They would be better positioned for a guess at COY at the end of the season.
And, of course, if Coach Auriemma manages to get his team back to the FF or higher, he should definitely deserve COY. With a group that lost the top three players in the WNBA draft? Which doesn't have a bona fide star post player? Yep, no question.