California state university system cancels fall classes on campus

[NJHusky]

Herd immunity is just not going to happen, unfortunately.

And your source?

 

[NJHusky]

The USA. A first world country without colleges.

Or better yet colleges that are forced to come back to reality and charge tuition that isn’t 3x higher than inflation for the past 40 years.

 

[Peacefrog]

If you are going to use a number at least do the math correctly. According to worldometer Denmark had 533 deaths and Finland had 284. That’s 817. 7x that is 5719. Worldometer shows Sweden with 3460 deaths. You’re off by 1.75x but never let facts get in the way. They conceded they did not properly safeguard their senior living places that account for over 50% of deaths. If u look at the general populace mortality it’s about 1700 or 2x Finland and Denmark. Let’s see what happens in July as they expect herd immunity in June.

I think my math is fine thanks. Read my post again. I never mentioned Denmark so that's your reading issue, not my math issue. May 12th Sweden had 57 deaths compared to a combined 8 for Finland and Norway. Last time I checked 8x7=56, no? Total deaths through Tuesday are 3,313 to 503 (factor of 6.6 higher). I think the Finland + Norway comparison is better since Sweden is sandwiched right in between versus separated by a body of water. Also, Finland + Norway have 11M people combined compared to 10M in Sweden. Pretty close. If you are going to use Denmark + Finland instead you at least need to normalize for the fairly large population difference, no? Math fact mic drop.

I've read about the issue with the elderly in Sweden. My concern is that all countries are seeing large percentages of deaths in senior living. Are Finland and Norway outliers? If they also had 50% deaths in this community it wouldn't change the ratios, right?

I'm sensing aggression and I'm not sure where its coming from. We're all on the same team here. I want the best possible outcome and simply posted data with no bias or ulterior motive and you seemed to come at me for some reason. Believe me, I hope Sweden's approach works but the numbers are worrying at this point. As you said, we'll know more in a month or so.

 

[August_West]

I understand why California wud cancel fall sports but why make the decision this early? Why not wait another month till mid June? Why the burning rush to call it so fast? Does fall semester start in late July out there? Or they just trying to be the first ones? Extra strange when u take into account that just a couple weeks ago Cali was talking about reopening public schools in July. So weird

What do you think exactly is going to happen between now and then? A vaccine? Jesus doing resurrection 2 and touching us all on the shoulder and healing us?

either of the above by the fall would be great.

Neither is happening.

 

[superjohn]

What do you think exactly is going to happen between now and then? A vaccine? Jesus doing resurrection 2 and touching us all on the shoulder and healing us?

either of the above by the fall would be great.

Neither is happening.

What does a vaccine have to do with it? We may never have a vaccine.

 

[August_West]

What does a vaccine have to do with it? We may never have a vaccine.

Nope we may not. But you can’t rush herd immunity without unneedingly sacrificing lives either.

I get your trips to the gym and hoisting beer at a football game are vital to you.

playing music is vital to me.

but .....

priorities my friend

 

[superjohn]

Nope we may not. But you can’t rush herd immunity without unneedingly sacrificing lives either.

I get your trips to the gym and hoisting beer at a football game are vital to you.

playing music is vital to me.

but .....

priorities my friend

Geezus, be better than that.

 

[August_West]

Geezus, be better than that.

Than what?

stores should be open. People should be going back to work. All with social distancing practices and masks. That’s where we are.

you leaving your sweat on a bench press or me spraying the front row with saliva while I sing in a crowded indoor bar is the height of stupidity. I know you’re not that stupid.

you think you’re going to see 100k in ann arbor for Michigan Ohio state this fall? Guess again, chumley.

 

[Palatine]

What do you think exactly is going to happen between now and then? A vaccine? Jesus doing resurrection 2 and touching us all on the shoulder and healing us?

Just some facts.

1-SARS simply disappeared as the seasons changed. Why do you think there is a "flu" season. Weather affects viruses.

2-There is money to be made. Remdesivir looks to be lame. However, almost every major pharma player has folks working on treatments which would be a windfall. At least 75 are in the pipeline. Only one has to work.

3-Testing is increasing exponentially. As surveillance testing becomes more widely available political decision makers will be able adjust their state re-openings based on better data.

4-Coutries all over the world (and states here at home) are re-opening at different rates and with different precautions. These experiences will inform decision makers on does and don't and could cause some to change course.

5-I hope you have a lightning rod on your home. Touching one on the shoulder isn't Jesus's only option.

 

[August_West]

Just some facts.

1-SARS simply disappeared as the seasons changed. Why do you think there is a "flu" season. Weather affects viruses.

2-There is money to be made. Remdesivir looks to be lame. However, almost every major pharma player has folks working on treatments which would be a windfall. At least 75 are in the pipeline. Only one has to work.

3-Testing is increasing exponentially. As surveillance testing becomes more widely available political decision makers will be able adjust their state re-openings based on better data.

4-Coutries all over the world (and states here at home) are re-opening at different rates and with different precautions. These experiences will inform decision makers on does and don't and could cause some to change course.

5-I hope you have a lightning rod on your home. Touching one on the shoulder isn't Jesus's only option.

I don’t know which of those 5 points made me laugh harder. Thank you.

 

[superjohn]

Than what?

stores should be open. People should be going back to work. All with social distancing practices and masks. That’s where we are.

you leaving your sweat on a bench press or me spraying the front row with saliva while I sing in a crowded indoor bar is the height of stupidity. I know you’re not that stupid.

you think you going to see 100k in an arbor for Michigan Ohio state this fall? Guess again, chumley.

What are you talking about? That's not where we are. Businesses aren't open, they're going out of business all over the place.

Nobody has said anything abour concerts or gyms in any of these threads. It's all about risk/reward analysis, the shutdown has had dire consequences and it's only getting worse with things being shutdown until the end of summer. People are dying at home from other things than Covid, a lot of kids are getting f-ed up.

Your post is extremely cavalier about what's happening to people. I could care less about the gym, you playing guitar, oe football games. It's not about you or me.

I still have no clue what your vaccine comment means.

 

[August_West]

What are you talking about? That's not where we are. Businesses aren't open, they're going out of business all over the place.

Point being, mom and pop shops and non essential businesses should be open. I believe that. And I believe they will be over the next 6 weeks.
That’s not cavalier.

 

[August_West]

I still have no clue what your vaccine comment means.

Break it down.
There will be no “ normal “ until a vaccine. It’s that simple. Mass gatherings and businesses where it’s impossible to practice social distancing are screwed.. it’s sad, but it’s true.

 

[superjohn]

Break it down.
There will be no “ normal “ until a vaccine. It’s that simple. Mass gatherings and businesses where it’s impossible to practice social distancing are screwed.. it’s sad, but it’s true.

So no school or sports for years?

 

[superjohn]

Supreme Court of Wisconsin just struck down the stay at home order from the Governor, all restaurants and bars can open immediately.

It's pretty obvious this was always going to happen around the country.

 

[August_West]

So no school or sports for years?

Maybe.

or until something changes and people actually get tested at the numbers they should be and by some miracle the contagiousness of this travesty is mitigated.

school will combine sparse rotated classrooms with online learning. Sucks for kids but way easier on college and high school students than the young ones for who socialization is just as important.

sports?

I’m sure they’ll find a way on pro level. But sold out arenas and stadiums are kaput for a bit. College sports? I can’t see it if kids aren’t on campus.

 

[August_West]

Supreme Court of Wisconsin just struck down the stay at home order from the Governor, all restaurants and bars can open immediately.

It's pretty obvious this was always going to happen around the country.

it’s a bold move, cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.
Hope it does. Many won’t open. ( see Georgia) and the fear right now is too fresh.

 

[JB75]

I

The NBA and MLB have both stated they need a month of warm up activities to prevent injuries and get back in shape, and that isn't football. Besides for at least a month now, people have been speculating about having fall sports start after the new year.

I agree that fall sports cud start Jan 1 coinciding with College hoops. They re saying nfl starting Columbus Day weekend , nba beginning July 4 weekend with a couple exhibition games then right into playoffs which will conclude around Labor Day weekend. So yes I understand , just think jumping gun on May 10th is a month too early. That’s all. Obviously no one knows what’s going on. Just a huge mess

 

[auggie22]

The chain of payments is kept in tact in Denmark. Everyone can buy food, everyone can pay the rent, landlords can collect rent, banks can collect on loans, no one loses their job, companies meet payrolls despite shortfalls in sales.

Are people buying computers? Buying cars? Taking vacations? Investing money? Economies are pretty complicated things. Your response does not explain how paying people’s salaries for a few months would protect our economy. What about the people who have jobs now but won’t in three or four months when the lack of spending forces businesses to close or retrench. Or 12 months from now when the vicious spiral continues?

The truth is layoffs are going to get much, much worse before they get better. The length of our mandated quarantine will determine how bad and for how long. By this time next year most of us could very well be out of jobs. Paying the unemployed their salary for a few months (or years) is not going to stop it.

 

[JB75]

Early June is the deadline for all schools to decide.

I heard late June just last week but since people r announcing things already this will definitely push up that date as everyone goes into a panicky rush to make sure they were “proactive”.

 

[superjohn]

it’s a bold move, cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.
Hope it does. Many won’t open. ( see Georgia) and the fear right now is too fresh.

But it was always going to happen. It's why our lockdown was never tenable. I always expected the shutdown to be until June 1st. You don't shut things down and pick winners and losers (all big box stores stay open and get money, mom and pops shutdown and get shafted.)

You don't tell people they're shutting down for 2 weeks and then turn 2 weeks into 5 months. Of course people are going to freak out. I think some states are opening up too quickly but it's totally unsurprising. If Pritzker is planning on keeping thing sshutdown in the state into August like he's hinted at, things will start getting ugly.

 

[auggie22]

I don’t have their testing info. The trouble with acceptable compromises is they they are acceptable usually to people not directly impacted by the illness. I don’t think Sweden mandated work, not sure, but they did expect social distancing and apparently they don’t have a population full of people who melt because they are asked to sacrifice a teeny bit of personal freedom. They also have 10 million total people. We have several urban metro areas with many more than that, a big minority population that seems to be prone to more serious consequences. They are betting on herd immunity. We’ll see if that happens there or here.

Also note that suggesting we close the economy down for as long as necessary to contain the virus and protect the vulnerable is also an acceptable compromise to some but not everyone. There is no way forward without risks - the people worried about their jobs are no less righteous than the people worried about their lives.

 

[Hi-Low]

Well that is pretty political. I happen to think the outcome wouldn’t be overly different no matter who is in charge. Do I think our response has been good? Not really. But what would your ideal leader have done differently? And please don’t say more testing because that’s far easier said than done. There is also a supply chain issue. We can’t just produce endless tests on demand.

I also happen to think the governors should be leading the charge, with the help of the federal government. It seems the governors aren’t taking any responsibility on the outbreak and the response, when in reality it’s largely their responsibility to do both.

So if we were invaded by Russia the Governors would coordinate the response? I think the Governors in the northeast are doing pretty well but the Federal govt has the resources and money to coordinate so the Governors can execute. We wasted Feb and early March, just a fact....the Feds wished it away and the CDC blew the first test regimen and we refused outside tests from other countries. If we had been more aggressive and successful in Feb our deaths would be much lower. So yes a better leader may have put us in a better place.

 

[JimHurley]

So if we were invaded by Russia the Governors would coordinate the response? I think the Governors in the northeast are doing pretty well but the Federal govt has the resources and money to coordinate so the Governors can execute. We wasted Feb and early March, just a fact....the Feds wished it away and the CDC blew the first test regimen and we refused outside tests from other countries. If we had been more aggressive and successful in Feb our deaths would be much lower. So yes a better leader may have put us in a better place.

Um, a virus and an invasion are two completely different things. Are you saying the states should never lead the charge in any scenario? The governors bear a lot of responsibility, and not only where they decide they want to be held accountable. Also, most Northeast governors have done an absolutely terrible job. Forcing nursing homes to take coronavirus patients? They couldn’t have handled it much worse. NY and PA have had the worst responses of the northeast states.

 

[cohenzone]

Also note that suggesting we close the economy down for as long as necessary to contain the virus and protect the vulnerable is also an acceptable compromise to some but not everyone. There is no way forward without risks - the people worried about their jobs are no less righteous than the people worried about their lives.

The point is, there is no clear cut easy. answer. The president is properly concerned about the economy. One gets the idea, though, that his concern about the economy relative to the politically inconvenient advice of pandemic medical and science experts , is to try and wish the virus away like some annoying fly and shoot the messengers so they aren’t around to annoy him anymore. One suspects that re-election is the gentleman’s motivation. If the medical experts are close to being right, we are damned if we do or don’t no matter what we do.

Until we know that this virus can be controlled and/or that herd immunity occurs, we won’t know if a rush to reopen is a good or bad move long term for the economy. I know we have millions of people who think they are immune to the virus to the extent that wearing a mask or distancing is an incredible violation of their rights. That attitude seems to make controlling this sucker harder than maybe it should be. I’m pretty sure the medical experts are under a lot of pressure to help the politicians, but not at the expense of providing the best medical advice they can. All I’m sure of is that contagion experts know contagion way better than any politician or former real estate developer.

 

[ctchamps]

South Korea uses cellphone data to trace where an infected person has been, and then broadcasts it (without names) so others will know if they may have come in contact. They also use an app that tracks a persons phone to insure that he isn’t breaking quarantine. Although the published data doesn't include names there are cases where people have connected dots, and also businesses where people have been lose business despite cleaning and disinfecting done by the state.

How do you think Americans would respond to such "virtuous surveillance"?

South Korea uses cellphone data to trace where an infected person has been, and then broadcasts it (without names) so others will know if they may have come in contact. They also use an app that tracks a persons phone to insure that he isn’t breaking quarantine. Although the published data doesn't include names there are cases where people have connected dots, and also businesses where people have been lose business despite cleaning and disinfecting done by the state.

How do you think Americans would respond to such "virtuous surveillance"?

”Give me liberty, or give me death?”

 

[ctchamps]

Supreme Court of Wisconsin just struck down the stay at home order from the Governor, all restaurants and bars can open immediately.

It's pretty obvious this was always going to happen around the country.

Thought it was a ruling against the state health agency making it a state rule. You have a link that indicates it was otherwise.

 

[Towney007]

But it was always going to happen. It's why our lockdown was never tenable. I always expected the shutdown to be until June 1st. You don't shut things down and pick winners and losers (all big box stores stay open and get money, mom and pops shutdown and get shafted.)

You don't tell people they're shutting down for 2 weeks and then turn 2 weeks into 5 months. Of course people are going to freak out. I think some states are opening up too quickly but it's totally unsurprising. If Pritzker is planning on keeping thing sshutdown in the state into August like he's hinted at, things will start getting ugly.

Yeah I agree w/ most of this. I don't get people that think this was going to end before June. Every chart everywhere had us ramping back up around early to mid June, and that seemed optimistic to me. And i'm a pretty hard-line supporter of us doing this as long as it's sustainable. But I do that understanding that this isn't a solution by any means, whatsoever and just in terms of communicating to the public, here; the idea with the lockdown is that we were going to do this to flatten the curve and make it more manageable for hospitals so that we could treat it more effectively over the long-run; understanding that a vaccine was way far off in the future and that we'd likely incur spikes over the next few years. Never at any, one point - was this ever 'shut everything down until we find a cure.' Those are two entirely different things - and I feel like like a lot of the rhetoric being flung back and forth has sorta lullabied pro-lockdown leaders into policy positions that support more of a 'we're doing this until we're cured' as opposed to what the original intent was.

The idea that extended lockdown is even possible as a form of sustainable policy - to me - is a non-starter. Potentially catastrophic damage and civil unrest are baked into it. Humans are top of the food chain because we work together to accomplish a variety of tasks - from food, hunting, killing, shopping, playing, you name it... We're social animals. This idea that people are going to miraculously kick 100 million years of instinctive and learned human behavior overnight because some scientists and bureaucrats have some peer reviewed research papers is 100% JUST as bonkers and unrealistic as thinking we should open the economy right this second.

 

[auggie22]

The point is, there is no clear cut easy. answer. The president is properly concerned about the economy. One gets the idea, though, that his concern about the economy relative to the politically inconvenient advice of pandemic medical and science experts , is to try and wish the virus away like some annoying fly and shoot the messengers so they aren’t around to annoy him anymore. One suspects that re-election is the gentleman’s motivation. If the medical experts are close to being right, we are damned if we do or don’t no matter what we do.

Until we know that this virus can be controlled and/or that herd immunity occurs, we won’t know if a rush to reopen is a good or bad move long term for the economy. I know we have millions of people who think they are immune to the virus to the extent that wearing a mask or distancing is an incredible violation of their rights. That attitude seems to make controlling this sucker harder than maybe it should be. I’m pretty sure the medical experts are under a lot of pressure to help the politicians, but not at the expense of providing the best medical advice they can. All I’m sure of is that contagion experts know contagion way better than any politician or former real estate developer.

Very true. But equally true is that the medical experts likely know even less than us of the economic implications of their recommendations. Their job is to provide expert medical advice. And while economists provide theirs, it is the politicians who will make the hard call on the trade offs. There are many posting on this board who seem to think that either their will be no economic toll, or no trade off to make.

The politicians should be making the call, not the medical experts. That is the way that it should be.

 

[GHSWolverines]

Yeah it pretty much sucks and people learn differently and if you've been thrust into this as a teacher it really sucks. It's a totally different teaching conversation. There's an article in the journal (maybe) that talks about how colleges are investing in retraining professors to teach online I think USF is allocating $5M to do it.

Much of higher ed has dismissed it as inferior for too long and the category has to adapt. There are purely online programs for major universities, I think even Yale has one or more, I forget the department(s) - this is going to shift the conversation around online delivery in higher ed and schools that find way to deliver programs in an online and in-person format will win. I personally think it's inferior as so much of college is the outside of classroom experience that helps shape world view and provides people with new perspectives and that is lost in online delivery.

It would be less expensive, but graduates would likely be less prepared for real life.

Absolutely. On line learning has been around since the late 90's and has slowly increased in popularity but I do question its merits. I am not proud of it but I remember a cousin of my wife was taking an online class and needed a high 90 on the final exam to pass the course with a D-. I reluctantly helped and this person received a D-.
Online classes IMO provide 2 things - convenience and cost. I doubt that colleges and Universities who go online in the fall will reduce costs. Especially the private schools. I have a daughter who will be entering her senior year in college. She HATED this type of learning. Some of her professors altered the curriculum because this format. Pay all this money to be short changed.
I teach at the high school level. It has been a challenge for myself as well as my students. Try getting across to students who are unmotivated to begin with or have IEP's (individual education plans) with no personal contact! I pray administration is planning a comprehensive plan for the youth of our society to open schools in some form. Otherwise they will be further behind.