Bubble Watch....

[King Jonathan]

I agree with Larry Brown - AAC is one of the most underrated conferences. In 2014, we took out 3 prohibitive favorites for the NC, and did not even have a great season in the AAC. Louisville had the regular season and tourney championship, and only was a four seed. I think perception is everything and the AAC should have held onto the Big East name

 

[auror]

I agree with Larry Brown - AAC is one of the most underrated conferences. In 2014, we took out 3 prohibitive favorites for the NC, and did not even have a great season in the AAC. Louisville had the regular season and tourney championship, and only was a four seed. I think perception is everything and the AAC should have held onto the Big East name

How'd the AAC do in the tournament last year?

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Connecticut (18–7) at Cincinnati (19–7)
Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN2

The Huskies are just barely on the right side of the bubble, while the Bearcats are just barely outside. Cincinnati won the first meeting between these teams in Storrs, but UConn has the superior résumé outside that game. The Bearcats could negate that advantage with a season sweep.

Just barely on the right side of the bubble??? Man I don't think people are really grasping the concept of how weak the NCAA field is this season. With our resume, we are squarely in the tournament and not even close to the bubble.

 

[King Jonathan]

How'd the AAC do in the tournament last year?

Only 2 teams made the tourney - (1-2 record)
SMU was the conference champ, and conference tourney champ. Record was 27-6. (better than all 6,5, some 4 seeds) But only had a 6 seed and was widely seen as being robbed vs UCLA in first round.
Cincinnati was an 8 seed and placed on path of prohibitive favorite Kentucky on second round.

Was a down year too

 

[auror]

Only 2 teams made the tourney - (1-2 record)
SMU was the conference champ, and conference tourney champ. Record was 27-6. (better than all 6,5, some 4 seeds) But only had a 6 seed and was widely seen as being robbed vs UCLA in first round.
Cincinnati was an 8 seed and placed on path of prohibitive favorite Kentucky on second round.

Was a down year too

Love the spin on SMU losing in first round. Goaltending was definitely an issue, but it was against an 11 seed that most bracketologists didn't even think should make the field. If you make the case the conference is being underrated, the best team can't lose to a fringe team. SMU should have been a 4, well UCLA should have been a 13. The conference teams (other than UConn) should be overperforming their seeds if they're being underseeded.

 

[huskiesnyc]

According to rpiforecast.com. The middle number is the expected RPI. Even if we go 3-2 down the stretch we would have an RPI of 34. Last night was HUGE.

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
24-7 23.2 8.72%
23-8 27.7 35.17%
22-9 34.7 42.85%
21-10 48.1 12.10%
20-11 60.7 1.14%
19-12 71.0 0.01%

 

[Jerry1714]

According to rpiforecast.com. The middle number is the expected RPI. Even if we go 3-2 down the stretch we would have an RPI of 34. Last night was HUGE.

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
24-7 23.2 8.72%
23-8 27.7 35.17%
22-9 34.7 42.85%
21-10 48.1 12.10%
20-11 60.7 1.14%
19-12 71.0 0.01%

Finish 3-2 do not blow round 1 of the AAC tournament, go to the NCAAT

 

[champs99and04]

Hopefully we win tomorrow and we can start using this thread to talk about other teams. Like Pittsburgh.

 

[caw]

Hopefully we win tomorrow and we can start using this thread to talk about other teams. Like Pittsburgh.

Pitt Cuse tomorrow has some interesting implications. PC Hall does also. Actually quite a few games this weekend that could change where teams stand overall. The group from 7 seed to out is really bunched.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Love the spin on SMU losing in first round. Goaltending was definitely an issue, but it was against an 11 seed that most bracketologists didn't even think should make the field. If you make the case the conference is being underrated, the best team can't lose to a fringe team. SMU should have been a 4, well UCLA should have been a 13. The conference teams (other than UConn) should be overperforming their seeds if they're being underseeded.

Didn't that fringe team also win their next game advancing to the the sweet sixteen.
SMU was jobbed and most likely at a minimum would of gotten to the sweet sixteen

 

[auror]

Didn't that fringe team also win their next game advancing to the the sweet sixteen.
SMU was jobbed and most likely at a minimum would of gotten to the sweet sixteen

Yeah they beat #14 seed UAB. That makes it so much better and really the AAC must have been underrated because the team that beat the conference champion #6 seed also beat a #14 seed.

 

[champs99and04]

Pitt Cuse tomorrow has some interesting implications. PC Hall does also. Actually quite a few games this weekend that could change where teams stand overall. The group from 7 seed to out is really bunched.

Is Cuse still not comfortably in? PC and Hall don't play until next Thursday.

 

[caw]

Is Cuse still not comfortably in? PC and Hall don't play until next Thursday.

I meant implications for both Pitt, who is bubble at best, and Cuse as they are a team UConn is competing with for seeding. They are around the same tier as UConn and PC right now which is comfortably in the tournament regardless. However, after Pitt they have NCSt, at UNC and at FSU. UNC should be the only loss, but Pitt always plays them tough and FSU is on the road. 2-2 gets them in I think but every loss of theirs helps UConn at this point.

Just goes to show I don't follow PCs schedule. Knew it was SHU at least.

 

[storrs15]

PC finishes with Hall, DePaul, Creighton, and St. John's. Eye test tells you those should be 4 easy games (other than maybe hall) but PC has been awful all through conference play. They have 2 losses to Marquette, 1 loss to hall and another to DePaul. They blew a 26 point lead against Georgetown and we're a couple of missed free throws by Georgetown from losing the game. Don't let the little number next to PCs name fool you if you haven't been following them, they're highly overrated and UConn stacks up very well against them.

 

[champs99and04]

I meant implications for both Pitt, who is bubble at best, and Cuse as they are a team UConn is competing with for seeding. They are around the same tier as UConn and PC right now which is comfortably in the tournament regardless. However, after Pitt they have NCSt, at UNC and at FSU. UNC should be the only loss, but Pitt always plays them tough and FSU is on the road. 2-2 gets them in I think but every loss of theirs helps UConn at this point.

Just goes to show I don't follow PCs schedule. Knew it was SHU at least.

I bet they're a dog @ FSU, so you're right, the Pitt game is crucial for them. 1-3 and you have to think they have to win a game or two in the ACCT.

 

[Jerry1714]

PC finishes with Hall, DePaul, Creighton, and St. John's. Eye test tells you those should be 4 easy games (other than maybe hall) but PC has been awful all through conference play. They have 2 losses to Marquette, 1 loss to hall and another to DePaul. They blew a 26 point lead against Georgetown and we're a couple of missed free throws by Georgetown from losing the game. Don't let the little number next to PCs name fool you if you haven't been following them, they're highly overrated and UConn stacks up very well against them.

PC will be an underdog at SH, probably somewhere around 6 to 7 points and lost to to them at home already so in no way is that an easy game for PC

 

[BoatShow]

If we win today it's time to start talking seeds #awfulmojopost

 

[temery]

What was UConn's rpi last year at the end of the season?

 

[tcf15]

What was UConn's rpi last year at the end of the season?

70

 

[ucp990411]

I may be scolded again for being stupid but 1 more loss and it does not matter to whom puts a tourney bid in doubt. These are not good teams we are losing to. Cincinnati twice, Temple twice, Tulsa.

 

[CallMeBruce]

I may be scolded again for being stupid but 1 more loss and it does not matter to whom puts a tourney bid in doubt. These are not good teams we are losing to. Cincinnati twice, Temple twice, Tulsa.

Cincinnati isn't a good team now? You're a clown.

 

[CTBasketball]

What was UConn's rpi last year at the end of the season?

Temples RPI was mid 30's for reference.

 

[imno1]

I may be scolded again for being stupid but 1 more loss and it does not matter to whom puts a tourney bid in doubt. These are not good teams we are losing to. Cincinnati twice, Temple twice, Tulsa.

Can't scold you for being stupid. It's an affliction with no cure. It is controllable though. Seek help

 

[Paesano]

He wasn't wrong about Tulsa and Temple. And UConn shouldn't lose at home to Cinci.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

I may be scolded again for being stupid but 1 more loss and it does not matter to whom puts a tourney bid in doubt. These are not good teams we are losing to. Cincinnati twice, Temple twice, Tulsa.

So how do you reconcile the fact that Seton Hall lost to Long Beach State, St. Bonaventure lost to LaSalle, Alabama lost to Miss. State, LSU lost to 100 worse teams, etc, etc, etc?

If you're gonna knock us out of the tournament, you have to pick someone to replace us with. You're not gonna find another bubble team with 2 top-24 wins and no losses outside the top-70.

 

[mauconnfan]

3 of last 4 will secure a bid. Still is ugly to have been swept buy 2 teams who are bubbles or just in.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

3 of last 4 will secure a bid. Still is ugly to have been swept buy 2 teams who are bubbles or just in.

While that is true, is that worse than having losses to teams like Memphis and ECU, who have sub 150 RPI? I know it's not a positive reflection on us to have been swept by two bubble teams, but in this season of college basketball avoiding bad losses against sub 150 teams is worth more than quality wins.

 

[BFieldHusky]

While that is true, is that worse than having losses to teams like Memphis and ECU, who have sub 150 RPI? I know it's not a positive reflection on us to have been swept by two bubble teams, but in this season of college basketball avoiding bad losses against sub 150 teams is worth more than quality wins.

Exactly. The best part of our resume right now is no bad losses. Cincy and Temple are in worse shape than us despite beating us twice because they have some bad losses on their resume.

 

[mauconnfan]

While that is true, is that worse than having losses to teams like Memphis and ECU, who have sub 150 RPI? I know it's not a positive reflection on us to have been swept by two bubble teams, but in this season of college basketball avoiding bad losses against sub 150 teams is worth more than quality wins.

I mean I guess but aren't we "UCONN" fans? If you watched those 4 games ve Temple and Cincy and don't believe we should have won 3 of those then our standards are sinking.

But in the mindset of "bad losses" I guess you are correct for the most part. Just can't get those "should have won" glasses off I guess here.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

I mean I guess but aren't we "UCONN" fans? If you watched those 4 games ve Temple and Cincy and don't believe we should have won 3 of those then our standards are sinking.

But in the mindset of "bad losses" I guess you are correct for the most part. Just can't get those "should have won" glasses off I guess here.

Oh I absolutely agree that at a minimum we should have won both of those games at the XL versus Cincy and Temple. That being said, if we take care of business versus USF, Houston and UCF I think we are in regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. If we win all four of the remaining games in the regular season, we are a lock.