Bubble Watch....

[Marty Jackson]

It's this line of thinking that creates false expectations to which the BY goes nuts over after every loss (myself included). Nobody knows what the rest of the field is going to do the rest of the season. Bottom line, Uconn still holds the key to their season. Keep playing the way they are and the wins will come.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.

I don't think we lose both to SMU and I don't think we lose to Houston. So add two wins and subtract an L. I also see this team gelling and winning the American. Talent wise we're the best team in the league, including SMU. I wouldn't be at all suprised if we handle Cinci in the rematch as well.

 

[scdono]

The only way we have a chance at getting in at 23-11 is if we beat SMU twice or beat cincy and split with SMU. We just can't afford not to win one of those 3 games in any scenario 10(have to have 1 out of 3) or 11 losses(2 out of 3).
Though with 11 losses we are talking about another bad loss. So ideally we can lose 3 and maybe 4 more games to get in.

I mean this nicely: you are clueless. 22-9 and we're in playing the tournament for seating. We don't need to beat Cincinnati or smu at all to be in. We can't have a bad loss. Can't lose to Tulsa, temple Houston or ucf

 

[Jerry1714]

I mean this nicely: you are clueless. 22-9 and we're in playing the tournament for seating. We don't need to beat Cincinnati or smu at all to be in. We can't have a bad loss. Can't lose to Tulsa, temple Houston or ucf

At 22-9 we will have have an RPI of 42 so I would not recommend losing game 1 of the AAC or it will get really sweaty on Selection Sunday.

 

[CTBasketball]

I mean this nicely: you are clueless. 22-9 and we're in playing the tournament for seating. We don't need to beat Cincinnati or smu at all to be in. We can't have a bad loss. Can't lose to Tulsa, temple Houston or ucf

I think if we're playing for seating, we should contact Ater Majok he has a few extra chairs.

 

[JimHurley]

22 wins and AT LEAST one win in AAC tourney. That'd put us at 23-10 and most likely in. If we get to 24 wins, I think we're almost a lock.

 

[3rdbass]

I mean this nicely: you are clueless. 22-9 and we're in playing the tournament for seating. We don't need to beat Cincinnati or smu at all to be in. We can't have a bad loss. Can't lose to Tulsa, temple Houston or ucf

You must of misread what I said. If we have 11'losses we are going to be sweating and most likely not make it. I never said we don't get in with 9 losses. I said if we have 11 losses the only way we get in is with a couple big wins against smu twice or cincy and smu once.

 

[pepband99]

Updated today:

Connecticut [19-7 (9-4), RPI: 36, SOS: 42] Nice as Saturday's two-point holdout against Tulsa was, Thursday -- when the Huskies beat SMU 68-62 -- was the biggest night UConn has had in conference play by far. On Dec. 29, Kevin Ollie's team knocked off Texas in Austin, and no one realized at the time how valuable that win would become. Even as UT helpfully rose through the Big 12 ranks, and even as Ollie's team continued to improve on the defensive end, the highest reaches of its resume were limited to Texas and Texas alone. Thursday changed that in a significant fashion. If Connecticut can get out of Cincinnati with a season split on Saturday, we'll start feeling pretty safe about its eventual spot in the NCAA tournament -- particularly with another crack at SMU (March 3) still on the docket.

 

[TasteofUConn]

Connecticut [19-7 (9-4), RPI: 36, SOS: 42] Nice as Saturday's two-point holdout against Tulsa was . . . .still on the docket.

That was painful to read.

 

[JimHurley]

If we win tomorrow, barring a complete collapse, we should be all set. Big one tomorrow vs. Cincinnati.

 

[storrs15]

Connecticut (18–7) at Cincinnati (19–7)
Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN2

The Huskies are just barely on the right side of the bubble, while the Bearcats are just barely outside. Cincinnati won the first meeting between these teams in Storrs, but UConn has the superior résumé outside that game. The Bearcats could negate that advantage with a season sweep.


Cincinnati now: 9-5
UConn: L
ECU: W
Houston: W
Vs. SMU: L
Final 11-7 #who knows In AAC

UConn now: 9-4
@ Cincinatti: W
South Florida: W
Houston: W
@ SMU: L
UCF: W
Final 13-5 #2 in AAC

Or

Cincinnati now: current 9-5
UConn: W
ECU: W
Houston: W
Vs. SMU: L
Final 12-6 #3

UConn now: Current 9-4
@ Cincinatti: L
South Florida: W
Houston: W
@ SMU: L
UCF: W
Final 12-7 #2 in AAC (UConn wins tie breaker due to head to head w/ SMU)

That win last night pretty much wrapped up 2nd in the AAC. A win Saturday doesn't guarantee anything but it really puts uconn in the drivers seat. And obviously winning saturday and at SMU, barring disaster, is almost a lock. Though that is a whole other feat. A loss Saturday probably puts UConn at a point where they play Cinci in the semifinals of the AAC which will end up be somewhat of a play-in game for the tournament.

 

[gtcam]

If no WTF losses - UConn is all set - even if they lose to Cincy and SMU - they needed to beat Cincy if lost to SMU, now its not that dire
BUT they should still beat Cincy

 

[Peacefrog]

Connecticut (18–7) at Cincinnati (19–7)
Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN2

The Huskies are just barely on the right side of the bubble, while the Bearcats are just barely outside. Cincinnati won the first meeting between these teams in Storrs, but UConn has the superior résumé outside that game. The Bearcats could negate that advantage with a season sweep.


Cincinnati now: 9-5
UConn: L
ECU: W
Houston: W
Vs. SMU: L
Final 11-7 #who knows In AAC

UConn now: 9-4
@ Cincinatti: W
South Florida: W
Houston: W
@ SMU: L
UCF: W
Final 13-5 #2 in AAC

Or

Cincinnati now: current 9-5
UConn: W
ECU: W
Houston: W
Vs. SMU: L
Final 12-6 #3

UConn now: Current 9-4
@ Cincinatti: L
South Florida: W
Houston: W
@ SMU: L
UCF: W
Final 12-7 #2 in AAC (UConn wins tie breaker due to head to head w/ SMU)

That win last night pretty much wrapped up 2nd in the AAC. A win Saturday doesn't guarantee anything but it really puts uconn in the drivers seat. And obviously winning saturday and at SMU, barring disaster, is almost a lock. Though that is a whole other feat. A loss Saturday probably puts UConn at a point where they play Cinci in the semifinals of the AAC which will end up be somewhat of a play-in game for the tournament.

Are you sure? Wouldn't the first tie-breaker be head-to-head results? In your second scenario we will have lost both games with Cincy and they would own the tie breaker bumping us to the third seed.

I'm not taking the home game against Houston for granted either. We can't phone that one in.

 

[storrs15]

Obviously winning out makes them golden. Basic summary: Tomorrow isnt a must win but if they dont win they need to snag 1 out of the upcoming SMU/High AAC Tournament seed (which will either be Cincinnati or theyll beat a Memphis kind of team then end up having to play Temple.) They probably need to snag one of those games to lock

 

[storrs15]

Are you sure? Wouldn't the first tie-breaker be head-to-head results? In your second scenario we will have lost both games with Cincy and they would own the tie breaker bumping us to the third seed.

I'm not taking the home game against Houston for granted either. We can't phone that one in.

Damn true. Knew there had to be one mistake in there. Its a huge opportunity tomorrow but not a must win after last nights win.

And Houston is a should win game. 1 PM on a Sunday in Storrs, high energy. Though youre right, its not guaranteed

 

[King Jonathan]

I agree with Larry Brown - AAC is one of the most underrated conferences. In 2014, we took out 3 prohibitive favorites for the NC, and did not even have a great season in the AAC. Louisville had the regular season and tourney championship, and only was a four seed. I think perception is everything and the AAC should have held onto the Big East name

 

[auror]

I agree with Larry Brown - AAC is one of the most underrated conferences. In 2014, we took out 3 prohibitive favorites for the NC, and did not even have a great season in the AAC. Louisville had the regular season and tourney championship, and only was a four seed. I think perception is everything and the AAC should have held onto the Big East name

How'd the AAC do in the tournament last year?

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Connecticut (18–7) at Cincinnati (19–7)
Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN2

The Huskies are just barely on the right side of the bubble, while the Bearcats are just barely outside. Cincinnati won the first meeting between these teams in Storrs, but UConn has the superior résumé outside that game. The Bearcats could negate that advantage with a season sweep.

Just barely on the right side of the bubble??? Man I don't think people are really grasping the concept of how weak the NCAA field is this season. With our resume, we are squarely in the tournament and not even close to the bubble.

 

[King Jonathan]

How'd the AAC do in the tournament last year?

Only 2 teams made the tourney - (1-2 record)
SMU was the conference champ, and conference tourney champ. Record was 27-6. (better than all 6,5, some 4 seeds) But only had a 6 seed and was widely seen as being robbed vs UCLA in first round.
Cincinnati was an 8 seed and placed on path of prohibitive favorite Kentucky on second round.

Was a down year too

 

[auror]

Only 2 teams made the tourney - (1-2 record)
SMU was the conference champ, and conference tourney champ. Record was 27-6. (better than all 6,5, some 4 seeds) But only had a 6 seed and was widely seen as being robbed vs UCLA in first round.
Cincinnati was an 8 seed and placed on path of prohibitive favorite Kentucky on second round.

Was a down year too

Love the spin on SMU losing in first round. Goaltending was definitely an issue, but it was against an 11 seed that most bracketologists didn't even think should make the field. If you make the case the conference is being underrated, the best team can't lose to a fringe team. SMU should have been a 4, well UCLA should have been a 13. The conference teams (other than UConn) should be overperforming their seeds if they're being underseeded.

 

[huskiesnyc]

According to rpiforecast.com. The middle number is the expected RPI. Even if we go 3-2 down the stretch we would have an RPI of 34. Last night was HUGE.

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
24-7 23.2 8.72%
23-8 27.7 35.17%
22-9 34.7 42.85%
21-10 48.1 12.10%
20-11 60.7 1.14%
19-12 71.0 0.01%

 

[Jerry1714]

According to rpiforecast.com. The middle number is the expected RPI. Even if we go 3-2 down the stretch we would have an RPI of 34. Last night was HUGE.

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
24-7 23.2 8.72%
23-8 27.7 35.17%
22-9 34.7 42.85%
21-10 48.1 12.10%
20-11 60.7 1.14%
19-12 71.0 0.01%

Finish 3-2 do not blow round 1 of the AAC tournament, go to the NCAAT

 

[champs99and04]

Hopefully we win tomorrow and we can start using this thread to talk about other teams. Like Pittsburgh.

 

[caw]

Hopefully we win tomorrow and we can start using this thread to talk about other teams. Like Pittsburgh.

Pitt Cuse tomorrow has some interesting implications. PC Hall does also. Actually quite a few games this weekend that could change where teams stand overall. The group from 7 seed to out is really bunched.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Love the spin on SMU losing in first round. Goaltending was definitely an issue, but it was against an 11 seed that most bracketologists didn't even think should make the field. If you make the case the conference is being underrated, the best team can't lose to a fringe team. SMU should have been a 4, well UCLA should have been a 13. The conference teams (other than UConn) should be overperforming their seeds if they're being underseeded.

Didn't that fringe team also win their next game advancing to the the sweet sixteen.
SMU was jobbed and most likely at a minimum would of gotten to the sweet sixteen