Bubble Watch....

[Hi-Low]

American Athletic Conference
Work left to do: Cincinnati, Connecticut
Cincinnati [16-6 (6-3), RPI: 54, SOS: 88] -- and you realize that four of Cincinnati's six losses (to Iowa State, Butler, SMU and Temple) have all come by a final margin of two points apiece. The RPI may not factor in margin of victory or defeat, but hopefully someone on the committee recognizes that the Bearcats' losses are as much about randomness and coin flips as any inherent inability to close out close games.

Connecticut [15-6 (5-3), RPI: 55, SOS: 73] It's February, so let's talk about what the Huskies actually are: a decent team with a not-so-decent RPI, two noteworthy wins (vs. Michigan, at Texas), zero egregious losses, a 5-3 record in the American, a blown opportunity (thanks mostly to a paper-tossing Ollie technical) to beat Maryland on a neutral floor, and lots of work to do.

He fails to mention 4 of UConn's 6 losses were also very close...3, 3, 2, 1 (Cuse, Zaga, Temple, Cincy),....avg margin of loss 2.25 points.....hope the committee takes notice of that as well.

Otherwise he's right, a decent team with work to do....could be a very good team if we finish season well.

 

[Jerry1714]

American Athletic Conference
Work left to do: Cincinnati, Connecticut
Cincinnati [16-6 (6-3), RPI: 54, SOS: 88] -- and you realize that four of Cincinnati's six losses (to Iowa State, Butler, SMU and Temple) have all come by a final margin of two points apiece. The RPI may not factor in margin of victory or defeat, but hopefully someone on the committee recognizes that the Bearcats' losses are as much about randomness and coin flips as any inherent inability to close out close games.

Connecticut [15-6 (5-3), RPI: 55, SOS: 73] It's February, so let's talk about what the Huskies actually are: a decent team with a not-so-decent RPI, two noteworthy wins (vs. Michigan, at Texas), zero egregious losses, a 5-3 record in the American, a blown opportunity (thanks mostly to a paper-tossing Ollie technical) to beat Maryland on a neutral floor, and lots of work to do.

He fails to mention 4 of UConn's 6 losses were also very close...3, 3, 2, 1 (Cuse, Zaga, Temple, Cincy),....avg margin of loss 2.25 points.....hope the committee takes notice of that as well.

Otherwise he's right, a decent team with work to do....could be a very good team if we finish season well.

Do not think the committee looks at margin of losses, or victory for that matter, but they will take into account Brimah's absence.

I enjoyed the write up calling out Huskies fans emailing about how they were improperly ranked to start the year (probably cited the nonsensical argument that it was because ESPN hates UConn) yet here we are.

Also, this team included on the bubble is funny: Arizona State [12-10 (2-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 13]

 

[Leebo]

Yeah, I mean, close losses matter when considering the future potential of a team, because it means they're always there at the end, but you don't get credit for them. Like, 5 close losses doesn't equal 1 win or something like that.

EDIT: Ah, I hadn't read the Cincy blurb. Yeah, no, that's silly, you don't get credit for lots of close losses.

 

[Silk31]

Do not think the committee looks at margin of losses, or victory for that matter, but they will take into account Brimah's absence.

People forget about this but the committee will absolutely take this into account. It doesn't give us a pass for the losses we suffered during his absence but it softens the blow a bit.

Weathering the storm without the best shot blocker in the nation should have been seen as a mini win, after all life without Amida could have been a lot worse

 

[1999.2004.2011]

UConn Key Metrics (Morning of 2/2/16):
KenPom: 26th
ESPN BPI: 30th
ESPN RPI: 55th

 

[Dogdeacon]

Pure spin, I don't see how UConn is that different than Dook at the moment.

That said from a Husky fans perspective he's right that we had high expectations and the team has either not performed to its perceived talent level or the talent level isn't there. TBD, but wish it was more about basketball than perceptions of fans/records.

 

[KemBuckets21]

When I read that article, it seemed a bit pessimistic to me. Did anyone else get that sense? I particularly like the part where he basically said that uconn fans overrated our team...

 

[Inyatkin]

UConn Key Metrics (Morning of 2/2/16):
KenPom: 26th
ESPN BPI: 30th
ESPN RPI: 55th

And by KenPom's luck rating we're down to 316. The only team ranked above us that's been less lucky is, interestingly, Duke.

 

[WisePig]

UConn has games left against SMU x2, Cinci, Memphis and Temple. They also have a great chance of winning the AAC conference tournament. If they deserve to be in the tournament they have plenty of chances to prove it.

I think the pieces that make up the current roster are a tournament team with a chance to go deep if the offense continues to improve. This is the type of year that a team like UConn could get hot, win the conference tournament and make a run through the NCAAs. There are no real dominant teams this year. The NCAA tournament will be crazy this year with an insane number of upsets.

 

[aceboon]

lol @ still blaming KO's tech for that MD loss, as if we haven't seen this group come up short in that type of scenario/game for almost 2 seasons now. who wrote this?

 

[tcf15]

lol @ still blaming KO's tech for that MD loss, as if we haven't seen this group come up short in that type of scenario/game for almost 2 seasons now. who wrote this?

Pretty sure it was Eamon Brennan.

 

[Ts5034]

If only Ohio St was able to pick up a nice win or 2 in the B1G, that would help our SOS. They blew an opportunity vs Maryland at home but they still have their 2 games with MSU, and Iowa at home. But, at this point, we control our own destiny. If we are in the NIT when its all said and done, its because we couldnt take care of business in the AAC in February.

 

[BobbySteels]

It's hard after a heart-wrenching loss like Cinci, but with the opportunities left, SMU being ineligible, and having Brimah back, I am fully confident this team will be dancing in March. Obviously, you'd like to be in a better position, but I think they're in a solid place and perhaps exactly where KO expected the Huskies to be at the start of the season; improving as March nears. Now with a healthy Brimah and the D already playing LOCK up we should become much more cohesive and our half-court offense/execution will vastly improve.

 

[dwalks93]

Being in the AAC really hurts UConn...there is a reason Arizona St is 12-7 with 2-7 in conference play and is listed as on the bubble. There is a P5 bump which UConn will need to overcome. Nothing UConn can do about it other than do what UConn always does, win. That said UConn is exactly where it should want to be...in control if its own destiny. AB is finally back and hopefully Dham will be returning to form. All season I've felt like UConn seemed a little demotivated and, at times, uninspired. It is time to see what this team is made of...if UConn handles their business they are in.

I just like UConn's energy when AB is in the lineup...I think UConn's best games are ahead it.

 

[imno1]

lol @ still blaming KO's tech for that MD loss, as if we haven't seen this group come up short in that type of scenario/game for almost 2 seasons now. who wrote this?

If you are going to site an example of a blown opportunity it should be the Cincinnati game.

 

[DogMania]

Do not think the committee looks at margin of losses, or victory for that matter, but they will take into account Brimah's absence.

I enjoyed the write up calling out Huskies fans emailing about how they were improperly ranked to start the year (probably cited the nonsensical argument that it was because ESPN hates UConn) yet here we are.

Also, this team included on the bubble is funny: Arizona State [12-10 (2-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 13]

You make a good point. If we can finish strong and UConn gets enough national play and attention that points to Brimah as a strong reason for a strong finish, that could be the factor that gets us in over other programs with a similar resume. Now if we keep on losing games like we did against Temple(by 2), Cinci (1) , etc., we could find ourselves off the bubble. How many teams will they take from the AAC? If we finish 3rd, 4th or worse in the league...well you get the picture.

Bottom line. Finish strong plus having Brimah back as a big perceived reason for such, we might be on the right side of the bubble.

 

[aceboon]

If you are going to site an example of a blown opportunity it should be the Cincinnati game.

Yes, had that game in their grasp and gave it away, you can even point to a lesser extent Temple. A win vs Temple doesn't really do anything for them but it doesn't kill them like the loss could end up doing, and we would feel a million times better about this team if they were 17-4, gotta protect homecourt. I never for one second believed they were going to pull that comeback against MD off, the technical just added to the final score.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

When I read that article, it seemed a bit pessimistic to me. Did anyone else get that sense? I particularly like the part where he basically said that uconn fans overrated our team...

UConn fans did overrate them, I don't see how you can argue with that.

 

[Peacefrog]

It's hard after a heart-wrenching loss like Cinci, but with the opportunities left, SMU being ineligible, and having Brimah back, I am fully confident this team will be dancing in March. Obviously, you'd like to be in a better position, but I think they're in a solid place and perhaps exactly where KO expected the Huskies to be at the start of the season; improving as March nears. Now with a healthy Brimah and the D already playing LOCK up we should become much more cohesive and our half-court offense/execution will vastly improve.

I guess I'm a bit less sanguine about the defense. There are many here who analyze this kind of stuff much more closely than I, but it hasn't struck me that we have necessarily been playing great defense. Certainly we haven't been allowing many points but has it been because of our defense or the opponent's offense? A serious question as I don't get to watch most of the games. I did see the UCF game and noted as the game went on how many good looks UCF seemed to get but simply bricked the shots.

 

[champs99and04]

I never for one second believed they were going to pull that comeback against MD off, the technical just added to the final score.

The Maryland game was really the only game all season where I at no point thought they were going to win. Of all the losses, that's probably the last one you'd classify as a missed opportunity (though I get the point, which is that beating Maryland would have been a signature win).

Aside from the two home losses, the game that sticks in my craw is the Tulsa game. They basically gave us every opportunity to put them away and we didn't.

 

[BFieldHusky]

The Maryland game was really the only game all season where I at no point thought they were going to win. Of all the losses, that's probably the last one you'd classify as a missed opportunity (though I get the point, which is that beating Maryland would have been a signature win).

Aside from the two home losses, the game that sticks in my craw is the Tulsa game. They basically gave us every opportunity to put them away and we didn't.

Cincy gave us plenty of opportunities as well...

 

[Jerry1714]

I guess I'm a bit less sanguine about the defense. There are many here who analyze this kind of stuff much more closely than I, but it hasn't struck me that we have necessarily been playing great defense. Certainly we haven't been allowing many points but has it been because of our defense or the opponent's offense? A serious question as I don't get to watch most of the games. I did see the UCF game and noted as the game went on how many good looks UCF seemed to get but simply bricked the shots.

Our defensive efficiency ranking is currently #5 in the country. This takes into account the efficiency of the opponents offense as well, so it is not a stat that you could say is off basis because our opponents stink.

 

[caw]

UConn fans did overrate them, I don't see how you can argue with that.

I'm not sure what people as a whole thought UConns record would be right now? 18-3, 17-4? I think the argument to be made is that with Brimah UConn is either a plus 1 or plus 2 from its current record. Either 17-4 or 16-5 with a sliver of a shot at 18-3. I think he is worth the difference at home against at least one of Temple and Cincy and maybe both. 17-4 would probably have UConn in the top 30 RPI and top 25 overall. We shall see how the rest of the year plays out with him in the lineup.

 

[intlzncster]

Is SMU eligible for the AAC tournament?

 

[tcf15]

Is SMU eligible for the AAC tournament?

Nope. 2nd place gets the #1 seed